FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 3

September 25th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3:

Sunday’s Heroes

What a wild weekend NFL Sunday week 3 was. 70 points scored in a single game, by one team. Three players on the same team with over 30 fantasy points, and two running backs from the same team scoring four touchdowns each. It was a day filled with great performances by some great players.

These were the NFL Week 3 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Justin Herbert (Chargers) - The Chargers signal caller was impressive on the road, leading the Bolts to a big and much needed week 3 win. Herbert was spectacular, completing 40 of 47 passes (85.1% completion) for 405 yards passing with 3 touchdowns. He finished the day as the fantasy QB1.

RB, De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - It was a “Welcome to the NFL” and breakout game for the Dolphins rookie running back as he ran rampant all over the Broncos defense. The Rook was Mister Big play all afternoon with impressive runs and scoring three times, including a scintillating display of speed on a 67-yard rushing scamper to the house. On the day, Achane rushed for 203 yards on 18 carries (11.3 yards per carry), adding 4 receptions and 30 yards receiving. He finished the day as the fantasy RB1.

WR, Keenan Allen (Chargers) - It only makes sense with the big day that Herbert turned in this afternoon, that Keenan would factor big. The Chargers wide receiver was ridiculous on Sunday, not only setting career highs with receptions (18) and yards (215) in a single game, but he also threw his first NFL touchdown pass to fellow teammate wide receiver Mike Williams. Allen was the fantasy WR1 for week 3.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) - The Lions rookie tight end was huge on Sunday contributing big in the passing game and the team’s win at home. LaPorta started quickly in this one and was targeted often throughout. The rookie finished the day with 8 grabs, for 84 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown reception on 11 targets.

IDP, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - The Ravens safety was special on Sunday in a losing cause against the Colts. Hamilton turned in stellar performance recording 7 solo tackles, two tackles for a loss, and three 3 sacks. The Ravens defensive back also added three QB hits, a pass defense, and a forced fumble for good measure. An outstanding week 3 performance on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

(Week 2)

With the Kickoff to NFL Sunday week 2 just a few hours away, I’m getting fresh batteries for my remotes, breaking out the second TV, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), checking my fantasy lineups, making some last minute adjustments, and tuning into the latest fantasy shows for injury updates.

There’s a lot to take in and the clock to kickoff is counting down. On top of the inventory check on cold beverages and football foods supply for the day, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I anxiously await for NFL Sunday to kick off;

1. “James gets cooking” - I like what I saw from the Bills running back on Monday night. Although he did not put up great numbers, his snap share and his usage indicated to me, he’s the guy. It’s only a matter of time before he gets cooking and week 2 versus the Raiders is as good a time as any.

2. “Joe Cool to Chase” - The Bengals passing offense was stagnant in week one, but you had a tough Browns defense and horrible weather. It looks like the weather won’t be a factor this week

3. Henry is still King” - At least for another Sunday, Titans running back will show why he is King. The Chargers are traveling back east for an early game, so this sets up as one of those games where they could fall flat. You know the Titans will lean hard on Henry, especially with a banged up D-Hop (DeAndre Hopkins).

4. “Big Sunday for Big Mike” - The Chargers wideout was quiet in week one and as per the norm, he’ll bounce back this week with a big performance. It’s a good matchup for Big Mike and three times last season when he was targeted fewer than 5 times, he averaged nearly 22 fantasy points.

5. “ASB & Lions keep prowling” - When was the last time the Lions started out 2-0? How about 2023? The Lions will be on the prowl today squaring off with the Seahawks. This matchup looks like a great opportunity for Goff to ASB (Amon-Ra St. Brown) to be called a couple of times. The Seahawks secondary was torched in week one.

6. “Texans not out of Woods” - It’s not surprising to see Robert Woods still hanging around in the NFL, but after the past two quiet seasons I hardly expected to hear his name called again. Now he didn’t light up the scoreboard last week, but he did turn in a solid 6 catch, 57 yards receiving performance. The glaring statistics were his 10 targets and 75.3% snap count. He may not have much fantasy relevance leading into the 2023 campaign, but those numbers might say otherwise.

7. “Mooney is money” - DJ Moore who? Did everyone forget about Mooney? Mooney was a 1,000 yard receiver for the Bears in 2021 and before going down to injury in 2022 he was a primary target for quarterback Justin Fields. Fields trust him and knows he’s money. Don’t count him out.

8. “Waller is winning” - The Giants tight end doesn’t carry an injury designation leading into Sunday. Fantasy owners can grab your popcorn and get ready to see what all the hype during training camp was all about.

9. “Sunday is Deebo Time” - It’s rivalry Sunday, Rams and Niners and that means Deebo time. The Niners wideout has scored in four of their last five meetings, including 5 total touchdowns. He was relatively quiet in week one, but against the Rams I expect a lot of noise from the playmaker.

10. “Jeudy will bring the Juice” - He may be on a pitch count, but no question when he’s on the field he’ll make it count. One element missing last Sunday from the Broncos offense was explosiveness. Jeudy has great speed and can be electric, on Sunday he will bring the juice.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th, 2023

Sunday Morning Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five 

(Draft Kings)

QB-Justin Herbert, LAC ($6,900) - Love the matchup here against the Dolphins. A lot of offense in this one and with the Chargers at home Herbert is a strong play (Dolphins D ranked 31st versus fantasy QB last season). Herbert threw for over 4,700 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns in 2022. Great play today.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr, JAC ($6,900) - At his price, I love Etienne. I like the Jags in this one and believe Etienne could be featured down the stretch to close this one out. Either way, he should be in line for a busy and productive day against the Colts (ranked 22nd versus RBs in 2022).

WR-Chris Godwin, TBB ($5,900) - Godwin seems like a great value safe play. Last season he corralled 104 balls on 142 targets. Even though the team made a change at quarterback in the offseason, expect Godwin to get plenty of work against a suspect Vikings secondary (ranked 31st versus WRs in 2022).

WR-Mike Williams, LAC ($5,700) - This matchup is in line to be a shootout and at his cost, Williams is a great play to pair up with Herbert. Last season against the Phins in week 14, Williams grabbed 6 passes for 116 yards and a score. Strong play today.

TE-Juwan Johnson, NOS ($3,900) -  Johnson could be looking at a big day against the Titans today. Last season the Titans D ranked 30th versus opposing tight ends in fantasy. At his current value, Johnson looks like a great sneaky play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
September 8th, 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

I am reading the Twitter updates, checking all of the popular sites for fantasy football news, and from these sources, I have some Week one notes to share when considering setting your Fantasy Football lineup…

(RB) Chris Carson in the Seahawks heavy run offense versus the Bengals defense today. Cincinnati allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season (NFL scoring).

(RB)  Leonard Fournette against the Chiefs defense. Last season the Chiefs allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs (NFL scoring), including 4.9 yards per carry and 6 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most in the league).

(WR) Chris Godwin against the Niners secondary today, with Mike Evans (slated to play) under the weather. Last season the Niners defense allowed a league high 27 receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers.

(RB) Le’Veon Bell against the Bills defense today. The Bills defense surrendered the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2018, including 21 total touchdowns (2nd most in the league).


My Fave DFS Lineup Week One

Every week I play DFS, because let’s face it, I am a football addict and love the NFL. I watch the games, I root for the players, and every week I piss a few dollars away; but it’s fun. Well the playing part, not the pissing dollars away. Here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday Week One!
Fave DFS play Week One

QB-Kirk Cousin, Min; love the matchup, last season Falcons allowed most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (NFL).

RB-Chris Carson, Sea; Carson has a tasty matchup today against the Bengals.

RB-Kerryon Johnson, Det; This is a great opportunity and favorable matchup for Johnson, hoping to see 20-25 touches.

WR-Chris Godwin, TB; This matchup could be a shootout, Godwin could be in line for 8-10 targets.

WR-Mike Williams, LAC; defense will be focused on the Chargers other weapons as well, Williams should see a number of red-zone opportunities today.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr; A gambling move, but can’t resist the opportunity to own a share of OBJ. He seems like a good bet to find pay-dirt today.

TE-Delanie Walker, Ten; Walker is healthy and has a great matchup against a Browns secondary that allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season (NFL scoring)

Flex-Davlin Cook, Min; Cook looks healthy and could be looking at a big season. He should get off to a fast start today against a Falcons defense that allowed 4th highest fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2018.

Def-Seattle; I like this matchup for the Seahawks, especially at home today.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 14th, 2011 Monday

David’s Daily Digest

The Most Notable Fantasy Players of 2011

The 2010 season produced a long list of new names to the fantasy world, names that owners will be coveting greatly come fantasy draft day. These are just more the studs we’ll be talking about on fantasy draft day 2011.

RB-Peyton Hillis (Browns)
The Browns not only found a starter in running back Peyton Hillis, they found a superstar. Hillis was merely a back-up and special teamer in Denver, but did show some flash back in 2008 when given the opportunity. This past season he was handed the reins and ran with it he did. Hillis finished the 2010 season with 1,177 yards on the ground and 11 rushing touchdowns. More of a power runner he still averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 61 balls for another 477 yards receiving. With numbers like he produced this past season, Hillis appears to be a strong top 10 fantasy candidate in 2011.

WR-Mike Williams (Seahawks)
The Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll rediscovered a college jewel and brought him to Seattle when he signed wide receiver Mike Williams. Maybe all he needed was a little motivation, but whatever it was, Carroll found the formula and Williams was reborn. The Seahawks wide receiver bounced back from the abyss in 2010 to snag 65 balls for 735 yards and two scores. Not bad for someone who had not caught a pass in over two seasons. His numbers weren’t spectacular, but he played well enough at times for folks to take notice; he could be a top 25 fantasy receiver in 2011 (especially PPR leagues).

WR-Hakeem Nicks (Giants)
The Giants 2nd year receiver exploded in 2010 with a huge season catching 79 passes for 1,052 yards receiving, and 11 touchdowns; led the team in all three categories. Nicks was a big time play-maker last season; with great hands and great speed he can only get better. Nicks will undoubtedly and rightfully fall into the top 10 for wide receivers in this summer’s fantasy drafts.

RB-Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
The Chargers less notable, but more productive running back Mike Tolbert earned his way onto the fantasy radar last season. With rookie Ryan Matthews banged up for quite a bit of the season, Tolbert was given more opportunity to carry the rock and he did it well. Tolbert was an effective running option in San Diego tallying 182 carries for the season. He also collected 735 yards on the ground and scored 11 touchdowns. He’ll see a slight decrease in touches next season if Matthews stays healthy, but he’s still fantasy worthy in deep leagues.

TE-Aaron Hernandez (Patriots)
The Patriots tight end enjoyed a pretty good rookie campaign, but it was one that could have been much more productive had he remained healthy. Hernandez played in 14 games last season recording 45 receptions for 563 yards and six touchdowns. With a healthy campaign in 2011 and Tom Brady tossing the pill, Hernandez should be a possible top 10 option for fantasy owners.

WR-Mike Williams (Buccaneers)
The other Mike Williams over in Tampa was not too bad himself last season. In fact the rookie was sensational catching 65 balls for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. These numbers were not quite the level of the elite, but they were more than good enough to have owners looking at him much earlier in fantasy drafts this summer. With an up and coming quarterback (Josh Freeman), Williams looks like he can be a very good fantasy player in 2011.


Check back for more of my digest and more notes on fantasy players in 2011.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 15th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

The Divisional Round

Jay Cutler Could Have a Quiet Afternoon
…Sunday is expected to be cold and perfect football weather to grind the ball and that should suit all of the Chicago Bears just fine; just maybe not a few fantasy owners looking for some production from Jay Cutler.

The Bears have been playing very well lately and a big reason has been a solid running game and more balanced offense. Sunday’s matchup with the Seahawks could be all about the Bears playing championship style football; great defense and a solid run game. Cutler is only averaging 192 yards passing and 30 passes per game in his last three starts.

With some breeze and snow on Sunday Cutler could still have success in the air, but don’t look for him to put the ball up often (unless the Bears are behind)
(My thoughts; 20 of 28 passing, 185 yards passing, one touchdown)


Marshawn Lynch Could Hit A Wall On Sunday
...the Bears boast the leagues number two run defense and on Sunday against “the Beast” (Marshawn Lynch) they will have a chance to prove it. Last week against the Saints Lynch was able to run rough-shot through the defense, but that could be very different on Sunday against da Bears.

The Monsters of the Midway have a lot of speed and athleticism in the middle and could make it very difficult for Lynch to find any space. In their first meeting this season the Seahawks running back was only able to muster 44 yards on 17 carries; he did however find the end-zone once.

After his impressive performance last week, there’s no question Lynch will anchor the ground game, but if he stalls against the Urlacher and company back up running back Justin Forsett could steal some action.
(My thoughts; 16 carries, 55 yards, no touchdowns)

Mike Williams Could Be Big On Sunday
...even if there is snow or the wind gusts the Seahawks are going to have to find a way to throw the ball against the Bears. It’s no secret that most teams find it difficult to move the ball on the ground against Chicago and on Sunday the Seahawks will probably learn that painful fact. If the snow and Bears defense does ground Seattle’s run game, Matt Hasselbeck is going to have to get the ball to his big receiver Mike Williams.

Williams is a huge target and effective receiver in the pass game for Seattle and last time around against these same Bears, he and his quarterback had great success. In week six Williams grabbed 10 passes for 123 yards to lead all receivers in the game.

There’s no question Williams has good hands and because of his tremendous size should have a distinct advantage on Sunday against the Bears 20th ranked pass defense. The only question will be can Hasselbeck get him the ball.
(My thoughts; 8 catches, 105 yards receiving, one touchdowns)

Just my take

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 13th, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

Now that the playoffs are in full swing and have entered the second round, for those of us still enjoying this fantasy season, we are really looking at some interesting matchups this weekend. With three of the four games being played outdoors, the Falcons-Packers matchup at the Georgia Dome could be the only one with any real fireworks for fantasy owners…

Fantasy Notes:

MIKE WILLIAMS LOOKING FOR A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
In their first and only meeting earlier this season the Seahawks had some success in the air against the Bears 20th ranked pass defense. One of the keys was wide receiver “big” Mike Williams who caught 10 passes for 123 yards.
My Fantasy Read:
The Seahawks will be facing a very stout and fast Bears run defense; the ground game could stall greatly on Sunday setting up a lot of passes from Hasselbeck to Williams. Williams is a big target with sure hands and could have great success against the Bears under-sized secondary; even if cornerback Charles Tillman (6’1”) matches up with Williams (6’5”) he is giving away four inches.

MATT FORTE COULD STEAL THE SHOW
The Bears know how to play hard ball in the snow and with temperatures expecting to fall on Sunday, it sounds like running back Matt Forte could be in business for lots of work. In the first matchup the Bears called 45 pass plays and just ran the ball 14 times; it doesn’t look like that will be the case this time around.
My Fantasy Read:
Forte finished the regular season strong averaging 17 carries per game and 98 yards rushing in his last three starts; he also caught 12 balls for 116 yards in his last two. For the Bears running back, cold is good; Forte could be a featured component in the Bears offensive attack on Sunday. Fantasy owners are singing, let it snow, let it snow, let is snow.

AARON RODGERS GEARING UP FOR A SATURDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
The Packers are on a roll and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a big reason. Their last three wins have come against the Giants, Bears, and Eagles. In those games Rodgers has thrown eight touchdowns for 813 yards while completing 62 of 92 passes.
My Fantasy Read:
In their first matchup Rodgers enjoyed some success in the air completing 26 of 35 passes for 344 yards, but was only able to find the endzone just once. Rodgers has got the hot hand and has been playing extremely well; it will be tough for the Falcons 22nd ranked defense to keep him out of the end-zone this time around.

THE STEELERS GROUND GAME COULD GO M.I.A.
The Ravens defense has been playing very well against the run as of late; aside from Jamaal Charles’ 41 yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Chiefs were only able to gain 57 yards the rest of the way. In their previous three games the Ravens run defense has been even better allowing just 73 yards and 3.08 yards per carry.
My Fantasy Read:
The Steelers have the league’s 11th ranked run offense (120.2 yard per game) but have only been able to muster 69 yards per game on the ground in two meeting with the Ravens. Big Ben (Roethlisberger) missed their first meeting, but in the second go round he threw 38 passes, completing 22 for 253 yards and a touchdown. With the elements and the Raven’s dictating a tough grudge match that will likely yield few yards on the ground this Saturday, the game is likely to fall into the hands and rely on the arm of Big Ben.

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 8th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Wild-Card Saturday

Bush Will Need a Big Game
….the Saints will be minus running backs Pierre Thomas (injured reserve) and Chris Ivory (injured reserve) throughout the playoffs, so it now becomes the Reggie Bush show. Bush had one of his productive games in the team’s finale against the Buccaneers, but he’ll need to elevate his game in the post season if the Saints are to go deep. Bush still has plenty of explosion and speed and can also be a versatile weapon utilized in the passing game; he caught 34 passes in eight games this season.

With their depleted backfield entering the post season Bush figures to see an increased role and become more of a featured back in the Saints offense. He’ll get plenty of work today against the Seahawks 21st ranked run defense. Bush averaged just 4.2 yards per carry this season, but in the season finale he ran for 70 yards on just 9 carries. He’ll need that kind of running today against Seattle and he should get plenty of touches to do it.

The Seahawks have struggled this season with the ground game surrendering 16 runs of 20 yards or more, so look for Bush to break at least one big one today.
(My thoughts; 18 carries, 110 yards, 5 receptions, 25 yards, two touchdowns)

Williams Could Play Big Against Saints
….the Seahawks don’t have the firepower offensively to match the Saints offense, but what they do have you can bet they will use. The team recently signed wide receiver Mike Williams to a three year extension acknowledging they believe the kid is talented and can play; his 65 receptions also say the same.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck believes this too and will be looking for his big target all afternoon against a very tough secondary. The Saints have not done well with takeaways in the secondary this season, so you can bet Hasselbeck will be taking his shots. Williams is not a fast target, but should not have trouble finding space underneath coverage and over the middle of the field.

The Seahawks should be able to move the ball on the ground, but could struggle some in the red-zone today.
(My thoughts: 8 catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns)


It’s Manning Versus the World (Jets)
….there are not a lot of folks picking this Colts team to get very far, but I am pretty sure quarterback Peyton Manning is going to do everything he can this evening to push the Colts into the next round. It’s been no secret about Manning’s struggles and 17 interceptions this season, but while he has had his lumps, lets’ not forget the 4,700 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.

One way or another Peyton just finds a way to get it done and has done so for the past nine straight seasons. It’s not always been peas and carrots in the playoffs for the 13 year veteran, but he’s coming into the post season playing well and he has to be confident with his first round matchup. These are the same Jets he sliced apart a year ago and tonight you can bet it will be all about Manning versus Rex Ryan’s defense.

You can forget all the talk about a running game; the Jets know they have to stop Peyton and the Colts know they will live or die this evening with Peyton. This season Manning averaged 42 passes per game and will use no fewer this evening against the Jets; it will be a big night.
(My thoughts; 28 of 44 passing, 325 yards passing, three touchdowns)

Other notes…

…tight end John Carlson could get some play today against the Saints with coverage focused on the outside (Williams and Obomanu). Carlson only saw 58 targets all season (about four per game), but could be much busier today matched up with Saints linebackers.

….Marshawn Lynch should see considerable work early while the game remains close, but figures to disappear in the second half once the Saints open things up. Justin Forsett could end up seeing more work and fantasy points, especially in PPR Leagues.

…the Colts know they will have to stop the Jets run game. With Sanchez struggling under center (just one touchdown in his last five starts), the Colts defense will force the 2nd year starter to make plays; Sanchez could be in for a rough ride tonight.