FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 2nd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 13 Favorite Plays

Kickoff Sunday for Week 13 is just over 12 hours away and I am still shuffling many of my lineups, as this is a huge weekend with a lot on the line. In several of my leagues, a win this week will go a long way (post-season baby). These aren’t necessarily players I have on my rosters, but these are players that I like in tomorrow’s matchups;

CJ Anderson/Devontae Booker; the boys in Bronco’s backfield should be busy tomorrow in a road matchup against the Dolphins. The run game will be the priority, even in a timeshare, these two should get plenty of work.

Adrian Peterson; I can’t imagine the Cardinals not leaning heavy on All-day in the home matchup with the Rams tomorrow. It should be a busy day for Adrian against the Rams 27th ranked run defense.

Keenan Allen; The Chargers receiver leads the team with 67 receptions and 97 yards. He has been big at times this season and tomorrow could be another one of those games. Allen has 23 receptions for 331 yards and 3 scores; he’s on fire and should continue the trend.

Mike Evans; The Buccaneers receiver has slid down the fantasy tree some this season, currently at the No.19 fantasy WR in PPR. Evans has yet to surpass the 100-yard receiving barrier this season, but with 22 targets in the past two weeks and an easy matchup this Sunday and big game looms.

Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end has a juicy matchup and he’s in a few of my lineups tomorrow. Fantasy owners can expect a strong game from Cook with starters Crabtree and Cooper out for Sunday.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers

(Week 7)

There is always going to be those weeks when players don't perform, when they get shut down, or when they tank big time. Those are the weeks and the games fantasy owners can only hope to safely navigate their way through, because when you don't these fantasy duds can kill a Sunday lineup. These are the week 7 Lineup Killers;

QB-Cam Newton; the Panthers quarterback looked much better in his postgame, then he did on the field Sunday (at least to most fantasy owners). Newton passed for only 211 yards with no touchdowns and two picks; not the numbers of a QB1.

QB-Eli Manning; the Giants signal caller was just awful on Sunday against the Seahawks. Manning completed just 19 of 39 passes for a mere 134 yards, throwing one touchdown. Without OBJ, Manning has quickly fallen off the QB1 big board and will likely continue to fall.

QB-Marcus Mariota; it was an off week for the Titans starter. It was just one of those games where Mariota could not get his offense out of first; he passed for 203 yards with no touchdowns. Fantasy owners are hoping Mariota can get things turned around soon; he's currently the No.21 fantasy QB.

RB-CJ Anderson; with the struggles of the Broncos offense, go the struggles of the run game and Anderson. It was another subpar week with just 11 touches for 61 total yards. As long as this offense struggles as it has, Anderson is not a great RB2/3 option.

RB-Melvin Gordon; it was another tough matchup against the Broncos defense, and in this case the Broncos won the matchup. Gordon was bottled up most of the day totaling just 44 yards on 19 touches. The good news here, 19 touches and the Chargers won't see the Broncos again this season.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back found little room to run against a tough Panthers run defense on Sunday. Howard totaled just 65 rushing yards on 21 carries. The good news here, Howard once again dominated the touches in the backfield with 21; his 5th straight game with at least 19 touches or more.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals star receiver was held in check on Sunday with just 3 catches for 41 yards. Green only had 6 targets on the day and could never really get going in a matchup pretty much dominated by the Steelers. His 6 targets were a season-low and probably something that won't be repeated any time soon.

WR-Keenan Allen; like his teammate Melvin Gordon, Allen was just a victim of a tough matchup against the Broncos. Allen caught 3 passes for 41 yards on 7 targets. Two things here, the 7 targets by far a season low and like Gordon, he won't face the Broncos again.

TE-Martellus Bennett; with the change at quarterback, there's going to be a lot of growing pains for the Packers tight end; just  2 catches for 17 yards on 3 targets. Bennett is off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 13th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

Another exciting Sunday approaches as we are already underway with week 6, following Thursday night’s exciting finish between the Eagles and Panthers. And like the great game we watched Thursday, I am looking for a lot of great and a lot of exciting on Sunday. Here are five things I will be following on Sunday;

#1. The Giants are a mess, time to strike.

Injuries and in-house feuding has the G-men in turmoil. The offense has been decimated with injuries and the defense is a mess with players being suspended. If there was ever a time for the Broncos offense to strike, this Sunday night could be it. Coming off the bye quarterback Trevor Siemian will be looking to kickstart the passing game, while the Jamaal Charles and CJ Anderson will be looking to lead the running game against a 29th ranked Giants run defense.

#2. Steelers Offense needs a Spark.

After a horrid week 5 performance at home against the Jaguars, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense are in dire need of a spark. Running back Le’Veon Bell has been anchoring the run game, but what the offense has been missing are the big plays from the passing game. There’s been talk about giving wide receiver Martavis Bryant a break, I don’t buy it. He’s unquestionably your most explosive offensive player, he’s got to be involved this Sunday against the Chiefs. I’ve watched a number of Steelers games this season, and there have been numerous close misses between Big Ben and Martavis. I look for the two to take a number of shots this week and finally dial in a couple for the spark they need.

#3. Watch John Brown on Sunday.

The Cardinals speedy playmaking receiver John Brown has been practicing and getting healthier each week. Last Sunday Brown was targeted 7 times, snagging two balls for 26 yards and a score. Not big numbers in week 5, but his 7 targets equaled the number of targets he saw in week 4. As long as Brown continues to see a steady diet of looks, he’s going to have fantasy value; and this week adds an appetizing matchup against the Buccaneers 26th ranked pass defense.

#4. Deshaun a Stud; It’s Elementary my Dear Watson.

After back-to-back brilliant performances, the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is educating the rest of the league as to how good this stud really is. Through five weeks Watson has cemented himself as a Top-10 fantasy QB. With a date against the Browns this Sunday and a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Watson will once again be putting his theory to the test.

#5. Mack’s time is coming, maybe sooner than later.

Father time has a way of calling when you least expect it and don’t want to listen. While Colts running back Frank Gore has been actively involved in the passing game the past couple of weeks, his rushing numbers have not been impressive; just 151 yards rushing on 51 carries in his last three starts. Rookie running back Marlon Mack had his first breakout game last week totaling 91 yards on 9 carries. The dominant running performance will surely earn him more time on the field and while we’re not ready to retire Gore just yet, you can bet Mack’s time is coming and he should be owned in fantasy leagues.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 RB Rankings

Running Backs (does not include Thurs)

1. Kareem Hunt

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Jay Ajayi

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Todd Gurley

7. Le’Veon Bell

8. Dalvin Cook

9. Leonard Fournette

10. DeMarco Murray

11. Melvin Gordon

12. Marshawn Lynch

13. Carlos Hyde

14. CJ Anderson

15. Lamar Miller

16. Chris Carson

17. Christian McCaffrey

18. Ameer Abdullah

19. Joe Mixon

20. Terrance West

21. Mark Ingram

22. Jonathan Stewart

23. Frank Gore

24. Chris Thompson

25. Isaiah Crowell

26. Mike Gillislee

27. Jacquizz Rodgers

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Duke Johnson

30. Javorius Allen

The Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt has been on fire to start the season and back on the big stage Monday night against the Redskins he’s looking to continue. He may find little space this week against the Redskins 4th ranked run defense, but no way is he sitting. Hunt has the big play knack and with 137 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns he has great value in PPR regardless.

I am running with Bills running back LeSean McCoy in week 4. Last week the Broncos number three ranked run defense had the no.17 fantasy runner boxed up, but this week McCoy gets the Falcons. It should be easier sledding for the Bills ball carrier facing a Falcons defense that ranks 8th, but has seen the 4th fewest carries and allows the 3rd most yards per carry.

I am not down on Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell this week, just keeping his numbers real at No. 7 this week. Bell is currently ranked as the No.15 fantasy running back, but should do well this week facing the Ravens 18th ranked run defense.

I’ve move Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch down a few spots this week, but owners proceed with caution. The Broncos run defense has been stout through three weeks, no reason to see this change. Yards will be hard to find, but Lynch will see the lionshare and could get some goal line work for an short score.

In the same game, I am not real high on Broncos running back CJ Anderson. He’ll likely see his usual workload, but what could derail his efforts is Jamaal Charles. If Charles gets into the game and has early success, he could cut into Anderson’s carries.

I’ve moved Redskins running back Chris Thompson up to No.24 this week, but don’t be surprised if he cracks the Top-20. Thompson has been on fire the past two weeks and as the rest of the offense heats up, Thompson’s upside skyrockets. Last week Thompson recorded 14 touches, expect the Redskins to try and get him to that number again this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Week 3 Sunday Lineup Killers

If you were counting on your big guns to deliver on Sunday, boy were you disappointed in a big way. Fantasy championships are lost this way. Well that may be over-dramatizing things a bit, but if your guys played like this it definitely didn’t help your cause;

The biggest egg laid yesterday in fantasy had to come in the days finale; the Sunday night game between the Raiders and the Redskins. The Raiders did have to travel across the country for this meeting and it looked like quarterback Derek Carr never left the plane; he only passed for 118 yards and threw two interceptions killing most DFS lineups. Fantasy owners can count on Carr bouncing back and he’ll have to quick; up next is the Denver defense.

Like Carr, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (what I considered a borderline QB1/QB2 in Week 3) killed any DFS lineup you played him in. Rivers was the mad bomber on Sunday, but the only problem was several of his long darts went to the other side. Rivers was turnover happy last season, so fantasy owners may want to slow their roll with him for the time being.

Derek Carr: 19 of 31, 118 pa yds, 1 Td, 2 Int

Philip Rivers: 20 of 40, 237 pa yds, 3 Int

Well, we thought he would be the featured back in New England and with 12 carries (most on the team) on Sunday he may be; he’s just part of an offense that features the pass. Without a rushing touchdown on Sunday Gillislee was a big flop finishing with just 31 rushing yards. In this offense, with Gillislee there are going to be Sundays like this. He’s a boom or bust better suited for standard leagues.

And just like Gillislee, Broncos running back CJ Anderson is better suited for the ground game. Anderson has never been a heavy volume pass catcher, just 4 catches leading into the contest, so when he’s held in check on the ground (as he was on Sunday) his numbers will disappoint. Fortunately for owners, the Broncos line has improved, so we should see this turn of event too often.

For those of us that expected a heavy workload for Titans running back Derrick Henry, not only did that not come to fruition (just 13 carries), but it you say DeMarco Murray too you were equally disappointed.

Mike Gillislee: 31 ru yds

CJ Anderson: 36 ru yds, 2 rec, 7 rec yds

Derrick Henry: 54 ru yds, 10 rec yds

There were a couple of big disappointments at the receiver spot in week 3 and amongst the notables were a couple of Raiders Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The pair combined for just 2 catches and 13 receiving yards; not exactly what the fantasy doctor ordered. These two should get things turned around, but fantasy owners may have to be patient with a week 4 meeting against the Broncos coming up.

Jamison Crowder: 6 rec, 52 rec yds, 1 Fum

Alshon Jeffery: 4 rec, 56 rec yds

Amari Cooper: 1 catch, 6 rec yds

Michael Crabtree: 1 catch, 7 rec yds

Sunday week 3 was not a good day for tight ends, several starters came up short in disappointing fashion including the Packers Martellus Bennett; just 3 catches for 12 yards. Bennett has been targeted 21 times in three games, but the majority of his routes are short patterns and safety valves not producing much for owners. He may have been considered a bottom half TE1, but until the Packers move him downfield more,he’s just a TE2 with a low ceiling.

Martellus Bennett: 3 catches, 12 rec yds

Kyle Rudolph: 1 catch, 4 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 2 rec, 16 rec yds, 1 Fum

Coby Fleener: 1 catch, 21 rec yds

Hunter Henry: 0 catches, 0 targets

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 13th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 RB Rankings (PPR)

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Leonard Fournette

4. Ezekiel Elliott

5. Melvin Gordon

6. Jay Ajayi

7. Devonta Freeman

8. Kareem Hunt

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Todd Gurley

11. Ty Montgomery

12. DeMarco Murray

13. Dalvin Cook

14. Jordan Howard

15. Mark Ingram

16. Christian McCaffrey

17. CJ Anderson

18. Isaiah Crowell

19. Lamar Miller

20. Carlos Hyde

21. Bilal Powell

22. Terrance West

23. Jacquizz Rodgers

24. Ameer Abdullah

25. Jonathan Stewart

26. James White

27. Mike Gillislee

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Tarik Cohen

30. Javorius Allen

Although he struggled in his first week back, I have to put Bell at the top of my rankings for Week 2. He’ll be featured in the short-passing game as well as the run game this Sunday against the Vikings, so what he’ll lack on the ground he will more than make up in the air.

I’ve moved the rookie Leonard Fournette way up my rankings this week. He’ll face a Titans defense that yielded 76 yards rushing (on 18 carries) to Marshawn Lynch a week ago, but Fournette will get more than just 18 chances.

I’m going to buy into the Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt this week, but I’m not going overboard. I have him ranked 9th this week, going against a pretty good Eagles front, he’s a dual threat and will stay productive out of the backfield.

I’ve dropped DeMarco Murray a few slots; not thrilled with his matchup this week against the Jaguars defense. This one will be close throughout, so Murray should see even touches to salvage the day.

The Saints and Patriots could be locked up in a shootout this Sunday and while it’s hard to figure who’s going to see the majority of snaps, I favor Mark Ingram (ranked 15th this week). The Saints rookie Alvin Kamara actually saw more snaps in the backfield than Ingram did last week, but the veteran was considerably more productive; even with Adrian Peterson’s presence I expect Ingram to lead the way.

I have said before that I like Jamaal Charles over CJ Anderson, but until the Broncos coaching staff commits to giving JC an extended look, Anderson will carry the reigns. Anderson was successful in week 1 totaling 81 yards on the ground on 20 carries and could see similar work this week. Charles will have to be patient.

Lastly, a notable insertion at the 23rd spot is Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Last season when Doug Martin went down, Rodgers was a strong fill-in averaging better than 4 yards per carry. He’ll be at home this week against the Bears and should see plenty of opportunity.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega