FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 19th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Takes (Fantasy Recap)

(Week 2 Fallout)

Well I bought into Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford last week, but unfortunately he wasn't selling anything on Sunday; Bradford sat out week 2 with a knee injury. A loss for fantasy owners as his receivers (Thielen & Diggs) were not the same in absence of Bradford. Backup quarterback Case Keenum was admirable on Sunday, but just not to the level or as efficient as that of week 1 Bradford.

Like week 1 there were quite a number of attention grabbers, concerns, mysteries, and plenty of take notice.

The attention grabbers would include; Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has two 300-yard passing games to start the season, the Broncos run defense holding Ezekiel Elliott to just  8 rushing yards on 9 carries, and Cardinals wide receiver JJ Nelson has scored in each of the first two weeks.

A couple Week 2 concerns would include the Seahawks & Giants offenses. In Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson (No.20 fantasy quarterback) is off to a slow start having thrown just one touchdown pass in the first two weeks and only completing 56 percent of his passes (lowest of his career).

In New York it looks worse with the Giants having scored just 13 points in two games. Only the Bengals and Niners are worse. That is not good company to keep. And in the center of this is quarterback Eli Manning who really looks like a fish out of water at the moment. His slide is having a horrific impact on his pass catchers; WR Sterling Shepard leads the group with just 9 grabs and 67 yards, rookie tight end Evan Engram has the only score. Right now the entire offense is a must avoid until further notice.

A mystery of week 2 is the disappearance of Titans running back DeMarco Murray; 10 touches on Sunday, just 28 total yards. Through two weeks Murray has 24 touches totaling 69 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards. Apparently Murray is nursing a nagging hamstring injury that is likely to keep him slowed for a while. What else may keep Murray slowed for a while is back up Derrick Henry. The Titans other running back tore loose for 92 yards on Sunday and will be expected to soak up the bulk of the carries for the meantime until Murray is healthy.

Recapping the rest of week 2, here are five things that we learned;

#1.

You have to wonder, was Trevor Siemian listening to Peyton Manning and was he really paying attention? Last season it would have been an easy answer, no. But on Sunday Siemian showed a lot more, which has to make you think, "Oh right!

Mike McCoy is calling plays now." He was the mastermind that tinkered with Tim Tebow and he also helped Peyton Manning begin his comeback tour in 2012. Whatever deficiencies we saw in Siemian last season, McCoy might just be the mentor to help him overcome and succeed this season. After two weeks, I'd have to say they are on the right track and Siemian is roster worthy is larger leagues (14-16 teams).

#2.

After watching the Patriots dismantle the Saints defense on Sunday, it quickly became obvious that running back Mike Gillislee is more than just short-yardage or the LeGarrette Blount role. Gillislee is the primary ball carrier in the offense, dominating the backfield with 18 carries on Sunday; next closest was Dion Lewis with 4 rushing attempts. James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis will continue to rotate in and out of the passing game, but Gillislee is the back to own in most formats. In PPR, I may give the nod to White, leads backfield with 13 targets and 11 receptions.

#3.

Is it time to move on from Adrian Peterson, is a question I read yesterday and I just thought I'd give my take; absolutely. We've seen enough in two weeks to see there is no package in place in the New Orleans that fits Peterson's skill set. He's not only not being utilized, he's not getting on the field. Out of a possible 127 offensive snaps, Peterson has only been on the field 24 times (roughly 19%); time to move on.

#4.

There's a candy in Denver or at least a Now and Later. After two weeks, it's apparent in Denver running back CJ Anderson is the "Now." He's been solid rushing for 199 yards and averaging 4.4 yards per carry thus far. He's currently the No.5 fantasy running back in PPR. And while he's looked solid, his backup Jamaal Charles has also looked good as the change of pace. In limited touches Charles has gained 86 yards rushing at 4.5 yards a clip. As long as he remains healthy, Charles has a great chance at becoming the Later in the Broncos rushing offense (especially as well as the line is playing). CJ is a current RB1 now and must-start. Charles is someone to watch and worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.

#5.

Tom Brady is King. As if we all didn't already know this. Well in case some forgot or started to believe he was beginning to lose his fight with father time afer a week one loss, Brady showed everyone once again why he is the G.O.A.T. On the road, in the SuperDome, squaring off against one of the league’s best passers (Drew Brees), Brady made his case as the best completing 77 percent of his passes and throwing for 447 yards, while tossing three touchdowns in the Patriots week 2 road win. Brady is still King.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

September 4th, 2015
Friday

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.

Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.

My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.

With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.

Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!

After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.

With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain. 

Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL). 

In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.

My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Evening Edition

August 28th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Picking Favorites

Thinking Draft Strategy

So you have the first pick in your league’s draft or maybe you have one of the early picks, either way you have a decision to make; pick with your heart, your gut, or do you follow some pre-planned strategy?

What I have been noticing (and something you may be seeing as well) in the top positions, if you grab one of the big four running backs you will still be able to come back with solid receivers late in the 2^nd and early in the 3^rd round. It seems most league players are jostling for running backs early leaving time for the early picks to come back with the Alshon Jefferys, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobbs.

And what I have also noticed (in PPRs), you can still turn around in the 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th rounds and find decent value; the likes of Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, and Andre Ellington. These are the players that may not win your weekly matchup on their own, but they will give you good production every week and keep you in the hunt so your big guns can get it done.

In a recent draft I held the 2^nd pick and took Adrian Peterson. With one of the top producing backs in the league I immediately targeted receivers selecting Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery. I followed those two with Roddy White and Reggie Bush; not sexy, but effective. Andrew Luck (my quarterback) was taken in the 6^th and my first tight end (Kyle Rudolph) came off the board in the 7^th.

In another draft I did tonight, I followed a similar pattern (picking in the 8^th slot) selecting receiver-receiver (Dez Bryant and Alshon) and then going running back with my next three picks; Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. My quarterback (Matt Ryan) and tight end (Dennis Pitta) came in the 7^th and 8^th round respectively.

If you are paying attention, then I am sure you are hearing the same thing; wait on your quarterback, there is time to take him later. Even grabbing a Brees, Manning, or Rodgers can be costly (depending on your league scoring), if taken too early. Let the other deal with that mistake and stick to your plan. The Ryans, Romos, and Cutlers are safe plays with the upside of big game potential and the Flaccos, Palmers, and Rivers will still be there even later to have your back in a jam.

With all of this said there are a lot of ideas and strategies you can follow, and any you choose is never wrong (it’s whatever works for you). But remember to stay on your game and be ready for the wild cards in the draft that can often foul things up.

No matter what happens, stay the course and draft well my friend.

Good luck this fantasy season!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Evening Edition

August 27th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

DRAFT! DRAFT! DRAFT!

Get Your Popcorn Ready!

If you have yet to start your league’s draft, then get your popcorn read, because this weekend is sure to be jam-packed filled with fantasy drafts. My annual excitement started last weekend with a marathon 30 round draft (six and half hours of time “on the clock” and endless drinking). Oh yeah, that’s the other half of the fun when drafting in a fantasy league (it’s a well-kept secret in case you were unaware).

So far through the past five days of fantasy drafting (in six leagues), the one thing I have learned you gotta be prepared. In one league where I had a chance to grab Peyton Manning early (fantasy gold), I snagged him off the boards only to realize my impulsive move turned out to be more costly than I would have normally thought.

So while I felt great about my quarterback selection, what I failed to realize was this was a three-starting receiver league. After taking running backs in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds I found myself with Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, and Justin Hunter as my starters. Now don’t get me wrong, none of these players are fantasy bums, but I am truly riding a leap of faith rolling with these three.

In another draft (8-team league) with the pickins a little deeper, I stuck to my guns. With an early pick at number 4, I grabbed DeMarco Murray and followed him with AJ Green (13^th pick) and Alshon Jeffery (20^th pick). Even though running backs were falling fast, I was still able to come back with Zac Stacy (29^th pick) in the 4^th round. I stayed away from the quarterback and took my Tight End (Julius Thomas) in the 5^th before nabbing Tony Romo; a risky proposition, but one I backed up with Carson Palmer in the 10^th round.

A couple of notable picks that I grabbed in the mid-rounds were running back Chris Johnson, wide receivers Torrey Smith and Marques Colston. These players I took later, but like their potential to have very productive seasons; top 25 respectively.

There’s plenty more to learn and plenty of time to practice the craft. With more than a week until the season starts I plan on using the available time to seek out the late round gems and fantasy sleepers that will help my teams get over the hump and pave their way to fantasy glory.

Who will you take first in your upcoming fantasy draft?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY RANKINGS QB (WEEK 15)

Saturday Edition
December 15th, 2012  

My Rankings

(Does not include Thursday’s Game)

Quarterbacks 

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Eli Manning
4. Cam Newton
5. Tom Brady
6. Peyton Manning
7. Matt Schaub
8. Josh Freeman
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Andrew Luck

11. Russell Wilson
12. Matt Ryan
13. Tony Romo
14. Jake Locker
15. Philip Rivers
16. Jay Cutler
17. Sam Bradford
18. Ben Roethlisberger
19. Joe Flacco
20. Carson Palmer

My notes: 

I like Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman this week against the Saints 30th ranked defense. The Saints are also allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. 

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been on a roll and will face the leagues 22nd ranked pass defense; a good road matchup against a Chargers defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Despite facing one the leagues stingiest defenses, I still like Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to post solid numbers. Brady is mistake prone with 29 touchdowns this season and just four interceptions.

Andrew Luck is still a top ten this week; facing the Texans defense he’s going to put the ball in the air early and often. He may fall victim to a couple of miscues, but he’ll still throw for a lot of yards and should pick up a couple of scores to help out fantasy owners.

The Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has been pretty consistent this season and I don’t expect things to change much on Sunday against the Ravens 23rd ranked pass defense. Peyton has 30 passing touchdowns and 3,820 passing yards this season and will be looking to improve on those numbers greatly this week. The Ravens can be stingy, but Peyton has many weapons and spreads the ball well.

I am not putting a lot of faith in Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this week although he is at home against the Giants. Ryan has been dodging bullets the past several weeks and facing one of the league’s best pass rushes (31 sacks this season) could make for a long afternoon.

Drew Brees tops my chart this week facing the Buccaneers 32nd ranked pass defense. Brees has been off the past couple of weeks with just one passing touchdown and seven picks, but Sunday he’ll take his shots at a secondary that has allowed 23 touchdowns this season; a great matchup to rebound.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
December 2nd, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

My week 13 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Peyton Manning)
The Sheriff (Peyton Manning) is in town or rather back home this week and he squares off against the leagues number 32nd ranked pass defense. The Buccaneers are stout against the run, but struggle versus the pass this season allowing a league high 315 yards passing per game. Manning should have a field day carving up the Bucs secondary (18 touchdowns allowed this season) for three bills (300 yards) and three dimes (touchdowns). The Bucs defense also allows the 9th most fantasy points to quarterbacks; a good reason to start Manning with great confidence.

Running Back (Michael Bush)
The Bears will have running back Matt Forte (ankle) on the field today, but with a sore wheel I would expect to see a lot of Michael Bush today; especially in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Bush is not going to find too many holes today against the Seahawks 12th ranked run defense (7 rushing touchdowns allowed this season), but his power style between the tackles could find some success around the goal line and earn him a couple of trips to pay-dirt. Bush is nothing more than a flex option, but a favorable play in touchdown heavy leagues.

Wide Receiver (Hakeem Nicks)
The Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks has slowly been healing his way back to health and now (at the right time with fantasy playoffs approaching) he’s getting closer to full health and ready to be a huge fantasy impact player. Nicks led the Giants passing attack last week with 5 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. This week Nicks will face the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers; a great matchup and great opportunity for Nicks to have a big Monday night.

Tight End (Owen Daniels)
The Titans defense is ranked 27th against the pass this season and allow the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends. That’s all the reason to start the Texans tight end Owen Daniels today. Another reason, Daniels (six touchdowns) is one of quarterback Matt Schaubs’ primary weapons in the passing game and will look to improve on his 47 receptions and 555 yards receiving. Daniels is a top 5 start today; get him in your lineup.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
December 2nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bad Weather is Good News for Spiller
The Bills running back CJ Spiller (830 yards rushing in 2012) could be looking at a heavy load today with the weather forecast predicting rain and wind. Spiller has been the most consistent back in the Bills backfield and will take the lead reins today. Facing the Jaguars 29th ranked run defense, Spiller is looking at possibly his best game of the season; a must-start today.

Rodgers Set for a Big Game with a Full Arsenal
The Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28 touchdowns in 2012) will enjoy the return of wide receiver Greg Jennings today. Although Jennings may be brought along slowly, the Vikings defense will still need to account for him along with Nelson and Cobb. Rodgers will be looking to bounce back after a sub-par game against the Giants last week; in his last two matchups against the Vikings Rodgers has torched them for 585 yards and 7 touchdowns. Today should be just another Sunday slinging the rock for Rodgers.

Thomas Looking for a Breakout Day
The Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas is having a fine 2012 campaign, but today could be particularly huge for the playmaker. Thomas and Manning have connected six times for scores this season, a number that could grow exponentially when the two square off against the Bucs today. The Buccaneers secondary is ranked last in the league against the pass and have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers (including 11 touchdowns); analysis, big game for Thomas.

Clark Looking to take Advantage of Broncos D
The Buccaneers tight end Dallas Clark has become one of quarterback Josh Freeman’s trusted go-to targets and after a slow start this season, Clark’s numbers are starting to rise. Those number should continue to rise even more today facing the Broncos secondary that has struggled against tight ends in recent weeks. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points to tight ends making Clark (31 receptions and 3 touchdowns in 2012) a top 10 fantasy play for week 13.

These are just a few of my takes for week 13.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

November 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

Turner Limited, Rodgers Could See More Action

The Falcons starting running back Michael Turner has been limited all week in practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday. Turner, who has remained relatively ineffective most of the 2012 campaign, could lose some touches this week should he even play. Back up Jacquizz Rodgers has slowly become more a part of the weekly game plan averaging 9 touches a contest over the team’s last three games. Rodgers has shown great productivity in his limited role averaging 65 yards of offense in the same span. Rodgers season high for carries is 10, something we could very well see him match against the Cardinals 23^rd ranked run defense with Turner ailing. Rodgers is a risky play in normal 10-team leagues, but in deeper formats he could be a sneaky sleeper.

Murray Doubtful for Sunday, Time for More Felix the Back

The Cowboys will likely not have the services of running back DeMarco Murray on Sunday, opening the door for back up Felix Jones. The Cowboys back up runner says he is feeling good and will have a great opportunity to show just how much agains the Browns 26^th ranked run defense. Jones is averaging less than four yards per carry this season and has scored just two rushing touchdowns in four starts this season. The Browns are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and have allowed only 7 rushing touchdowns this season, but they are giving up the 11^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Jones has a good matchup this week and looks to be a good flex option in deeper formats.

Tom Terrific Set to Shine on Sunday Once Again

With the emergence of a couple of youngsters and the return of an old foe, quarterback Tom Brady has seemingly become lost in the shuffle by normal standards. Despite the less press he’s been receiving in fantasy circles and the regular media, Brady has been terrific in 2012; 18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 293 yards passing per game. With the Colts up next, Brady looks set to shine once again. The Colts rank 15^th against the pass and allow the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, numbers that figure to rise after Sunday’s tilt. Brady has also been on fire as of late averaging 24 completions, 265 yards-plus passing per game over his last three starts; he’s also tossed 8 touchdowns without an interception. He’s a must start and facing a strong Colts passing game, Brady could post some big numbers this week to set the pace.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 11th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

Last week my horsemen were gangbusters riding high led by quarterback Peyton Manning and his 25 fantasy points (standard scoring). Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (16 fantasy points) and running back Arian Foster (17 fantasy points) also helped pace this small brigade.

Week 10 presents some key matchups, but we’ll be expecting nothing less than solid performances from our four riders as they get set to mount up in just a few short hours.

My week 10 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning, NYG)
Last week it was big brother, this week we are looking for little brother Eli Manning to step up with a huge performance this week. Eli and company are on the road today to face the Bengals 18th ranked pass defense. Manning is coming off a very poor performance and will look to rebound. The Bengals allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks; Manning will be looking to raise that number.

Running Back (Stevan Ridley, NE)
The Patriots are at home today and the Bills are coming to town. This is great news for running back Stevan Ridley. The Bills are ranked 31st against the run, they allow nearly 170 yards on the ground every week and have given up a league high 14 rushing touchdowns. Ridley has been fantastic in the run game for the Patriots and will see plenty of carries today. He has over 700 yards rushing this season and averages 4.7 yards per carry. His five touchdowns pace the Patriots ground attack; expect Ridley to pace the team today.

Wide Receiver (Kenny Britt, TEN)
The Titans are on the road to face the Dolphins 30th ranked pass defense today and wide receiver Kenny Britt can’t wait. Finally as close to 100% health as he has been all season, Britt will also see the return of his starting quarterback Jake Locker. Locker is the younger and stronger arm under center for the Titans, and he should enable Britt to take advantage of the Dolphins secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's time for Britt to return to form.

Tight End (Zach Miller, SEA)
The seldom used tight end Zach Miller could suddenly erupt into a fantasy gem today when the Seahawks meet the Jets. Miller has only 8 targets in the last games, but that could change today. The Jets defense allows the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends and this season have surrendered 6 touchdowns. Miller has just one touchdown grab this season, but he could add to that total today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES

Tuesday Edition
November 6th, 2012

  

Sunday’s Heroes

The Unsung

On Sunday quarterback Andrew Luck made a strong case why he should be in your weekly fantasy lineup. The rookie passer posted a monstrous 433-yard effort with two touchdown passes against the Dolphins on his way to leading the Colts to their 5th win this season. Luck has looked solid this season and with the Jaguars up next on the schedule, he could be a must play this week against the leagues 25th ranked pass defense.

The Buccaneers running back Doug Martin proved his week 8 breakout was no fluke, breaking loose again this past Sunday for 251 yards on the ground. Martin was grooving against the Raiders defense, slicing and dicing his way to four scores. Martins’ final numbers for the game, 25 carries, 251 yards rushing, 4 catches, 21 yards receiving, and four rushing touchdowns.

The Steelers found another gem in their backfield with running back Issac Redman. It seems whoever is healthy the Steelers line will carry. Redman ran well and torched the Giants run defense on Sunday for a career high 147 yards rushing on 26 carries. The Steelers backfield will become very crowded once everyone gets healthy; a real tough fantasy dilemma.

With the Raiders ground game coming to a screeching halt with the injuries to running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, the team found some relief with full back Marcel Reece. The Raiders big boy hauled in 8 passes for 95 yards receiving and a score. With McFadden and Goodson likely sidelined, Reece should see an increased role and plenty of action against the Ravens this week.

The Broncos have a couple of terrific wide outs receiving passes from quarterback Peyton Manning and perhaps the lesser known or heralded is receiver Eric Decker (the quiet one). Decker has quietly emerged as a real red-zone gem for the Broncos passing game this season tallying 7 touchdowns in 8 games. On Sunday Decker snagged 8 passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Demaryrius Thomas may be considered the big-play receiver, but Decker is making plenty of plays of his own.

The Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham has been relatively quiet this season, but on Sunday against the Broncos he finally made real noise. Gresham pulled in 6 passes for 108 yards receiving, both season highs. Gresham was held out of the end zone and only has two scores this season; even with his tremendous size in the red zone he continues to take a back seat to AJ Green. He’s a low end TE option until proven otherwise.



By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 4th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

We are going to ride again and for this week I am saddling up some big boys that should have some very big performances in week 9.

My week 9 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Peyton Manning, DEN)

It appears the Bronco’s have found their missing piece or so it would seem with the way quarterback Peyton Manning has played of late. Last week against the Saints, Manning was able to get the offense out of the gate early and often. Manning has looked effective and is putting up phenomenal numbers this season. With the Bengals (ranked 17th versus the pass) next on the slate, Manning looks set to keep the Broncos rolling. Manning has five straight games of 300 yards passing or more and four straight with three touchdowns. The Bengals defense allows the 11th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back (Arian Foster, Hou)

This pick is a no-brainer. The Bills defense has done a porous job this season against the run, ranked 31st and with Ben Tate already ruled out this sets up running back Arian Foster for a huge day. Foster is not only a threat on the ground, but he can be exceptional out of the backfield in open space. I look for the Texans to not only hand him the rock today, but Foster should be good for 4-6 receptions; he’s going to blow up today. The Bills allow the most fantasy points to running backs.

Wide Receiver (DeSean Jackson, PHI)

The Eagles speedy and big play receiver DeSean Jackson has done very little of that (big plays) this season. Jackson leads the team with 34 receptions and 524 yards receiving this season, but through 7 games he has just one touchdown and just one reception of 40 yards or more (5 in 2011, 8 in 2010). On Monday night Jackson will line up against a Saints defense that is ranked 30th versus the pass, has surrendered 15 touchdowns (just three picks), and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. This has the making of a breakout game for Jackson and company.

Tight End (Jason Witten, DAL)

The Cowboys tight end Jason Witten and quarterback Tony Romo have really been in sync the past several games. Witten has been heavily targeted and has posted four straight games with no fewer than 6 receptions and 7 targets. Witten is coming off a monster game last Sunday and with the Falcons up next (Sunday night) he should continue the hot hand. The Cowboys are plagued with injuries at the receiver position; Witten is going to be Romo’s safety blanket all evening. 


By David Ortega