FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 28th 2017

Thursday Morning Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

Well I took a real beating with my takes on the two quarterbacks last week. Most likely neither was on your roster, but if they were and you sat them, MAN! That’s a lot of points to leave on the floor. Hopefully this week is an easier read. With Aaron Rodgers always a must and Mike on the other side of the field, who will you be starting?

“Rodgers or Glennon? The tough choices of fantasy football lineup conundrums” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Last week Randall Cobb was sidelined and Jordy Nelson was coming off an injury that had him sidelined. Talk about your lineup dilemmas, who to start. Packers receiver Geronimo Allison rose with the cream last week and with Cobb and Nelson back on the field, to the bench I do not think he goes. He’s a risk yes, but I am hanging onto Allison and if I need flex help this week he may be inserted.

“Don’t quit on Allison so soon. We’ve seen this kid before and last week he showed something. He’s go flex appeal!” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Ty Montgomery has yet to disappoint and as fantasy’s No.4 running back (in PPR) I don’t suspect he’ll start this week, but owners should pull in the reins a bit. He’s healthy (removed from injury report), but he’s not invincible. Montgomery was slowed in the trenches last week and limited to 50 total yards. He’ll keep owners smiling with his receiving contributions and I would expect to see the Packers try to get him the ball more in space this week.

“Montgomery is catching everything in site (18 catches in 17), but A-rod needs to get him ball in space. He will” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Through the first 3 weeks this season Martellus Bennett has being seeing targets regularly, averaging 7 per week, but the problem is he’s not produced. Another problem it seems, they are asking him to run many routes; a lot of blocking and late releases. There’s no question Bennett has athletic skill and talent to make plays, he’s just not being asked to do that. Right now I can’t trust him.

“3 catches for 12 yds last week, won’t get it done. Can’t trust Martellus Bennett right now” - by @FantsySprtsHome

The Bears are coming off a big win last week and it’s quite possible they’ll carry some of that emotion into Thursday’s matchup. One player I expect to see benefit is running back Jordan Howard. He ran well on Sunday and should be fine Thursday against the Packers. He may not top 100 yards, but he should be fine with a score or two and upwards towards 20-plus touches.

“It’s going to be a busy night for J. Howard running against Pack 21st ranked run D. Start him all night.” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Like Howard, Cohen is going to see his share of the workload Thursday night. Glennon is not a great option here, but he’ll manage to get the ball to his scat back. Cohen is electric and wicked in open space. It should be just another day at the office for the rookie runner.

“If Jordan is Thunder, then Cohen is lightning and when he strikes look out! He’s got a lot of flex appeal in wk4” - by @FantsySprtsHome

There are not too many receiving options to like on a team that primarily runs the ball like the Bears; 38 times last week. The only option worth mentioning is wide receiver Kendall Wright and even he is not worth mentioning. I don’t recommend starting him, but you know what they say Glennon has to throw to someone. Maybe so, but last week he found a way to only throw 4 passes to his receivers and not one went Wright’s way.

“Even the Bears avoid their WRs, just four balls to WRs, but they did run 38 times. Avoid Bears passing game” - by @FantsySprtsHome

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 23rd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 3 Injury Takes

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end has not been effective to start the season, but that could be more about the O-line play, than his usage and effectiveness. Graham is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. It’s always tough to sit Jimmy since he’s always a red-zone favorite, so he’ll be a risky bottom-line TE1 this week.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cardinals best receiver right now is nursing a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play Monday, but this may be a tough situation for owners to navigate with the Monday kickoff. Nelson has been brilliant to start the season, if he’s a go he’s a must play.

WR-Phillip Dorsett; the Patriots newest receiver is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. Dorsett has been limited with a knee injury. He’s still pretty new to the offense, so this may not have a big fantasy impact at this time, but he’s already shown some flash and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Chris Hogan; 7-11 is trending towards playing on Sunday and he should be in all lineups on Sunday. He’s definitely one of Brady’s more trusted options and should fare well coming off a week 2 stat line of 5/78/1.

TE-Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end is off the injury report and should be good to go against the Redskins. Cook is one of my preferred starts of the week and should be considered a startable low-end TE1 this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers running back is questionable, but expected to play Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy owners, although it was never expected that he wouldn’t play. Gordon is off to slow start on the ground, but the versatile back has maintained his value with his pass-catching skills. He should be a Top-15 RB this week once again.

WR-Jordy Nelson; the Packers receiver has been practicing in full this week and is expected to play. With his teammate Cobb likely out this week, Jordy is a strong WR1 play this week

WR-Randall Cobb; the Packers receiver is doubtful for Sunday and should be taken out of your lineups. With Cobb out, Nelson, Montgomery, Bennett, and Adams should see a bump in value.

TE-Evan Engram; the rookie  has been removed from the injury report this week and will play He’s got a good matchup this week and red-zone favorite this week. Facing the Eagles defense on Sunday, he’s a likely candidate to score this week.

DEF-Vontae Davis; Davis is going to miss week 3. With the Colts offense stuck in neutral and their best corner on the sideline, the Browns passing offense will have time and should be able to operate. Give Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Jr, and Isaiah Crowell all a bump in value this week.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cooper has been somewhat quiet through two weeks, but he’s healthy and ready to go. A favorable matchup this week, Cooper should be in your lineup on Sunday.

WR-Kendall Wright; the Bears wide receiver is off the team’s injury report and ready to go for Sunday. He’s been the most active receiver in a stagnant Bears passing game with 14 targets through two weeks, but this Sunday could find it tough to get open. He’s a risky play that should be avoided.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back is a little banged up with a hamstring injury. It sounds like Murray will be available for Sunday, but based on what we’ve seen thus far from him and the fact he’s dealing with an injury his workload could be lightened significantly this week.

RB-Derrick Henry; With Murray dealing with a hamstring issue and his slow start, dial up Henry this week. The former Crimson Tide is likely to see the bulk of the carries this week.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back is off the injury report, so he’s good to go for Sunday. It’s a tough start for Howard against the Steelers, so tread lightly with your expectations.

WR-John Brown; the speedy receiver has been ruled out for a second consecutive week with a quad injury. He can be dropped at this time, until his health turns for the better.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; the Patriots tight end has been trending all week toward playing, so it sounds like owners can expect to see the Gronk on Sunday. As long as he’s on the field, Gronk is a must play

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is looking like a Game-time call for Sunday night. The offense has been stagnate after two weeks and Reed is a risky play, owners are better off looking at alternative options like Jared Cook or Jack Doyle this week.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings signal caller has been shelved for week 3. His biggest impact is the value hit his receivers will take once again. Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph all drop in value, making all tough starts. Diggs and Thielen are salvageable in larger leagues, Rudolph may be the one fantasy casualty that sits this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends

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January 11th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition

Divisional Round DFS

Another week of fantasy football and life is good. With the Divisional matchups set, there are plenty of plays this week that I like, so let’s take a look at the core plays I will be building my (Fan Duel) DFS lineups around this week.

Let’s start with defense. Although the Texans may have a number of coaches that have been cycled through the Patriot’s coaching carousel including Bill O’Brien, at home the Patriots defense ($5,100 salary) is still going to be very tough to crack. Even as the highest salaried defense, the Patriots are a safe play this week against an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 for giving fantasy points to opposing defense. The Patriots defense has also scored in double digits in two of their last three homes games; that’s trending in the right direction.

Another trend that I like as a bargain play this week is the other Atlanta running back Tevin Coleman ($4,500 salary). Starter running back Devonta Freeman ($7,600 salary) is going to be a popular play this week, but at his current salary and 11 touchdowns this season Coleman could be a nice contrarian play.

The Cowboys defense is ranked 31st versus opposing tight ends and over the last four weeks of the season they allowed the most. This sets up Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary) and his tight end Jared Cook ($5,400 salary) as possibly a nice tandem play for this weekend. Rodgers has had the hot hand of late to say the least; in his last 8 games 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cook missed the first matchup versus the Cowboys, but you can bet he’ll be heavily involved with the likelihood of no Jordy Nelson.

Rounding out the line-up, a low play at place kicker Nick Novak ($4,500 salary) and a nice value, but a little risky play with Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson ($4,700 salary) opens the door for sliding in a couple of big guns like Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
On paper these might sound and look good, but that’s why they play the games. Good luck this weekend if you play.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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January 6th, 2017
Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

It’s Wildcard Weekend and it’s time to start getting jacked for the NFL Playoffs. It all starts tomorrow (Saturday) and even though the regular season has concluded, fantasy does not stop. Thanks to DSF sites and the NFL Playoff Challenge, there’s plenty of fantasy left to play.

With fantasy on the brain, let’s talk about this weekend’s games and what five players are my favorites to perform well.

My first pick comes from the early game on Saturday, the Raiders are on the road to take on the Texans. And without quarterback Derek Carr under center, the Silver and Black will need to rely heavily on running back Latavius Murray and the running game. The Texans have been very good versus the pass this season, but their defense is only ranked 12th against the run. Murray won’t find too many big holes on the ground, but he could see some extra work in the short passing game and have a big day just on volume alone.

The Texans will likely lean the same direction as the Raiders and try to ride their own ball carrier, my second pick; Lamar Miller. In their early matchup this season, Miller tore through the Raiders defense for 104 yards on 24 carries. If the Texans have their way on Saturday, Miller could see a similar workload with similar results.

In the early game on Sunday, the Dolphins-Steelers matchup offers plenty of fantasy frenzy and my third pick; wide receiver Eli Rogers. The Steelers 2nd year receiver has been coming on of late and in his last two games with Big Ben tossing the pigskin he collected 9 passes on 11 targets for 159 yards receiving and a touchdown. There’s no doubt the Dolphins secondary is going to be preoccupied and have it hands full with the Steelers other receiver Antonio Brown. This will only mean plenty of chances for Rogers and Big Ben to connect on a big one against a secondary that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver over the past four weeks.

In the weekend finale, my number four and five picks; wide receiver Davante Adams and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There’s no question Rodgers is going to be the popular play this weekend and rightfully so. He’s Mr. Snow, Mr. Lambeau, Mr. Fire on Ice and over the past two months he’s been on a roll; his last 8 starts, 298 yards passing/game, 20 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Drawing a first round home game, weather will not be a factor for Rodgers.

With Rodgers under center his receivers are going to be busy and in line for a big Sunday. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson will draw a lot of attention, opening up opportunities for wide receiver Davante Adams to step up. Adams finished the year with 75 receptions, 997 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. He’s ready to breakout this post-season.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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January 1st, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition

My Perfect Lineup

With one week left to play regular season fantasy, here is my Draftday Perfect Lineup.

QB-Matt Ryan - Ryan has been hot all season and today he gets a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

RB-David Johnson - Johnson has been the Cardinals MVP this season, so you have to wonder how long he’ll play. Regardless, while he’s in there he should dominate touches and could find the end zone a couple of times.

RB-Bilal Powell - Bills run defense has been awful this season, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks and Powell will get his crack at them today.

WR-Julio Jones - With Ryan playing as well as he has, when healthy Jones has been a monster. He’s back today and the Saints defense should be scared.

WR-Jordy Nelson - the Packers wideout has looked like his old self of late and today he faces the Lions defense that has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

WR-Michael Thomas - the Saints-Falcons games is lining up to be a high scoring affair today and with Brees tossing the pigskin, any of his receivers has a chance at a big game. Expect Thomas to add to his 8 touchdown total.

TE-Travis Kelce - the Chiefs tight end has been a force at times and averaging better than 9 targets per game over his last six, he’s in line for another busy and productive Sunday.

PK-Justin Tucker - the Ravens kicker has been money all season. The Bengals may keep the Flacco and company out of the end zone, but Tucker will put points on the board.

DEF-Broncos - no Derek Carr today, coming off a humiliating loss, and having lost the first matchup with the Raiders this season, expect Wade Phillips to stack the line and turn the dogs loose today.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Last Chance to Play in 16

This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.

With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.

For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.

These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.

In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100). 

Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.

Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.

With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.

My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.

The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.

This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.

That’s My Take

~David G. Orrtega