FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 8th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Wild-Card Saturday

Bush Will Need a Big Game
….the Saints will be minus running backs Pierre Thomas (injured reserve) and Chris Ivory (injured reserve) throughout the playoffs, so it now becomes the Reggie Bush show. Bush had one of his productive games in the team’s finale against the Buccaneers, but he’ll need to elevate his game in the post season if the Saints are to go deep. Bush still has plenty of explosion and speed and can also be a versatile weapon utilized in the passing game; he caught 34 passes in eight games this season.

With their depleted backfield entering the post season Bush figures to see an increased role and become more of a featured back in the Saints offense. He’ll get plenty of work today against the Seahawks 21st ranked run defense. Bush averaged just 4.2 yards per carry this season, but in the season finale he ran for 70 yards on just 9 carries. He’ll need that kind of running today against Seattle and he should get plenty of touches to do it.

The Seahawks have struggled this season with the ground game surrendering 16 runs of 20 yards or more, so look for Bush to break at least one big one today.
(My thoughts; 18 carries, 110 yards, 5 receptions, 25 yards, two touchdowns)

Williams Could Play Big Against Saints
….the Seahawks don’t have the firepower offensively to match the Saints offense, but what they do have you can bet they will use. The team recently signed wide receiver Mike Williams to a three year extension acknowledging they believe the kid is talented and can play; his 65 receptions also say the same.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck believes this too and will be looking for his big target all afternoon against a very tough secondary. The Saints have not done well with takeaways in the secondary this season, so you can bet Hasselbeck will be taking his shots. Williams is not a fast target, but should not have trouble finding space underneath coverage and over the middle of the field.

The Seahawks should be able to move the ball on the ground, but could struggle some in the red-zone today.
(My thoughts: 8 catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns)


It’s Manning Versus the World (Jets)
….there are not a lot of folks picking this Colts team to get very far, but I am pretty sure quarterback Peyton Manning is going to do everything he can this evening to push the Colts into the next round. It’s been no secret about Manning’s struggles and 17 interceptions this season, but while he has had his lumps, lets’ not forget the 4,700 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.

One way or another Peyton just finds a way to get it done and has done so for the past nine straight seasons. It’s not always been peas and carrots in the playoffs for the 13 year veteran, but he’s coming into the post season playing well and he has to be confident with his first round matchup. These are the same Jets he sliced apart a year ago and tonight you can bet it will be all about Manning versus Rex Ryan’s defense.

You can forget all the talk about a running game; the Jets know they have to stop Peyton and the Colts know they will live or die this evening with Peyton. This season Manning averaged 42 passes per game and will use no fewer this evening against the Jets; it will be a big night.
(My thoughts; 28 of 44 passing, 325 yards passing, three touchdowns)

Other notes…

…tight end John Carlson could get some play today against the Saints with coverage focused on the outside (Williams and Obomanu). Carlson only saw 58 targets all season (about four per game), but could be much busier today matched up with Saints linebackers.

….Marshawn Lynch should see considerable work early while the game remains close, but figures to disappear in the second half once the Saints open things up. Justin Forsett could end up seeing more work and fantasy points, especially in PPR Leagues.

…the Colts know they will have to stop the Jets run game. With Sanchez struggling under center (just one touchdown in his last five starts), the Colts defense will force the 2nd year starter to make plays; Sanchez could be in for a rough ride tonight.

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY WATCH

January 7th, 2011, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

Marques Colston: Practices and Will Be Ready To Go

The Saints will have their best receiver in action on Saturday against the Seahawks in the NFC’s first Wild-Card Weekend matchup. Colston (knee) has been practicing this week and is fully expected to start against the Seahawks 27th ranked passing defense.

Colston is the Saints big threat in the passing game leading the team this season with 131 targets, 84 receptions and over 1,000 yards receiving. With tight end Jimmy Graham looking doubtful, the Saints big play receiver (Colston) will likely become more of the focal point in the passing game in the red-zone. Colston scored seven times during the 2010 regular season and with his size and ability he's a good threat to score Saturday.

Saturday’s projections against the Seahawks.
(6 catches, 85 yards receiving, two touchdowns)

Peyton Manning: The Sheriff Will Have His Guns Blazing

The Jets will be in town on Saturday to face the Colts and even with Revis Island open for business, don’t expect the Sheriff to stay grounded. Quarterback Peyton Manning has had his struggles this season, but that appears to be in the past. In his last four starts Manning has played very well committing only two turnovers.

With the post season set to start, the only way the Colts are going deep this year will be riding the arm of Peyton Manning. Manning will be looking for a repeat performance of a year ago against these same Jets; Peyton completed 26 of 39 passes for more than 370 yards with three scores. He may not have all of his weapons, but he will still have plenty of bullets to fire Saturday night.

Saturday’s projections against the Jets.
(27 of 42 passing, 325 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception)

Ray Rice: The Ravens runner Will Lead The Charge

The Ravens will rely on their defense to slow down the Chiefs ground charge while running back Ray Rice will be expected to lead theirs. The Ravens will need a big game from Rice early to keep the Chiefs off balanced and allow the passing game to open up.

The Ravens will rely on Rice for their ground game, but even when quarterback Joe Flacco drops back in the pocket, Rice still figures to play a big part of the offense. Rice was second on the club with 63 receptions and finished the season with 556 yards receiving; he totaled nearly 1,800 yards of offense this season. If the Ravens are going to get past the Wild-Card round and defeat the Chiefs, it will take a whole lot of Rice.

Sunday’s projections against the Chiefs.
(20 carries, 95 yards, 6 catches, 40 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Green Bay Defense: The Return of the Sack Pack

After their dismantling of the Bears’ offense in week 17, it looks very clear for Green Bay; if they are to stop Vick the defense must play well. The Packers defense looked smothering bringing a ton of pressure a week ago against Jay Cutler and the Bears on their way to six sacks and two turnovers.

The defense will more than have its’ hands full on Sunday with Mike Vick running around. In order for the defense to have any kind of success against Vick they will have to bring constant pressure; back in week one the Packers sacked Vick three times. Pressure on the edge will be huge Sunday; players like Clay Matthews Jr and Charles Woodson will be the key to the Packers success.

Sunday’s projections against the Eagles.
(5 sacks, three turnovers)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 5th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

MANNING LOOKS READY FOR THE POST-SEASON
It’s been a bumpy ride this season for the older Manning experiencing one of his worst seasons taking care of the ball with 18 turnovers. Despite all the mistakes and injuries suffered this season Manning has managed to deliver another strong fantasy passing season (4,700 yards passing, 33 touchdowns), along with a seventh AFC South title in eight seasons.
My Fantasy Read:
Never count out Peyton Manning. He may have hit a bad spell, but all of that is in the past. In his last four starts he is 4-0 with nine touchdowns, 250 yards passing per game, and just two turnovers. Last season in the post season he torched the Jets in the divisional round, passing for nearly 400 yards with three touchdowns. He may not have as big a game, but you can bet he’ll be ready for Saturday.

RAVENS DEFENSE READY TO FACE JAMAAL CHARLES
The Chiefs boast the number one ranked run defense, but they will be facing one of the nastiest and most fierce defenses entering the post season. The Ravens enter Saturday with the leagues 5th ranked run defense allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game this season.
My Fantasy Read:
The Chiefs have enjoyed great success on the ground this season, but this week could be very different as they draw a Raven’s defense that has been on a roll. In their past three games the Ravens have allowed just 186 yards on the ground to opposing ball carriers at a 2.8 yards-per-carry clip. They have also allowed just five rushing touchdowns all season (tied for the fewest in the league with Pittsburgh). Charles is going to really earn every yard (which doesn’t figure to be a great deal) he gets on Sunday against Ray Lewis and company.

BREES READY FOR SECOND TIME AROUND
Quarterback Drew Brees and company met the Seahawks back in week 11 and won by a score of 34-19; of course that game was played in the comforts of the Superdome. Brees, who typically plays well at home, torched the Seahawks secondary for 382 yards and four touchdowns. This Saturday Brees will get the Saints title defense started on the road in Seattle. In his last six starts on the road the Saints are 5-1 and Brees has thrown 12 touchdowns while averaging over 290 yards passing per game.
My Fantasy Read:
At 7-9 the Seahawks are lucky to be playing at home, but that’s the reward for winning your division (regardless how tough). Unless there is a downpour (just light showers) in the forecast, the Seahawks secondary is in for a long day. Even though Brees has been prone to mistakes with seven turnovers in his last six road games, the Hawks 27th ranked pass defense will need a lot more help to slow down the explosive Saints’ quarterback on Saturday.

MIKE VICK SET FOR REMATCH WITH PACK
Michael Vick has enjoyed a Cinderella-type comeback this season, returning to his play-making form and evolving into a superb pocket passer this season. After being dinged up some down the stretch Vick sounds like he is close to fully healed and ready to take on his first post-season opponent since the 2004 season.
My Fantasy Read:
The Packers defense did a number on the Eagles offense back in week one registering six sacks and stymieing their passing game. It was Vicks first real opportunity to play; he rushed for over 100 yards and completed 16 of 24 passes for 175. Vick is going to see a lot of heat on Sunday, while this may cause some problems he’s still going to make plays; just too much talent and ability to shut down.

AIR-RODGERS LOOKING TO FLY PAST EAGLES
The Packers signal caller had his cob-webs cleared a few weeks back, but since his return he has been on point completing over 67 percent of his passes and passing for more than 600 yards in his past two starts. Air-Rodgers also has five touchdowns in his past two starts with only one turnover. The back-to-back wins to finish the season were enough to earn a berth to the dance and now Rodgers (28 touchdowns and 3,922 yards passing in 2010) looks ready to carry the Pack deep into the post season.
My Fantasy Read:
Sunday’s matchup with the Eagles has all the makings of being an old-fashion shoot out. The Packers don’t figure to have too much success running the ball against the Eagles, and with their defense having its’ own hands full with Vick; the offense is going to need to set the pace. Air-Rodgers has enjoyed a strong 2010 campaign with the league’s 5th ranked passing attack so he’ll be looking to target often an Eagles’ secondary that has allowed 31 passing touchdowns and 54 pass plays of 20 yards or more. It figures to be a monster passing day for the Cheese-head.

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

January 3rd, 2011, Monday

On the Cover

The Sheriff Is Back Again

Manning and the Colts Reach the Dance

It wasn’t by design, but the Colts made it back to the NFL post season for an NFL record ninth straight time with the 23-20 win over the Titans on Sunday. The Colts have had their ups and downs along with quarterback Peyton Manning who struggled through one of his most turnover prone seasons (18 turnovers in 2010).

Manning carries a lot of weight on the field for the Colts offense, whether they succeed or fail, but no one can argue that this has been one of his most challenging seasons with the flurry of injuries that have hit the offense. The Colts have seen players like Anthony Gonzales, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark fall by the way side to injury, but Manning continues to pull the trigger and bring others like Pierre Garcon (67 receptions), Blair White (five touchdowns), and Jacob Tamme (67 receptions) to the forefront; even names like Dominic Rhodes have resurfaced.

The 2010 season has not been the best for Manning and the Colts (10-6), but once again they have secured a spot in the Big Dance with their seventh AFC South title in eight seasons. Unfortunately for the rest of the AFC, they will have to worry about Peyton Manning this post season.

The Sheriff (Manning) has struggled this season some with ball security, but the post season is a whole other ball game. Last season in two home games Peyton was sharp completing 67 percent of his passes while throwing five touchdowns with one interception; including a three touchdown an 377 passing yard effort against the New York Jets (their opponents this coming Saturday).

The Jets will be in town (Lucas Oil Stadium) on Saturday and with the Sheriff on duty they had better be ready or it could be another round-up for Manning and company as they try to get back to the Big Show once again.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

January 2nd, 2011, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Today’s injury notes

The Eagles are looking more and more like they will sit quarterback Michael Vick today against the Cowboys. Vick has been knocked around pretty good the past couples of weeks. IF Vick does start, it would not surprise to see him give way to back up Kevin Kolb at some point.

After looking good in practice this week, head coach Mike Tomlin is leaning toward letting the Steeler’s playmaking safety Troy Polamalu play in Sunday’s matchup against the Browns according to ESPN.

The Brown’s running back Peyton Hillis is expected to be active and should start today, although he faces a very difficult matchup against the Steelers number one ranked run defense. Hillis only rushed for 41 yards in the earlier matchup this season.

Quarterback Brett Favre has finally been cleared to play for the Vikings, but his chances of getting on the field still look “iffy” at best. Favre has hardly practiced in weeks and the Lions have one of the best young pass rushers in rookie Ndamukong Suh; but then again would it surprise anyone if he played?

The Falcons wide receiver Roddy White practiced in full on Friday, so he is expected to play and start today against the Panthers. Even if the Falcons focus on the ground attack today, White should still effective; caught eight passes in the first matchup this season.

Reports are indicating that Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez will start today against the Bills, but is not likely to play no more than a few series. Sanchez has been banged up a bit over the past couple of weeks, so it makes sense for the team to rest him up for the post season.

Today’s Matchup

With an excellent matchup on his schedule it looks like running back Shonn Greene won’t get an opportunity today to take advantage. The Bills have one of the league’s worst run defenses this season, but Green won’t get a shot at them; he’s been declared inactive today.

The Giants are in a must-win game today and with no Steve Smith or Hakeem Nicks, it looks like it will be wide receiver Mario Manningham against the Redskins 31st ranked defense. Manningham has 12 cathces and three touchdowns in his last two starts.

The Bills won’t have to face Darelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie today, both have been declared inactive; start wide receiver Stevie Johnson. Johnson is having a breakout season with 77 receptions, over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns.

The Broncos will likely take a cue from the Bengals last week and attack the Chargers secondary with wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. In the two Tebow starts, Lloyd has 9 catches for 190 yards and a touchdown.

With no Andre Johnson in the lineup, wide receiver Jacoby Jones figures to pick up the slack in the Texan’s passing attack. Last week with Johnson out, Jones turned in a 5 catch 115 yards receiving day.

The Raiders won’t have any questions about who they will give the ball to today against the Chiefs. With no McFadden in the lineup, running back Michael Bush figures to see a heavy load today. Bush is averaging just a tick under four yards per carry, but does have seven rushing touchdowns this season.

By David Ortega