FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late-Night Edition

October 13th, 2018

Week 6: DFS Saturday

So, it’s been a while since my last entry, but like the rest of the fantasy football universe, I too have been playing the usual seasonal and weekly leagues.

So far, my track record for DFS has been break-even, so with some tasty Week 6 matchups, let’s see if there’s an opportunity to cash out this week.

The two primary day games where we could see a lot of fantasy explosions come in the Buccaneers-Falcons and the Bengals-Steelers, where the offensive weapons are plenty and the defenses are struggling.

In Draft Kings I am running a double stack with several players from these two matchups; QB-Matt Ryan paired with WR-Calvin Ridley and WR-Mohamed Sanu in my flex. The Bucs defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and with the focus on Julio Jones, these two look like great prospects to find pay dirt.

Although Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is on the road this week, his week 6 matchup against the Bengals who allow the 7th most receptions to wide receivers make his two primary receivers (Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster) favorable plays this week as well.

Even with changes at Quarterback being made during their bye week, the Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans could be eyeing a huge Sunday against a Falcons secondary that has allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers (most allowed).

Speaking of a struggling defense, not only have the Falcons been torched through the air, but with a run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, this is the week to play the Bucs Ronald Jones II. I am reading Jones may not start but given the state of the Bucs running game and this matchup, he should see plenty of opportunity to make some noise.

I have managed to see quite a bit of Browns Quarterback Baker Mayfield and I am impressed with his poise in the pocket and his arm strength. It’s a home matchup against a Chargers defense that will still be without pass rusher Joey Bosa. Given time to throw, I like Mayfield on Sunday paired with his number one receiver Jarvis Landry; three straight games with double-digit targets. With that much volume against the Chargers defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Landry looks like a solid play.

That’s my Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 22nd 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

On the Cover This Week

Pittsburgh is Steel Rolling 

with Big Ben

The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting atop of their division at 8-2 and tied with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC. They have done all of this with something noticeably missing until just recently.

Heading into their Week 10 matchup with the Indy Colts, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense had yet to really fully display their talents and expectations as a unit. In what should have been a great matchup the Steelers offense was not all it could have been. But it was enough for the win and from that game a much-needed big play spark.

Fast forward to Week 11 and suddenly the Steelers offense led by Big Ben and his Killer Juju-Bees found gold again and struck big on Thursday night. With another toy in his arsenal and an old favorite, Big Ben turned in easily his best performance of the season last Thursday passing for 299 yards and throwing 4 touchdowns against the Titans defense. He finished as the league’s No.2 fantasy QB for Week 11.

It was a statement to the rest of the league to take heed, Big Ben and Company are back and Steelers offense is just heating up. With Antonio Brown playing lights out, the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, the deep threat of Martavis Bryant, and the smooth Le’Veon Bell, Big Ben is well equipped to do some serious damage to opposing defenses.

Big Ben is only the No.16 fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but his stock is on the rise and he is trending in the right direction. With matchups against defenses like the Packers, Patriots, Texans, and the Ravens at home, Big Ben and the Steelers passing game could be ready to make a run and get a on sweet roll.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 WR Rankings

Coming off a huge Week 7 performance against the Chiefs, I like Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper on the road this week against the Bills. With Marshawn Lynch sidelined, the Raiders may not feature the run game and rely more on the pass. I also believe the Bills will be tough on the road and force the Raiders to be more one dimension. Cooper played well last week and could continue that momentum this week.

At No.19, I have the Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor. It’s a decent matchup for the Eagles receiver this week against the Niners, who have allowed an average of 20-plus fantasy points versus opposing receivers. Agholor is tied for 2nd this season with 5 receiving touchdowns, so he’ll be threat to score again on Sunday.

The Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson enters the Top-30 this week. He’s been quiet most of the season, but lately he’s been turning heads. His number the past two weeks have been modest, 4 catches, for 50 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be matched up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing receivers; this could be his breakout week.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. AJ Green

3. Julio Jones

4. Keenan Allen

5. Mike Evans

6. Michael Thomas

7. Dez Bryant

8. Doug Baldwin

9. Brandin Cooks

10. Amari Cooper

11. DeAndre Hopkins

12. Kelvin Benjamin

13. Adam Thielen

14. Chris Hogan

15. Alshon Jeffery

16. Michael Crabtree

17. Pierre Garcon

18. TY Hilton

19. Nelson Agholor

20. Stefon Diggs

21. Devin Funchess

22. Tyreek Hill

23. Demaryius Thomas

24. Mohamed Sanu

25. DeSean Jackson

26. Marvin Jones Jr

27. Ted Ginn Jr

28. Will Fuller

29. Jermaine Kearse

30. Josh Doctson

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Fantasy Fallout

More Luck Needed.

This may not be what fantasy owners and Colts fans want to hear, but we are now heading into the 7th week of the season and quarterback Andrew Luck is still weeks away for seeing the field. At what point do you get into the season where you have to think about the long term and shut Luck down? At 2-4 through 6 weeks and a tough week 7 showdown with the Jaguars, the Colts season with Luck is getting farther and farther away. Fantasy owners will have to start facing the awful truth; they’re going to need lots more luck if Luck doesn’t return this season.

Chiefs Defense: Not What You Think?

After 6 weeks of action, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL as the Chiefs fell Sunday to the Steelers. And how did this happen? Maybe it’s because the Chiefs defense is not what you think. When they were 5-0 and getting ready to hit cruise control with the Steelers coming to town, what we saw on Sunday and found out, this team is not so formidable. In reality, their weakest link could be their defense, ranked 29th in total yards allowed. Did the Steelers 13th ranked offense in total yards expose them or am I just over-reacting?

Broncos Offense: A Fantasy Mess.

Being the Broncos fan that I am, after watching this offense seemingly struggle week after week a trend starts to emerge; their offense is a fantasy mess with Siemian under center. Is it the play-calling or the execution, hard to tell, maybe it’s both. One thing for sure is, the offense has produced just 10, 16, and 16, since their week 2 explosion for 42 points. Averaging just 14 points the past three weeks is not going to get it done for Broncos fans and fantasy owners. Something needs to be fixed (in the pass game or the run game) or this funk could continue and fantasy owners will be forced to start looking at sitting or trading players like Demaryius Thomas and CJ Anderson.

Packers Offense Facing A Big Change.

Everyone knows about the injury and most who follow football understand the importance of the starting quarterback to his offense. But when you are talking about the Packers starter Aaron Rodgers and his offense, there may not be anyone more important. Rodgers is definitely the engine that makes the Packers offense run. The first reaction is with Aaron OUT, all Packers players fantasy value across the board takes a huge hit. This may make sense, also the run game could become prominent (enter Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery), but the other wild-card to consider is backup quarterback Brett Hundley is no stranger to the offense and his supporting cast. On Sunday he was thrown to the wolves and one week is not going to be enough time to make a 180 degree difference, but as he gets in sync with the offense and the game slows down for him (and it will), we’ll have to see what he can do. So, no need to panic yet.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 17th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Sunday Heroes

Not the Usual Suspects

In week 6 there were a lot of big names like Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, and Antonio Brown on the board scoring well for fantasy owners, but these were your not The Usual Suspects putting up numbers on Sunday as well.

He’s not been the best each week, but it seems every week Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is in the fold. Palmer, the No.8 fantasy QB through week 6 posted a solid line of 18 of 22 passing for 283 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick; he was the No.4 fantasy QB for the week.

In a back-up role Jaguars running back Chris Ivory got a lot of play in the passing game on Sunday. Ivory was targeted 10 times, catching 9 balls for 74 receiving yards and a touchdown; good enough for the No.7 fantasy RB in PPR for week 6.

The Giants running back Orleans Darkwa had a Sunday night breakout performance against the league’s number one run defense (Broncos). Darkwa carried the pigskin 21 times for 117 rushing yards finishing the week as the No.17 fantasy RB in PPR (he was even better in standard at No.11).

The Lions passing game got a boost from wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. He’s been relatively quiet this season, but on Sunday he erupted for 21.6 fantasy points in PPR with a stat line of 6/96/1. He was the No.4 fantasy WR in week 6 (PPR format).

In the Sunday night Mile High Meltdown by the Broncos, the Giants rookie tight end Evan Engram provided plenty of heat. The rookie pass catcher hauled in 5 passes for 71 yards with a touchdown on 7 targets, good enough for the No.3 fantasy TE for Week 6 (in PPR).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 6 WR Rankings

The Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan has emerged as Tom Brady’s go to receiver this season. Through five games Hogan is the No.5 fantasy WR in PPR with 23 receptions for 288 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is one of Brady’s biggest targets next to Gronk and has become an endzone favorite this season. He’s my No.10 fantasy receiver this week.

The Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is currently residing outside the Top-50 fantasy WR’s in PPR through five weeks, but this could be the week he cracks that barrier. Pryor looked pretty sharp in his last game and it would have been even better had he hung onto a go ahead touchdown reception late in the 4th quarter against the Chiefs back in week 4. Coming off the bye, he’ll be fresh and ready to attack a Niners secondary that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s my No.14 fantasy WR this week.

With receiver Stefon Diggs sidelined this week with a groin injury, the other half of the Wonder Twins, Vikings receiver Adam Thielen should see a heavy dose of targets on Sunday. Thielen is the No.22 fantasy WR in PPR this season, but with no Diggs he’ll be the number one on Sunday and will have a great shot at moving into the Top-20.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. DeAndre Hopkins

3. Julio Jones

4. Michael Thomas

5. Mike Evans

6. Jordy Nelson

7. Keenan Allen

8. Larry Fitzgerald

9. TY Hilton

10. Chris Hogan

11. Tyreek Hill

12. Brandin Cooks

13. Pierre Garcon

14. Terrelle Pryor

15. Golden Tate

16. Adam Thielen

17. Davante Adams

18. Jarvis Landry

19. Demaryius Thomas

20. Michael Crabtree

21. Amari Cooper

22. Randall Cobb

23. Emmanuel Sanders

24. DeSean Jackson

25. Tyrell Williams

26. John Brown

27. Jermaine Kearse

28. Devante Parker

29. Sammy Watkins

30. Rishard Matthews

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

He is Mr.Under-rated

The Bengals wide receiver AJ Green is probably the best least talked about receiver in the game. And he shouldn't be. When fantasy analysts and Football experts are talking about Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr, most of the time Green does not get mentioned.

The talented receiver has not played a full season since 2015, but when's he's been healthy and on the field it's hard to argue that's there's anyone better. In 2016 Green missed 6 games and in 2014 he missed three, but if you look at his numbers and project them out over a full 16 games here's how they would have likely looked; 2016 numbers, 105 receptions for 1,542 yards and 6 touchdowns (295.2 fantasy points would have ranked 5th), 2014 numbers, 85 receptions for 1,281 yards and 7 touchdowns (255.1 fantasy points would have ranked 13th).

Except for his rookie season, his projected 13th finished would have been his worst finish.

When he's played 16 games, three times in 2012, 2013, and 2015, here's how Green has finished; 2012 he finished with 299.8 fantasy points (ranked 3rd), in 2013 he finished with 306.6 fantasy points (ranked 4th) and in 2015 he finished with .

Now let's look at the first five weeks of this season. Currently Green is the No.3 fantasy receiver in PPR. His 32 receptions ranked 3rd in the league, his 504 yards receiving are second to Antonio Brown's 545, and his 3 touchdowns are ranked 4th (also tied with players like Odell Beckham Jr, Dez Bryant, and Nelson Agholor).

I believe the numbers speak for themselves. Green has proven he's as good as anyone, yet we seem to hear his name as much as we probably should. Maybe the next time we talk about the best receivers in the game we should start with Mr. Underrated (AJ Green).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 4 WR Rankings

Wide Receivers

1. Julio Jones

2. Antonio Brown

3. AJ Green

4. Odell Beckham Jr

5. Keenan Allen

6. DeAndre Hopkins

7. Stefon Diggs

8. Mike Evans

9. Michael Thomas

10. Brandin Cooks

11. Dez Bryant

12. Alshon Jeffery

13. Demaryius Thomas

14. Tyreek Hill

15. Amari Cooper

16. Jarvis Landry

17. Golden Tate

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Larry Fitzgerald

20. TY Hilton

21. Doug Baldwin

22. Devante Parker

23. Michael Crabtree

24. Emmanuel Sanders

25. Adam Thielen

26. Chris Hogan

27. Pierre Garcon

28. Rishard Matthews

29. Marquise Lee

30. Martavis Bryant

Julio Jones leads the band this week. He’s been held quiet (no touchdowns) through the first three weeks (No.23 fantasy WR), but will look to get things going this week. He’s listed as questionable, so you’ll want to check his injury status before game-time. But if he’s out there, he’s my number one this week matched against the Bills 9th ranked pass defense that’s allowed the 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers.

I’ve got the Chargers receiver Keenan Allen coming in at No.5 this week. Allen sees a healthy diet of targets each week averaging 9.3 per game and this week’s matchup is right up his alley. The Chargers face the Eagles this week and Allen will be lining up against a secondary that has allowed the most receptions (49) to opposing receivers this season.

Slotted right behind Allen is the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He’s the most targeted receiver in the league and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. The Titans allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, so I like Hopkins chances at getting plenty of looks on Sunday.

Stefon Diggs is the No.1 fantasy WR through three weeks and he’s had success in the past against the Lions. I like his chances this Sunday even with quarterback Case Keenum under center. The Lions don’t shut down allowing the 10th most receptions to opposing receivers. Diggs has been efficient and effective and will be looking to build off his huge week 3 performance.

I’ve got the Dolphins receivers (both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker) slotted a little higher this week. They’ll be playing in London against a Saints defense that has struggled this season against the pass. I have a feeling this matchup is going to be filled with a lot of points. Landry should see a large volume of short passes to carry his value, while Parker may get his hands on a long score this week.

One more notable is the Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree. I’ve moved him down considerably this week, since he’ll have a tough task getting open against the Broncos dreaded “No Fly Zone.” The Broncos have not been elite this season, but they have been effective and Crabtree has struggled in the past against Denver.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

It’s another week of the NFL and after the fantastic Thursday Night game between the Rams and Niners we just witnessed, I can hardly wait for the Sunday action. It’s only week 3, so there’s still a full slate of 14 games on Sunday to be played.

This Sunday will get started a little earlier than usual with the London game between the Jaguars and Ravens. With things set to kick off at 3:30 am EST, make sure you set those alarms early and don’t forget to watch these 5 things this week;

#1 Quarterback Trevor Siemian versus the Bills defense

This will be the first real test for Siemian this season, on the road this week after what looked two cush home games. Siemian has been brilliant through two weeks completing 65 percent of his passing and throwing 6 touchdowns. He’s earned his way onto fantasy rosters, but is he worthy of a starting slot? The Bills defense is the 8th stingiest against opposing quarterbacks, so Siemian will be tested. Owners keep your eye on this one, if Siemian passes this test we may have to consider starting him on a weekly basis.

#2 Quarterback Cam Newton against the Saints

The Panthers offense does not yet look quite in sync, but they have managed to dispose of the Niners and Bills in consecutive weeks. Through 2 games the Panthers have only mustered two touchdowns. It makes you wonder how healthy is Cam. This week the Saints and their 32nd ranked defense will roll into town; Saints allow 32.5 points per game (worst in league) and over 500 yards of offense per game (worst in league). This should be a good measuring stick for how healthy Cam really is and how good this offense is. Right now everyone is steamrolling the Saints, if we don’t see the same from Cam and company, there may good cause to wonder, if not worry.

#3 Running back Leonard Fournette in London

Since you’re going to be up early anyway, pay attention to the Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette. After his strong out of the gate week one performance against the Texans, Fournette was quieter in week 2 against the Titans. Fournette is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but through two weeks he’s also averaging 22.5 touches per games. As long as he continues to see that kind of volume, owners can relax. He faces a tough test this week across the pond facing the Ravens stout run defense. Ravens have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and have not surrendered a rushing touchdown yet. The Jags passing offense was subpar last week to say the least, so they should be leaning heavily on ground game with Fournette; this should be fun to watch.

#4 Big Ben and the Steelers offense

In a nutshell, it’s time to rev the engine. The Steelers boast some of the most dynamic and explosive skill players on offense. It’s time for Big Ben and company to break out. Through two weeks we’ve seen some signs that this offense is getting ready to heat up; week one it was Antonio Brown, in week two Martavis Bryant turned it up and Le’Veon Bell logged 27 carries. Could this be the week all the pieces fall into place and the offense goes nuts? Fantasy owners certainly hope so. Even though this matchup is on the road, there’s a good chance it happens. The Bears defense ranks 24th in the league, allowing 26 points and 340 yards of offense per game. Let’s keep a watch on this one, it could get entertaining.

#5 The Raiders secondary against the Redskins passing offense

In other words, let’s see how quarterback Kirk Cousins performs this week. Cousins and the offense have now had several weeks to shake the rust, it’s time to show us who they are; relevant or bust. Let’s put it this way, the Rams quarterback Jared Goff had more fantasy points entering his week 3 matchup. Through two weeks Cousins is the No.24 fantasy QB and his numbers in both weeks have been quiet. The Raiders secondary is leaky and we’ve seen this. Through two weeks their numbers haven’t been all bad, but they are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a 63.1 completion percentage. It’s go big or go home for the Redskins passing game.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega