FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Sold! Just call me Jack

I wasn’t buying the hype at the start of the NFL Training Camps, but with the social media buzz and 2019 season outlook, it’s really tough for me to stay off the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. Sure expectations are high this season in Cleveland and sure there will be a lot of pressure, but it’s hard to deny Mayfield has the tools and now an elite weapon in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Add OBJ to the likes of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Nick Chubb, and tight end David Njoku and this offense looks loaded. The Browns team may not live up to all of the Super Bowl hype this season, but this offense looks poised to put up serious fantasy numbers and with Mayfield calling the signals, I am drinking the Kool-aid even at his current ADP 66.0 overall (FFC ).

I remember it was either last season or the season before when Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was clocked with one of the fastest open field run times during a game. During week 3 preseason against the Dolphins Fournette looked spry and quick. There’s no doubt, he has the size, the power, and the tools to be a dominant runner in the league, but he needs to stay healthy. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Fournette has missed 11 games. His health would be my only hesitation, but he looked good enough to be worth risk; coming off the board at RB13 with an ADP of 24.5 (according to FFC), I’m buying me some shares.

Despite the arrival of running back Carlos Hyde to the Texans, I still expect to see Duke Johnson to play the role of the lead back. It’s a great situation and opportunity for Duke to finally showcase and prove he can be the featured back. In his college days Johnson was the bell-cow in south beach (University of Miami). In his final season with the Hurricanes Johnson logged 280 touches for 2,073 yards (1,652 rushing, 421 receiving) of total offense. It's a big step up in the NFL, but through his first four season, Johnson has yet to miss a game. I believe Duke has the talent and now the opportunity to be a Top-20 fantasy running back. I’ll buy that.

After watching the Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders return to action this preseason (the team's fourth game) and having seen some of his practice highlight footage, I am sold on the 10 year veteran. Last season Sanders was the number 23 fantasy receiver (full PPR) and returns in 2019, as the team's clear number one option. Even though the team seems to be geared more toward a run-first concept, I believe the combination of quarterback Joe Flacco-to-Sanders could result in some nice production. He’s currently at ADP 87.3, WR34 (FFC), and as good as he has looked with Flacco, he’s moving up my rankings and I will be buying what he’s selling.

I was originally buying into the running back situation in Kansas City, but with the recent changes (addition of LeSean McCoy) in the last 24 hours, I don’t have any idea where I am leaning. With these backs, I am treading lightly, although I have to believe Damien Williams will still be an integral piece of the offense.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 29th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 8 has begun with two games in the books. I am just running down, my thoughts for Sunday morning, sprinkling a little bit of this and that for fantasy consideration. I don't have a crystal ball or hot-line to Matt Berry for info, so tread with caution;

Stud of the Week

I am all-in with Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen. The great thing here is the matchup against the Patriots and the fact the quarterback Philip Rivers has plenty of other options that should keep the defense honest. Allen has been a target monster at times this season, today could be another double-digit look and big production.

Dud of the Week

I am staying away for Niners running back Carlos Hyde. This is an ugly matchup for the Niners, over-matched on the defensive side facing the Eagles offense and likely to be overwhelmed this week on the offense side matching up against the league's number one rushing defense.

DFS favorites today

Joe Mixon; I like the rookie running back's matchup today. Mixon has been getting the bulk of the workload in the backfield and with today's matchup against the Colts, owners should see significant production in what I predict to be a breakout performance.

Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers and quarterback Cam Newton look to rebound from the ambush at Soldier Field a week ago. Benjamin is going to be a primary target and should get a couple of scoring opportunities today. I like him a lot against the Bucs today.

Diamonds in the Rough

Mack Hollins; the explosive Eagles rookie receiver had one catch last week, but it was a big one; a 64 yard touchdown strike. A risky play in redraft leagues yes (maybe a flier in big DFS tournaments), but I like his chances today to get behind the Niners secondary for another big score.

Marlon Mack; the Colts rookie running back has been trending in the right direction with his snap count. He's a preferred option in the pass game and could potentially see significant play today in a game where the Colts could be playing catch-up most of the way.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

If you are playing DFS this week, both quarterbacks Jared Goff (Rams) and Brian Hoyer (Niners) are to be avoided. While neither faces a dominant defense tonight, we’ve not see enough consistency from either to pull the trigger.

“Goff and Hoyer are off the fantasy radar tonight” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Rams running back Todd Gurley has looked like a pretty good fantasy pick through two weeks. If you’ve invested in his fantasy stock this season, feel confident with his potential gains tonight against the Niners run defense that’s allowed the 9th most rushing yards this season.

“Roll with the Gurley-man on Thursday night. He’ll get the work in to put up numbers.” by @FantsySprtsHome

Niners Carlos Hyde is a Thursday favorite and strong play tonight. The Rams run defense was decimated a week ago and ranks last against running backs, allowing a staggering 295 yards rushing in two games. Hyde ranks as the No.12 fantasy running back in PPR; look out Top-10 and Dr. Jekyll, here comes Hyde.

“Dr. Jekyll better warn the Rams run defense (ranked 30th), here comes Hyde! by @FantsySprtsHome

The only pass catchers I am endorsing tonight, are (Niners) Pierre Garcon and (Rams) Cooper Kupp. Both are highly risky plays and regardless of salary value, I would avoid in DFS. Both could be considered as long shot flex options in larger leagues and only because both will see a fair share of targets in their respective passing game.

“Not much value tonight, but if you’re looking for fliers, Watkins, Kupp & Garcon are the only with any value” by @FantsySprtsHome

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins is an exceptional big play talent that the team will hope to exploit soon. Unfortunately right now Watkins is like a ticking bomb counting down; eventually the clock is going to hit zero and he’ll explode. The only problem for fantasy owners, we just don’t know when. Playing him right now is an unnecessary risk, so exercise patience.

“Watkins ready to explode? Who knows. Owners must be patient and sit him for now” by @FantsySprtsHome

All in all I expect tonight’s matchup to be worthy of the long historical rivalry between these two franchises and while it certainly doesn’t shape up to be, I would not be surprised with a higher scoring contest than what is being advertised.

All plays are risky, especially on those on the short week (Thursday night), but remember both teams are now under offensive minded regimes.

Go Shanahan and McVay.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th, 2016
Sunday morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Start'em

Coming off a big day a week ago with 9 receptions and 102 yards receiving, I like tight end Dennis Pitta's 12 today in a not-so-great matchup against the Jaguars. The Jags defense has been pretty good versus opposing tight ends, but the Ravens pass catcher is healthy and appears to be a focal point in the pass game. Last week Pitta led the team with 12 targets. He may not see as many today, but he should see enough to put up top 10 TE fantasy numbers this week. Start him.

Fantasy owners should be able to count on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to be a Week 3 Road Warrior. The Bolts signal caller has a very favorable road matchup agains the Colts secondary, ranked 23rd versus opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Rivers has been solid thus far averaging 231.5 yards passing per game with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions; expect another solid effort from the veteran today in Indianapolis. Get him in your lineup.

Most fantasy owners are going to have Jets running back Matt Forte in their line-ups today, so this is more for the DFS players, start Forte. He's got a fair salary value, and with a hot matchup against the Chiefs defense that is ranked 30th versus opposing running backs in standard scoring. Forte is the workhorse in New York and should see lots of work today. He's a start today.

He's been a favorite of mine in this early part of the season and I will continue to ring the bell for wide receiver Victor Cruz. With a savory matchup against the Redskins defense, ranked 26th versus opposing wide receivers I expect we'll he Victor Cruz's name plenty of times today. Start him with confidence.


Sit'em

It's always tough to sit your studs, but fantasy owners better temper their expectations from wide receiver AJ Green. The Bengals wide out will match up against one of the leagues best secondaries that allows the third fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. It's a tough call to sit Green, but don't expect big numbers today.

The Niners running back Carlos Hyde has a tough match up today facing the Seahawks 3rd ranked run defense. He's not off to a great start averaging well less than 4 yards per carry and just 122 yards in two games this season. I would not expect to see the Niners offense make any big strides today on the road, fantasy owners may want to look elsewhere for help in the backfield.


Injury Round-up

RB-Jamaal Charles, OUT
RB-Rashad Jennings, OUT
RB-Arian Foster, OUT
WR-Sammy Watkins, OUT
WR-Willie Snead, Questionable
TE-Virgil Green, OUT
TE-Delania Walker, Questionable

Expected to play;

WR-Brandon Marshall
WR-Alshon Jeffrey


That's my take,

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition

September 12th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 2 Values

Diamonds or Coal

After one week you are already rethinking your fantasy football draft aren’t you? Well let’s not go into panic mode just yet. The season is young and we’re only one week in; there are plenty of fixes available and plenty of diamonds in the rough to find.

I was able to take in quite a few games last weekend and let’s just say I saw plenty and took notes. Players like Steve Smith (24.8 fantasy points*) in Baltimore and Jake Locker (23.4 fantasy points*) in Tennessee were pleasant surprises with their week one performances, as well as Arizona’s Carson Palmer (24.3 fantasy points*) and Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins (18.9 fantasy points*). These all were players that were likely taken later in drafts and not started in week one, but plays that could help your fantasy team in week two.

Diamonds…

A couple of more diamonds found from week one that could give your lineup a needed boost would include the Falcons wide receiver-return man Devin Hester. With his six targets in week one, Hester was clearly a part of the passing game and he took advantage of those opportunities; the speedster hauled in 5 passes for 99 yards. This kind of production could land Hester in your lineup this Sunday as a nice flex option.

This week the Niners will be at home to face a Bears defense that allowed over 190 yards rushing in week one. Starting running back Frank Gore should benefit from the week two matchup, but don’t expect the Niners to overwork the 31 year-old ball carrier. Rookie running back Carlos Hyde has been impressive and productive rushing for 50 yards and a score off seven carries in week one. The Niners will definitely run the ball on Sunday and Hyde should figure in nicely with double-digit carries; he should be a solid flex this week.

In week one the Cowboys defense had trouble keeping up with the Niners tight end Vernon Davis (two touchdown receptions in week one). This week former Niners tight end Delanie Walker will get his shot at the Cowboys secondary. Walker is coming off a nice week one performance (3 receptions, 37 yards receiving, and a touchdown) and could follow it with a solid week two. Fantasy owners looking for tight end help should insert Walker here.

Coal….

The Rams offense looked anemic in week one only producing 6 points. One of the reasons for the deficiency is their lack of a running game and absence of wide receiver Kenny Britt. There was some talk during the preseason suggesting Britt could make a rebound in 2014 and while we are only in week one, three targets and zero receptions is definitely not the start he or fantasy owners was looking for. Britt should not be owned until we see some presence of a receiver and consistency.

These are just my takes for week 2.

*standard one point PPR

~David Ortega