December 31st 2016
Saturday Evening Edition
Sunday’s Value Plays
Taking a look at the slate for Sunday, if you pay attention there is some low cost, potential high-reward value available. A couple of plays that I like are hit or miss, but if they hit their low salaries allow owners to find play this week with some of the heavy (higher salary) hitters.
The Cardinals wide receiver J.J. Nelson is listed at a $5,300 this week and with 18 targets over the past two weeks, he offers week 17 appeal. Nelson has also scored in four straight games and posting double digit fantasy points in each. He’s a homerun or bust and his value gives owners lots of room to play with.
Another the potential homerun hitter at a great value is Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr (listed at $4,900 salary this week). Always the big-play possibility Ginn Jr has been hit and miss this season with double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six contests. Ginn Jr is coming off a modest three catch-29 yard performance last week, but has a matchup this Sunday against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks.
Another Sunday play offering value for fantasy owners is Broncos running back DeVontae Booker (listed at $5,300 salary). Booker could be viewed as a bit of a reach this week, seeing that he has only reached double-digit fantasy points twice in his last 7 games, with his last one coming four weeks ago. The good news is the latest rumor is Booker is expected to see the lionshare of the load on Sunday. In a limited stint last week versus the Chiefs, Booker flashed some promise and facing a Raiders defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the 7th most rushing yards, his Sunday outlook could be promising.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition
Last Chance to Play in 16
This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.
With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.
For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.
These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.
In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100).
Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.
Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.
With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.
My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.
The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.
This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.
That’s My Take
~David G. Orrtega
