FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

November 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Tonight’s matchup between the Titans and Steelers doesn’t have too many hot takes, but it does offer some intrigue with potentially some new faces on the field. While the Steelers starting quarterback Kenny Pickett has a chance to play, the Titans will be rolling the dice with rookie quarterback Will Levis.

Levis is coming off a phenomenal debut last Sunday, when he completed 65.5% of his passes for 238 yards and touchdowns. With the short week and limited film study time available, I don’t see the Steelers defense being able to throw a lot of exotic looks or too much at the rook. We could see another strong performance against the league's 24th ranked pass defense.

MY DFS STACK PLAY

(QB-Will Levis and WR-DeAndre Hopkins)

Levis is coming off a strong performance where he hooked up with his primary receiving weapon, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The two were highly efficient and explosive in Week 8, connecting on 4 of 6 passes for 128 yards and three scores. This connection seems like a lock tonight against a suspect secondary that has been had by Jaguars wide receivers Calvin Ridley & Christina Kirk in Week 8 (10 receptions/129 yards receiving), Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua in week 7 (8 receptions/154 yards receiving), and Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers in Week 6 (6 receptions/50 yards receiving/1 touchdown).

I can see many entrants running with this stack tonight, so a possible change of direction to consider would be the Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. He was second on the team last week with 5 targets and could be effective tonight against the Steelers defense that surrendered 11 receptions to the tight end last week.

Looking to go against the grain, consider the Steelers Najee Harris tonight, but temper expectations. In two of their last three games the Titans defense has allowed 100 or more yards rushing..

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

I won’t pretend to be a prophet or have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling tonight’s matchup could lean heavily one way. The Bills are coming off a disappointing Week 7 loss to the Patriots and with some home cooking on a Thursday, this may be just what they need to bounce back. With three straight games with a pick, Josh Allen will be looking to turn that page.

On the other side, the Buccaneers also suffered a Week 7 home loss to the Falcons, but a road tilt against the Bills may not be timely. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has remained middle of the pack as the fantasy QB17 much of this season, but he is coming off one of his better showings from a week ago. He will have his work cut out for him tonight against a hostile Bills crowd.

Here are my favorites for tonight;

Josh Allen (Bills-QB) Of course everything starts with the Bills signal caller. All things go through Allen and a big night I am predicting for the fantasy QB1. Allen squares off against a Bucs defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Allen should account for at least two scores tonight.

Latavius (Bill-RB) This one feels like one of those games where the Bills will move the ball well and set up a couple of goalline opportunities. I expect to see Bills running back James Cook to have success between the 20’s, setting up an opportunity or two for Murry to vulture a score tonight. Murray is on my DFS radar in this one.

Stefon Diggs (Bills-WR) It’s been the Allen-to-Diggs show this season and with a primetime matchup on the slate for Week 8, it should be more of the same. Diggs (fantasy WR2) is the second most targeted wide receiver in the NFL this season, so it should be business as usual for this duo. Diggs baseline is six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. He’s a lock to put up similar numbers tonight.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers-WR) The Bills secondary of late has proven to be a little shaky. Evans (fantasy WR14), with his size, will be a matchup nightmare, especially in the Red Zone. Evans is averaging 9 targets per game over his last two outings, so he should see a steady diet of looks in this one.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills-TE) Coming off his best game and fantasy showing this season, the Bills rookie tight end will look to build off this momentum tonight. With veteran tight end Dawson Know already shelved, Kincaid could see an increased role tonight that pays dividends for fantasy owners.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Tonight’s matchup between the Saints and Jaguars may lack the same fireworks appeal as the Sunday Night showdown between the Dolphins and Eagles, but it will have plenty of fantasy relevance. With stars like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Calvin Ridley headlining tonight’s showcase, there should be enough action to keep fantasy managers interested. 

Ones to Watch

The Jaguars starting running rack Travis Etienne Jr (fantasy RB3 the past three weeks) has been rolling of late, averaging 113 yards of offense and better than a touchdown over his last three games. The Saints rookie receiver Rashid Shaheed scored his second touchdown of the season this past Sunday and has been targeted 15 times in his last three games.

For the DFS play tonight, I have some favorites.

Alvin Kamara (Saint-RB) Kamara has been heavily targeted (25 targets) since week 4, when he returned from his three-game suspension. The Saints ball-carrier has yet to break out, but the heavy volume (25 touches per game this season) and fantasy production is there. It’s just a matter of time before Kamara has a blow up game. He’s my favorite in this one tonight.

Derek Carr (Saints-QB) The Jaguars have a pretty good defense, so it could be tough sledding for Carr and company tonight. The Saints signal caller is now a few weeks removed from his shoulder injury and each week he’s seeming to play a little better. Last week Carr passed for 353 yards passing 50 times. He may not quite get to 50 in this one, but he could have some great success with Kamara out of the backfield and his favorite target in the mid-range, Chris Olave.

Chris Olave (Saints-WR) The Saints top receiving option is coming off a 10-target, 7 reception showing in Week 6. After a fast start this season (32 targets in three games), Olave seemed to have cooled down when his quarterback went down. With Carr now appearing healthy again, fantasy managers can expect to see more of the early season Olave going forward. He’s in for a busy night.

Christian Kirk (Jaguars-WR) After a quiet opening Sunday recording just one catch for 9 yards receiving, Kirk has been the model of consistency for the Jaguars. In his last 5 games he’s had at least 6 targets and recorded at least 6 receptions or scored a touchdown. He’s averaging over 16 fantasy points per game during this stretch and is the fantasy WR15. He’s a safe play in this matchup tonight.

Evan Engram (Jaguars-TE) Just like Kirk, the Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been Mr. Consistent. This season he’s scored in double digit fantasy points in 4 of 6 games, only once has he scored less than 9.9 fantasy points, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in 5 of his 6 games. Engram is the fantasy TE6 this season and while on paper the matchup against the Saints defense (ranked 7th vs tight ends) looks tough, in week 6 the Texans were able to enjoy success going to the tight end position. I’d expect the usual numbers from Engram in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

We are now into the fall season, and this is the time of year for witches, ghosts, goblins, and all things scary. Well, if you are the Denver Broncos heading into tonight’s matchup with the Chiefs, you have plenty to be scared about.

Through the first five weeks of the season, it’s been a disaster out of the gate for head coach Sean Payton and company. The Broncos are reeling at 1-4 and their defense has looked worse than flat, they’ve been bottom of the barrel awful (ranked dead last this season). The Broncos defense has not only allowed the most total yards this season, but they have also allowed the most points. If there ever was a cure to get this ship turned around for Broncos, facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead is not it.

Patrick Mahomes just may be the Jason Voorhees (Friday the 13th reference) the Broncos would love to avoid. The Chiefs offense has yet to really look like it’s normal dominant self, but a matchup with the league’s worst defense could quickly remedy this. If it’s sound like, avoid the Broncos tonight and roll out all of the Chiefs players, that may just be about the soundest advice anyone associated with fantasy football could offer.

The game still has to be played, so I’ll offer my thoughts on tonight’s best matchup and add this little nugget to the fray. It is true what they say about the NFL, Any Given Sunday. But tonight’s matchup in Arrowhead will be played on Thursday night.

Thursday's (DFS) Take Five;

1.  Isaiah Pacheco (RB) - The Chiefs running back should be poised for a big night against the league’s worst run defense. Since week 2 the Broncos run defense has been in the bottom for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs in three of the four games. With the tight end Travis Kelce possibly slowed with a bum ankle, Pacheco coming on strong the last three weeks, the Chiefs will likely feature their running game early. I, as I am sure many do, like Pacheco a lot in this one. He runs violently and strong and will surely break several tackles, maybe even break loose for a long run or two. (DK-My Captain)

2.Patrick Mahomes (QB) - The Chiefs quarterback has typically had great success against the Broncos in the win-loss columns, even when his numbers have not been the best. This season Mahomes numbers seem a little down, but a matchup with the Broncos may be just what he needs to get his numbers back the normal Mahomes tier. Last season in week 17 Mahomes torched the Broncos for 328 yards passing and three touchdown passes. I would not be surprised to see similar numbers on Thursday night. 

3. Rashee Rice (WR) - The Chiefs rookie wide receiver has been the team’s most consistent over the past couple of weeks. With Kelce ailing, even if he goes, more opportunities for Rice could open up on Thursday night. He’ll offer some great value in DFS with some true potential for a big game.

4. Chiefs Defense (DST) - There is no question after what we’ve seen from the Chiefs and Broncos this season, it’s pretty easy to predict the likelihood of this contest. The Chiefs will score early, build a lead, then turn the hounds loose. I wouldn’t expect a dominant performance, the Broncos should be able to post a couple of scores, but trailing big, the O-line will surrender 3-4 sacks and the Chiefs defense will force a turnover or two.

5. Marvin Mims Jr (WR) - The Broncos rookie wide receiver can’t seem to break-through in the rotation averaging just 28% of the snaps this season. He’s not only behind the starters Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but he’s well behind Brandon Johnson (49%) as well. The offense has had its ups and downs this season and now the team faces a monumental task when they face Mahomes and company. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense desperately need a spark and Mims Jr could be the ignition needed. He’s had a couple of big plays this season and that’s something the Broncos will really need on Thursday night. He’ll offer great value and could be the catalyst for the Broncos to put points on the board.

The Broncos have activated tight end Greg Dulcich. If the Broncos are going to have any success tonight quarterback Russell Wilson will need to find his tight end. Dulcich could be a low value sleeper pick tonight in DFS.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It may not be one of the marquee matchups of the NFL Thursday Night lineup, but this meeting between the Bears and Commanders will carry a bit of fantasy cache for owners. There are still plenty of fantasy favorites involved in this one and there is just enough lack of defense for this to be interesting.

The Commanders up front on the defensive side and going to have their hands full trying to contain the Bears quarterback Justin Fields. On the other side, after seeing how the Broncos were able to pass on the Bears secondary last week, the Commanders receivers could find great success. 

Neither defense has been stellar this season against the run, the Bears are ranked 18th while the Commanders are ranked 21st. While the Bears are ranked 8th in yards per carry average, the Commanders have struggled here ranked 26th, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Commanders backfield may struggle to find holes in the ground attack, but Khalil Herbert and company could enjoy a little running room.

With all of these keys to consider, here are the Five I will drive with, on Thursday Night,.

Thursday's Take Five;

1. Sam Howell (QB) - The Commanders quarterback is coming off strong showing last week against a pretty good Eagles defense and should be able to enjoy similar success tonight against the Bears 27th ranked pass defense. Howell has been a borderline QB-1 (12-team formats) in three of his four starts this season. The Bears allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, so the prospect of number four tonight looks good.

2. Terry McLaurin (WR) - Although his numbers may be slightly down through four weeks, the Commanders receiver is still one of the league’s best. Opposing receivers have had success finding the endzone against the Bears defense. McLaurin leads the team with 26 targets and 21 receptions (an 80.8% success rate). He’ll be featured tonight and should have success. (DK-My Captain)

3. Commanders (DST) - The Commanders defense is pretty good, but they have not played all that well this season. While the Bears offense is coming off a strong showing against the Broncos last week, it was the Broncos defense. The Commanders are in the top 3rd with 13 sacks, 29 QB hits, and 84 completions allowed this season and could give Fields trouble in the pocket. The defense also ranks 1st this season with 27 tackles for loss.

4. Justin Fields (QB) - It sounds like it could be a long day for Fields, but it just might be the opposite. With the troubles the Bears could have throwing the ball, look for Fields to exploit the defense with his legs. The Commanders have surrendered the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Expect Fields to do some damage on the ground and possibly visit the end zone.

5. Cole Kmet (TE) - The Bears tight end is tied for the team lead with 24 targets. He is easily one of Fields' favorites and dependable targets. He’s coming off a big game last week where he scored twice against the Broncos and some of that momentum could carry into tonight. I like Cole to find pay dirt in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

Tonight’s matchup offers a lot of interesting perspectives, the possible return of running back Aaron Jones, the debut of wide receiver Christian Watson and the arrival of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Regardless of whichever you might find most intriguing, all of them will have some kind of fantasy impact in tonight’s matchup.

Aaron Jones looked dynamic and explosive in week one, but a bum hammy has had him sitting out the team’s last two games. If he’s 100% and ready to roll, he could feast in this matchup against the Lions defense (ranked 25th in passing vs RBs).

Christian Watson is slated to make his debut and if he’s good to go, he could add the explosiveness and deep threat the Packers offense is missing. With 7 passing touchdowns (ranked T3rd) this season, the addition of Watson will only give quarterback Jordan Love more options to beat a defense ranked 17th vs opposing QBs.

LaPorta has been terrific this season, currently the No.2 fantasy tight end. His 22 targets ranks second among tight ends while his 18 receptions also ranks tied for 2nd. He’ll easily be a featured target in this one and could be in for a big night.

These would be just a few of the storylines in this one and with that said, these are my favorite plays for DFS.

Thursday’s Take Five;

1. Jordan Love (QB) - I have to play the hot hand. Love has 8 total touchdowns this season, 7 pass, 1 run, tied with Tua Tagovailoa and second to Kirk Cousins 9. He gets a couple of big weapons back in Jones and Christian Watson and with the strong play of receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, I feel very strong about this play. (DK-My Captain)

2.Jahmyr Gibbs (QB) - The Lions rookie runner should be busy in the pass game out of the backfield, an area where the Packers have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Gibbs should also handle a fair share of the ground work, especially if Montgomery sits or is less than 100%.

3. Romeo Doubs (WR) - I believe the Lions secondary numbers are a bit skewed. We’ve seen the receiving situation in Kansas City and last week the Falcons receivers were awful. The Packers don’t have the likes of Adams, but with the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson and the recent play of Doubs and rookie receiver Jayden Reed, the Pack should have success airing it out. Doubs is tied with Reed for the team lead in targets with 20 and is tied with the rookie tied Luke Musgrave with 11 receptions. Doubs should see plenty of work and should benefit with the presence of Watson on the field.

4. Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions leading receiver has been consistent all three weeks, injury or not. He’s averaging 9+ targets per game and has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark, twice in three games. I can’t see him not delivering tonight. He should see a steady diet of targets throughout the evening and will certainly post his standard 6 for 80. And I’d say he’s due to find pay dirt in this one as well. 

5.Sam LaPorta (TE) - The Lions rookie tight end has been gold for fantasy owners through the first three weeks. He ranks second in targets (22), tied for second in receptions (18), and is the fantasy TE3. Just like St.Brown, the rookie should be a focal point in the Lion’s passing attack and could have a busy night.

A notable consideration for tonight’s matchup has to be the Packers rookie tight Musgrave. I believe the return of Jones and Watson tonight will cut into his workload in the air, but the kid should be an effective option in the red zone with his 6-foot, 6-inch frame.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

This one is definitely not a Clash of the Titans, with the New York Giants hobbling into the bay area to square off with the Niners. The G-men will be without their lead-running back Saquon Barkley (ankle injury), who has already been ruled out.

In my best estimation for fantasy purposes, this matchup has a strong possibility for the following, a strong performance from the Niners offense and a lot of garbage time yardage for running back Matt Breida and tight end Darren Waller. The only question could be how long will they remain in this affair before they get pulled.

Like most, I like Christian McCaffrey because he figures to be involved early and often, but I also believe the Niners will attack the Giants defense utilizing several of their other weapons. Quarterback Brock Purdy should be solid and I like him to hook up with several of his favorites tonight.

My Fantasy Five for Thursday night;

1.49ers Defense (DST) - The Giants come into this matchup wounded and without their best player, running back Saquon Barkley. It could spell for a long night for quarterback Daniel Jones and offense. The Niners defense will look to get after Jones in this one and could post a number of sacks and even create a turnover or two. (DK-My Captain)

2.Brock Purdy (QB) - The Niners quarterback could be in for a big night. Even with one of his favorites (Brandon Aiyuk) possibly sidelined in this contest, he has more than enough fireworks to work with. If Aiyuk sits, expect Brock to spread the ball around to his backs and tight end.

3. Christian McCaffrey (RB) - The Niners running back figures to be a big part of the offense tonight, but if Aiyuk is out expect CMC to help pick up the slack in the passing game. This matchup looks like a good one for a score or possibly two.

4. Darren Waller (TE) - The Giants tight end looked healthy last week turning in his best game of the young season with 6 catches for 76 yards on 8 targets. With Barkley OUT for this one tonight, you have to believe Jones and company will make Waller a focal point of the pass game.  . 

5.George Kittle (TE) - The Niners tight end could see his workload in the passing game increased tonight in the possible absence of Aiyuk. Kittle has only 6 receptions for 49 yards receiving through two weeks, ranking as fantasy TE26. I like his chances for a productive night.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 14th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It looks like the NFL got this one right with this Week 2 meeting between the Eagles and Vikings. The Vegas line has the over/under at 49.5, so the good news for fantasy owners is the expectation is an old fashion western shootout at the O.K Corral.

Both teams enter this matchup loaded with offensive weapons on both sides and according to Vegas we should see a lot of them. The Eagles defense ranks 29th against the pass, so expect a lot of Jefferson and Hockenson on the Vikes side. 

While the Vikes defense had much better numbers than Philly in week 1 on defense, Hurts and company may prove to be too much. Looking to Thursday night, I have some (DFS) favorites in play.

My Fantasy Five for Thursday Night Football;

1.Jalen Hurts (QB) - We’ll see some vintage Hurts in this one. He should give us a little bit of everything, passing and rushing. I would count on at least three scores, including one rushing. (DK-My Captain)

2.DeVonta Smith (WR) - The Eagles receiver is hardly a number two, but more like a 1B. Smith, like his teammate AJ Brown also registered 10 targets in week 1. He’ll be a key piece in this one and a strong DFS play.

3.TJ Hockenson (TE) - The Eagles had trouble (ranked last) with the tight end in week one and Hockenson is one of the best in fantasy and the NFL. Hockenson collected 8 passes in week one and could very easily duplicate his numbers on Thursday.

4.Justin Jefferson (WR) - The Eagles secondary struggled in week one against the Patriots. With Jefferson coming to town on Thursday night, it could be a long night for the Eagles defense. 

5.D’Andre Swift (RB) - Swift did not see a lot of usage in week 1, but with Kenneth Gainwell ruled out, he could be in line as the lead back and see plenty of work here. Swift is a risky play here, but I believe in the talent; it rises to the top. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID' DAILY DIGEST

October 26th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's never just about the matchup, but it's always about the game. Maybe tonight's contest isn't a battle between two Titans, but it can still offer a lot of excitement, thrills, and surprises; at least we can hope for it. It's Thursday night, what else are you going to do? Just sit back, enjoy the NFL action and hope we didn't jsut waste three hours of our lives.

"Tonight's matchup could be the snoozefest of the season, both offenses rank among worst; BAL-31, Mia-32" by @FantsySprtsHome

Then again, we thought that was the case when the Rams and Niners played a few weeks back. While it may have a lot of tendencies leaning toward a lot scoring affair, there are plenty of storylines to suggest we could be in for a few surprises.

"Ravens and Flacco could be in for long night against Phins D (ranked 10th total yards)" by @ FantsySprtsHome

Dolphins have been playing well this season, but the Ravens are at home and this could be just the type of setting to kickstart Flacco and company. But I’m not holding my breath.

"With Matt Moore under center, Stills could be a favorite play tonight. He's coming off a big game last Sunday" by @FantsySprtsHome

Don’t be surprised to see a rejuvenated and animated Moore tonight. He’s got a great opportunity to seize control of the starting gig in Miami, nothing that a big game couldn’t help cement maybe.

"Phins D pretty good, but trouble covering the backs could open up play for both Buck Allen tonight." by @FantsySprtsHome

I expect Buck to be very busy in the short passing game, as well as tight end Ben Watson. Flacco may not throw for a ton, but he could complete a lot of passes. Get out your PPR calculator.

"Jay Ajayi may be the only strong & must-play tonight; Ravens D last in the league allowing 145-yds/gm!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Ravens D has just struggled awful this season against the run and this would be the type of game the Dolphins would need out of Ajayi, lots of carries and lots of yards; could open some play-action and allow Moore to take a few shots downfield.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FANTASY FOOTBALL RULE NUMBER....

September 26th, 2015
Saturday

Fantasy Football Rule Number...

When in doubt, Thursday's Out. 

No, this is not my rule, but it happens to be one that I am strongly endorsing. It's always a tough start in any fantasy format playing on a short week, so unless you are starting those typical fantasy studs that are locked into your weekly lineup, you are safer staying away from those Thursday night matchups.

First of all, no one wants to go into the weekend with a couple of fantasy duds already locked into your lineup. It's just too much time to languish in the misery of second guessing and wishful thinking.

Where's the evidence? I don't know if there are any hard numbers to support the coined phrase, but just looking at this past Thursday's matchup is enough to convince me.

Even an elite receiver like the Giants Odell Beckham Jr provided little to excite the average fantasy owner. Now he did have a nice night with 7 receptions for 79 yards and a score, but considering where he was drafted and his current salary on the DFS sites, that bar is a little too low.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed also turned in a nice effort with 6 catches for 96 yards, but the lack of a score hurts those owners in leagues where touchdowns are heavy (especially the DFS sites). And if you were like me believing the hype around the Redskins rookie running back Matt Jones, his 38 yards rushing with a fumble and zero catches were costly in those lineups you played him in. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon, with DeSean Jackson out was a disappointing 5 catches for 64 yards and no score.

The best plays of the night were the Giants quarterback Eli Manning with 2 touchdown passes, 279 yards passing, and no turnovers, and wide recevier Rueben Randle with 7 receptions, 116 yards receivng, and a score.

When breaking it down, you had a division rivalry, so the teams are very familiar with one another. Playing on a short week it's tough to expect a traveling team to play big. You have an 0-2 Giants team, that could easily be 2-0, playing at home; you have to expect a better effort. It just reads as a risky play to count on much offensive output from the road team.

I think next time, if there's any dobut, Thursday's out.

That's my take.

~David G

THURSDAY'S FANTASY TAKEWAY

September 12, 2015
Saturday

Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway

Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.

A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).

Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise. 

On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.

While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.

The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.

Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;

Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)

This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.

~David G