FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK5)

October 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

Looking back, at what was Week 5, I have several takeaways that not only define the week, but also provide some fantasy football implications owners can take with them into week 6.

Patriots are awful (both sides)

Right now the Patriots are a mess and look terrible on both sides. The offense is in shambles, no production from any of the skill positions and the defense looks like a house of cards ready to fall at the first site of a strong wind. Avoid Patriots starters for now and start any team defense facing New England. If you have any running backs (ppr) matched up against the Patriots defense, they should be considered a safe play.

Broncos have worst defense, absolutely awful vs run

I don’t think I’ve seen any other team nearly as bad against the run this decade, as the Broncos have been this season. The Dolphins massacre may have been considered an outlier that slightly inflates the numbers, but after their performance in week 5 against the Jets, the numbers are true and you are what your record says; yards per carry allowed ranked last, rushing yards allowed per game ranked last, rushing yards allowed this season last, and rushing touchdowns allowed second to last.

George Pickens is a stud - just give Pickett time.

He was one of my pre-draft targets this season, although I was only able to get him in two of my six drafts. Pickens has great hands, crazy athletic ability and if the Steelers O-line can just give quarterback Kenny Pickett time, good things happen. Pickens is the fantasy WR19 at the moment, but trending in the right direction. Three of his last four games have been 75 yards receiving or more with two over 125 yards. Just give it time.

The Giants may have found Waller.

I just can’t figure out what the objective is when the Giants have the ball. All preseason the tales just continued to grow about Waller and Jones, but so far this season there’s been little evidence. That is until week five, where Waller was targeted a season high 11 times and recorded 8 grabs for 86 yards. I’d like to think the Giants have found possibly their best pass catcher, but this is a tough read for fantasy owners. Jones was knocked from the contest late and the Giants were trailing by multiple scores late. Regardless I’m just hoping the Giants watch the tape and realize they have Waller.

The Joe Cool and Chase show is back

It took five weeks, but well worth the wait. I admit, I jumped the gun and believed I had to look elsewhere and move off Joe for week 5. Now I never entertained the idea of dropping Joe, just wanted to wait until he plays better and looks healthy. He definitely looked great, threw the ball incredibly well and when Chase has his buddy Joe slinging it, great things happen. It’s safe to say, keep rolling with Joe Cool and JC.

Kupp and Nacua - the new Dynamic Duo

There was little doubt in my mind that a Sean McVay offense could support both Nacua and Kupp. I’d say my only hesitation was how much workload would Kupp be ready to handle. I’d say 12 targets would indicate nothing to worry about. And his teammate Nacua saw 11 of his own. Both receivers finished fantasy WR11 (Nacua) and WR12 (Kupp). They look like the new dynamic duo.

Justin Fields forever Moore.

There’s something happening in Chicago. The past two weeks have been a big indicator and I am believing that Fields has found his go to in Moore and fantasy owners can expect to see more of this going forward. Over his past two games Moore has caught 16 passes for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s also scored a touchdown in three straight games. Fields, now the fantasy QB4 has tossed 8 touchdowns with one pick in his last two starts and his 11 total touchdowns passes ranks tied for 2nd this season. Both are must-starts going forward.

The Niners are the best team right now

I don’t think I need to announce this to anyone who watches the NFL. But after their week 5 Sunday night dismantling of the Cowboys, it’s really hard to not recognize the Niners as the best and most complete team. As impressive as they are with weapons on offense like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, etc., they are equally impressive on the other side. IDP studs would include Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Dre Greenlaw. They may not run the table, 17 games is a long season, but they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs for whatever unlucky team has to face them.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING POSTS

September 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3

(X – Shout Outs)

My Four Horsemen

These are the players I expect to shine on Sunday.

QB-Kirk Cousins - The Vikings signal caller is fantasy QB1 through two games. He has passed for 708 yards, with 6-1, TD to Int ratio. The Chargers defense allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

RB-Kenneth Walker - The Seahawks running back is tied for fantasy RB14 through two games. Walker is averaging 17 touches, 60.5 scrimmage yards, and a touchdown per game. The Panthers D has surrendered 5 scores (4 run, 1 catch) to the position.

WR-George Pickens - The talented Steelers receiver leads the team with 17 targets, 9 receptions, and 163 yards receiving thru two games. He faces a Raiders D that allows the highest completion rate to WRs - 83.8%.

TE-Sam LaPorta - The rookie tight end has 10 receptions, 102 yards receiving, no scores thru two games. With a less than 100% St.Brown, LaPorta could see a big uptick in his usage and offer great DFS value.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

NFL Sunday week 3 is only just a few hours away, fresh batteries are in my remotes, breaking out all of my TVs, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), and I’m giving all of my fantasy lineups a second and third look. 

There’s still a lot to take in, the never-ending notes to review, last minute changes to make due to injuries, all the while the clock to kickoff is counting down. You just gotta love fantasy football.

The cold beverages are on ic and football foods are in great supply for the 10 hour marathon that lies ahead. And speaking of ten, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I await the kickoff to NFL Sunday Week 3;

1. “Can the Cheetah be Caught” - The Dolphins will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, so I’m expecting to see the Phin go into overdrive getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins offense still has other capable receivers to occupy the defense, so the reeling Broncos are going to have a tough time slowing down the Cheetah, let alone catch him.

2. “Can the Bills keep Cooking” - The weather may not cooperate in this matchup with the Bills and Commanders. Bills running back James Cook (fantasy RB17)  is coming off career week 2 performance, Cooks posted his best game as a pro with 123 yards rushing and 17 carries. He totaled 21 touches in week 2 and could be in line for a repeat workload.

3. “Is it Miller Time at Lambeau” - With Jamaal Williams shelved for Sunday, the Saints rookie running back Kendre Miller will not only make his debut, but he’ll have a real opportunity to have an impact. As the old saying goes “Cream rises to the top”, Miller could have an impact today.

4. “Can Stroud find more Nico” - Through two weeks this season, quarterback CJ Stroud to wide receiver Nico Collins has been bank. Collins has been targeted 20 times in two games and enters today as the fantasy WR7. I’m expecting more of the same against the Jags.

5. “Ridley, Believe it or Not” - Last week was more of a forgettable week for Ridley and the Jags offense. This week is a nice get right game for Ridley and company. Even though his numbers were down last week (2/32/0), Ridley was still targeted 8 times, 19 for the season.

6. “An All-out Aerial Assault in Minny” - It’s Herbert versus Cousins, it's the Chargers and the Vikings. Through two weeks the Chargers defense is last versus the pass and last week, the Vikings secondary showed their vulnerability against the pass facing the Eagles. The Chargers have a pair of receivers that should give the Vikes secondary fits all afternoon. The Bolts have to contend with Justin Jefferson, enough said. Shootout.

7. “Can Walker get Running” - The Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker has yet to get moving this season, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. He’s fantasy RB14 facing the Panthers 23rd ranked run defense today, and will try to get the ground game out of first gear.

8. “Can Hollywood Right the Script” - The Cowboys defense has been stellar through two weeks, but they just suffered a major loss to their secondary. That could be key for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to breakout today, as the Cardinals play host and look to secure their first win of the season.

9. “Is Skies the Limit” - The Chiefs entered Jacksonville last week 0-1 and came out of there with the road win. The passing game has yet to really get off the ground (by Mahomes standards), but we did see the appearance of Skyy Moore. The 2nd year receiver caught three balls, 70 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets. I see the Chiefs starting to feature the young receiver more and more and the season progresses.

10. “Sunday night Pickens” - Could Sunday Night be the encore performance fantasy owners are hoping for? Pickens is now the clear number one receiver and last Monday he showed his skills and big play ability. Enter the Raiders defense in week 3 that has allowed the highest rate of completion to opposing wide receivers. As long as the O-line gives Pickett time, we could see another big game from Pickens.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 2)

I am going to have good picks and I’m going to have some bad ones too. It’s just the nature of this game, so here are my week 2 picks where I whiffed.

I just didn’t love Pickens on Monday Night

George Pickens (WR) – Without a doubt, this was my biggest whiff. Don’t get me wrong, I love Pickens this season, I believe he’s the real number one in Pittsburgh. With another tough matchup against the Browns, following the disastrous start in week one, I was expecting much. To put his MNF performance into context, without the 71-yard TD catch, his line looked likes; 3/56/0 on 9 targets. Sometimes it just takes one.

I thought Mooney was money.

Darnell Mooney (WR) - I’m not really sure what happened here with Mooney. He did leave the game early in the second half with a knee injury, but in over 30 minutes of football he did not have a single target and he was only on the field for 15 snaps (seems low). 

I thought Trautman would score.

Adam Trautman (TE) - So much for the injury to the Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich, meant nothing towards Trautman’s workload in the passing game. With Dulcich out (placed on IR), Trautman recorded just one lone target. Bust.

I expected another strong game.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back was completely held in check on Sunday, just rushing for 40 yards on 12 carries. This was not the expected outcome in week 2 after finishing as the No.6 fantasy running back in week 1

With a home game I thought he would play well.

Trevor Lawrence (QB) -.Much like the whole Jaguars offense on Sunday, Lawrence pretty much laid an egg at home against the Chiefs. After a strong week one showing Lawrence only completed 53.8% of his passes with zero touchdowns in week 2. He was the No.27 fantasy quarterback.

I figured he’d fall flat facing a ferocious pass rush.

Russell Wilson (QB) - I didn’t expect to see this on Sunday, Wilson finishing as the No.3 fantasy quarterback. At times it wasn’t pretty and throughout it was rough. Wilson was sacked 7 times on the afternoon, but when he wasn’t on the ground he posted 308 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and added 56 rushing yards. It was a nice stat line, but greatly overshadowed by the stunning week two loss at home.

I thought it would be all Jeudy.

Courtland Sutton (WR) - His numbers on Sunday don’t jump off the paper, 5 grabs for 66 yards, but his double-digit fantasy points output (ppr) fared much better than expected.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF SIT'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Sit’Ems

My week 2 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos) - Wilson was very efficient in week 1 versus the Raiders, completing 27 of 34 passes (79.4% completion), but faced only a little pressure on the day being sacked just twice. This could be a very different story on Sunday facing the Commanders. Washington recorded three sacks in week one, two with Top-15 fastest sack times. Their defense also only allowed 3.8 yards per pass attempt, 5th best in the league in week one. Wilson and the Broncos pass game could struggle in week two.

RB-Cam Akers (Rams) - I’m not expecting much from Akers in week 2, this is in part to his lackluster production in week one (29 yards rushing on 22 carries), but mostly his matchup against a Niners defense that allowed only 37 yards rushing to opposing running backs in week one. I am avoiding Akers this week.

WR-George Pickens (Steelers) - Week one was rough treading for Pickens and the Steelers passing game with a tough matchup with the Niners. Pickens finished week one with 5 catches, but for just 36 yards. With another tough matchup in week 2 against a Browns secondary that allowed the 3rd fewest receptions to opposing receivers in week one, I am avoiding Pickens.

WR-Courtland Sutton (Broncos) - With a tough matchup on the slate for Wilson and company, Sutton may be the one receiver most affected. With the return of Jerry Jeudy this week, Sutton is likely to see some of the attention on offense shift away from his direction, in what could become a quiet week 2.

TE-Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) - Freiermuth was able to salvage his day last Sunday with a 3-yard touchdown grab. He may not be so lucky this week against a Browns defense that held the opposing tight ends to 3 catches for 17 yards. I will look elsewhere for help at the tight end spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2023

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Stocks: On the Rise

From the desk of The (fantasy) Football Street Journal, as we head into the 2023 NFL season, these are the fantasy stocks on the rise. Get your shares.

     

Stocks on the Rise

Garrett Wilson, ADP 2.04 - The Jets 2nd year receiver continues to build off of his 1st year success and with the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers it seems his fantasy ceiling continues to rise. Wilson is an exceptional talent and with a great quarterback under center this season, he has the makings of an Elite WR1. His stock is on a fast rise.

George Pickens, ADP 6.10 - I’ve seen enough highlight reel of Pickens as a Steeler to believe in his talent and ability. He’s been one of my fantasy targets throughout the draft season. During the preseason he and his quarterback have already connected on several nice plays. Pickens' star is on the rise along with his fantasy stock value.

Jahan Dotson, ADP 7.01 - The Commanders have themselves quite a talent in 2nd year receiver Dotson and this camp the kid’s been ballin out. There’s a lot of talk about Dotson’s fantasy outlook and potential. And he’s displayed some of that promise this preseason with a number of impressive grabs. If that’s any indicator, the sky's the limit for this kid. His stock just keeps climbing.

Darren Waller, ADP 5.12 - The Giants tight end has been all the rave in camp this preseason. With no true number one receiving option in the offense, the opportunity is there for Waller to take the lion’s share. He’s a great talent with the ability to be a Top-3 fantasy tight end. As the NFL season nears, Waller’s stock keeps on climbing.

James Cook, ADP 7.06 - The Bills 2nd year running back looks to take a big leap forward in 2023. With the departure of Devin Singletary, the door is open for Cooks to take on a larger role in the Bills offense. The team did add Damien Harris to the backfield, but there’s been chatter surrounding Cook taking on a bigger role. Last season Cook did a lot of good things down the stretch, splitting time in the backfield and contributing in the pass game. His stock continues to move on the way up.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023

Sunday Evening Edition

2023 Breakout Players

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator)

George Pickens, WR-Steelers / ADP 6.10 - The Steelers wide receiver has displayed his incredible talent and receiving prowess throughout training camp and the preseason. He has great athletic ability and great hands. He showed plenty of flash as well in 2022, setting up what could be a breakout campaign in 2023. 

Jahan Dotson, WR-Commanders / ADP 7.01 – Dotson has been one of those players this preseason that has been the talk of Fantasy Radio. He showed some flash in 2022, scoring a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games while totaling 344 yards receiving with 21 receptions. Dotson is could be on the verge of a big 2023 season.

Garrett Wilson, WR-Jets / ADP 2.04 – When future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers calls you special, you know that’s something. Last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson could be the piece that was missing from Rodgers derailed 2022 fantasy season. The talk is Wilson could be a top-5 fantasy wide receiver, currently being drafted as WR10.

Aaron Rodgers, QB-Jets / ADP 9.08 – Last season Rodgers overall numbers dipped quote a bit, but he didn’t have his Alpha receiver Davante Adams who had moved onto the Raiders. Traded to New York in the offseason, Rodgers may have found his new Alpha (receiving) weapon in 2nd year receiver Garrett Wilson. The benefit of having a receiver of Wilson’s caliber could return Rodgers to fantasy relevance as a top-6 fantasy quarterback.

Kenny Pickett, QB-Steelers / ADP 13.09 – The Steelers 2nd year quarterback has looked sharp in the preseason and although we don’t want to read too much it’s a good sign. Another big sign is the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, with receivers Diontae Johnson and Pickens, add a trusty tight end like Pat Freiermuth and Pickett is a favorite of mine to outperform his current QB20 draft position.

Jordan Love, QB-Packers / ADP 14.04 – Just like Pickett, I really like the Packers quarterback to outperform his current QB24 draft position. He’s been sharp in camp this season completing over 60% of his throws and tossing three touchdowns. And although the sample size is small, this is Love’s 4th season in Green Bay and I believe he’s primed and ready to breakout.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Draft Day Watch

As you are preparing for your imminent fantasy draft, you should  be thinking about what players will fall to your spot throughout the draft and be prepared to adjust on the fly as picks from left field occur.

The Draft is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and you should not be playing checkers, but more like chess as you make your selections and navigate your way to your perfect draft.

As the draft gets started, if you are in position with an early pick, one of the first two running backs you need to be looking at is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler was the No.1 fantasy scoring running back in 2022 and has played in 33 of the teams past 34 games. With 107 receptions last season he is the premiere fantasy ppr receiving back.

Where people are currently ranking wide receiver Davante Adams, he’s a great early to mid 2nd round or beyond pick. Adams has been prolific his past three seasons and even if his numbers take a slight hit with a new quarterback in Las Vegas, he’s still a top 5 or 6 fantasy receiver. In the 2nd round he is coming off most boards as the WR9.

A little further into your draft, you can look for the Browns Amari Cooper to be available in the 3rd round to pair up with your Adams pick. Cooper is coming off a strong 2022 season where he finished as the No.15 fantasy receiver grabbing 78 balls for 1,160 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. In 2022 Cooper only had his quarterback DeShaun Watson for six games. With a full camp under their belts, Cooper is a strong candidate to make a jump forward.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones was last season's No.11 fantasy running back and he’s currently being drafted as the RB16 around the mid-4th round. Last season Jones totaled over 1,500 yards of offense and scored 7 total touchdowns in 2022, very reachable numbers in 2023.

In a new city and a new opportunity, the whispers coming out of the New York Giants training camp about their starting tight end Darren Waller are getting louder. Waller had a down year in 2022 playing in only 9 games, but he was still scoring as a Top-10 fantasy tight end. He’s in a new place and certainly has the talent to be a Top-5 Fantasy, just as he was in 2020, when he finished as the No.2 fantasy tight end. He’s currently coming off draft boards as an early 6th round pick, but he’s moving up.

Steelers wide receiver George Pickens' star is on the rise this season. He finished 2022 as the No.45 fantasy receiver, but there’s no question about his talent and ability, he just needs the opportunity. Pickens was targeted just 84 times last season, a number he will surely surpass in 2023. Currently coming off the draft boards as the WR34, he is an early 7th round pick.

As we truck along into the mid-rounds of your draft a possible steal also in the 7th round could be quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson returned to action in 2022 after sitting out the entire 2021 season. He only played six games last season, but it was enough to shake the rust. If he regains his 2020 form (finished as the No.5 fantasy QB), he’s the 9th quarterback coming off the board in round 7th, VALUE. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

On My Radar: Draft Day Targets

Now that the draft season has heated up, it’s time to talk about my Draft Day targets. These are the players that I will be looking to take at the right time during my several upcoming drafts. I want value, but I am also looking for opportunity with upside.

Diving in deep, let’s start with the early rounds.

I’ve only participated in a couple of drafts thus far this season. But as I read some of the latest news and watch all of the preseason action, the word on the Fantasy Football Street is wide receivers are going early. It’s not hard to make this argument when you consider the top two consensus receivers are the Vikings Justin Jefferson (128 receptions in 2022) and the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (over 20 FPG in 2022).

In most of my drafts, I am slotted beyond the 6th spot, so with the receiving landscape being so rich in talent the receiver I am most interested in taking as a last first or early 2nd round pick is Davante Adams. Over the past three seasons Adams has averaged 1,481 yards receiving, 14.3 receiving touchdowns, and 112.6 receptions each season. In his first year in Las Vegas his production level was on par with these averages. In 2022 his finished as the third highest scoring fantasy wide receiver playing in all 17 games. Even with a new quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo) this season, I don’t see a big fall off for Adams. Even with a 5-8% regression he finishes as a top 5 wideout. He’s a safe pick with great value.

Still in the early rounds, two running backs that I have been seeing around the 3rd and 4th round turn are (Packers) Aaron Jones and (Cardinals) James Conner. Both backs offer RB1 value, each finishing in the top 12 last season in fantasy points per game. Jones registered over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2022, while Conner finished as a top 10 fantasy running back. Both are going late enough you can bypass in the first two rounds pick up Jones in the late 3rd or grab Conner a little later in the 4th.

As we skate along into the mid-rounds, this about the time to start looking for my tight end and this season my sights are set on the Giants Darren Waller. Listening to a lot of Training camp talk on the radio and TV, there’s a buzz around Waller in New York. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Raiders, Waller stormed onto the fantasy scene posting TE1 numbers, finishing as the No.5 fantasy tight end in 2019 and No.2 in 2020. Last season was a bust playing in the shadow of (Davante) Adams, but now that he’s in New York, Waller absolutely has the talent to be the number one option for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Finally, this Draft Day target is not a late round flyer, but in my opinion possibly a steal in the 7th round or later, Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. In my opinion, Pickens is dynamic and showed a lot of flash last season when given the opportunity. Last season compared to other receivers with at least 80 targets, Pickens finished 6th in yards per reception with 15.4 yards per catch. His quarterback has been looking good this preseason and figures to take a few steps forward, so I am expecting good things from Pickens. Last season he finished as the No.52 fantasy wideout, this season I believe he could make a leap to a borderline WR2/WR3 (12 team leagues). 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega