FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019

Week 3: Four Horsemen

The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
September 13th, 2019

My Week One Reaction & notes:

• Not going to over-react with Jones, Adams, and Rodgers
• Will need lots of patience with Bears offense
• Robinson and Cohen are PPR stars.
• Dalvin Cook-good start, he’s an RB1, Top 5 fantasy RB
• Cousins; quiet game, game script, still productive
• Falcons pass defense better, run defense not so good
• Ryan looked rusty, needed more snaps, will bounce back week 2
• Jones got his work (11 targets), but not numbers; he’ll be fine.
• Ridley with a nice week 1, could be huge in week 2.
• Watched Eagles footage, believing in Wentz
• Give him an arm (Wentz) and DeSean still electric
• McLaurin looks like a deep deadly weapon.
• The John Brown myth continues to grow and may be real
• Like Singletary’s role to grow going forward; Waiver or trade target
• Chris Thompson is PPR magic with 10 targets again
• Hockenson is a waiver or trade target, if you can deal; playmaker in the making
• Lamar looked good as a running back, even better as a passer.
• Adnrews, high volume safety blanket, borderline TE1.
• Sammy Watkins is a hot rising stock, will continue to rise for now.
• All Rams wide receivers are in play in 2019
• Garoppolo a little shaky, but another game under his belt and another win.
• Where is Steelers tight end Vance McDonald?
• Where is the Steelers offense.
• The Goat. And they have AB joining them.
• Derek Carr looks sharp; year two under Gruden, what a difference.
• This Darren Waller kid looks like the real deal.
• It’s the Lindsay-Freeman show in the Broncos backfield.
• Flacco looked pretty good; stood tall, looked poised, and still has arm strength.
• Welcome to 2019 Courtland Sutton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Sold! Just call me Jack

I wasn’t buying the hype at the start of the NFL Training Camps, but with the social media buzz and 2019 season outlook, it’s really tough for me to stay off the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. Sure expectations are high this season in Cleveland and sure there will be a lot of pressure, but it’s hard to deny Mayfield has the tools and now an elite weapon in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Add OBJ to the likes of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Nick Chubb, and tight end David Njoku and this offense looks loaded. The Browns team may not live up to all of the Super Bowl hype this season, but this offense looks poised to put up serious fantasy numbers and with Mayfield calling the signals, I am drinking the Kool-aid even at his current ADP 66.0 overall (FFC ).

I remember it was either last season or the season before when Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was clocked with one of the fastest open field run times during a game. During week 3 preseason against the Dolphins Fournette looked spry and quick. There’s no doubt, he has the size, the power, and the tools to be a dominant runner in the league, but he needs to stay healthy. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Fournette has missed 11 games. His health would be my only hesitation, but he looked good enough to be worth risk; coming off the board at RB13 with an ADP of 24.5 (according to FFC), I’m buying me some shares.

Despite the arrival of running back Carlos Hyde to the Texans, I still expect to see Duke Johnson to play the role of the lead back. It’s a great situation and opportunity for Duke to finally showcase and prove he can be the featured back. In his college days Johnson was the bell-cow in south beach (University of Miami). In his final season with the Hurricanes Johnson logged 280 touches for 2,073 yards (1,652 rushing, 421 receiving) of total offense. It's a big step up in the NFL, but through his first four season, Johnson has yet to miss a game. I believe Duke has the talent and now the opportunity to be a Top-20 fantasy running back. I’ll buy that.

After watching the Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders return to action this preseason (the team's fourth game) and having seen some of his practice highlight footage, I am sold on the 10 year veteran. Last season Sanders was the number 23 fantasy receiver (full PPR) and returns in 2019, as the team's clear number one option. Even though the team seems to be geared more toward a run-first concept, I believe the combination of quarterback Joe Flacco-to-Sanders could result in some nice production. He’s currently at ADP 87.3, WR34 (FFC), and as good as he has looked with Flacco, he’s moving up my rankings and I will be buying what he’s selling.

I was originally buying into the running back situation in Kansas City, but with the recent changes (addition of LeSean McCoy) in the last 24 hours, I don’t have any idea where I am leaning. With these backs, I am treading lightly, although I have to believe Damien Williams will still be an integral piece of the offense.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
August 24th, 2019

In These Hands We Trust

Let’s begin with this, my numbers are not scientific, nor are they prophetic, they are merely my opinion based on my eye test and last season’s production. With that much said and not trying to say too much, these are my WR rankings for the start of 2019 season.

At the top of the board is Mr. Number one himself, DeAndre Hopkins (MR#1WR). In full PPR Hopkins finished as the number wide receiver last season, after finishing second by a half point in 2017. Hopkins has hands of glue and he is Mister Consistent. He’ll see his normal 170-plus targets and should be back at the top once again.

Right behind Hopkins, filling the number two slot is the Packers Davante Adams (MR#2WR). I actually like Adams a ton; he could easily unseat Hopkins for top billing. Adams will have the luxury of catching passes from a healthy Aaron Rodgers and after coming off a season with career highs across the board (catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets), he’s a shoe-in to post large numbers in 2019.

Yes, the top two receivers have great outlooks for 2019 and both are appropriately ranked, but my number four fantasy receiver, the Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr (MR#4WR) deserves a huge mention here. It just feels like the perfect storm this season for OBJ, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason. With the gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield under center, it feels like OBJ is going to be on Sportscenter a lot this season.

The First 12 pairs of hands
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Davante Adams
3.Julio Jones
4.O. Beckham Jr
5.Michael Thomas
6.Tyreek Hill
7.Smith-Schuster
8.Mike Evans
9.Keenan Allen
10.Antonio Brown
11.Adam Thielen
12.T.Y. Hilton

Leading the second set of 12 is the Buccaneers receiver (MR#13WR) Chris Godwin; in Godwin I trust. He’s been one of the talks of the offseason, I’ve been listening to. Godwin had a very nice 2nd season starting 5 games and finishing with 59 receptions, 842 yards receiving, and 7 touchdowns. Now in his third year with the Bucs, this is expected to be his breakout. In four of his last five games in 2018, Godwin had no fewer than six targets per contest with quarterback Jameis Winston under center; the Bucs starting Quarterback for 2019. Godwin is a rising star.

The two Rams receivers, Brandin Cooks (MR#16WR) and Robert Woods (MR#17WR) are basically bookends; you can flip-flop these two. The Rams high-octane offense presents plenty of opportunity for both, even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Last season Woods finished as the 11th scoring fantasy receiver, with Cooks checking in at 13 (full PPR). I believe the return of Kupp will knock these two down slightly, but both are worth drafting as your WR2.

Ankle surgery has me avoiding Bengals receiver A.J. Green (MR#24WR) in my drafts, but he is going to return at some point this season; expected to only miss a few games. If you can get him late, he has the potential of being a solid late grab and could be a difference maker. But he is coming off surgery, which is always risky.

The Second set of hands
13.Chris Godwin
14.Stefon Diggs
15.Julian Edelman
16.Brandin Cooks
17.Robert Woods
18.Jarvis Landry
19.Amari Cooper
20.Cooper Kupp
21.Kenny Golladay
22.Tyler Lockett
23.Calvin Ridley
24.A.J. Green

Some notables that just missed the cut, Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd (MR#25WR), Chargers receiver Mike Williams (MR#26WR) and Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery (MR#27WR). I really like Williams this season, easily see him cracking the top 24. The same for Boyd, with Green expected to miss time he’ll be the go-to receiver for quarterback Andy Dalton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition

August 18th, 2019

The Draft Weekend

I’m playing a little catch up here as this past weekend was my annual Draft day weekend marathon. It has become tradition, in this kid’s (I’m not a kid - and don’t ask) neighborhood home leagues to partake in two deep fantasy drafts on the same weekend. We’ve been doing this, a number of years now and it’s been quite the endeavor, but an experience well worth it. 

Preparation & Podcasts

Like every year, leading up to Draft day, I spend a lot of my free time researching and studying, as much as I can and as much as real life will allow (and that’s not much). I pick up the annual fantasy mags for cheat-sheets and rankings, and I print out the various ADPs and rankings from FFC and Fantasy Pros (two of my favorite sites). I also absorb some of the popular fantasy podcasts & shows, sometimes for the insight and analysis, and sometimes for entertainment, and even sometimes to just get me in fantasy draft mode. 

Draft Day Anxiety

When the day arrives, all bets are off, it’s go time and every fantasy owner for themself. The clock winds down to zero and first owner is on the clock; depending on your spot in the draft, you have time to consider you strategy, the direction you will go, zero running backs to start, heavy wide receivers in the opening rounds, early round reaches, or playing it safe. Even the first pick can cause some anxiety or nervous anxiousness, as it will set the tone for your following picks. 

No matter what that first important decision becomes, keep your eye on the prize, be committed to your decision and construct the best fantasy team that’s ever been put together. Believe in your process, stay the course, and go the distance with determination, focus, grit, and if all else fails, flip a coin. We put some much into this day that will define our upcoming season, the good thing this is, one year from today we can do it all over again. 

Draft Day Picks

My 2019 Fantasy Draft weekend has concluded, and for a while on Saturday it seemed all of my picks were all over the place, from my 2nd round Le’Veon Bell selection to my DK Metcalf selection in the 12th round. I doubled down with quarterback Deshaun Watson in both leagues, taking him in 2nd round in one (8 team league) and the 6th round (10 team league) in the other. 

I also locked up wide receiver Chris Godwin in both leagues; 5th round and 7th round. Both Watson and Godwin were targets of mine, as was running back Aaron Jones. These were players I eyed, and made sure I was able to grab without having to reach further than I was comfortable.

The Results

The first day of drafting was the most relaxed and the group enjoyed the time we took, but 8 hours of drafting can take its toll; good thing it’s only once a year. We all started with high hopes, but with the usual conjecture, speculation, unproven analysis, and good natured ribbing with each pick, the draft lasted and lasted. 

At the conclusion of both drafts, my final take on how my teams looked, I was very satisfied with the balance and depth I achieved. Here’s a look at the early rounds of both.

8-Team League

1.Ertz, Zach

2.Watson, Deshaun

3.Johnson, David

4.Cook, Dalvin

5.Jones, Aaron

6.Diggs, Stefon

7.Godwin, Chris

8.Winston, Jameis

9.White, James

10.Woods, Robert

Notes: This is tight-end league (.2 pts/yard), so Ertz was early, but the second TE off the board. I went heavy with RBs early that I feel with contribute in the pass game very well. This is also a Superflex league which is why I snagged Winston early in the 8th; I think he’s going to be top 10 this season.

10-Team League

1.Odell Beckham Jr

2.Le’Veon Bell

3.Aaron Jones

4.David Montgomery

5.Chris Godwin

6.Deshaun Watson

7.Robby Anderson

8.Vance McDonald

9.Will Fuller

10.Kalen Ballage

Notes: Odell fell to me in the 9th slot of the 1st, so had to grab him, came back with Bell in the 2nd; love his potential heavy volume. I am high on Godwin, so I took him in the 5th and followed him with Watson in the sixth; I think Watson could be top 3 this year. I like McDonald’s potential this season with Bell and Brown out of Pittsburgh, and my Fuller selection is points on points with Watson.

That’s My Draft Day Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition
August 11th, 2019

Fantasy Draft 2019: 
Player Market Exchange is Open

I’ve not usually done this in years past, although heading into every fantasy football season, I am always looking at players like Stocks and Commodities; some you want to buy others you avoid or sell on. Does this sound familiar? It probably does, that’s because it does mirror a lot of those like/dislikes columns you read from the fantasy experts that are put out every pre-season. I just thought this season, I’d join the party and have a little fun with it myself.

So what are typical “Buys” and “Sells?” 

The best I can explain, for the “Buys”, these are not just the players I like, but rather these are players I do like and that I am seeing I can draft where I’d like to take them (currently in mock drafts) and where I am projecting I will take (select) them. 

The sells are not necessarily players I don’t like, to the contrary, I like quite a few of them a lot, very much. But where many of these (sell) players are going in many of the mock drafts I am doing and where they are slotted in current ADP, I don’t like. I am not expecting to draft them there, nor am I likely to reach for them earlier. This season I believe there is enough depth and too much value available in the first 10-12 rounds of your fantasy draft to reach.

So here is a quick list of some of my buys (the players that should be available in your drafts at spots where you can still get value taking them).…

These are two of my favorites, Texans Quarterback Deshaun Watson (current ADP of 6.01 per FFC) and Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (current ADP of 10.5 per FFC). I am very high (top 3 fantasy QB this season) on Watson this season and have found I can grab him around the 5th and early 6th round. I believe Winston will be a mid to top five, QB1 this season and he has been going as late as the 10th-12th rounds.

Another player to Buy that I am excited about this season is Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (current ADP of 4.11 per FFC). His current ADP is about right in my opinion and this talented runner figures prominently in the Broncos offense; he’s going to see more than enough opportunity to finish as a top 20 fantasy running back.

Additional 2019 Buys:
QB, Aaron Rodgers; this will be a big year for A-rod.
QB, Matt Ryan; he returns to the MVP conversation.
RB, Tevin Coleman; no news here. No Mckinnon, he’s on the rise.
RB, Derrius Guice; he’s healthy and love him after the 7th.
WR, Chris Godwin; if he’s my number one WR, I’m okay with that.
WR, Calvin Ridley; can’t teach speed, takes huge steps forward in 2019.
TE, Jorden Reed; as late as he’s going, he’s a steal.

This is my quick list of players that I may avoid or won’t draft, because their value does not match the price (current ADP) in my opinion….

The Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (current ADP of 3.04 per FFC) figures to come back to earth some this season, closing the gap between his fantasy output and say the 4th and 5th fantasy quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, he’s an elite talent, but going as early as the 2nd and 3rd rounds in many drafts, I just don’t see myself taking a QB that early. Now, of course, should he fall a couple of rounds later, I am not wasting a moment to jump all over that.

Holdout Running backs Melvin Gordon (Chargers) and Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) carry too much risk for me to bother using an early draft pick on either. Gordon has an ADP of 3.03 per FFC, which continues to fall; past the 4th round I may consider. Like Gordon, Elliott (current ADP of 1.05 per FFC) is currently holding out, although there’s a feeling he may get a deal done sooner, rather than later. My feeling is I can build my team without the risk and headache.

Additional Sells;
QB, Baker Mayfield; a lot of promise, still going too early.
QB, Kyler Murray; need to see it first, other options available.
RB, Jerick McKinnon; too much risk with that knee.
WR, Antonio Brown; too much noise and distraction, and may not play.
WR, AJ Green; not healthy, going to miss a chunk of games.

That’s my take.
~David G. Ortega