FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

We are now into the fall season, and this is the time of year for witches, ghosts, goblins, and all things scary. Well, if you are the Denver Broncos heading into tonight’s matchup with the Chiefs, you have plenty to be scared about.

Through the first five weeks of the season, it’s been a disaster out of the gate for head coach Sean Payton and company. The Broncos are reeling at 1-4 and their defense has looked worse than flat, they’ve been bottom of the barrel awful (ranked dead last this season). The Broncos defense has not only allowed the most total yards this season, but they have also allowed the most points. If there ever was a cure to get this ship turned around for Broncos, facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead is not it.

Patrick Mahomes just may be the Jason Voorhees (Friday the 13th reference) the Broncos would love to avoid. The Chiefs offense has yet to really look like it’s normal dominant self, but a matchup with the league’s worst defense could quickly remedy this. If it’s sound like, avoid the Broncos tonight and roll out all of the Chiefs players, that may just be about the soundest advice anyone associated with fantasy football could offer.

The game still has to be played, so I’ll offer my thoughts on tonight’s best matchup and add this little nugget to the fray. It is true what they say about the NFL, Any Given Sunday. But tonight’s matchup in Arrowhead will be played on Thursday night.

Thursday's (DFS) Take Five;

1.  Isaiah Pacheco (RB) - The Chiefs running back should be poised for a big night against the league’s worst run defense. Since week 2 the Broncos run defense has been in the bottom for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs in three of the four games. With the tight end Travis Kelce possibly slowed with a bum ankle, Pacheco coming on strong the last three weeks, the Chiefs will likely feature their running game early. I, as I am sure many do, like Pacheco a lot in this one. He runs violently and strong and will surely break several tackles, maybe even break loose for a long run or two. (DK-My Captain)

2.Patrick Mahomes (QB) - The Chiefs quarterback has typically had great success against the Broncos in the win-loss columns, even when his numbers have not been the best. This season Mahomes numbers seem a little down, but a matchup with the Broncos may be just what he needs to get his numbers back the normal Mahomes tier. Last season in week 17 Mahomes torched the Broncos for 328 yards passing and three touchdown passes. I would not be surprised to see similar numbers on Thursday night. 

3. Rashee Rice (WR) - The Chiefs rookie wide receiver has been the team’s most consistent over the past couple of weeks. With Kelce ailing, even if he goes, more opportunities for Rice could open up on Thursday night. He’ll offer some great value in DFS with some true potential for a big game.

4. Chiefs Defense (DST) - There is no question after what we’ve seen from the Chiefs and Broncos this season, it’s pretty easy to predict the likelihood of this contest. The Chiefs will score early, build a lead, then turn the hounds loose. I wouldn’t expect a dominant performance, the Broncos should be able to post a couple of scores, but trailing big, the O-line will surrender 3-4 sacks and the Chiefs defense will force a turnover or two.

5. Marvin Mims Jr (WR) - The Broncos rookie wide receiver can’t seem to break-through in the rotation averaging just 28% of the snaps this season. He’s not only behind the starters Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but he’s well behind Brandon Johnson (49%) as well. The offense has had its ups and downs this season and now the team faces a monumental task when they face Mahomes and company. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense desperately need a spark and Mims Jr could be the ignition needed. He’s had a couple of big plays this season and that’s something the Broncos will really need on Thursday night. He’ll offer great value and could be the catalyst for the Broncos to put points on the board.

The Broncos have activated tight end Greg Dulcich. If the Broncos are going to have any success tonight quarterback Russell Wilson will need to find his tight end. Dulcich could be a low value sleeper pick tonight in DFS.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 1st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

NFL Sunday week 4 is set to start in a couple of hours. I’ve got my coffee poured, the TV tubes are fired up, watching the game in London, and I am combing over the day’s slate of games.

There are some great divisional matchups today with some potential fireworks in the forecast. We’ve got the Phins traveling north to face the Bills, the Ravens will enter the Dawg Pound today, and it’s always fun to watch the Raiders & Chargers in an AFC West clash.

The fridge is full, I’ve got my eggs on the skillet, and I am getting ready for my second cup of coffee. While I am looking over today’s docket, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I await the kickoff to NFL Sunday Week 4;

1. “Will the Bears score 70” - Last week was not good for the Broncos defense and the only good thing they have going today is the Bears are not the Dolphins. However the Broncos are going to miss a few key players on the defensive side and may be without safety Justin Simmons. Both defenses entering this contest have been bad, so this could end up being more of a higher scoring affair than advertised. The Bears quarterback Justin Fields will provide all sorts of problems for the defense and could keep the chains moving and on the other side, I expect to see the Broncos offense take some shots downfield with receivers Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr.

2. “Will Allen and Company Shine” - This matchup is the Marquee matchup of the day. The Bills have been on a roll, but no offense has been as hot as the Dolphins. But of course in this matchup, it’s not the Broncos defense, the game will be played in Buffalo, and Josh Allen has been a little better than Russell Wilson recently. I am expecting a shootout of sorts, start all your Bills and Dolphins, and if you have space in the flex spot, start the Waterboy.

3. “Is it time to Bench Najee” - If Najee doesn’t show-out today, he may not get another chance this season. He’s been a disappointment for fantasy owners the first three weeks and he has running back Jaylen Warren nipping at his heels. Harris is going to need his quarterback to help him out in order to open some running lanes or he could be looking at another long day. I am not holding my breath. It could be time to see more Warren and less Harris.

4. “Can anyone stop JJ” - There’s not a lot to say other than Justin Jefferson has been fantasy gold Know for fantasy owners. In ppr format through three games he has scored no less than 24 fantasy points. Getting off the bus JJ already has a couple of catches in his pocket. He’s getting heavily targeted (12+ targets per game) and he is producing at an Elite ++ level with 9 receptions and 150 yards + per outing. I can’t imagine the Panthers slowing him down today, expect more of the ridiculous same.

5. “Unleash the Zack Attack” - Over the past two weeks, it’s been the Zack Moss show as he is averaging 27 touches per game. With the Rams rolling into town, I would expect much of the same, even with the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson. I am expecting the Colts to once again feature Moss and he should again finish in the neighborhood of 20+ touches.

6. “Start of Sit Mike Evans” - After his fast start this season, fantasy WR6 through three weeks, Evans is a must start. But today presents a challenge that is likely to frustrate fantasy owners. Evans has not been historically great against the Saints, it seems Marshon Lattimore and the Saints have had his number. Evans has to be in lineups today, but owners need to temper their expectations, it could be a long afternoon.

7. “Another Swift Sunday” - This will actually be Swift’s first Sunday, since taking over the lead role in the Eagles backfield. Swift has been great in the lead spot the last two games and behind the Eagles offensive line, he’s a good bet to keep the wheel spinning in week 4. He’s currently fantasy RB18 and trending his way to the top. He’s a must-start.

8. “The Return of Joe Cool” - It’s been a slow start for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game, but if ever there was a game to get right, this matchup in Tennessee could be it. The Titans rank 30th versus the pass and the Bengals pass game finally showed signs of life last Monday. Today sets up to be a great opportunity and weather should not play a factor. Fire up Joe Cool and the Bengals pass catchers.

9. “Don’t forget Josh Jacobs” -.No Jimmy G today, what do fantasy owners do with Davante Adams, start him of course. But don’t forget the Raiders also have Josh Jacobs. Adams will get his, but the Raiders offense may lean a little more today on Jacobs as they should. The Chargers are in the bottom 3rd of yards and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Today should be a good day for Jacobs owners.

10. “CMC for MVP” - The Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has been spectacular this season leading the NFL with 353 rushing yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He is also the number two fantasy running back, so he’s making a lot of fantasy owners smile. Today should just be another day at the office for CMC.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 4 STARTS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 3

Start’Ems

My Week 4 Starts

Every week fantasy owners deal with and tackle the question of, who to sit and who to start. For some of us or maybe many of us, we follow the rule, start your starters. There are certain players you targeted in your draft and took in the early rounds and they should be started. Fantasy owners need not overthink this.

When it comes to those mid-round picks or later, this is where you might look at your bench and the waiver wire for favorable options. When I look at NFL Sunday, Week 4 these are the players that should be started and in your lineups.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos)

It’s been nothing less than a bad rollercoaster ride for Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense this season. Through the first three games we’ve seen some good, but we’ve also seen a lot of inconsistencies.

Wilson is currently the fantasy QB9, although it doesn’t seem like it. This season he’s throwing for 260 yards and two touchdowns per game, completing better than 65% of his passes and he’s added 57 yards rushing. While the numbers sound good, the team hasn’t looked good and they are 0-3, coming off the embarrassing 70-20 loss to Miami.

Wilson will have a chance at redemption for the team this week in Chicago. A big key for Wilson’s success facing the Bears 28th ranked pass defense, will be the lack of pressure. In three games this season the Bears defense is last in the league with one sack and has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

There’s not a lot of confidence in the Broncos team, but I have confidence in Wilson and head coach Sean Payton, tomorrow will be a better output for the offense and passing game. Start Wilson.

RB-Zack Moss (Colts)

The Colts running back has been fantastic as the team’s lead back. In two games this season Moss has been delivering as an elite RB-1 (currently the fantasy RB5) averaging 4.4 yards per carry, 27 touches and 126 scrimmage yards per game. He contributes in the pass game with 6 catches for 42 yards and a score in his two appearances.

With the Colts playing host to the Rams this week, Moss will be in line for another full workload, against a Rams defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. This feels like a game where Moss should see enough volume to produce RB-1 numbers for the week.

In each of the two weeks Moss has seen at least 22 touches, totaled more than 100 yards of offense in each game, finishing in the top-10 for rushing each week. His floor is high enough that he’s a safe bet and should be in your lineup. Start Moss

WR-Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)

The Niners wide receiver returns after missing one game and with the possibility of no Deebo or a less than a 100% Samuel, Aiyuk is a strong start this week. Aiyuk has blossomed into a trustworthy and dependable weapon in the pass game.

He has 11 receptions for 172 yards receiving this season, with two touchdowns. If the 49ers are without Deebo, Aiyuk could be featured even more and provide a repeat of his week one performance (fantasy WR2).

Although the Cardinals defense has played well this season, the Niners are a well-balanced and well-oiled machine on offense and will present a myriad of problems for the D. Aiyuk could see a bump in his target share, making him a strong play on Sunday. Start Aiyuk

If you are in a deep league looking for some help in the flex spot, the Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr could be a sneaky play. I already like Wilson to continue with even greater success and we’ve already seen these two connect a couple of times this season. Mims provides the deep threat for the Broncos passing game and has shown the ability to take the lid off the top of the defense.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega