FSH NOTEBOOK: DFS WEEKLY (WEEK 8)

October 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

DFS Weekly Primer

Fantasy Five

It’s another week of DFS play for me and looking over the week 8 slate I see several options I can work with to build a lineup. It’s been a rough season for me, I haven't quite had the success I was hoping for and expecting, but Week 8 is another day.

I like players like (RB) Alvin Kamara, (WR) Ja’Marr Chase, and (WR) Terry McLaurin this week and will have plenty of shares of each in my DFS lineup to go along with the following plays here. These are some of the plays that I like in DFS this week.

Dameon Pierce (Texans-RB) The Texans running back has been relatively quiet this season, but a great matchup this week against the Panthers affords the opportunity to shine. The Panthers are the 31st ranked defense against the run and allow the 5th most yards per carry. If the stars align, Pierce could be back in the fantasy fold.

Breece Hall (Jets-RB) Fresh off the bye, the 2nd year back would appear to be healthy and ready for a big Week. Hall has been the clear leader in the backfield the past couple of games and is poised for a big outing against a porous Giants run defense (ranked 27th against the run). His low DFS (DK) salary makes him a premium play this week.

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars-WR) The Jaguars wideout has been highly inconsistent, along the boom or bust lines this season. He is currently the fantasy WR45, but he continues to see a steady diet of targets weekly.  Squaring off with the Steelers this week, Ridley will face a secondary that is ranked 25th against the pass, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points and 7th most receiving yards to opposing receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens-WR) This week the Ravens passing game has a good matchup against the Cardinals 23rd ranked defense. The rookie wideout Zay Flowers figures to be a key play for the Ravens on Sunday, but after logging a Full practice on Friday and carrying no injury designation Beckham Jr could be ready for a bigger role this week. OBJ is coming off his best game of the season in Week 7 that included 7 targets. At his low (DK) salary value, I like his chances to make a splash in Week 8.

George Kittle (49ers-TE) With the 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel already ruled out, Kittle (fantasy TE8) can expect to see a greater share of targets in his Week 8 matchup with the Bengals. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points and 3rd most touchdowns (4) to opposing tight ends this season. Kittle is due for a big day.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 6th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 5: Best Matchups/Plays)

With the start of Week 5 on Thursday night, the 2023 season is moving right along as we enter the “Bye Weeks.” With some players not being available due to their bye, it will be key for owners to stay on top of current trends and matchups.

Some of the notable matchups in play this week will include the Eagles traveling to Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles to face the Rams in what could be a shootout. The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud will take his hot hand on the road this week to Atlanta. And in London the Jaguars will look to defend their overseas territory against Josh Allen and the streaking Bills.

It’s just another fun week in the world of fantasy football with several games offering some key matchups that should benefit fantasy owners in week 5.

Here are the plays I like this weekend.

QB-Anthony Richardson (Colts) - Time to jump on this bandwagon here. Richardson has been fantastic in this early season, currently the fantasy QB2, and now he could be getting back possibly the team’s best weapon (besides himself) in running back Jonathan Taylor. Richardson is poised for a big day against the Titans.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - After their demolishing of the Steelers in week 4, the Texans offense appears to be firing on all cylinders. Pierce ran hard in week 4, accumulating 24 carries for the afternoon. With the passing game starting to blossom, Pierce should find some open running lanes in Week 5 against the Falcons.

RB-De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - You’ve gotta roll the dice with the hot hand here. Achane has been explosive averaging over 10 yards a tilt on the ground over the past two games. Even if Mostert starts the game, there’s no keeping this kid off the field. The Giants are in town (ranked 29th versus the run) and a chance for Achane to keep rolling along.

WR-DeVonta Smith (Eagles) - The Eagles wide receiver has kind of been the quiet man in recent weeks with his fellow teammate AJ Brown dominating. Smith’s numbers have been overshadowed a bit by the great play of Brown, but he’s still the fantasy WR15 entering week 5. The over/under in this week’s matchup is hovering around 50-points and I like the over. I think Smith is due for a big game and this week is as good as any.

WR-Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) - This is purely a gut call here. Ridley has been just off the past couple of weeks, but the good news, he’s not forgotten. Ridley started the season with the hot hand, 19 targets in his first two games, but it’s been quite the opposite since with just 9 targets in his last two. There’s too much talent here to stay quiet. It’s a tough matchup against the Bills in London, but Ridley and the Jaguars will be well rested.

TE-Tyler Higbee (Rams) - Over the past two weeks the Rams tight end has been consistent averaging 5 catches for 67.5 yards receiving, good enough for the fantasy TE6 slot. With the Eagles coming to town, Higbee will have the opportunity to continue his steady play against a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

FLX-Breece Hall (Jets) - It’s hard to imagine Head Coach Robert Saleh not featuring running back Breece Hall this week on the road against the Broncos defense. The Jets HC announced Hall would not be on a pitch count any longer and this week they got the Broncos, one of the worst defenses in the league. If there ever was a time to unleash the second year running back, that time is now.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 5. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my best guesses about their respective week 5 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 29th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 4: Best Matchups)

We’ve entered another weekend slate of games, still trying to recover from the week that was and looking forward to the week that could be. Could there be any monster games lurking in the shadows of the week 4 schedule?

Just like the previous week there are plenty of tasty matchups and a ton of data to dissect and figure out how to take advantage. The fantasy world can be cruel and she can be kind, looking ahead to the games of Week 4, these are some matchups we are hoping she smiles;

QB-Daniel Jones (Giants) - It’s been a tumultuous season for the Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones to this point. A comeback win and two blowout losses have fantasy owners holding their breath and hoping for the best. Well some of the best could arrive this Monday in the form of the Seahawks secondary, ranked 31st versus the pass and allowing the 2nd most completions to opposing quarterbacks. Another big key for Jones will be his tight end, a position of weakness for the Seahawks defense, that ranks 27th against in yards allowed. Daniel Jones finishes as a Top-12 fantasy QB this week.

QB-Joe Burrow (Bengals) - The Bengals passing game has yet to find its wings in this young season, but week 4 could offer hope for Burrow and company to air it out. In week 4 Burrow faces a Titan’s secondary that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards (899-yards passing) and a 72% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. This game sets up as a get right matchup for Burrow and company. Sunday will be Burrow’s first 300-yard passing effort in 2023.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - It has been a very slow start for Pierce this season, currently the fantasy RB34, he has totaled just 100 yards rushing in three games averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. This week Pierce and the Texans will take on the Steelers and have a shot to finally get the running game out of first gear. The Steelers defense is ranked 31st against the run (entering week 4), allowing around 5.5 yards per carry, so if there was ever a time for Pierce to break out this week should be it. I say he does it.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Through the first three weeks of the season, Cook is the league's third leading rusher with 267 yards on the ground, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per tote. He’ll have a great chance to continue his success this Sunday facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed 337 yards rushing (ranked 27th entering week 4) at a 4.7 yards per carry clip. In his only game at home this season, Cook posted a 100-yard rushing effort and will look to continue this trend on Sunday. I like his chances.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - Higgins has had an up and down season through the first three weeks and this weekend sets up as a great chance to finish on the upside. The Bengals receiver will get a shot at a Titans secondary that has surrendered 57 receptions (3rd most) and 690 yards (4th most) to opposing receivers. Look for the Bengals offense to take advantage and Higgins to put up solid WR-2 numbers for the week.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) - Through the first two weeks of the season, Collins was well inside the Top-10 of fantasy receivers with 226 yards receiving and 13 receptions. Last week he was targeted just three times and had a quiet afternoon. The Steelers secondary has allowed the 5th most fantasy points and 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Collins to return to the form he displayed the first two weeks.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - Engram is the No.4 fantasy tight end through the first three weeks and he has been steady all season. The Jaguars tight end ranks third among tight ends with 21 targets, entering week 4 he ranked tied for 2nd with 18 receptions, and his 173 yards receiving ranks third. The Jaguars are in London this weekend to square off against the Falcons and Engram will get a chance to face a defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Entering week 4 the Falcons have surrendered 18 receptions (tied for the 6th most) and two touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends. Engram has been solid this season and hasn’t finished lower than fantasy TE7. This won’t be the week he does, expect more of the same.

TE-Kyle Pitts (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts enjoyed his most productive week this season, catching 5 balls for 41 yards receiving on 9 targets. The targets are trending in the right direction and the matchup this week is good versus the Jaguars. The Jags defense has allowed the 4th highest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and through three games they’ve surrendered two touchdowns. Expect Pitts to continue to trend in the right direction. This weekend he enters the Top-12 fantasy tight end discussion for the week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 4. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my forecasts about their respective week 4 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

RB Rankings for 2023

With the signal-callers out of the way, it’s time to look at the workhorses in the backfield. Here are my Top-10 for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Nick Chubb

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Bijan Robinson

6. Tony Pollard

7. Derrick Henry

8. Josh Jacobs

9. Rhamondre Stevenson

10. Najee Harris

With running back Kareem Hunt no longer in Cleveland, this paves the way for running back Nick Chubb to improve upon his No.7 fantasy scoring (points-per-game) finish in 2022. Last season the Browns running back posted 1,525 yards rushing (career high) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tying-career high). Chubb will be running behind one of the best O-lines in the game this season and at the youthful age of 27, he’s primed for a big year.

The Giants running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a bounce back year in 2022 (finished as the No.5 fantasy running back) after his disappointing 2021 season (finished as No.29), minimum of 10 games played. Last season Barkley set a career high with 1,312 yards rushing while posting 10 rushing scores (2nd most in his career). More than a full season removed from his ACL tear that cut his 2021 season, Barkley is a Top-10 fantasy running back heading into the 2023 season with Top-5 tendencies.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris rounds out the Top-10, coming in at number 10. Harris was disappointing in 2022 for fantasy owners finishing as the No.19 fantasy scoring running back (minimum 10 games). Harris took a step back in 2022, rushing for over 160 yards less than the previous season and catching 33 fewer balls. It’s no secret Harris played with an injury last season which could have played a big role in his regression. The Steelers offense looks a bit different this preseason (improved) and could be set up to take some big steps forward when the regular season starts. Now healthy, Harris figures to again lead the ground attack and should benefit greatly.

The Next 10.

11. Breece Hall

12. Travis Etienne Jr.

13. Aaron Jones

14. Joe Mixon

15. Dameon Pierce

16. Jahmyr Gibbs

17. Kenneth Walker

18. Alexander Matison

19. JK Dobbins

20. Alvin Kamara

The Texans running back Dameon Pierce slots in at number 15 in my rankings. He’s coming off a shortened 2022 season where he finished as the No.20 fantasy scoring running back. Pierce totaled over 1,000 yards with 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Pierce has the talent and ability to improve upon last season’s numbers and if he plays a larger role in the offense than originally thought, he’s got a chance at finishing as a borderline RB1/RB2.

Notably missing is running back Jonathan Taylor. In a 12-Team format, I am not willing to risk the draft capital with an early round pick. I’d rather sit on him and get him as my third RB or pass altogether.

Another notable back absent from my Top-20 is Miles Sanders, just missing the cut. Last season he finished as the RB22 in fantasy scoring, so I am pretty comfortable where I have him. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega