FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

November 23rd, 2013

David's Daily Digest

WEEK 12: Perfect Lineup

I don’t know if it’s possible to come up with it and surely I have not been close all season, but I am more than happy to share my week 12 Perfect lineup. There are no keys, there is no science, it takes a lot of luck and maybe an authentic and working crystal ball.

Now looking at week 12, if I owned a working crystal ball, what it might be telling me is the following;

Quarterback

The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been not just hot, not just on fire, but rolling thunder over his past five games. When he’s not tossing scores (13 in the five-game span), he’s lighting up opposing defenses for nearly 500 yards (488 yards passing in week 8). Stafford has a nice matchup this week against the Buccaneers (8^th most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks), so I like his chances of having a big Sunday.

Running back

The Bears defense showed last week why they are one of the worst against the run allowing running back Ray Rice to ramble free for 131 yards on the ground. It was Rice’s best game of his 2013 campaign; enter Rams running back Zac Stacy. The Bears allow the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and Stacy has been solid rushing for more than 100 yards in two of his last three starts, including three touchdowns in his last two. Stacy with his 15 receptions is also a two-dimensional back that can contribute in the pass game.

Running back

The Niners are need of a big win and with a Monday night matchup against the Redskins, their key could lie with the legs of running back Frank Gore. The Redskins allow the 2^nd most fantasy points to running backs and Gore has been very consistent this season rushing for 70 or more yards in 7 of his last 8 games. The Niner’s ball carrier is coming off a 13 carry effort, so I am expecting him to see at least 20 touches on Monday.

Wide receiver

The Texans are at home this week and wide receiver Andre Johnson has been on a roll the past three weeks. Over that span he’s grabbed 24 passes for 382 yards and five scores; he’s been a fantasy stud for owners. This Sunday poses a small bit of a challenge, but one he should overcome facing a Jaguars defense that allows the 16^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers; including 12 touchdowns.

Wide receiver

It’s been a tough campaign this season for the Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald, but he is coming off a nice six-catch, 61-yard, with a touchdown effort. This week could offer similar, if not better results for the playmaking wide receiver. Fitz will be lining up against the Colts secondary that allows the 11^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers including 12 touchdowns. Look for a nice Sunday from Ftiz.

Tight End

I may have missed out on the best chance of getting this one right after Jimmy Graham’s Thursday night performance, but with the same confidence I will roll with the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. The big tight end is a force over the middle and he’s just starting to get his (football) sea legs. He’s scored in each of his last two games and facing the Broncos defense tomorrow evening, a secondary that allows the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, Gronkowski is poised to have a big night.

Place Kicker

Since we have to pick a kicker, I guess it makes sense to go with one that has a shot at multiple trips into the red-zone. The Broncos Matt Prater could get numerous looks at opportunities in a classic Sunday matchup where points will be at a premium. Both teams should be able to move the ball, but on the road the Broncos won’t want any trips into New England territory coming out empty.

Defense

It seems each week the Jaguars offense (allow 2^nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses) is usually on the wrong end of fantasy matchups, making the opposing defense one of the top plays each week. At home this week, nothing is different of the Texans defense facing the 1-9 Jaguars. I like the chances of JJ. Watt and company coming up with a nice performance this Sunday!

This is my take for Week 12.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

November 17th, 2013

 

David's Daily Digest

WEEK 11: Risk Reward

There is a good chance that we will be seeing wide receiver Percy Harvin make his debut today and while this is great news for fantasy owners, it is also one of those proceed with caution plays. Harvin has only been practicing a couple of weeks with the team and the word is he will see limited snaps. While the kid has all the traits of being a playmaker and impact player, it’s tough to gauge just what he will do in 10-15 plays. I have him on several fantasy teams and I am excited to see his return, but it’s one that I will likely wait on unless I am facing a desperate situation at the wide receiver or flex spot.

With that noted, these are flex plays I am starting instead of Harvin; running back Giovani Bernard. The Bengals running back faces a tough matchup agains the Browns today, but Bernard has scored in double digits five times this season including his past two games. Bernard has also totaled 199 yards with a score over the past two weeks on 35 touches, including 12 receptions. The Browns have allowed 54 receptions to opposing running backs this season which is the fifth most in the league.

Rookie wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is slotted in one of my flex spots ahead of Harvin. I believe in Harvin’s talents, but I like the chances of Hopkins getting more play today against the Raiders. The rookie receiver has developed a nice rapport with his quarterback Case Keenum. In their last three games in which Keenum has started Hopkins has been targeted 21 times, including 11 targets last week, producing 199 yards receiving and a score. The Raiders also allow the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, another reason while I will go safe with less risk.

This is my take for Week 11.

~David Ortega