FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers

(Week 7)

There is always going to be those weeks when players don't perform, when they get shut down, or when they tank big time. Those are the weeks and the games fantasy owners can only hope to safely navigate their way through, because when you don't these fantasy duds can kill a Sunday lineup. These are the week 7 Lineup Killers;

QB-Cam Newton; the Panthers quarterback looked much better in his postgame, then he did on the field Sunday (at least to most fantasy owners). Newton passed for only 211 yards with no touchdowns and two picks; not the numbers of a QB1.

QB-Eli Manning; the Giants signal caller was just awful on Sunday against the Seahawks. Manning completed just 19 of 39 passes for a mere 134 yards, throwing one touchdown. Without OBJ, Manning has quickly fallen off the QB1 big board and will likely continue to fall.

QB-Marcus Mariota; it was an off week for the Titans starter. It was just one of those games where Mariota could not get his offense out of first; he passed for 203 yards with no touchdowns. Fantasy owners are hoping Mariota can get things turned around soon; he's currently the No.21 fantasy QB.

RB-CJ Anderson; with the struggles of the Broncos offense, go the struggles of the run game and Anderson. It was another subpar week with just 11 touches for 61 total yards. As long as this offense struggles as it has, Anderson is not a great RB2/3 option.

RB-Melvin Gordon; it was another tough matchup against the Broncos defense, and in this case the Broncos won the matchup. Gordon was bottled up most of the day totaling just 44 yards on 19 touches. The good news here, 19 touches and the Chargers won't see the Broncos again this season.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back found little room to run against a tough Panthers run defense on Sunday. Howard totaled just 65 rushing yards on 21 carries. The good news here, Howard once again dominated the touches in the backfield with 21; his 5th straight game with at least 19 touches or more.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals star receiver was held in check on Sunday with just 3 catches for 41 yards. Green only had 6 targets on the day and could never really get going in a matchup pretty much dominated by the Steelers. His 6 targets were a season-low and probably something that won't be repeated any time soon.

WR-Keenan Allen; like his teammate Melvin Gordon, Allen was just a victim of a tough matchup against the Broncos. Allen caught 3 passes for 41 yards on 7 targets. Two things here, the 7 targets by far a season low and like Gordon, he won't face the Broncos again.

TE-Martellus Bennett; with the change at quarterback, there's going to be a lot of growing pains for the Packers tight end; just  2 catches for 17 yards on 3 targets. Bennett is off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 15th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting?

(Week 6)

QB-Trevor Siemian (start) The Giants look to be a mess this week. Decimated with injuries on the offensive side and a defense filled with drama and a suspension, this could be a good week to strike. The Broncos will lead with the running game, but look for Siemian to capitalize on some play-action and take shots. With DT and Sanders healthy, Siemian provides streaming option fantasy value this week.

QB-Eli Manning (sit) In the same game with his receiving corps completely wiped out last week, entering Mile High Country to take on the No Fly Zone, it's going to be a long night for Manning. Expect up close and personal introductions from lineback Von Miller and defensive lineman Derek Wolfe to occupy Manning's evening. Avoid this disaster in the making.

RB-Ty Montgomery (start) I would be surprised to see Montgomery picking up too many carries today. It would be more in line and make sense to see Montgomery almost exclusively involved in the passing game, defering most carries to rookie Aaron Jones. Nonetheless, I expect Montgomery to see enough touches and total enough yards to provide double-digit fantasy points in PPR today. He's a mid flex option today.

RB-Elijah McGuire (start) With no Powell and a less than 100 percent Matt Forte (turf toe), I like the rookie to get plenty of run in a favorable matchup against the Patriots. Count on McGuire to see 15+ touches today, enough to offer flex value in week 6.

RB-Adrian Peterson (Sit) It's too early to know what you have with Peterson in Arizona. The Cardinals are a pass first offense and it may take a while for All-Day to change that, if he's got anything left in the tank. The Cards also have one of the poorer O-lines in the run. Peterson's too risky to start this week.

WR-John Brown (start) Following the same theme with sitting Peterson, a healthy John Brown is a good start in Week 6 against the Buccaneers secondary. Brown has playmaking ability and the Bucs are a poor defense agains the pass, start Brown this week. He's a strong flex candidate.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Heroes

Not-the-Usual Suspects 

This is a late look back at some of Sunday's top performances from the guys you might not have been expecting. Did these guys help you? Whether they did or didn't doesn't matter now. They may not have been the usual suspects leading into week 4, but you'll be watching for their names leading into week 5 and beyond.

The return to the fantasy spotlight this week goes to Giants quarterback Eli Manning. With the talent at receiver he has this season, an athletic tight end, Shane Vereen out of the backfield, we'd surely expect to see Manning's name. Such has not been the case for a while, so his appearance is a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. It is concerning though, he had to heave the pigskin 49 times though. Nonetheless a big week 4 for Eli with 288 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and a rare rushing touchdown.

Last season Rams quarterback Jared Goff was not considered a viable fantasy option at any time. Nowadays, the 2nd year passer is making a case to be on rosters. He's continued his steady play and currently resides as the No.10 fantasy QB after passing for 255 yards with two touchdowns in a week 4 win over the Cowboys. Goff tops our list of signal callers for Week 4;

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: 255 pa yds, 2 tds

Eli Manning: 288 pa yds, 2 tds, 1 ru td

Andy Dalton: 286 pa yds, 4 tds

Deshaun Watson: 283 pa yds, 4 tds, 1 ru td

Maybe it's not usual to expect big games from running back Andre Ellington, but fantasy owners may have to get used to it. Each week Ellington has seen his touches increase and each week he has responded. In Week 4 Ellington fnished as the No.12 fantasy RB (in PPR) totaling 104 yards with 9 catches.

The Eagles newest battering ram running back LaGarrette Blount finally got rolling in Week 4. In the pass happy league that the NFL has become, Blount is more of a one trick pony sticking to the ground game. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, Blount has barely been able to pull his engine out of the garage totaling just 113 yards rushing. On Sunday Blount carried the ball 16 times and rushed for 136 yards (8.5 yards per carry average) adding a rushing touchdown and a 20-yard reception.

A very notable add to this list is the Saints rookie running back Alvin Kamara. It's quite evident the Saints love this kid and he's getting on the field regularly. He's been steady through the first quarter of the season and on Sunday he finished as the No.6 fantasy RB (in PPR). He's locked in a timeshare, but he's the Saint running back to own. Through 4 weeks he's the No.24 fantasy RB, 5 spots ahead of started Mark Ingram.

Running backs

Andre Ellington: 18 ru yds, 9 rec, 86 rec yds

LeGarrette Blount: 136 ru yds, 20-yd rec, 1 td

Giovani Bernard: 12 ru yds, 3 rec, 67 rec yds, 1 td

Duke Johnson: 13 ru yds, 9 rec, 47 rec yds, 1 td

Elijah McGuire: 93 ru yds, 2 rec, 38 rec yds, 1 td

Alvin Kamara:25 ru yds, 10 rec, 71 rec yds, 1 td

Bilal Powell: 163 ru yds, 4 rec, 27 rec yds, 1 td

A big surprise appearance this week comes from the Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace and for two reasons. First, we haven't seen much from Wallace this season, so this Week 4 appearance is eyebrow raising. The second reason is because how poorly the Ravens offense has played thus far this season. So don't get used to seeing him return often.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: 5 rec, 60 rec yds, 1 td

Mike Wallace: 6 rec, 55 yds, 1 td

Will Fuller: 4 rec, 35 yds, 2 tds

Tyrell Williams: 5 rec, 115 rec yds, 1 td

The interesting suspect at tight end this week is the Bengals Tyler Kroft. Their normal tight end usually plays fairly active in the passing game each week and with Eifert out for a few weeks Kroft may become a return visitor. His Week 4 performance of 6 catches for  68 yards and two scores earned him a trip here and put him on top of all fantasy tight ends this week.

Tight Ends

OJ Howard: 2 rec, 63 rec yds, 1 td

AJ Derby: 4 rec, 75 rec yds, 1 td

Cameron Brate: 4 rec, 80 rec yds, 1 td

Tyler Kroft: 6 rec, 68 rec yds, 2 tds

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

We are three weeks in and we’ve seen some football, but is it still too early to call it; who the best team is, who the best studs are, and what we can expect the rest of the way? I’d have to say hold that thought. Remember “Any Given Sunday” anything can happen, which leads me to my week 4 “Fantasy Five”...

Can Raiders and Carr bounce back?

Normally I would say that’s a given. Quarterback Derek Carr has that Rodgers like swag, lots of talent and plenty of weapons to go around. The only exception here is the Raiders next opponent; the Denver Broncos. But which Broncos team will show up? Last week the Bills had an fairly easy go. The Broncos have remained stout against the run, so keep Lynch in the stall this week, but I would hang with Carr on Sunday. but don’t expect his greatest success this week. The

Is it time to turn Charles loose?

Last week we saw flashes and throughout these early weeks of the season we’ve seen hints. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles looks healthy, he’s been running well, it’s time. Last week an ineffective run game for the most part submarined there hopes of winning on the road. I think you have to commit to Charles now if you are ever going to. Turn him loose and see what he can do. You have the luxury of a 1A-1B option in CJ, so you can use him to close games to save the thoroughbred. For now, Charles is still a risky flex, but my gut senses say he’s getting closer to cracking the starting lineup.

Do you trust Eli and the Giants offense?

I for one did not draft too many Giants this season, but I do have Odell Beckham Jr in a couple of leagues, along with running backs Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen. Needless to say after the first few weeks of seeing the mess this offense is, I’ve dropped Vereen and Perkins in a number. OBJ is still in my lineups for the 2-3 leagues I have him in, but it’s painful considering where I drafted him and what I’ve gotten in return. I think you have to wait it out with OBJ, but (Evan) Engram, Perkins, Vereen, and Marshall I am avoiding for the time being.

How good are the Rams and how good is Sean McVay?

It’s too early to be making such grand and bold statements, suggesting the Rams and quarterback Jared Goff are a great offense. But I’ll tell you, through the first three weeks I like what I see and I am buying into what McVay is selling. He’s put some nice pieces together and Goff is night and day from a year ago. I don’t believe we are at the point where you are starting everyone on this offense (just Gurley at the moment, Watkins is a flex), but we are moving closer and closer to seeing others become more prominent as fantasy fixtures. Stay patient.

Can Cousins repeat against Chiefs?

Week 3 was a wake up call for the Redskins offense last week and they were wide awake taking it to the Raiders. They will follow last week’s call with a big road test on Monday night against the Chiefs. Can Cousins repeat his scintillating Sunday night performance, it will be tough. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, but my belief is Cousins is starting to warm up this season and like Alex Smith (who will be on the other side), he’ll have company. Running back Chris Thompson is going to a matchup problem, tight end Jordan Reed (if healthy) will present some issues in the secondary, and the emergence of Josh Doctson who should be on fantasy radars. Cousins should be well equipped and fine on Monday night. He’ll present plenty of problems for the Chiefs defense that before Thursday night have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 18th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

Tonight’s not exactly what you might call a Primetime matchup, but there’s still plenty of fantasy relevance with names like Stafford, Manning, and Beckham on the slate.

So let’s talk about tonight’s matchup and some of the plays that could have huge impact and implication on your weekly season long league matchups and your weekly DFS lineups.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be in some DFS lineups tonight as well as a likely starter in season long leagues. Stafford is coming off a big week one performance with four touchdowns, but tonight could find slimmer pickings against a tough Giants secondary. Owners needing big numbers could be in for disappointment, but Stafford should come through with standard numbers in the 16-19 fantasy point range.

Wide receivers Golden Tate & Kenny Golladay, should once again be heavily involved in the passing game tonight. The Lions running game is certainly lacking after one week, and Stafford definitively favors his receivers; 25 targets of 41 passes to the wideouts. Tate is the heavy favorite in PPR, but Golladay could the better option in standard with the likelihood of a score tonight. Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr (2 targets last week) could be the odd man out tonight and may be better off on your bench.

Running backs Theo Riddick & Ameer Abdullah are both in play tonight, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers from either. Riddick is the PPR fave out of the backfield with 7 targets in week one, but Abdullah (4 targets last week) could see enough work in the ground game (15 carries in week 1) against a Giants defense that allowed 129 yards in week one to be lineup worthy.

Tight End Eric Ebron is currently off the radar. He’s a risky start coming off a quiet week one with just 2 catches for 9 yards. Stafford three the ball 41 times in week one and only went Ebron’s way three times. With that ratio, he’s sitting until we see changes in the passing game progression.

Quarterback Eli Manning is probably not in too many lineups tonight and probably a good thing, tough to always predict his outcomes. Last week was not good with just 6.70 fantasy points against the Cowboys, but tonight could fare a little better for Eli at home. He’s still not a lineup favorite, but could put up reasonable numbers in the 14-17 fantasy point range

Running backs Paul Perkins & Shane Vereen should both be plenty active tonight against the Lions. There was no question in week one, the Giants abandon the run with just 11 total carries. We could see a more patient offense tonight, especially if star receiver OBJ is not available. Even with additional touches tonight for Perkins, Vereen (9 receptions in week 1) is the only viable Giant’s running back I am starting, and that’s only in PPR leagues.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is the biggest factor and will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Giants offense. Amid current rumors it sounds like OBJ could play tonight, but it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. If he plays, he’ll be a huge risky start for fantasy owners. I am avoiding him in DFS, but may roll the dice with him in season long leagues.

Wide receivers Brandon Marshall & Sterling Shepard could see a bump in value is OBJ plays. Beckham Jr’s presence will certainly draw some attention and may allow Marshall and Shepard to operate underneath. Shepard (7 receptions & 88 yards receiving in week 1) is the favorite here, while Marshall may warrant some (but not much) consideration in PPR formats and TD heavy leagues.

Tight end Evan Engram had a decent showing in week 1 for an overall poor performance the Giants offense. The rookie tight end was targeted 5 times, snagging 4 for 44 yards. He’s more than likely in line to see similar numbers and may be worth starting in deeper PPR leagues. At 6’3” and with his athletic talent, he’s also worth a look TD-heavy formats as he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FANTASY FOOTBALL RULE NUMBER....

September 26th, 2015
Saturday

Fantasy Football Rule Number...

When in doubt, Thursday's Out. 

No, this is not my rule, but it happens to be one that I am strongly endorsing. It's always a tough start in any fantasy format playing on a short week, so unless you are starting those typical fantasy studs that are locked into your weekly lineup, you are safer staying away from those Thursday night matchups.

First of all, no one wants to go into the weekend with a couple of fantasy duds already locked into your lineup. It's just too much time to languish in the misery of second guessing and wishful thinking.

Where's the evidence? I don't know if there are any hard numbers to support the coined phrase, but just looking at this past Thursday's matchup is enough to convince me.

Even an elite receiver like the Giants Odell Beckham Jr provided little to excite the average fantasy owner. Now he did have a nice night with 7 receptions for 79 yards and a score, but considering where he was drafted and his current salary on the DFS sites, that bar is a little too low.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed also turned in a nice effort with 6 catches for 96 yards, but the lack of a score hurts those owners in leagues where touchdowns are heavy (especially the DFS sites). And if you were like me believing the hype around the Redskins rookie running back Matt Jones, his 38 yards rushing with a fumble and zero catches were costly in those lineups you played him in. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon, with DeSean Jackson out was a disappointing 5 catches for 64 yards and no score.

The best plays of the night were the Giants quarterback Eli Manning with 2 touchdown passes, 279 yards passing, and no turnovers, and wide recevier Rueben Randle with 7 receptions, 116 yards receivng, and a score.

When breaking it down, you had a division rivalry, so the teams are very familiar with one another. Playing on a short week it's tough to expect a traveling team to play big. You have an 0-2 Giants team, that could easily be 2-0, playing at home; you have to expect a better effort. It just reads as a risky play to count on much offensive output from the road team.

I think next time, if there's any dobut, Thursday's out.

That's my take.

~David G

SUNDAY SLEEPERS

September 13th, 2015
Sunday

Sunday Sleepers

I am not going to go through too many, so I will offer just a couple of Sleepers to consider for week 1.

In Green Bay with Nelson out (ACL injury) and James Jones only having been with the team for less than a week, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be looking to utilize his full compliment of weapons this week. Running back Eddie Lacy will likely carry the load on the ground, but when the team enters the red-zone, I am expecting Rodgers to really open things up. One weapon that is not getting a lot of noteriety is tight end Richard Rogers. In his second season, the former Cal Bear is a big target at 6'4" and will face a Bears defense that was worst versus tight ends last season (standard scoring), allowing the second most touchdowns. I expect the Rodgers connection at least once today.

Another Sunday Sleeper I am targeting is wide receiver Rueben Randle. Over-shadowed by his teammate Odell Beckham Jr, Randle brings something to the table and has had success with quarterback Eli Manning in the past. With Victor Cruz ruled out, Manning is going to have to look other places beside OBJ in the pass game. Randle finished strong last season with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and should be a lock for a couple of red-zone targets at 6'3".

Rodgers and Randle could be very successful plays in week 1.

Just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012

  

The Four Horsemen

My week 14 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning)
The Giants are at home today and quarterback Eli Manning has a prime matchup against the Saints 32nd ranked pass defense. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks set to play today, it’s a great chance for a big game from Eli; 300 yards passing, with multiple touchdowns.

Running Back (Alfred Morris)
The Redskins rookie running back Alfred Morris has been rolling of late tied for 3rd in the league with 1,106 yards rushing, he’s coming off consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts. Today he’s matched up against the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense and will look to make it three in a row.

Wide Receiver (Dez Bryant)
The Cowboys wide receiver has been playing at an extremely high level of late scoring in each of his last four games (six touchdowns total). He’s having a great 2012 campaign on the verge of surpassing the 1,000 yard receiving mark this week. He’s matched up against a pretty good Bengals defense, but one that was beat last week by Danario Alexander for 6 grabs and 102 yards; I expect at least those type of numbers from Dez today.

Tight End (Jermichael Finley)
Tight end Jermichael Finley has not been having a great 2012 by his standards and expectations of football prognosticators, but against the Lions 17th ranked pass defense his fortune could change. The Lions allow the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and with Jordy Nelson sidelined, Finley could see more targets tonight. I like his chances this week.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
December 5th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

The Strong Arms of the Fantasy Law

Schaub Could be the Goods in Week 14
Quarterback Matt Schaub has been on and off the fantasy radar much of the season leading the Texans balanced offense. This week Schaub faces the Patriots 29th ranked pass defense on Monday night in what could be a great matchup for fantasy owners. Schaub is very capable of having a big night against the Pats who allow the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have surrendered 22 touchdowns this season. Unless you have a much better option, this is the week to play Schaub.

Eli Ready to Lead Fantasy Playoff Charge
The Giants quarterback Eli Manning has been relatively quiet the past six weeks, passing for more than 250 yards in just one of his last five starts. This Sunday could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered with the Saints marching in. Eli will face the leagues 30th ranked pass defense that allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 23 touchdowns. For those owners looking to ride Eli to a fantasy championship, this could be the great start needed with the Falcons and Ravens to follow.

Romo’s Hot Hand Could Carry into Week 14
The Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has been on a roll the last three weeks surpassing 300-yards passing in each game. It seems Romo has caught fire just in time for the fantasy playoffs and he’s coming off back to back three passing touchdown performances. He’ll have his work cut out this week against the Bengals 11th ranked pass defense that allows the 9th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Romo should be a worthy play in deeper formats this week.

Ryan Could be Risky in Week 14
Matt Ryan has been struggling of late and his slumping could not have come at a worse time. In his last three starts Ryan has only tossed two touchdowns and has seven turnovers. The Falcons are on the road this Sunday facing the Panthers 8th ranked passing defense that does a pretty good job of getting after the quarterback (28 sacks); a tough matchup for Ryan. If you are counting on a big turnaround for Ryan heading into the fantasy postseason, it could be a risky undertaking this week; consider other options if available.

Freeman Has a Top 10 Matchup this week
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman has been playing much of the 2012 campaign in the shadows of the fantasy big names, but with 23 passing touchdowns and 3,003 yards passing he’s worth consideration. In deeper formats Freeman is a viable option this week and facing the Eagles 16th ranked pass defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks he’s a top 10 play; start him if you got him.


Just a few of my takes for week 14.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 11th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

Last week my horsemen were gangbusters riding high led by quarterback Peyton Manning and his 25 fantasy points (standard scoring). Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (16 fantasy points) and running back Arian Foster (17 fantasy points) also helped pace this small brigade.

Week 10 presents some key matchups, but we’ll be expecting nothing less than solid performances from our four riders as they get set to mount up in just a few short hours.

My week 10 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning, NYG)
Last week it was big brother, this week we are looking for little brother Eli Manning to step up with a huge performance this week. Eli and company are on the road today to face the Bengals 18th ranked pass defense. Manning is coming off a very poor performance and will look to rebound. The Bengals allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks; Manning will be looking to raise that number.

Running Back (Stevan Ridley, NE)
The Patriots are at home today and the Bills are coming to town. This is great news for running back Stevan Ridley. The Bills are ranked 31st against the run, they allow nearly 170 yards on the ground every week and have given up a league high 14 rushing touchdowns. Ridley has been fantastic in the run game for the Patriots and will see plenty of carries today. He has over 700 yards rushing this season and averages 4.7 yards per carry. His five touchdowns pace the Patriots ground attack; expect Ridley to pace the team today.

Wide Receiver (Kenny Britt, TEN)
The Titans are on the road to face the Dolphins 30th ranked pass defense today and wide receiver Kenny Britt can’t wait. Finally as close to 100% health as he has been all season, Britt will also see the return of his starting quarterback Jake Locker. Locker is the younger and stronger arm under center for the Titans, and he should enable Britt to take advantage of the Dolphins secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's time for Britt to return to form.

Tight End (Zach Miller, SEA)
The seldom used tight end Zach Miller could suddenly erupt into a fantasy gem today when the Seahawks meet the Jets. Miller has only 8 targets in the last games, but that could change today. The Jets defense allows the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends and this season have surrendered 6 touchdowns. Miller has just one touchdown grab this season, but he could add to that total today.


By David Ortega