September 12, 2015
Saturday
Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway
Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.
A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).
Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise.
On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.
While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.
The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.
Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;
Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)
This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.
~David G
September 6th 2015
Sunday
FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE
For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.
And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.
The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.
For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.
The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.
This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.
~David G
