FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 20th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 7: Best Matchups/Plays)

With an exciting Thursday night game just concluded, could this be a preclude of what is to come this weekend? Fantasy managers can only hope for it as we all try to navigate our fantasy lineups through a heavy dose of byes this week. 

The Thursday night matchup did bring a little relief for many as there were plenty of fantasy winning plays last night. If you had Alvin Kamara (29.3 fantasy points), Travis Etienne Jr (22.7 fantasy points), and Christian Kirk (19 fantasy points), you had to be happy with their outcomes. Even both quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr, were serviceable along with the Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13.2 points) and the Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (9.5 points).

Looking forward to this weekend, which players will bring fantasy delight to our lineups? These are some of the plays that I believe will bring more solace to our Week 7 fantasy matchups. They can also work for your DFS plays.

Geno Smith (Seahawks-QB) It’s been a bit of an up and down season for Smith and the Seahawks, but a home tilt should bring some good home cooking and strong play. The Cardinals defense is allowing the 5th most fantasy points and 4th most passing yards to quarterbacks and this could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered.

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks-RB) The Seahawks running back has been on a roll, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in four straight games. He’ll have a great shot at number five facing a Cardinals defense that’s allowing over 5 yards per carry for the last four weeks. Expect another solid outing for Walker this week.

Aaron Jones (Packers-RB) Coming off the bye, Aaron Jones could finally be healthy enough to return to the Week 1 form when he totaled 127 yards and scored twice. The timing could not be any better, in a Week 7 road tilt facing a Broncos defense that has been the worst against the run and has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns. Expect a score or two for Jones on Sunday.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs-WR) The rookie receiver seems to be trending more and more towards becoming a reliable receiving option in the Chiefs passing game. Rice has averaged 4.5 targets, 4 receptions, 52.5 yards receiving, and .5 touchdowns the past two weeks and has seen a 46% or more snap share in 3 of his last four games. In Week 6 Rice finished third among the Chiefs receivers with 35 snaps. Facing the Chargers this week, this one feels like a breakout game. 

Curtis Samuel (Commanders-WR) The Commanders wide receiver has been steady the last three weeks, he’s the fantasy WR12, with 17 catches, 15 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. Up next for Samuel is the Giants secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past 4 weeks.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks-WR) The Seahawks receiver is off the injury report and ready to take advantage of the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 2nd most reception to opposing receivers the last 4 weeks.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons-TE) The Falcons 3rd year tight end has been starting to come alive the past couple of weeks. In his last two games Pitts has caught 11 passes for 130 yards receiving, and one score. His recent production has him flirting with fantasy starter status. Pitts feels like a safe play in this one, being featured as much as he has, 17 targets over the past two weeks.

Saquon Barkley (Giants-RB) After seeing Barkley (28 touches) finish up the Sunday night game against the Bills in Week 6, his health is trending in the right direction as he faces a familiar foe he’s had past success against. Barkley should see a full workload once again and could be in for a highly productive afternoon.

Seahawks (DST) This Seahawks defense has been one of the better scoring defenses (2nd) the past four weeks, with 19 sacks and 7 takeaways. At home this week, this defense is a safe play.

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

October 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

The Fantasy Football season can be tumultuous at best and this season has been no different. The past couple of weeks have seen some big names go down, names that include Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, Anthony Richardson, Christian McCaffrey, and Justin Fields. 

As fantasy managers find a way to navigate through the wilderness that is fantasy football season, the Week 7 waiver wire does offer some relief. The pickings aren’t plentiful but the Wire has some value.

The Niners running back Jordan Mason remains the top of the list for pickups this week. Rostered in only 1.5% of ESPN leagues, he definitely looks like the Pickup of the week, especially for Christian McCaffrey owners. When CMC went down on Sunday Mason was inserted as the featured back handling backfield duties, out-snapping teammate Elijah Mitchell 15-7. Mason figures to be the first in line for work if CMC misses any time.

Rostered in only 30.4% of ESPN, the Chiefs rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice should remain a high priority on this week’s waiver wires. Over the past four weeks he has separated himself as the top receiver in KC with 16 receptions (21 targets) for 196 yards receiving and a score. The production continues to increase and he’s part of the Chiefs offense. He’s coming off a 4-receptions, 72 yards receiving performance and has a date with the Chargers in week 7.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons-QB) The Falcons 2nd year quarterback has been playing well of late. The past two weeks he's been the fantasy QB5, averaging 318 passing yards and two touchdowns per game. Consider him a solid play to fill the bye week.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) Another bye week filler, the Commanders quarterback has been very good over the past three weeks. Rostered in only 19.1% of ESPN leagues, Howell has been the fantasy QB5 averaging more than 275 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in his last three games.

Craig Reynolds (Lions-RB) With the Lions losing running back David Montgomery for multiple weeks, Reynolds is expected to slot in what will likely be a committee with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (once he returns). For Montgomery owners, Reynolds can offer some relief as an RB3 or possible flex play.

Latavius Murray (Bills-RB) - Murray seems to be in a full blown timeshare with starter James Cook (30 snaps each in Week 6). While there still seems to be a disparity in production between the two, Murray is closing the gap in opportunities 15 touches to Cook’s 23 the past two weeks. For now Murray remains a cuff, he has yet to reach standalone value.

Curtis Samuel (Commanders-WR) Only rostered in 28.6% ESPN leagues, Samuel is the Commanders leading receiver with 10 receptions, 107 receiving yards and two scores over the last two weeks. Over the past three weeks he’s seen a steady diet of targets (19) so his prospect of continued success looks good. At the very least a nice streaming option to get thru the byes.

Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants-WR) The Giants receiver is quickly becoming relevant, with 18 receptions for 120 yards receiving over his last three games. He’s worthy of flex value, but the continued increased usage and production and low ownership (5.2% of ESPN leagues) means he should be grabbed now.

Luke Musgrave (Packers-TE) Prior to the Packers Week 6 bye, the rookie is coming off one of his better showings this season. Musgrave seems to be a boom or bust candidate catching 6 passes in week 3 & 5, but just one in week 4. He’s likely a stash at the moment and more of a flier play through the byes in deeper leagues.

Michael Mayer (Raiders-TE) Finally utilized in the passing game in Week 6, Mayer collected 5 passes for 75 yards receiving on 6 targets. He should be on fantasy manager radars.

James Robinson (Packers-RB) Just signed by the Packers this week, Robinson’s addition sounds like a call to bench running back AJ Dillon. Starter Aaron Jones is still on the mend and Dillon has not been the answer in his absence. The team could just be adding depth, but Robinson could offer some value at the moment. It's a little too soon to start hyping him up, so he’s a stash candidate for now.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

We are now into the fall season, and this is the time of year for witches, ghosts, goblins, and all things scary. Well, if you are the Denver Broncos heading into tonight’s matchup with the Chiefs, you have plenty to be scared about.

Through the first five weeks of the season, it’s been a disaster out of the gate for head coach Sean Payton and company. The Broncos are reeling at 1-4 and their defense has looked worse than flat, they’ve been bottom of the barrel awful (ranked dead last this season). The Broncos defense has not only allowed the most total yards this season, but they have also allowed the most points. If there ever was a cure to get this ship turned around for Broncos, facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead is not it.

Patrick Mahomes just may be the Jason Voorhees (Friday the 13th reference) the Broncos would love to avoid. The Chiefs offense has yet to really look like it’s normal dominant self, but a matchup with the league’s worst defense could quickly remedy this. If it’s sound like, avoid the Broncos tonight and roll out all of the Chiefs players, that may just be about the soundest advice anyone associated with fantasy football could offer.

The game still has to be played, so I’ll offer my thoughts on tonight’s best matchup and add this little nugget to the fray. It is true what they say about the NFL, Any Given Sunday. But tonight’s matchup in Arrowhead will be played on Thursday night.

Thursday's (DFS) Take Five;

1.  Isaiah Pacheco (RB) - The Chiefs running back should be poised for a big night against the league’s worst run defense. Since week 2 the Broncos run defense has been in the bottom for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs in three of the four games. With the tight end Travis Kelce possibly slowed with a bum ankle, Pacheco coming on strong the last three weeks, the Chiefs will likely feature their running game early. I, as I am sure many do, like Pacheco a lot in this one. He runs violently and strong and will surely break several tackles, maybe even break loose for a long run or two. (DK-My Captain)

2.Patrick Mahomes (QB) - The Chiefs quarterback has typically had great success against the Broncos in the win-loss columns, even when his numbers have not been the best. This season Mahomes numbers seem a little down, but a matchup with the Broncos may be just what he needs to get his numbers back the normal Mahomes tier. Last season in week 17 Mahomes torched the Broncos for 328 yards passing and three touchdown passes. I would not be surprised to see similar numbers on Thursday night. 

3. Rashee Rice (WR) - The Chiefs rookie wide receiver has been the team’s most consistent over the past couple of weeks. With Kelce ailing, even if he goes, more opportunities for Rice could open up on Thursday night. He’ll offer some great value in DFS with some true potential for a big game.

4. Chiefs Defense (DST) - There is no question after what we’ve seen from the Chiefs and Broncos this season, it’s pretty easy to predict the likelihood of this contest. The Chiefs will score early, build a lead, then turn the hounds loose. I wouldn’t expect a dominant performance, the Broncos should be able to post a couple of scores, but trailing big, the O-line will surrender 3-4 sacks and the Chiefs defense will force a turnover or two.

5. Marvin Mims Jr (WR) - The Broncos rookie wide receiver can’t seem to break-through in the rotation averaging just 28% of the snaps this season. He’s not only behind the starters Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but he’s well behind Brandon Johnson (49%) as well. The offense has had its ups and downs this season and now the team faces a monumental task when they face Mahomes and company. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense desperately need a spark and Mims Jr could be the ignition needed. He’s had a couple of big plays this season and that’s something the Broncos will really need on Thursday night. He’ll offer great value and could be the catalyst for the Broncos to put points on the board.

The Broncos have activated tight end Greg Dulcich. If the Broncos are going to have any success tonight quarterback Russell Wilson will need to find his tight end. Dulcich could be a low value sleeper pick tonight in DFS.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

October 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

With Week 5 long gone and in the mirror, it’s time to look ahead to week 6. With injuries always playing its’ part in the game, the Waiver wire never runs dry with new names, faces, and options to fill the void caused by the Bye weeks and injuries. 

My first Waiver wire notes are the pickups of the week (for week 6). The Steelers running back Najee Harris continues to lose volume to teammate Jaylen Warren. In week 5 Harris narrowly out snapped Warren 37 to 32 and the touches were 15 (Harris) to 12 (Warren). Warren has proven to be the more effective running back, particularly in the passing game. If he’s available, he needs to be owned.

In Kansas City where there is no clear-cut number two receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce, I believe the rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice could emerge. Rice has averaged nearly 6 targets per game over his last three games and has 12 receptions for 124 yards and score. He has nearly doubled in fantasy points the next Chiefs receiver closest to him. The Chiefs offense has yet to hit its stride this season and in what could be a high volume, high octane offense, the second round draft pick (Rice) is one of the pieces that should be owned.

Here’s the list of other notable claims that should be made this week.

RB-Kendre Miller (Saints) - Alvin Kamara is the clear starter, but Miller would be the cuff to own and worth the stash.

RB-Jordan Mason (49ers) - Just like Kamara, Christian McCaffrey seldom comes off the field. But Mason is the cuff and he should be owned and stashed.

RB-Emari Demercado (Cardinals) - With Conner going on IR, Demercado, the fantasy RB18 in week 5, looks to be the next man up.

RB-Tyjae Spears (Titans) - Recorded 11 touches for 69 yards of offense in week 5.

WR-Josh Downs (Colts) - 21 targets in last three games, led team in receptions and yards in week 5.

WR-Jonathan Mingo (Panthers) - He was second on the team in week 5 with 7 targets. He has been targeted at least 5 times in every game played this season.

WR-Trenton Irwin (Bengals) - Targeted 10 times in week 5 to Tyler Boyd’s 7.

TE-Dalton Schultz (Texans) - He may have fallen off for a bit, but looks to be back on the radar (10 targets in week 5).

TE-Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - Despite the strong performance from teammate Kyle Pitts, Smith was still heavily involved. He out-snapped Pitts and was targeted 7 times in week 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega