FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 1

Sit’ems

1. Jimmy G, QB (LVR) - This will be a tough road matchup for Jimmy G. And although I am not down on him this season, afterall he has Davante to throw to, I just feel better about other options. I’d prefer to sit Jimmy G here and see how he plays first, and roll in another direction

2. Gabe Davis, WR (BUF) - I will admit, I watched “Hard Knocks” this season and I am a fan of the Jets D. I really believe they will be tough. I’m not so sure about the 85-86 Bears, but they will be a problem for opponents and likely Gabe Davis in Week 1. I see the Bills still taking shots at Sauce Gardner with Diggs, but I also see quarterback Josh Allen spreading the ball all around. Also Davis caught 5 passes for 64 yards in two games against the Jets in 2022.

3. Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR) - With no Cooper Kupp and even questions in my mind about how healthy and strong Stafford is, since returning from a shortened 2022 season due to injury, he’s a wait and see start for me. I like the matchups for quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jordan Love, and even Baker Mayfield ahead of Stafford who will be on the road.

4. Darnell Mooney, WR (CHI) - The Bears passing game is a low-volume proposition and with the arrival of DJ Moore in the offseason and the addition of Chase Claypool last season, leaves Mooney’s outlook a little murky heading into week 1. I’d rather see how these receivers are used and how much volume Mooney demands before I roll him out. Receivers like Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and the rookie Jordan Addison have more appeal.

5. Zach Ertz, TE (ARI) - No quarterback Kyler Murray in this one and a banged-up Ertz, does not instill a lot of confidence. There are safer streaming options that I would feel more comfortable with on Sunday, like Juwan Johnson (Saints), Logan Thomas (Commanders), or even Greg Dulcich (Broncos).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 1

Start’ems

1. Davante Adams, WR (LVR) - The Raiders wide receiver has a tough matchup this week facing the Broncos rising star cornerback, Patrick Surtain II, but that won’t keep him out of fantasy lineups. In two games Adams averaged 8/121/1 in two games against the Broncos in 2022.

2. Javonte Williams, RB (DEN) - The Broncos young running back looks set for a big role on Sunday and could produce big for fantasy owners. The Raiders ranked 23rd against the run in 2022, allowing over 4 yards per carry, while giving up the 4th most rushing touchdowns (16) to opposing running backs.

3. Antonio Gibson, RB (WAS) - The Cardinals defense was bad last especially defending running backs in the pass game. The Cards allowed the 2nd most yards (810)m, the 4th most receptions (101), and the most receiving touchdowns (6). Antonio Gibson is a converted wide receiver to running back. This matchup sets up for him to showcase his strengths as a ball catcher against a weak defense. In 2022 Gibson only rushed for 546 yards, but he did catch 46 balls which ranked tied for 13th among all running backs.

4. Chris Godwin, WR (TBB) - Tom Brady may have retired, but the Bucs still have a great pair of receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Quarterback Baker Mayfield steps in under center for Tampa Bay in 2023 and he may be enough to keep feeding Godwin, who caught 104 balls last season. The Vikings secondary ranked amongst the worst versus the pass in 2022, allowing the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Their 250 receptions allowed versus wide receivers last season, also ranked worst. Godwin is a strong play on Sunday.

5. Juwan Johnson, TE (NOS) - The Saints tight end will be a matchup nightmare for most teams this season. The huge 6’4” receiving target transitioned from receiver to tight end after going undrafted in 2020 and last season enjoyed his breakout party. In 2022, Johnson caught 42 balls for 508 yards and 7 scores on the season and posted double-digit fantasy points in six of his last 10 games. Tomorrow he has a great matchup facing a Titans defense that struggles versus the tight end position; 100 receptions (ranked 31st), 1,144 yards receiving (ranked 30th) and 8 touchdowns (ranked tied for 24th).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th, 2023

Friday Late-Evening Edition

TNF Recap Lions-Chiefs

• 20 plus carries for Montgomery - At least for the moment this doesn’t seem like much of a timeshare with Montgomery outpacing Jahmyr Gibbs 21-9 in touches on Thursday night. But it’s just one game and Gibbs did display some electricity and flash. Per the team, Gibbs will see his usage increase going forward.
• Conservative play calling for Lions - I was not a big fan of what I saw on Thursday night. It seemed to me the Lions were a bit conservative with the playcalling. With the Chiefs missing D-lineman Chris Jones, I expected to see more than 35 passes (to 34 runs) from the Lions.
• Chiefs WRs a mess - The Chiefs wide receiver room is a mess. The team had too many drops and not enough plays from their receivers. Receivers Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore combined for one reception for one yard on 8 targets. No overreaction here, but both belong on fantasy benches for the time being.
• Mahomes could be facing a long season - With Kelce out, it was a rough outing for Mahomes and some of his receivers didn’t help him out much.I’d expect Kelce’s status to be questionable heading into week 2. Should he end up missing a second game, the Chief's could face the strong chance of dropping another game when they hit the road and head to Jacksonville.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

 

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th, 2023

Friday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx (Week One)

(Favorable matchups)

These are my week one notable matchups that I like very much. Make sure you have shares of these Fantasy Studs in your DFS lineups and that you have them in your season-long starting lineups. These are the ones to watch in week one.

RB-JK Dobbins (Ravens) The Ravens running back will face a Texans defense that allowed a league high 2,412 yards on the ground with 22 rushing touchdowns (also a league high). Dobbins will have a chance to turn in a solid fantasy performance against a defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Fantasy owners are salivating.

RB-Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) The Fins have a big play running back in Mostert and on Sunday they look to turn him loose against a Chargers defense that ranked 31st against the run last season allowing over 5.5 yards per carry. The Chargers also allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing runners. Mostert could be in for a big day.

WR-Justin Jefferson (Vikings) The Vikings exciting 4th year receiver seems matchup proof week in and week out since he arrived in the NFL back in 2020. It is not as if you needed any more reasons to start him, but if you’re looking for a big game from J.J. he’ll face a Buccaneers secondary that allowed the 10th most receptions, 8th most touchdowns to opposing receivers last season. The Buccaneers defense ranked 26th against opposing wide receivers allowing the 7th most fantasy points. Expect J.J. to flourish.

WR-Chris Olave (Saints) The Saints 2nd year receiver will look to build off his solid rookie campaign in 2022 and his matchup on Sunday should lend itself to that cause. Olave will line up against a Titans secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions, the 3rd most yards, and the most fantasy points to opposing receivers in 2022. This Saint could be in for a very big day.

TE-Gerald Everett (Chargers) In what is expected to be a high scoring affair, the Chargers tight end will also have the luxury of facing a Dolphins defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2022. The Dolphins defense also surrendered the 4th most receptions to opposing tight ends while giving up 10 receiving touchdowns last season. Everett looks like a good bet to score on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th, 2023

Wednesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Outlook: Opportunity (WRs)

Digging further deeper into the numbers. Here’s a look at the top pass catchers in 2022, in terms of opportunities.

Top 10 Most Targets in 2022

1. Justin Jefferson-187

2. Davante Adams-180

3. Tyreek Hill-170

4. CeeDee Lamb-156

5. Stefon Diggs-154

6. Garret Wilson-147

7. Diontae Johnson-147

8. AJ Brown-146

9. Amon-Ra St.Brown-146

10. Chris Godwin-142

One receiver that is not being talked about nearly enough is the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb and he checks in at number four as the most targeted receiver in 2022. With Dak (Prescot) back in the saddle at quarterback, the No.6 fantasy receiver (Lamb) from last season has a great opportunity to build off his impressive numbers (107 rec /1,359 yds /9 Tds) from 2022.

A rising star checking in at number nine on the list, the Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St.Brown enjoyed a breakout season in 2022 to follow up his impressive rookie campaign. St.Brown snatched 106 balls for 1,161 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns last season on his 146 targets - good enough for the No.8 fantasy receiver and very repeatable.

This is just a look at the numbers heading into the 2023 NFL season. Good luck Ballers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th, 2023

Wednesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Outlook: Opportunity (RBs)

We are beyond the fantasy draft now for most (there are still some late drafters on the clock), so it’s time to start talking about the upcoming season and time to start looking at probabilities, tendencies, and trends. It’s time to look at the numbers.

Top 10 in 2022

Total Touches (carries + catches)

1. Josh Jacobs / 340 + 53 = 393

2. Derrick Henry / 349 + 33 = 382

3. Saquon Barkley / 295 + 57 = 353

4. Christian McCaffrey / 244 + 85 = 329

5. Nick Chubb / 302 + 27 = 329

6. Najee Harris / 272 + 41 = 313

7. Austin Ekeler / 204 + 107 = 311

8. Dalvin Cook / 264 + 39 = 303

9. Alvin Kamara / 223 + 57 = 280

10. Rhamondre Stevenson / 210 + 69 = 279

Because of his heavy usage in the passing game, the Chargers running back Austin Ekeler checks in at number 7. It’s easy to see why he’s being drafted early in the 1st round of most drafts, especially in PPR formats.

Just like Ekeler, McCaffrey’s contributions in the pass game elevate his usage to top 5 and make him a high value target in fantasy drafts. His ADP has him positioned as the Number one fantasy runner in 2023 and for good reason – No.2 fantasy running back right behind Ekeler.

This is just a look at the numbers heading into the 2023 NFL season. Good luck Ballers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2023

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Stocks: Falling Stocks

From the desk of The (fantasy) Football Street Journal, there are a number of players in this year’s Fantasy player pool with cloudy outlooks. Avoid these stocks.

Stock Falling

Jonathan Taylor, ADP 3.02 - On the team’s PUP for the first four games of the season, the Colts running back is trending down. Still going in the 3rd round in most drafts, unless Taylor falls deep into the mid-rounds, he is one to avoid. Too much risk with this investment.

Jameson Williams, ADP 11.01 - The Lions 2nd year receiver is suspended for the first six games and will be away from the team as he still rehabs. His outlook is very unsettling at this time. Expected to miss at the very least six and there’s no real indication of what kind of impact he’ll make when he returns. With his stock falling, even as a late round flier he carries some risk.

Kyler Murray, ADP 14.03 - The Cardinals quarterback is going to be sidelined to start the 2023 NFL season as the team has placed him on the PUP. He will miss the team’s first four games, but beyond that it is unclear. Currently there is so much speculation going around about how long Murray could be out, in fantasy football his stock is plummeting. At his current ADP that’s about the only place to consider him. He’s a wait and see proposition until he’s at least back on the practice field.

Darnell Mooney, ADP 11.07 - With the addition of wide receiver Chase Claypool last season and the arrival of former Panthers receiver DJ Moore, Mooney’s fantasy outlook is muddled at best. More of a run-first team, the Bears had the fewest pass attempts and completions of any offense in 2022. With Moore and Claypool in the huddle now, Mooney is going to have stiff competition for targets this season.With the talk of trade rumors floating around, his stock continues to slide.

Dawson Knox, ADP 13.11 - The Bills went out and drafted themselves another tight end with their 1st round pick in the recent NFL draft, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid). Since the start of camp there’s been a buzz and talk about the rookie tight end, who’s currently being drafted ahead of Knox. The Bills list Knox ahead of Kincaid on the depth chart, but as the start of the season gets closer, the sleeper talk around Kincaid grows and the appeal of Knox falls.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2023

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Stocks: On the Rise

From the desk of The (fantasy) Football Street Journal, as we head into the 2023 NFL season, these are the fantasy stocks on the rise. Get your shares.

     

Stocks on the Rise

Garrett Wilson, ADP 2.04 - The Jets 2nd year receiver continues to build off of his 1st year success and with the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers it seems his fantasy ceiling continues to rise. Wilson is an exceptional talent and with a great quarterback under center this season, he has the makings of an Elite WR1. His stock is on a fast rise.

George Pickens, ADP 6.10 - I’ve seen enough highlight reel of Pickens as a Steeler to believe in his talent and ability. He’s been one of my fantasy targets throughout the draft season. During the preseason he and his quarterback have already connected on several nice plays. Pickens' star is on the rise along with his fantasy stock value.

Jahan Dotson, ADP 7.01 - The Commanders have themselves quite a talent in 2nd year receiver Dotson and this camp the kid’s been ballin out. There’s a lot of talk about Dotson’s fantasy outlook and potential. And he’s displayed some of that promise this preseason with a number of impressive grabs. If that’s any indicator, the sky's the limit for this kid. His stock just keeps climbing.

Darren Waller, ADP 5.12 - The Giants tight end has been all the rave in camp this preseason. With no true number one receiving option in the offense, the opportunity is there for Waller to take the lion’s share. He’s a great talent with the ability to be a Top-3 fantasy tight end. As the NFL season nears, Waller’s stock keeps on climbing.

James Cook, ADP 7.06 - The Bills 2nd year running back looks to take a big leap forward in 2023. With the departure of Devin Singletary, the door is open for Cooks to take on a larger role in the Bills offense. The team did add Damien Harris to the backfield, but there’s been chatter surrounding Cook taking on a bigger role. Last season Cook did a lot of good things down the stretch, splitting time in the backfield and contributing in the pass game. His stock continues to move on the way up.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2023

Monday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Terry McLaurin, Current ADP 5.01 – The Commanders wide receiver finished as the No.23 fantasy receiver last season, finishing the year with 77 catches, 1,191 receiving yards and five scores. He’s currently coming off draft boards as WR26. An early 5th round pick of McLaurin is good value for fantasy owners.

TE-George Kittle, Current ADP 5.07 – Last season’s No.2 fantasy tight end, is Kittle being under-valued a bit in current fantasy drafts coming off the board as TE4. His last three Season finishes in fantasy have been TE2, TE6, and TE2. In 2022 Kittle finished the year with 60 receptions and 765 yards receiving, but it was his career high (11) receiving touchdowns that carried his fantasy value. A feat that could be tough to duplicate in 2023.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2023

Monday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Christian Kirk, Current ADP 5.12 – Last season Kirk was the Jaguars leading receiver posting career highs in receptions (84), yards receiving (1,108), and receiving touchdowns (8).  He has improved every season and will be entering his 2nd year with the Jags. Kirk finished as the No.19 fantasy receiver in 2022 and is coming off the draft boards as WR30.

RB-Alvin Kamara, Current ADP 6.09 – The Saints running back will have to sit the first three games of this season due to suspension. He’s coming off the draft boards as the No.25 fantasy running back. Last season Kamara was the No.13 fantasy running back finishing the 2022 campaign with 897 yards rushing to along with 57 receptions, 490 yards receiving, and just a career low four total touchdowns.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023

Sunday Evening Edition

2023 Breakout Players

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator)

George Pickens, WR-Steelers / ADP 6.10 - The Steelers wide receiver has displayed his incredible talent and receiving prowess throughout training camp and the preseason. He has great athletic ability and great hands. He showed plenty of flash as well in 2022, setting up what could be a breakout campaign in 2023. 

Jahan Dotson, WR-Commanders / ADP 7.01 – Dotson has been one of those players this preseason that has been the talk of Fantasy Radio. He showed some flash in 2022, scoring a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games while totaling 344 yards receiving with 21 receptions. Dotson is could be on the verge of a big 2023 season.

Garrett Wilson, WR-Jets / ADP 2.04 – When future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers calls you special, you know that’s something. Last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson could be the piece that was missing from Rodgers derailed 2022 fantasy season. The talk is Wilson could be a top-5 fantasy wide receiver, currently being drafted as WR10.

Aaron Rodgers, QB-Jets / ADP 9.08 – Last season Rodgers overall numbers dipped quote a bit, but he didn’t have his Alpha receiver Davante Adams who had moved onto the Raiders. Traded to New York in the offseason, Rodgers may have found his new Alpha (receiving) weapon in 2nd year receiver Garrett Wilson. The benefit of having a receiver of Wilson’s caliber could return Rodgers to fantasy relevance as a top-6 fantasy quarterback.

Kenny Pickett, QB-Steelers / ADP 13.09 – The Steelers 2nd year quarterback has looked sharp in the preseason and although we don’t want to read too much it’s a good sign. Another big sign is the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, with receivers Diontae Johnson and Pickens, add a trusty tight end like Pat Freiermuth and Pickett is a favorite of mine to outperform his current QB20 draft position.

Jordan Love, QB-Packers / ADP 14.04 – Just like Pickett, I really like the Packers quarterback to outperform his current QB24 draft position. He’s been sharp in camp this season completing over 60% of his throws and tossing three touchdowns. And although the sample size is small, this is Love’s 4th season in Green Bay and I believe he’s primed and ready to breakout.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega