FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

October 19th, 2013 

David's Daily Digest

Week 7: Man Crushes

This is a big week for me in several of my fantasy leagues. In those where I am doing very well (5-1 start) I have a chance to create some separation and another where I am struggling at 2-4, it's a time to make a move and get back into the thick of things.

Facing such a pivotal point of the season, it's no time to start throwing out reason and following one's heart. If I am going to find success this week in any of my fantasy leagues, I need to be smart and read the numbers; numbers never lie.

Numbers that don't lie....

The Chargers roll into Jacksonville this weekend and with a savory matchup for quarterback Philip Rivers facing the Jags defense I have a huge week 7 Man-Crush on tight end Antonio Gates. The Chargers savvy veteran is having a strong 2013 campaign; 36 receptions and 466 yards receiving. Gates looks rejuvenated this season running on healthy legs and facing the Jaguars this week he should keep things rolling. The Jags allow the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends, tied for the 10th most receptions allowed (31) to tight ends, and tied for the 4th most touchdowns allowed (5) to opposing tight ends. These numbers don't lie.

The Eagles will roll out with quarterback Nick Foles this Sunday, who will be making his second consecutive start this season. Last week Foles was slinging it passing for 296 yards and tossing three scores. Tomorrow when he faces the Cowboys secondary, he will be looking at the secondary that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the 2nd most passing yards (1,974), the 2nd most passing completions (164), and the most touchdowns (14). You have to love these numbers.

The 49ers are on the road this week to face the Tennessee Titans and running back Frank Gore could be licking his chops. Over the past four weeks Gore has been on a tear rushing for 417 yards with two touchdowns averaging more than five yards a pop. This week he faces the defense that allows the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, tied for the 7th most rushing touchdowns allowed (5), and the 7th most rushing yards (585). I like what these numbers are saying.

I recently picked up running back Eddie Lacy in a couple of leagues and I already like what I am seeing. Last week Lacy was strong rushing for 120 yards on 23 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and with a tasty matchup this Sunday he looks good to keeps things moving forward. Tomorrow Lacy will line up against the Browns defense that allows the 12th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the most rushing touchdowns (6), and the 3rd most receptions (36). Not only do these numbers speak loudly, but they also say the nice PPR possibility.

These are the numbers for week 7 and they don't lie.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition

October 17th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 7: My Sneaky Plays

Well I wouldn’t actually call these starts for week 7 sneaky; it’s more for a lack of a better phrase. I would however say that I do like these players however very much for their matchups this week and their potential.

Redskins tight end Jordan Reed has 9 catches for 108 yards in his last two games and in three of the four games he has played this season he’s been targeted at least six times. This Sunday he’ll be facing the Bears defense that allows the 15^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 448 yards receiving (fourth most). Over the past three weeks, the Bears secondary has allowed 18 receptions and 211 yards receiving to opposing tight ends (and this includes zero catches and yards in week 6). Reed is not a top tier tight end, but with quarterback Robert Griffin III getting healthier, I like the prospects of Reed seeing more opportunities and becoming more productive.

With quarterback Nick Foles under center in relief of starter Michael Vick, Eagles wide receiver Riley Cooper has suddenly found some fantasy relevance. In the first five weeks Cooper totaled 19 targets, recording no more than 2 catches in any one game; last week with Foles he was targeted six times and produced his best game with 4 grabs for 120 yards and a score. These are numbers I would not expect Cooper to necessarily duplicate, but if you need help at the receiver spot he’s got a juicy matchup with weekend with the Cowboys. The Boys from Big D allow the 14^th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 9^th most yards receiving (1,071) and the 12^th most receptions (76).

One more for week 7, but this is hardly any kind of secret if you have been paying attention; Chargers running back Danny Woodhead. Over the past five weeks Woodhead has had no less than five targets per game (38 total), averaging more than 7 per each contest making him an excellent PPR prospect. In his last five games Woodhead has collected 34 passes for 251 yards with three touchdowns; and this is all through the air. On the ground he has added over the same span, 37 carries for 139 yards rushing. Averaging more than 14 touches per game in the last five weeks, Woodhead is a great prospect for production against a Jaguars defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If he’s available, pick him up and get him in your line up.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 15th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 7: Waiver Wire

Week six was a kind week for me in fantasy football going 5-2 in my seven head-to-head leagues, but my success came with a price. With several injuries now afflicting my teams, it’s time for me to really dig into the waiver wire for some week 7 relief.

The free-agent well is drying fast from one week to the next, but with constant change in standard re-draft leagues, you can still find hope if you look. The players of note that have affected my teams include wide receivers Julio Jones (IR), Calvin Johnson (knee), running backs DeMarco Murray (knee), and quarterback Michael Vick.

In the case of Julio, I am fortunate in one of my deeper PPR leagues to have Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas. He’s probably nothing more than a flex option at best going forward, but he’s going to see his targets increase and have some nice games ahead; he has greater value in PPR leagues. If you are thin at receiver, he’s definitely an option to consider off the wire for week 7 (especially with a dinged-up Roddy White).

Like Jones, the injury to Calvin is opening doors for fellow teammates like Lions wide receiver Kris Durham. In the case of Durham, even though Johnson (8 targets) played last week he was still targeted a team high 13 times. In fact Durham has dominated the targets over the past two weeks with 21; only running back Reggie Bush (12 targets) is the other Lion with more than 9. Even if Calvin plays this Sunday, Durham will still see his fair share of work and the rapport between he and his QB only gets better from week to week.

Vick is still injured this week and expected to miss another start, with backup quarterback Nick Foles slated to make his second start, he’s a must grab for two reasons. First after his 296 yards passing and three touchdown performance last Sunday showed a great command for Chip Kelly’s offense, this week’s matchup against the league’s 30^th ranked pass defense makes a great second reason.

Another possible target off the wire this week is Cowboys rookie running back Joseph Randle. With Murray likely (not confirmed) to miss time this Sunday, Randle is in line to carry much of the load against the Eagles this week. Now Randle’s numbers were not off the charts last week after Murray went down (13 touches for 32 total yards) this past Sunday night, but the encouraging numbers were his 13 touches; it shows the teams commitment to the run game and the rookie. He obviously has greater value to Murray owners as a hand-cuff and insurance.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

October 13th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6: Bold Predictions

I don't have a crystal ball nor do I make a living at fortune telling, but like the next guy I can take a stab in the dark and make some bold statements and not-so-crazy predictions. And let me tell you after five weeks it does not get any easier, but being an avid fan and every Sunday watcher of the NFL I can offer a little perspective.

Strong Play

Looking at today's matchups there is one player that jumps out at me as my "strong play" of the day; quarterback Joe Flacco. His matchup with Green Bay today is a premium matchup that will call on hims to throw the ball a ton. With a versatile running back like Ray Rice, Flacco can look deep often and quickly dump it in the flat. The Packers will put a lot of pressure on the Ravens to score and I can only imagine seeing Flacco putting the ball in the air 40-plus times today.

Weak Play

I have running back Frank Gore going in one of my lineups today, but I don't see him having a big day. The Arizona D is strong against the run and Gore is going to have a long day trying to find holes. The good news, if the 49ers can get out front or keep things close throughout the day, they may stay patient and stick with the run giving Gore a lot of chances throughout the day.

Surprise Play

It may be a stretch, but I don't believe in the Steelers running game and think that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is going to throw a ton today. Now a ton may be an exaggeration, but I like Ben and believe he has weapons and will spread the ball. Last Monday night Matt Ryan passed for 319 yards and two touchdowns; Ben could see similar numbers with a faulty run game.

That' my take.

~David Ortega