FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 17th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

My Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

Believe me when I say, there’s no deep research here. I’m not using any algorithms or scientific formulas, but at the same time I am not flipping coins or selecting the more dominant state flowers. I just go by what my eyes see and what the numbers tell me. After 10 weeks of action, these are my favorite plays for Sunday Week 11;

Derek Carr (Oak); I like the Raiders quarterback at home this week against the Patriots. And while some believe the Pats defense is playing much better, let’s not confuse Brock Osweiler with Derek Carr. The talent level and abilities are not comparable. I expect a huge day for Carr.

Latavius Murray (Min); The Rams have not been great against the run this season and their secondary is going to have all they can handle with the Wonder Twins (Diggs & Thielen) on Sunday. Murray should see a healthy number of carries (14-18) this week, enough to do some damage. He could break off a few big runs if he can get to that second level. The Rams safeties won’t be able to cheat up and will likely be making most of their tackles 5-6 yards beyond the line-of-scrimmage.

Melvin Gordon (LAC); Last week was Austin Ekeler outplaying Melvin, but this week look for Gordon to bounce back in a big way against the Bills. Gordon will line up against a defense that has allowed the 6th most rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) this season. Gordon should get plenty of play on Sunday and turn in a great effort.

Michael Crabtree (Oak); With Carr expected to have a big day on Sunday according to me, Crabtree should be one of the big recipients. The Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Crabtree is the No.23 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and will look to climb the board on Sunday.

Nelson Agholor (Phi); The Eagles wide receiver has been a quiet surprise this season, scoring in five of his first seven games. He’s been off the past two games, but he’s got a tasty matchup on Sunday against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers. I am expecting Agholor to make at least one trip to pay dirt.

Travis Kelce (KC); Quite simply the Giants defense has played the worst against opposing tight ends this season. Kelce will matchup against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards (632 yards) and the most touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends; sounds like a big day coming for Travis.

That's My Take.
~David Ortega

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October 19th 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's Thursday night Football and there's nothing like it in the Black-Hole! It's the Raiders and the Chiefs tonight in a pivotal AFC West Divisional Clash. Smith, Carr, Cooper, and Hunt, the stars are out and it should be a good one, so get your pop-corn ready!

"Carr will need to do more than dink and dunk tonight, if the Raiders are to have success!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders quarterback has been banged up this season. He returned last week, but did not look like his normal self, dinking and dunking against the Chargers. Carr’s going to need a bigger game tonight for the Raiders to come out on top.

"Raiders will need to feed Lynch a heavy load of carries tonight!! by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Marshawn Lynch has been significantly under-used thus far this season. He’s topped 13 carries just once this season back in Week 1. The Raiders need to give Lynch more carries tonight so he can switch to Beast Mode.

"Sleeper tonight could be Cooper, if he can hang on to a couple of passes!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper has not been good this season, but this kid is just too talented to be bad. The Chiefs defense can be had and Cooper has the skills to have them, he just needs plays. I expect the Raiders to take a few shots with Cooper tonight.

"Crabtree should be in for a big night, especially in the Red-Zone" by @FantsySprtsHome

As I mentioned, this Chiefs secondary (25th most passing yards allowed this season) can be had. Crabtree is a Carr favorite especially close the endzone. Look for Crab to find paydirt in this one.

"Could it be another big night for the No.4 fantasy TE Kelce in Primetime?" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Chiefs tight end has played well this season on the big stage. In his last two starts in Prime Time he’s been dominant and the last time he faced the Raiders he torched them for 5 catches and 101 receiving yards. Kelce is a big part of the Chiefs passing game, so expect to see a lot of Red-87.

"Kelce has been big his last two night games; 15/209/1" by @FantsySprtsHome

It’s worth noting Kelce’s last two games under the lights, he’s been targeted 19 times. In these high profile scenarios it seems Andy Reid likes to utilize his big pass catching tight end.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 4 WR Rankings

Wide Receivers

1. Julio Jones

2. Antonio Brown

3. AJ Green

4. Odell Beckham Jr

5. Keenan Allen

6. DeAndre Hopkins

7. Stefon Diggs

8. Mike Evans

9. Michael Thomas

10. Brandin Cooks

11. Dez Bryant

12. Alshon Jeffery

13. Demaryius Thomas

14. Tyreek Hill

15. Amari Cooper

16. Jarvis Landry

17. Golden Tate

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Larry Fitzgerald

20. TY Hilton

21. Doug Baldwin

22. Devante Parker

23. Michael Crabtree

24. Emmanuel Sanders

25. Adam Thielen

26. Chris Hogan

27. Pierre Garcon

28. Rishard Matthews

29. Marquise Lee

30. Martavis Bryant

Julio Jones leads the band this week. He’s been held quiet (no touchdowns) through the first three weeks (No.23 fantasy WR), but will look to get things going this week. He’s listed as questionable, so you’ll want to check his injury status before game-time. But if he’s out there, he’s my number one this week matched against the Bills 9th ranked pass defense that’s allowed the 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers.

I’ve got the Chargers receiver Keenan Allen coming in at No.5 this week. Allen sees a healthy diet of targets each week averaging 9.3 per game and this week’s matchup is right up his alley. The Chargers face the Eagles this week and Allen will be lining up against a secondary that has allowed the most receptions (49) to opposing receivers this season.

Slotted right behind Allen is the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He’s the most targeted receiver in the league and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. The Titans allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, so I like Hopkins chances at getting plenty of looks on Sunday.

Stefon Diggs is the No.1 fantasy WR through three weeks and he’s had success in the past against the Lions. I like his chances this Sunday even with quarterback Case Keenum under center. The Lions don’t shut down allowing the 10th most receptions to opposing receivers. Diggs has been efficient and effective and will be looking to build off his huge week 3 performance.

I’ve got the Dolphins receivers (both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker) slotted a little higher this week. They’ll be playing in London against a Saints defense that has struggled this season against the pass. I have a feeling this matchup is going to be filled with a lot of points. Landry should see a large volume of short passes to carry his value, while Parker may get his hands on a long score this week.

One more notable is the Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree. I’ve moved him down considerably this week, since he’ll have a tough task getting open against the Broncos dreaded “No Fly Zone.” The Broncos have not been elite this season, but they have been effective and Crabtree has struggled in the past against Denver.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 25th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Week 3 Sunday Lineup Killers

If you were counting on your big guns to deliver on Sunday, boy were you disappointed in a big way. Fantasy championships are lost this way. Well that may be over-dramatizing things a bit, but if your guys played like this it definitely didn’t help your cause;

The biggest egg laid yesterday in fantasy had to come in the days finale; the Sunday night game between the Raiders and the Redskins. The Raiders did have to travel across the country for this meeting and it looked like quarterback Derek Carr never left the plane; he only passed for 118 yards and threw two interceptions killing most DFS lineups. Fantasy owners can count on Carr bouncing back and he’ll have to quick; up next is the Denver defense.

Like Carr, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (what I considered a borderline QB1/QB2 in Week 3) killed any DFS lineup you played him in. Rivers was the mad bomber on Sunday, but the only problem was several of his long darts went to the other side. Rivers was turnover happy last season, so fantasy owners may want to slow their roll with him for the time being.

Derek Carr: 19 of 31, 118 pa yds, 1 Td, 2 Int

Philip Rivers: 20 of 40, 237 pa yds, 3 Int

Well, we thought he would be the featured back in New England and with 12 carries (most on the team) on Sunday he may be; he’s just part of an offense that features the pass. Without a rushing touchdown on Sunday Gillislee was a big flop finishing with just 31 rushing yards. In this offense, with Gillislee there are going to be Sundays like this. He’s a boom or bust better suited for standard leagues.

And just like Gillislee, Broncos running back CJ Anderson is better suited for the ground game. Anderson has never been a heavy volume pass catcher, just 4 catches leading into the contest, so when he’s held in check on the ground (as he was on Sunday) his numbers will disappoint. Fortunately for owners, the Broncos line has improved, so we should see this turn of event too often.

For those of us that expected a heavy workload for Titans running back Derrick Henry, not only did that not come to fruition (just 13 carries), but it you say DeMarco Murray too you were equally disappointed.

Mike Gillislee: 31 ru yds

CJ Anderson: 36 ru yds, 2 rec, 7 rec yds

Derrick Henry: 54 ru yds, 10 rec yds

There were a couple of big disappointments at the receiver spot in week 3 and amongst the notables were a couple of Raiders Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The pair combined for just 2 catches and 13 receiving yards; not exactly what the fantasy doctor ordered. These two should get things turned around, but fantasy owners may have to be patient with a week 4 meeting against the Broncos coming up.

Jamison Crowder: 6 rec, 52 rec yds, 1 Fum

Alshon Jeffery: 4 rec, 56 rec yds

Amari Cooper: 1 catch, 6 rec yds

Michael Crabtree: 1 catch, 7 rec yds

Sunday week 3 was not a good day for tight ends, several starters came up short in disappointing fashion including the Packers Martellus Bennett; just 3 catches for 12 yards. Bennett has been targeted 21 times in three games, but the majority of his routes are short patterns and safety valves not producing much for owners. He may have been considered a bottom half TE1, but until the Packers move him downfield more,he’s just a TE2 with a low ceiling.

Martellus Bennett: 3 catches, 12 rec yds

Kyle Rudolph: 1 catch, 4 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 2 rec, 16 rec yds, 1 Fum

Coby Fleener: 1 catch, 21 rec yds

Hunter Henry: 0 catches, 0 targets

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 20th 2017

Wednesday Late Night Edition

My Week 3 WR Rankings (PPR)

1. Mike Evans

2. Antonio Brown

3. Julio Jones

4. AJ Green

5. Michael Crabtree

6. Keenan Allen

7. Michael Thomas

8. Odell Beckham Jr

9. Brandin Cooks

10. Dez Bryant

11. Davante Adams

12. Tyreek Hill

13. Amari Cooper

14. Stefon Diggs

15. DeAndre Hopkins

16. Kelvin Benjamin

17. Doug Baldwin

18. Golden Tate

19. Demaryius Thomas

20. Jordy Nelson

21. Alshon Jeffery

22. Larry Fitzgerald

23. Martavis Bryant

24. Devante Parker

25. Terrelle Pryor

26. JJ Nelson

27. Emmanuel Sanders

28. Jarvis Landry

29. Chris Hogan

30. Randall Cobb

After a strong opening weekend for Mike Evans and the Bucs, I’m not expecting any slow down this week. Evans will face a tough Vikings secondary, but one that can be had. In two weeks the Vikings defense has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 3rd most receptions.

After two weeks, the Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen is the No.6 fantasy receiver in PPR and peaks at No.6 on my rankings this week. The Chargers wide out is powered by his 20 targets in two games generating 14 catches for 135 yards and a score. Fantasy owners can count on another busy Sunday for Allen squaring up against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 4th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.

A little further down the list is DeAndre Hopkins. I’m actually not down on him, he’s just having a tough time with yards after the catch and scoring opportunities. He’s still worthy of a weekly starting slot in fantasy, leading all receivers with 29 targets through two weeks. He should continue to see a huge volume and this week facing the Patriots (allow 4th most fantasy points to opposing receivers) it could pay off.

Making the Top-30 this week for me is Cardinals wide receiver JJ Nelson. Through two weeks he’s by far been the most productive receiver in the Cards passing game. This Sunday Nelson will draw a Cowboys secondary that has allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing wide receivers at the 2nd highest success rate (69% min 30 targets).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 10th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My DFS Play Today

So for those of you that play daily fantasy sports (DFS), here’s one of my favorite plays for today

My DFS Lineup (Fan Duel)

QB-Derek Carr ($7,700): The Titans will play tough against the run today, forcing Carr and the offense to stick to the air; which is good for DFS. I like Carr’s price against a secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2016.

RB-Bilal Powell ($6,300): This could be a popular play in DFS today as the Bills were awful against the run last season. Powell may be the Jets best player on offense today and he could see a heavy workload. He’s got a fair value today on Fan Duel and could cash in a couple of scores.

RB-Todd Gurley ($7,300): This should be meaty matchup for Gurley as he could see upwards of 25 carries against a Colts run defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2016.

WR-Michael Crabtree ($6,900): He’s a favorite target of quarterback Derek Carr and is a nice stack at his price. The Colts secondary will be short-handed today without their best cover corner (Vontae Davis); expect Crabtree to find pay-dirt.

WR-AJ Green ($8,400): Green is a beast and should see a hefty volume of targets today. Green did not face Baltimore last season (injury), but in his last five starts against the Ravens Green has scored 6 touchdowns. He loves to torch the Ravens.

WR-Doug Baldwin ($7,500): The Seahawks are on the road to face the Packers in what could be a high scoring affair. Baldwin will line up against a Packers secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2016. Get him in your lineup!

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,900): This is a great price for Ertz against a Redskins defense that allowed the second most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016. Ertz is likely to be a popular play, but at his price he’s a must.

K-Dan Bailey ($4,900): To be honest, because you have to start a kicker I am starting Bailey. He has a nice price and the last time he faced the Giants at home he posted 17 fantasy points.

Def-Texans ($5,100): The Texans are at home and draw a very poor Jaguars offense that ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses in 2016. This looks to be a prime matchup for JJ Watt and company.

That’s My Lineup for Week 1.

~David Ortega