FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Injuries always play a factor and influence game-flow and the potential outcomes in every game. Looking ahead to today’s slate of games, a couple of injury notes that could affect player performances in Week 10.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals)

With the potential of missing both wide receivers Tee Higgins (ruled OUT) and Ja’Marr Chase (back), Boyd would be elevated to the number one primary receiver. The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been slinging it all over the yard the past several weeks, making Boyd a favorite today in seasonal, as well as DFS.

Brandon Powell (Vikings)

The Vikings are still without wide receiver Justin Jefferson (activated off IR) and likely do not have KJ Osborn available today. Jordan Addison will be the popular pick today and deservedly so, but Brandon Powell will have some flex appeal and DFS value today. Even tight end TJ Hockenson is noted as possibly being on a pitch count today. For a lack of options available, Powell could see his role expand greatly today.

Tank Dell (Texans)

The Texans rookie wide receiver blew up last week against the Buccaneers, it was his third game with more than 20 fantasy points (ppr). With starting wide receiver Nico Collins (ruled OUT) sidelined today, Dell will likely become the defacto number one with a huge ceiling against a suspect Bengals 22nd ranked (vs the pass) secondary.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY NIGHT FF QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Friday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Passers that are Slingin It

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) The Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott has been on a heater over his last three starts. He is completing 71.4% of his passes averaging 316.7 yards passing per game with 8 touchdowns and a passer rating of 120.73. Prescott and the Cowboys have won two of their last three, falling just short last week against the Eagles. This week with a home tilt against the Giants, Prescott should be considered mid-to-low QB-1.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) The Bengals passer has been on a roll of late finishing in the Top-10 fantasy quarterbacks for the week in three of his last four starts. Through his last four games Burrow is averaging 283.2 yards passing, completing 76.9% of his passes while tossing 10 touchdowns. With a matchup against the Texans secondary ranked 24th against the pass, Burrow is locked in as a low-end QB-1 this week.

Sam Howell (Commanders) The Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been slinging it pretty good over his last three games. During this span Howell has averaged 323.7 yards passing per game with completing over 65% of his passes. With quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on a bye, Howell is in play this week as a low end QB-1 starter.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR SUNDAY

November 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

It’s Sunday morning, we have early morning football from Germany on the tube and NFL Sunday Week 9 is underway. With the main slate set to kickoff in just about 2 hours, I have a few questions as I look over the matchups today. 

Who’s going to have a big game, will anyone shock the world, and are we in for some high scoring affairs. Some of these are just general questions concerning today, but as I take a closer look at Week 9 here are the 10 questions.

1. Can Action Jackson serve up some Home Cooking?

Lamar Jackson is having a very good 23 campaign and with a home tilt today against the Seahawks he’ll look to continue. In his last two home starts he has 696 yards of offense and six touchdowns. Today could be big numbers.

2. Will the return of Watson Spark the Browns?

The Browns quarterback makes his return today after missing 3 of the team’s last four games. While his return should be a boost to the offense, just as important running back Jerome Ford appears ready to lead the backfield today. The Browns should fare well on the ground today against the Cardinals.

3. Is it Time for Stroud to Shine?

The Texans rookie signal caller has been relatively quiet the past several weeks. After throwing 7 touchdowns in his first 5 games averaging 292 yards passing, he has just two scoring throws and 169.5 yards passing per game. A home matchup with a leaky Tampa Bay secondary could be the fix needed, dial up some Texans receivers today.

4. Can Derek Carr Stay Hot?

The Saints passer has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight contests. He has the Bears 30th ranked pass defense on the slate today and a good chance to make it four. The Bears have allowed over 300 yards passing three times this season and gave up 298 in Week 8.

5. Can a Change at QB Spark some Offense?

The Falcons will play host today to the Vikings and will be doing so with a change at quarterback. Taylor Heinicke will take over the offense today for Atlanta in hope of sparking more offense through the air. In relief last week Heinicke stepped in and completed 12 of 21 with a touchdown. With no Drake London, today could be the Kyle Pitts, Van Jefferson, and Bijan Robinson show.

6. Is it Time to Set Jones Free (again)?

There were calls a couple of seasons ago to set Aaron Jones free. This season the Packers running back has been hampered by a lingering hamstring injury, but finally there may be a ray of hope. Per the Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur, Jones has looked good in practice this week and the team could be ready to cut him loose. If Jones is turned loose, he’ll have a chance to be an RB-1 today. 

7. Who will catch passes for the Patriots today?

The Patriots are depleted at the receiver position today with Kendrick Bourne placed on IR earlier this week and DeVante Parker ruled out. Could today be JuJu Smith-Schuster time? JuJu has only recorded 15 catches this season, including one last week for 3 yards. This is a tough situation fantasy managers may want to avoid.

8. Is it Taylor’s Time?

The Colts running back Zack Moss has continued to be a big part of the team's running game, but for two straight weeks now Jonathan Taylor has led the team in Rushing. Last week was Taylor’s best rushing output, with 95 yards on 12 carries and with a Week 9 matchup against a Panthers 24th ranked run defense, Taylor could be poised for a big day. Dial up some JT today. 

9. Will Big Changes in Vegas Pay Fantasy Dividends?

The Raiders decided to clean house after their Monday night loss to the Lions. The Raiders offense looked bad and now with the firings of HC Josh McDaniels and the GM, the team announced a change at quarterback. With rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell under center, is there hope for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to be productive? The Raiders offense looked bad on Monday night, so they really can’t get any worse, I am willing to roll the dice with a home matchup with the Giants.

10. Can Joe Cool Chill the Bills?

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been playing well the past several weeks and the offense could be on the verge of hitting on all pistons. With Ja’Marr Chase (fantasy WR5) playing great and Tee Higgins getting healthier, Burrow may be just getting started. The Bills secondary and defense has allowed the 6th most passing yards over the past 4 weeks, expect Joe and company to push those numbers higher. Dial up your Big Cats today.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK 8)

October 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 8 Takeaways)

After spending the whole day (as I usually do) on Sunday watching all the games, I came away with a few questions and observations. These are some of the things I think are worth noting.

1. Another Offensive dud from the Packers.

A lot of fingers will point at quarterback Jordan Love and for good reason, but I am not going to pile on. Sure there have been some mistakes and bad throws, but I also believe a big contributing factor to the Packers bad play can be correlated to ultra conservative and predictable play calling to open the game and the absence and non-use of running back Aaron Jones. Described as one of the most explosive running backs in the game, he is only averaging 11 touches per game his last two games.Until Jones is featured more prominently in the offense, it could tough treading for the Pack’s offense moving forward.

2. D-Hop still has plenty of Pop.

Give him a calm, cool, collected quarterback with poise in the pocket and Hopkins will give you a big-time game in return. That’s what happened on Sunday as Hopkins was the recipient of some very good quarterback play from rookie Will Levis. Hopkins only needed 4 catches to do serious damage in Week 8; 4 receptions for 128 yards receiving and three touchdowns. As long as he remains healthy, if he gets close to this type of QB play he’s a borderline WR-1 in the 2nd half of the season.

3. The Giants offense is awful.

I actually have a couple of takeaways from the Battle for New York. First, the Giants passing game was atrocious. Some may excuse it due to bad weather, but it’s been bad all season. Through 8 games this season, the Giants have just 4 passing touchdowns. Until we see great improvement, it’s best to avoid this catastrophe. 

Along with the offense, tight end Darren Waller left the game early on Sunday with a hamstring injury. Waller has been boom or bust and dealing with injuries most of the season. This is another situation best to avoid until Waller is 100%.

4. Javonte Williams is back.

The Broncos running back is coming off an ACL injury in Week 4 of last year and while there have been a few signs here and there throughout this season, Williams finally showed he is back on Sunday. Williams didn’t break any stat records, but he did put in a lot of work. Williams carried the rock 27 times and finished the day with a career high 30 touches for 98 total yards. Williams ran hard and looked like his pre-injury self. Next up, the big game.

5. Joe Cool is heating up.

With a tough road matchup with San Francisco on Sunday, Joe Burrow and the Bengals rolled into town and then rolled the Niners. Burrow has been heating up of late, with 8 touchdowns passes over his last three, leading the Bengals to three straight wins, including 4 of 5. With his wide receiver Tee Higgins returning close to form and Ja’Marr Chase doing what he does, Burrow could just be getting started.

6. The Return of Austin Ekeler.

The Chargers running back two games removed from his return from injury, looked like the old Ekeler fantasy managers have come to expect. After averaging 54 yards and 16.5 touches with no scores his past two games, Ekeler turned up huge Sunday night against the Bears. The Chargers ball carrier totaled 23 touches (15 carries, 8 catches) for 123 yards of offense (29 run, 94 receive) with a touchdown. Ekeler was a featured part of the pass game and was more than effective, something fantasy managers hope to see continue going forward.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 8

October 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 8

Sunday’s Heroes

Another Sunday funday of NFL action is in the books. There were plenty of stars shining on the field and gladiators slaying the competition. With Monday Night Football kick-off underway, a quick look back at some of the best performances from Sunday Week 8.

Here were some of the Fantasy Football Heroes from NFL Sunday Week 8.

Sunday Heroes (Week 8)

QB-Joe Burrow (Bengals) Joe Burrow was cool under pressure, facing the Niners defense on the road in Santa Clara. Burrow completed 19 passes in a row on his way to 28 of 32 passing (87.5% completion rate) for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last three starts Burrow (fantasy QB20) has averaged over 29 completions per game while throwing 8 touchdowns and adding 54 rushing yards.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) The Saints running back has been a fantasy phenom this season. On Sunday he continued his tear totaling 110 yards of offense (59 rush, 51 receive) and scoring two touchdowns (1 run, 1 receive) on 21 touches. Over his last four games Kamara (fantasy RB2) is averaging 25+ touches, 116 yards of offense, with three scores (2 run, 1 receive).

WR-AJ Brown (Eagles) The Eagles receiver AJ Brown continues to be a force in fantasy and on the field. Once again he was dominant, helping to lead the Eagles to a win on Sunday over the Commanders. Brown was targeted 8 times and caught all 8 passes for 130 yards receiving with two touchdowns. Brown’s (fantasy WR2) Week 8 numbers bring his season totals to 60 receptions for 939 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns.

TE-Gorge Kittle (49ers) Kittle was a big part of the passing game on Sunday with Deebo Samuel sidelined. Kittle was targeted 11 times and caught 9 passes for 149 yards receiving in the team’s Week 8 loss to the Bengals. With his big day on Sunday, Kittle (fantasy TE5) raised his season totals to 32 receptions, for 443 yards receiving, and three touchdowns.

DL-Jeffrey Simmons (Titans) The Titans run stuffer did what he does. Simmons was a terror on the ground stuffing the run and turning in a big performance in Week 8. He recorded 6 tackles, including 2 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and one forced fumble. Simmons (fantasy DL17) raised his season totals to 17 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, and 4.5 sacks.

LB-Kayvon Thibodeaux (Giants) The Giants linebacker was busy on Sunday, creating chaos and wrecking havoc in the rainy conditions on Sunday in New York. Thibodeaux (fantasy LB27) recorded 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB hits, and 1 forced fumble. His scoring on Sunday was tops for IDP.

DB-DaRon Bland (Cowboys) The Cowboys defensive back was Johnny on the spot Sunday, leading the Cowboys defense to a blowout win over the Rams. Bland (fantasy DB3) continued his strong seasonal play on Sunday recording 6 tackles, 1 assist, 2 passes defensed, and a pick six. Bland now has three defensive touchdowns this season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK5)

October 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

Looking back, at what was Week 5, I have several takeaways that not only define the week, but also provide some fantasy football implications owners can take with them into week 6.

Patriots are awful (both sides)

Right now the Patriots are a mess and look terrible on both sides. The offense is in shambles, no production from any of the skill positions and the defense looks like a house of cards ready to fall at the first site of a strong wind. Avoid Patriots starters for now and start any team defense facing New England. If you have any running backs (ppr) matched up against the Patriots defense, they should be considered a safe play.

Broncos have worst defense, absolutely awful vs run

I don’t think I’ve seen any other team nearly as bad against the run this decade, as the Broncos have been this season. The Dolphins massacre may have been considered an outlier that slightly inflates the numbers, but after their performance in week 5 against the Jets, the numbers are true and you are what your record says; yards per carry allowed ranked last, rushing yards allowed per game ranked last, rushing yards allowed this season last, and rushing touchdowns allowed second to last.

George Pickens is a stud - just give Pickett time.

He was one of my pre-draft targets this season, although I was only able to get him in two of my six drafts. Pickens has great hands, crazy athletic ability and if the Steelers O-line can just give quarterback Kenny Pickett time, good things happen. Pickens is the fantasy WR19 at the moment, but trending in the right direction. Three of his last four games have been 75 yards receiving or more with two over 125 yards. Just give it time.

The Giants may have found Waller.

I just can’t figure out what the objective is when the Giants have the ball. All preseason the tales just continued to grow about Waller and Jones, but so far this season there’s been little evidence. That is until week five, where Waller was targeted a season high 11 times and recorded 8 grabs for 86 yards. I’d like to think the Giants have found possibly their best pass catcher, but this is a tough read for fantasy owners. Jones was knocked from the contest late and the Giants were trailing by multiple scores late. Regardless I’m just hoping the Giants watch the tape and realize they have Waller.

The Joe Cool and Chase show is back

It took five weeks, but well worth the wait. I admit, I jumped the gun and believed I had to look elsewhere and move off Joe for week 5. Now I never entertained the idea of dropping Joe, just wanted to wait until he plays better and looks healthy. He definitely looked great, threw the ball incredibly well and when Chase has his buddy Joe slinging it, great things happen. It’s safe to say, keep rolling with Joe Cool and JC.

Kupp and Nacua - the new Dynamic Duo

There was little doubt in my mind that a Sean McVay offense could support both Nacua and Kupp. I’d say my only hesitation was how much workload would Kupp be ready to handle. I’d say 12 targets would indicate nothing to worry about. And his teammate Nacua saw 11 of his own. Both receivers finished fantasy WR11 (Nacua) and WR12 (Kupp). They look like the new dynamic duo.

Justin Fields forever Moore.

There’s something happening in Chicago. The past two weeks have been a big indicator and I am believing that Fields has found his go to in Moore and fantasy owners can expect to see more of this going forward. Over his past two games Moore has caught 16 passes for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s also scored a touchdown in three straight games. Fields, now the fantasy QB4 has tossed 8 touchdowns with one pick in his last two starts and his 11 total touchdowns passes ranks tied for 2nd this season. Both are must-starts going forward.

The Niners are the best team right now

I don’t think I need to announce this to anyone who watches the NFL. But after their week 5 Sunday night dismantling of the Cowboys, it’s really hard to not recognize the Niners as the best and most complete team. As impressive as they are with weapons on offense like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, etc., they are equally impressive on the other side. IDP studs would include Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Dre Greenlaw. They may not run the table, 17 games is a long season, but they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs for whatever unlucky team has to face them.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 8th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

Hey, it’s Sunday, funday. We’ve got plenty of football on the docket and I am heavily invested in DFS today. With so many DFS lineups (probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 50, I may have a few questions swirling in my head. What’s the weather today, is this stud sitting today, did that guy get activated, do I have this guy in my lineups. These would be a few and while I have plenty more and little time before kickoff, it’s time to play a little game.

This little exercise I do can be considered the same “Questions Game”, Phoebe played with Joey on the show “Friends” where she asked him a series of questions and he answers them very quickly. Unfortunately for me there is no Monica and Rachel option. I will just have to stay with football criteria.

Here are the 10 quick questions or things on my mind.

1. How good is CJ Stroud?

My Take: The kid has been fabulous this season and impressive averaging over 300 passing per game with 6 passing touchdowns and no picks. The whole program in Houston looks impressive and I suspect the early success of Stroud has a lot to do with it. I can see the Texans start to shift their focus and lean more on the run game more going forward, but I don’t see Stroud necessarily slowing down. He’s got a nice compliment of weapons so I don’t believe his success is short lived.

2. Can Sammy Step up in Week 5?

My Take: The Lions are a little depleted on the offensive side of the ball with a couple of key players likely out today against the Panthers. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been better than good through the team’s first four games and will likely be featured in the pass game today. LaPorta is the number two fantasy tight end (fantasy points per game) and has a great chance at improving those numbers today.

3. Which Dolphin will blow up in Week 5?

My Take: All the Dolphins do is add speed and get faster. As if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle weren’t fast enough, the team has added wide receiver Chase Claypool. Nonetheless, Waddle, Claypool, Hill or even Robbie Chosen, this team is just a warehouse of dynamite waiting to explode. This week’s matchup looks to be a great opportunity and if I’m betting, it’s Cheetah time again.

4. Will Waller finally Wake?

My Take: It’s been four weeks, has someone reminded quarterback Daniel Jones, he has tight end Darren Waller in his lineup? Waller has basically been absent in the Giants pass game, the past two games with just 6 receptions for 41 yards and a fantasy TE31 showing in this span. The Giants offense has looked horrid and even a matchup with the Dolphins offers few silver linings. In what could become a lopsided affair, maybe Jones can check it down to Waller once in a while.

5. Can Swift Stay Hot?

My Take: Today’s matchup with the Rams will be interesting. The Eagles offense is loaded with weapons in the passing game and when you add Swift to the mix, look out. Since taking over the lead back duties in Philly, Swift has been stellar with 361 yards rushing and a 6.2 yards per carry average. The Rams defense has been in the top third against the run this season, but today they face Swift, a very tall task. The Eagles O-line is one of the best in the league and Swift is just a special talent, advantage Swift.

6. Is this The Return of Cooper Kupp?

My Take: I say it’s a bit premature to say it’s the return. However, I would expect to see Kupp targeted somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 times today. He will have fair numbers, worthy of starting but his impact will be how his presence will allow things to open up for Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee today.

7. Can Joe Cool Heat Up?

My Take: As a fantasy owner of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase I certainly hope so. The real question is how healthy is that calf. I am sure the team is staring at their bye week (week 7), when rest will help Burrow heal. Until then, there are going to be some tough outings, however today’s matchup against the Cardinals may offer a glimpse of what might be coming. The Cardinals allow the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but are fantasy owners willing to chance it (not me).

8. Is it Breece Hall time?

My Take: Well it sure sounds like the Jets intend to turn Hall loose this week. The Head coach announced earlier in the week, no restrictions, just like music to fantasy owners ears. It’s a prime matchup for Hall, as the Broncos have the worst run defense this season and their tackling has been atrocious. Hall should be in all seasonal lineups today and make sure you have plenty of shares in DSF.

9. Can the Chiefs slow JJ?

My Take: So far through four weeks, no one has been able to slow Justin Jefferson. JJ is getting peppered with targets every week, averaging nearly 12 per game. All he has done with this workload is turned it into 8.2 receptions, 135 yards receiving per game with three touchdowns. He was the consensus overall number one in fantasy drafts and he is living up to expectations. Today shouldn’t be any different.

10. Can CMC steam roll the Cowboys?

My Take: This will be the classic “Clash of the Titans” NFC matchup and it will be in primetime on Sunday Night. Just like Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey was a top draft prospect in fantasy and in most drafts was the first running back selected. Through the first four weeks, CMC has been in a world of his own, leading all fantasy players in scoring with 150 yards of offense per game and seven touchdowns this season. Even if the Cowboys defense can slow him, he has such a high floor, he’s still going to get numbers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 5 SITS

October 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 5

Sit’Ems

There is a lot to navigate in week 5 with a lot of notable injuries to work around, but just as important as knowing who to insert into your lineup, you have to know who to avoid and sit. Injuries play a part, just as much as matchups when making the start/sit decision.

These are your Week 5 notable injuries;

Jimmy Garappolo (concussion) P

Joe Burrow (calf) Q

Derek Carr (shoulder) Q

Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) D

Javonte Williams (quad) Q

Aaron Jones (hamstring) Q

Saquon Barkley (ankle) Q

Davante Adams (shoulder) Q

Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) D

Tee Higgins (ribs) O

Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) O

These are my Week 5 notable sits.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) - We’ve now had a four week sample size of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He has not looked sharp and the offense has struggled. While it is understandable, Burrow has been dealing with a calf injury, this fantasy owner is growing impatient with the dismal production.

Burrow still has his big play weapon in Ja’Marr Chase available, but after four weeks with little to show, it is probably best for now to move Joe Cool to your bench. We’ll need to see better play from Joe Cool and good health before we can trust him. Sit Burrow.

Najee Harris (Steelers) - Just like Burrow, the Steelers running back Najee Harris has not been productive through the first four weeks and this fantasy owner is getting restless. His week 5 matchup against the Ravens does not look any better and chances are it will be more of the same.

The Ravens defense is ranked 13th against the run, have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season. At this juncture it would be wise to move Harris to your bench until we see better offensive line play and production from the Steelers offense. Sit Harris for week 5.

The Patriots receivers - If you are looking for help at the wide receiver spot for Week 5, you should probably avoid the New England receivers. Other than Kendrick Bourne’s big week one when he scored twice, only one other Patriot receiver has topped double digit fantasy points and that was DeVante Parker with 11.6 (ppr).

The passing game has been inconsistent and unreliable paired with poor play from the QB position. Until Belichick and company can get this rectified, all Patriots receivers should be avoided. Fantasy owners should just move along. Sit the Patriots.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) - There is no question that the Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has talent and ability, but it is just not showing up on the field. Through four weeks, Pitts has yet to score in double digit fantasy points.

Through four games Pitts is actually the second leading receiver at the tight end position for the Falcons. He has been targeted 21 times, has caught 11 passes for 121 yards receiving, averaging less than 6 fantasy points per game in ppr format. Pitts has ability and skill, but fantasy owners are just not seeing it on the field, so for the time being leave Pitts on your bench until we see improved numbers.

If you are going to own a Falcons tight end, Jonnu Smith is the tight end to own. Sit Pitts.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 29th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 4: Best Matchups)

We’ve entered another weekend slate of games, still trying to recover from the week that was and looking forward to the week that could be. Could there be any monster games lurking in the shadows of the week 4 schedule?

Just like the previous week there are plenty of tasty matchups and a ton of data to dissect and figure out how to take advantage. The fantasy world can be cruel and she can be kind, looking ahead to the games of Week 4, these are some matchups we are hoping she smiles;

QB-Daniel Jones (Giants) - It’s been a tumultuous season for the Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones to this point. A comeback win and two blowout losses have fantasy owners holding their breath and hoping for the best. Well some of the best could arrive this Monday in the form of the Seahawks secondary, ranked 31st versus the pass and allowing the 2nd most completions to opposing quarterbacks. Another big key for Jones will be his tight end, a position of weakness for the Seahawks defense, that ranks 27th against in yards allowed. Daniel Jones finishes as a Top-12 fantasy QB this week.

QB-Joe Burrow (Bengals) - The Bengals passing game has yet to find its wings in this young season, but week 4 could offer hope for Burrow and company to air it out. In week 4 Burrow faces a Titan’s secondary that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards (899-yards passing) and a 72% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. This game sets up as a get right matchup for Burrow and company. Sunday will be Burrow’s first 300-yard passing effort in 2023.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - It has been a very slow start for Pierce this season, currently the fantasy RB34, he has totaled just 100 yards rushing in three games averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. This week Pierce and the Texans will take on the Steelers and have a shot to finally get the running game out of first gear. The Steelers defense is ranked 31st against the run (entering week 4), allowing around 5.5 yards per carry, so if there was ever a time for Pierce to break out this week should be it. I say he does it.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Through the first three weeks of the season, Cook is the league's third leading rusher with 267 yards on the ground, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per tote. He’ll have a great chance to continue his success this Sunday facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed 337 yards rushing (ranked 27th entering week 4) at a 4.7 yards per carry clip. In his only game at home this season, Cook posted a 100-yard rushing effort and will look to continue this trend on Sunday. I like his chances.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - Higgins has had an up and down season through the first three weeks and this weekend sets up as a great chance to finish on the upside. The Bengals receiver will get a shot at a Titans secondary that has surrendered 57 receptions (3rd most) and 690 yards (4th most) to opposing receivers. Look for the Bengals offense to take advantage and Higgins to put up solid WR-2 numbers for the week.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) - Through the first two weeks of the season, Collins was well inside the Top-10 of fantasy receivers with 226 yards receiving and 13 receptions. Last week he was targeted just three times and had a quiet afternoon. The Steelers secondary has allowed the 5th most fantasy points and 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Collins to return to the form he displayed the first two weeks.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - Engram is the No.4 fantasy tight end through the first three weeks and he has been steady all season. The Jaguars tight end ranks third among tight ends with 21 targets, entering week 4 he ranked tied for 2nd with 18 receptions, and his 173 yards receiving ranks third. The Jaguars are in London this weekend to square off against the Falcons and Engram will get a chance to face a defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Entering week 4 the Falcons have surrendered 18 receptions (tied for the 6th most) and two touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends. Engram has been solid this season and hasn’t finished lower than fantasy TE7. This won’t be the week he does, expect more of the same.

TE-Kyle Pitts (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts enjoyed his most productive week this season, catching 5 balls for 41 yards receiving on 9 targets. The targets are trending in the right direction and the matchup this week is good versus the Jaguars. The Jags defense has allowed the 4th highest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and through three games they’ve surrendered two touchdowns. Expect Pitts to continue to trend in the right direction. This weekend he enters the Top-12 fantasy tight end discussion for the week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 4. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my forecasts about their respective week 4 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega