FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

August 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

2011 in Rewind

The Busts, Duds, and Disappointments

Staying with the “looking back at 2011” theme, let’s talk about a few names from last year that drove us nuts, because of under-performing, pulling the disappearing act, or just not showing up; and let me say having played in quite a few leagues last season the list is long.

With the 2012 season just about to start, a new fantasy season upon us, and so much to be excited about, we won’t delve too deeply into this touchy subject. As is the case every year, there are going to be players that will break your heart and each year fantasy owners learn that tough lesson the hard way.

These are just a few of those players.

The Heartbreakers

Last season there were several, just ask all of the (RB) Darren McFadden, (RB) Jamaal Charles, and (WR) Andre Johnson owners. These were some of the biggest fantasy studs in the game last year and with their seasons cut short because of injury fantasy owners were left with nothing but heartache. There is tremendous talent with this list, but plenty of risk if you choose to go for broke and draft them early. Johnson and Charles might be safer picks, but McFadden is likely the trickier play. He has a history, albeit short history of being a homerun hitter on the field or swing and a miss play in fantasy. If you put all your eggs in his basket, be prepared with plenty of Kleenex (just in case).

The Chargers have a running back that might also fit this profile; Ryan Mathews. This kid has shown plenty of flash, enough to get fantasy homers and geeks all fired up, but his lack of health has made him a questionable early fantasy draft selection. He’s another stud that could leave you in tears if you put too much value here.

The Disappointments

For all the talk about “it’s their time” and “too much talent” fantasy owners of (QB) Michael Vick, (WR) DeSean Jackson, and (RB) Shonn Greene paid another heavy price if they bought into the early season hype last year. With Vick, you are just treading troubled water with a fantasy quarterback that exposes himself to so much risk when he runs the ball. As long as he can avoid taking hits, he’ll pay off big, but when he doesn’t fantasy owners are left to pick up the tab.

And so goes Vick, goes DeSean Jackson, so long as his head is on straight and he’s in the game. Jackson has become one of today’s Diva receivers, so you just don’t know what you will get. If he’s on, he can bring great reward, but when he’s has six games with 3 or fewer receptions and all less than 50 yards receiving with NO touchdowns, for a number one receiver that spells disappointment Big-Time.

Quietly another disappointing play in 2011 was the Ravens physical wideout, Anquan Boldin who finished outside the top 30 in both yards receiving and receptions. His three touchdowns last season were also his worst showing since his second year (2004) in the league when he registered just one in 10 games. The Ravens play a more conservative run-first style offense and with the emergence of deep threat receiver Torrey Smith, Boldin could continue to see his production diminish.

For all the flare he showed jumping over a defender to score a touchdown in his rookie campaign and looking like the incumbent in the Buccaneers backfield, running back LeGarrette Blount fell far from expectation in his sophomore season. The Tampa Bay runner finished with fewer carries, fewer yards, and one less touchdown in 2011 after starting in 14 games, 7 more than his rookie season. Unfortunately there wasn’t enough hype to carry this back into the top twenty in 2011, as he finished 24^th in rushing and just five scores; not what owners had in mind.

The Busts

It’s never fun kicking a man when he’s down, so rather than kicking many, we’ll just point out the obvious; Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb. Before the 2011 season the Cards inked Kolb to a hefty contract with plenty of green, but saw little return in their investment. Fantasy owners were equally (emotionally) hurt with the former Houston Cougar’s lackluster play in 2011 (ranked 28^th in passing yards. Kolb finished last season just playing in nine games (started 8), throwing just nine touchdowns with eight picks and 1,955 yards. I think owners were looking for a little more from someone who gets to throw to (WR) Larry Fitzgerald every week.

Let this be a warning for the fantasy owners eye-balling quarterback Matt Flynn in Seattle.

There were probably more names that were a whole lot closer to many fantasy owners hearts from a year ago, but I think we have covered the point sufficiently; caveat your emptor. If you are buying into the hype, beware; because every year we are going to have plenty of Busts, Duds, and Disappointments.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition

August 16th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

 

A Look Back at 2011

The Big Ballers

(And this year’s 1^st Rounders)

These players are far from any secret in the fantasy world, but if we are going to start any conversations regarding fantasy football it’s starts with these guys; Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, and Ray Rice. Rodgers like Brees, is becoming one of the more consistent elite passers putting up huge numbers, but probably his most impressive stat is his durability; has only missed two games in past four seasons (just one due to injury).

Megatron and Rice rule at their respective position by simply out-performing the competition. Johnson has ruled the air with 2,800 yards receiving and 28 touchdown receptions the past two seasons, while Rice handles the ground work with 3,700 total yards (rushing & receiving) with 21 touchdowns over the same span.

A couple of other names that need to be grouped here would included Arian Foster (scored in 8 of his last 9 games in 2011), Tom Brady (39 passing TD in 2011), and LeSean McCoy (20 touchdowns in 2011). Without question you don’t need much argument to justify a first round selection with any of these picks.

All of these players have the pedigree to be considered early fantasy draft picks and heading into the new season, there’s no reason to think these fantasy studs won’t pull their weight once again. These proven commodities in the fantasy world are consider safe picks, but while these ballers get the job done quite easily, there is a short list of names from a year ago that have made enough noise to draw early round consideration as well.

Surprises from 2011

There was some talk and a little preaching about a certain Graham in New Orleans emerging as a big target and red zone weapon for Drew Brees and Saints offense, but few had any idea tight end Jimmy Graham would blow up in 2011 as he did; 99 receptions, 1,300 yards. His numbers were like another wide receiver. His strong showing from a year ago has many folks talking about a repeat performance and at 6’7” and a world of athletic talent it seems very possible.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski was equally impressive with his strong 2011 showing (90 rec, 1,327 yards, 17 touchdowns) and as big a surprise. At 6’6’ he give Brady lots to work with and last season did they work it well.

Like the tight-end twins, a few other surprises that could impact the early rounds of drafts this season would include Saints running back Darren Sproles. Although not a feature back his 1,300 combined yards, 86 receptions, and 9 touchdowns could keep him from slipping too far past the first round (especially in PPR leagues).

A pair of wideouts that could be very interesting in the coming fantasy drafts would include Packers wideout Jordy Nelson (15 receiving touchdowns) and Giants receiver Victor Cruz (1,536 receiving yards). With the Packers high-octane passing game there certainly seems to be plenty of balls to go around and Nelson could easily see an increase in his 94 targets from a year ago making him an attractive early receiver option. On the other side Cruz is coming off a big season and with the absence of wide receiver Mario Manningham (signed with the 49ers), there could be more room for this talent to blossom even more.

The 2012 season is just a few short weeks away and we still have plenty more to talk about, don’t you just love Fantasy Football?

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

August 14th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

The NFL Returns: Fantasy Football is Back

The Pre-Season is Here

With replacement referees on hand and one week in the books the NFL is back and with it Fantasy Football. Sure it’s only the preseason and it may be early, but it’s not too early to start talking fantasy football. If you check out the internet, you can catch mock-drafts galore and plenty of cheat sheets for your league’s upcoming draft. And for some fantasy drafts never come early.

When camps opened just a few short weeks ago, that was just a teaser to whet the appetite. With games now being played and a chance to view some of our favorite players, the fantasy faithful mouths are watering and we are ready for some football.

The 2012 campaign is well under way and as with each new season come new questions, especially for the fantasy world as we prepare for our upcoming drafts.

Just a few questions some may be asking;

Can Denver be the new Peyton’s Place?

My Take: So far the risk looks like it could pay off huge in 2012. Peyton Manning has been looking strong, especially for a guy that took a year off, but to keep things in perspective we have not seen a large enough sample to make a complete assessment. He does however, look good and appear to be heading in the right direction.

How will the arrival of Tebow impact the Jets?

My Take: The Jets are hoping to cash in on some big pay-offs, especially in the red-zone, but that’s no secret. Tebow was not regarded as much of a passer in Denver, yet he was still able to find pay-dirt on the ground.

Which Rookie will have the greatest impact?

My Take: RGII and Andrew Luck would appear to be the popular picks and after watching their first preseason performances, there’s much to be excited about. It’s still too early to decide, but either way, these two are likely to be later round fantasy picks for most (if selected at all).

Can Rodgers repeat in 2012?

My Take: There’s enough evidence to believe that Rodgers will produce strong numbers in 2012, but you have to keep things in perspective; 4,600 yards, 48 total touchdowns (45 pass/3run) and just six turnovers last season was ridiculous. He’ll post similar yardage (maybe more), but his 45-6 ratio will be a tough act to follow; more like 38-9.

How will Payton’s absence affect Brees?

My Take: The Saints have been hit hard this off-season by the league with suspensions, but even without the normal captain of the ship, Brees and company should be fine. Last Season Head Coach Sean Payton missed some time and spent a number of games in the booth, leaving Brees with the keys to the offense. Coming off his record setting season, I think Brees is going to be just fine driving the Saints offensive machine again in 2012.

Will Moss or Owens be relevant in 2012?

My Take: I am sure this is not a burning question for too many, but just a couple of thoughts; in San Francisco even if Moss is looking good and has regained some of that old form, it’s still quarterback Alex Smith under center. That’s a tough knock, but Smith has been around a while and we’ve yet to see anything to indicate all he needs is a big-time receiver. And at 35 after a year off, would you still call Randy big-time?

By David Ortega