FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

September 7th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Ready for Sunday

There really is nothing like fantasy football and without question, Sunday is the when the party really happens. Thursday night was just the trailer, a little teaser. The party starts Sunday and we are less than 10 hours from kickoff on Sunday and I am ready (are you?).

As I am going over lineups and checking all seven of my fantasy teams (this season), I like what I am seeing. I am just hoping Thursday night was just a small taste of what I hope to see from the rest of my fantasy teams. Yes I was one of those fortunate fantasy owners with Demaryrius Thomas in my lineup (he’s actually on five of my seven teams). I also had Peyton Manning on one of those DT teams, so I am off to a great start.

With players like Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Jamaal Charles, and Jason Witten going for me on Sunday I believe my fantasy teams are ready.

Some quick notes on my dudes;

Rodgers has a real tough matchup, but I am expecting him to sling-it early and often. He should rack up enough yardage and a couple of scores to keep my team motoring on Sunday. Stafford is a similar play; he’ll be tossing the pigskin all over the yard and with Calvin Johnson the recipient on many of those throws (I am expecting at least 10 targets), both should provide the fantasy punch my teams need.

I believe Jam Charles, who will be facing the Jaguars defense on Sunday could lead all runners in rushing yards after week one, but I also expect very good days from Darren Sproles and Ahmad Bradshaw for fantasy owners PPR leagues. Both should see plenty of work on Sunday in both the air and ground game.

A couple of flex options I am crushing on for week one, is wide receiver Pierre Garcon against the Eagles. I have been hearing plenty of raves and great reviews and before going down early last season Garcon was on pace for a big season. Healthy now, maybe 2013 is his year. A player I am watching and like as a flex for week one (especially in deep leagues) is rookie wide receiver Kenny Stills. I like Colston as an option (WR2-3), but entering his 8^th season at the age of 30 I believe there’s room for new blood in the Saints aerial attack; watch for Stills.

One more note, before I call it a night; I drafted both tight ends Jason Witten and Antonio Gates in several leagues. I don’t believe either is going to rack up big numbers in the yardage column, but each should post plenty of grabs (especially Witten) to be strong PPR plays. I also like Gates as a primary red-zone target on a team (San Diego) with a lack of options.

These are just my thoughts on some of the players I drafted this season and will be starting in week one. I am sure I will have many more thoughts in the morning, but I think I can sleep on this.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

September 6th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

What We Learned Thursday Night

Well it’s easy to see what we learned Thursday if you can read a simple box score; seven touchdowns should tell you all you to need know about quarterback Peyton Manning. When it comes to fantasy football and the NFL, it doesn’t get much better than Manning.

With our first taste of Manning-to-Welker, fantasy owners found out there is plenty of Mile High Magic in this new dream connection. Nine receptions and two touchdowns make Welker a fantasy must start in all standard leagues as well as a fantasy darling in PPR.

We always knew Demaryrius Thomas was a great talent and special fantasy player, but Thursday night we found out the kid is also a beast. What we didn’t know was that his cousin tight end Julius Thomas (no real relation) was going to join the show.  The Broncos’ tight end is big, physical, and athletic and it appears he’s already a Manning favorite. I like the looks of the kid and believe he will remain a nice compliment (low end TE1) to all of the other toys Manning and Broncos offense already possess.

While the Broncos passing game was all good Thursday night (42 pass attempts), we did also learn their offense is not perfect.  The Broncos ran the ball just 21 times and none of the three backs (Moreno, Hillman, and Ball) posted fantasy worthy numbers. The convoluted Broncos backfield may not offer any solutions anytime soon and would appear to be something fantasy owners should avoid for the time being.

On the other side, we may not have expected to see quarterback Joe Flacco to put the ball in the air 62 times, but he really had no trouble making plenty of strong throws (he just needed more of his teammates to make some grabs). Flacco’s play indicated a strong QB2 fantasy option, but we also learned he doesn’t have weapons quite like Peyton or reliable options he can trust.

While Torrey Smith was respectable with 92 yards receiving he still needs to elevate his game some before he can be counted on as a WR1 fantasy option; he’s more of a mid-high WR3. Tight end Dallas Clark was a surprise and disappointment (with costly drop) all wrapped into one, but Ed Dickson was absolutely forgettable. Both need to be more consistent and lose the drops. Dickson has the potential, but Clark is clearly the safer play.

The only fantasy star for the Ravens was less than spectacular, but if this was a bad game for him then Ray Rice owners can breathe heavy sighs of relief. Rice was still effective with 71 total yards and a score and his 8 receptions will keep owners in PPR leagues happy.

While fantasy owners learned much from the Ravens offense on Thursday, we can only hope their coaching staff will learn Rice needs more than 12 carries to be effective and Flacco needs some help on the outside (hint, hint, Brandon Lloyd, Laurent Robinson).

We’ve still got 15 more games left in week one, so there’s still plenty more to learn.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition

September 5th, 2013

 

David’s Daily Digest

Not-So-Bold-Predictions

For Thursday Night

We are less than 24 hours from Kick-off and the Water-Cooler lines have to be running around the block by now; with fantasy football the leading and only topic. Tomorrow night it all kicks off with the Ravens and Broncos squaring off at Mile High; and what more appropriate place for the 2013 NFL (and Fantasy) Football season to get started.

As if fantasy owners needed any more reasons to salivate, but give them Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense at home to kick-start the season and we are talking plenty of fireworks and lots of points (we like points).

So let’s get to it; no surprises here. Give Manning weapons and one of the best offensive lines in the business and you can expect production and lots of it. Fantasy owners will be starting Manning at the new Peyton’s Place and even facing the defending champs we can expect big numbers. Peyton will have plenty of weapons at his disposal and with numerous options I like DT (Demaryrius Thomas) and (Eric) Decker to see plenty of targets and at least one trip to the end zone for each. Welker (Manning’s newest toy) will play well, but he’ll offer greater value in PPR snagging 6-8 balls (although I wouldn’t think for anymore than 70-80 yards). Tight End Julius Thomas is big, physical, and athletic, but owners may want to temper their expectations and see how this ride handles before going all-in early.

The Broncos running game is a bit of an enigma with lots of questions. We could be looking at the newest Rubik’s cube unless one of the Broncos young horses finds a way to gallop some distant from their competition. This play may be safest to steer away from for now, but if you play in a deep league and must start one my favorite is Hillman. As long as he takes care of the ball he has great explosion and is a threat to break one. The rookie (Montee Ball) could show greatest value in PPR, if he can improve his pass protection and get on the field during passing downs.

Without linebacker Von Miller the Denver defense takes a hit, and might not be one of your better values for week 1. With that said, quarterback Joe Flacco and company could have success in the air, although the only reliable play in the passing game I see is Torrey Smith (should be a safe week 1 start as a low WR2). Flacco on the other hand is probably best on your bench this week.

The versatility of running back Ray Rice always makes him a solid start each week. He should be solid out of the backfield for owners in PPR leagues. His ground numbers could be held in check, but I don’t see the Broncos keeping him out of the end zone. Bernard Pierce will definitely see some action, but I don’t see him doing enough damage to be worthy of starting in week 1 on the road.

Other starts and sits for Thursday include (Broncos); Start-Manning, D. Thomas, Decker, and Welker (PPR). Sit-J. Thomas, Tamme, Moreno. (Ravens) Start-Rice, Smith. Sit-Flacco, Pierce, Jones, Dickson.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

September 4th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Football:

The Clock is Ticking

With the opening Kick-Off to the 2013 Season less than two days away, fantasy football enthusiasts have to be champing at the bit. And like many of those fantasy fanatics I am just as eager for the season to start, but even with just two days left I am still drafting away and joining leagues.

Which takes me to my thought regarding drafting and being on the clock. As I am watching the many programs that offer advice and listening to the many shows that share player insight you have to pay attention to your draft position when targeting talent. There are some players (based on position) that will come off the board late, taking them too early could cost you from getting a quality back-up or second position skill player.

Just a food for thought I like to follow, tight ends generally run later and there are still plenty of wide receiver fish you can take toward the middle rounds. Once you have reeled in some of the bigger fish you were eying early (your RB1, WR1, etc) look for that second skill player in the backfield and then follow with your number two wideout.

If you are like me and drafting late (8^th or 9^th position) in a 12-team league, with running backs falling left and right early I like to stack my WR positions first, then grab middle talent in the backfield (from the 10-20 rank, value difference is not significant). You can still fill your starters and find value for your flex or bench spot.

Just throwing some (running back) names I am seeing (and liking a little later) from the third round on; David Wilson, Reggie Bush, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles (especially PPR), Ahmad Bradshaw, and Frank Gore. Tight ends I was able to target later, 6^th round and beyond; Jared Cook, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels, and Antonio Gates. Grab depth at running back and if you can get a quality third receiver in the first six round

In a few of the leagues I am playing in a lot of other owners will go for the Manning’s, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady quick. Players like Stafford, Romo, Newton, Luck, and Ryan will still be there in the 5^th, 6^th and even 7^th rounds (you have time to get a quarterback after you stack your skills positions. Even RGIII, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson went as late as the 7^th round and beyond. Be patient and find the best value; it’s out there.

There’s only two days left, so make sure you join a league and create a team. And remember the clock is ticking, so draft well.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

August 31st, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

The NFL is Back Baby!

And so is Fantasy Football!

With all four weeks of the NFL preseason in the books, the 2013 Fantasy Football Season is in full swing. Football fans and fantasy fanatics alike are gearing up for another great season of NFL action and fantasy footbal; and I am one of those fanatics! We've enjoyed our six months of dormancy (how any of us survived is one of life's greatest mysteries), but now it's time to get our fantasy football engines roaring once again.

With the Labor Holiday weekend near complete I am four fantasy drafts complete and excited as heck to get it on in five days (The NFL kickoffs this Thursday with the Ravens and the Broncos).

Just as many of us do every year, millions of fantasy goers (including myself) geared up the past couple of weekends with our fantasy drafts; and if any of you are like me, you had several drafts to prepare for. And that is usually some of the greatest fun we enjoy from fantasy football; well that and winning of course.

With four drafts on the board (and maybe a couple of more to go-who know, undecided at the moment), one of the best pieces of advice I can offer to other enthusiasts as they prep for their last minute drafts before the start of season; research and preparation. Going into a draft without being prepared or any knowledge of recent news can be devastating to your cause.

Several sources I like to follow and would highly recommend for up-to-the-minutes updates and news, Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen are usually great sources to follow. I also use a lot of media links through Twitter (USA Today Sports, Bleacher Report, ESPN NFL Nation, and AP NFL) to keep my network up to speed with the latest happenings. For fantasy football updates and analysis I have my own personal favorites I follow and would definitely suggest drafters to identify a couple of sources of their own to follow (you need information to make decisions).

Remember on draft day you have to have your research done (have a strategy ready) and be informed or you could suffer the fate of drafting an Alex Green, Johnathan Dwyer, or Andre Brown ( players cut or injured that have zero draft value as of today).

Before I end this short rant I have a couple of quick thoughts to share, as I prepared for multiple drafts, with leagues that offer different scoring formats, I prepared one universal draft board for all drafts. I wanted to avoid over-thinking things too much. I believe a fantasy stud is a fantasy stud regardless of the format. While scoring in some leagues might dictate you put a little higher value in certain skill positions and players, in general I find my draft board to be applicable across the board (with some slight adjustments here and there).

So don't over-complicate things by having too many draft boards and too many reports to study leading up to your draft, too much can be too wrong. Using one general board (with lots of notes) will help give you an idea of where value is and that is the second thought. As your draft moves along, be ready and flexible to adjust to whatever trends may arise. Have players of value targeted so you are ready to take advantage of your opponents mistakes and over-valuing.

Preparation will go along way for you on Fantasy Draft day.

~David Ortega