FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Fantasy Fallout

More Luck Needed.

This may not be what fantasy owners and Colts fans want to hear, but we are now heading into the 7th week of the season and quarterback Andrew Luck is still weeks away for seeing the field. At what point do you get into the season where you have to think about the long term and shut Luck down? At 2-4 through 6 weeks and a tough week 7 showdown with the Jaguars, the Colts season with Luck is getting farther and farther away. Fantasy owners will have to start facing the awful truth; they’re going to need lots more luck if Luck doesn’t return this season.

Chiefs Defense: Not What You Think?

After 6 weeks of action, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL as the Chiefs fell Sunday to the Steelers. And how did this happen? Maybe it’s because the Chiefs defense is not what you think. When they were 5-0 and getting ready to hit cruise control with the Steelers coming to town, what we saw on Sunday and found out, this team is not so formidable. In reality, their weakest link could be their defense, ranked 29th in total yards allowed. Did the Steelers 13th ranked offense in total yards expose them or am I just over-reacting?

Broncos Offense: A Fantasy Mess.

Being the Broncos fan that I am, after watching this offense seemingly struggle week after week a trend starts to emerge; their offense is a fantasy mess with Siemian under center. Is it the play-calling or the execution, hard to tell, maybe it’s both. One thing for sure is, the offense has produced just 10, 16, and 16, since their week 2 explosion for 42 points. Averaging just 14 points the past three weeks is not going to get it done for Broncos fans and fantasy owners. Something needs to be fixed (in the pass game or the run game) or this funk could continue and fantasy owners will be forced to start looking at sitting or trading players like Demaryius Thomas and CJ Anderson.

Packers Offense Facing A Big Change.

Everyone knows about the injury and most who follow football understand the importance of the starting quarterback to his offense. But when you are talking about the Packers starter Aaron Rodgers and his offense, there may not be anyone more important. Rodgers is definitely the engine that makes the Packers offense run. The first reaction is with Aaron OUT, all Packers players fantasy value across the board takes a huge hit. This may make sense, also the run game could become prominent (enter Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery), but the other wild-card to consider is backup quarterback Brett Hundley is no stranger to the offense and his supporting cast. On Sunday he was thrown to the wolves and one week is not going to be enough time to make a 180 degree difference, but as he gets in sync with the offense and the game slows down for him (and it will), we’ll have to see what he can do. So, no need to panic yet.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega