FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Saturday Edition

October 20th, 2012 

The Four Horsemen

Last week was not one of my more memorable selections with a couple of horsemen falling off their ride and getting hurt. The only player from last week worth a mention was quarterback Matthew Stafford who managed a nice 22 fantasy points (standard scoring) against the Eagles.

This week my horsemen are locked, loaded, and ready to ride. They may not be the highest fantasy performers this week, but I believe all will be top-5…

My week 7 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Andrew Luck, Ind)

There’s no place like home for the Colt’s quarterback Andrew Luck and with the league’s 30^th ranked pass defense coming to town, there’s sure to be some sweet hometown cooking. The Browns have allowed 15 touchdowns through the air this season and are giving up more than 290 yards per game. At home this season Luck has accounted for seven touchdowns (6 pass, one run) with just two picks. He has also passed for more than 300 yards twice in three games; he’s averaging 299 yards. He appears to be in line for a strong performance; 325 yards, 2 scores, 15 yards rushing, and 26 fantasy points (standard).

Running Back (Darren McFadden, OAK)

The Raiders are in need of some kind of jump start this season and nothing like jumping on the back of their dynamic running back Darren McFadden. Fantasy owners like the Raiders are awaiting Run-DMC’s coming out party in 2012 and with a home matchup against the Jaguars 30^th ranked run defense, Sunday may be the ticket. McFadden is coming off a big workload last week against a good Falcons defense and could be in line for another. The Jaguars allow more than 160 yards on the ground and have allowed seven rushing touchdowns. Run-DMC looks good for a buck twenty-five with a score, add a couple of grabs for another 30 yards; 21 fantasy points projected standard scoring.

Wide Receiver (Brandon Marshall, CHI)

The Lions are in trouble with the Bears next on their schedule and their 16th ranked banged up secondary can’t be too excited about the prospect of having to cover wide receiver Brandon Marshall. The Bears wideout and his quarterback Jay Cutler are starting to hit their stride; in the past two weeks Marshall has grabbed 19 passes for 282 yards with two scores on 25 targets. Marshall figures to be targeted heavily on Monday against the Lions and looks primed for another big game; 7 receptions, 115 yards receiving, one touchdown, and 17 fantasy points in standard scoring (higher in PPR leagues).

Tight End (Scott Chandler, BUF)

The Bills tight end Scott Chandler has quietly turned into a secret scoring weapon for the offense this season; four touchdowns in six games. He is coming off a poor outing (just one catch) against a pretty good Cardinal defense, but could be looking at very different results this weekend against the Titan’s 29^th ranked pass defense. Chandler is not a prime candidate for big yardage, but could see a few extra looks on Sunday to go with a trip to the end-zone. I like the big tight end to snag 4 passes for 50 yards, add a score, for 11 fantasy points (standard).

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Saturday Edition
October 20th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 7 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

This week presents significant challenges for fantasy owners with six teams on the sidelines, but even with so many studs taking the day off there will plenty of stars shinning on Sunday. As I am looking over this week’s matchups I am seeing quite a few names jump out at me that I think are solid plays for week 7. Here are just five of my favorites for Sunday;

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
The Bills offense has sputtered at times this season, but even with some rough outings this season quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has managed to outperform (in the fantasy world) some names like Stafford, Rivers, and Schaub. With a very favorable matchup this Sunday facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense (Tennessee), Fitzpatrick should be able to take advantage of a defense allowing nearly 72% passes completed and 292 yards passing per game. The Titans secondary has also given up 13 passing touchdowns this season; Fitz and the Bills should have little trouble cashing in. I like Fitzpatrick as a high end QB2 and worthy of a start in deeper leagues.

Kenny Britt, WR
In the same game the Titans offense is looking at similar possibilities for success. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will be making his third start this Sunday and facing the Bills 20th ranked pass defense (13 passing touchdowns allowed and 255 yards passing per game), I like his go-to receiver Kenny Britt to finally step up in 2012. Last week versus the Steelers Britt finally found the end-zone and he was heavily targeted; 11 targets last week. I expect to see Hasselbeck continue to look his often was this week leading to some nice fantasy numbers. We could see a lot of grabs, not necessarily big yardage, but he could make a trip to the end zone making him a strong flex of low end WR2 this Sunday.

Josh Freeman, QB
The Buccaneers passing offense has been breathing a little life the past couple of weeks with quarterback Josh Freeman averaging 313 yards in the air with three scores in the team’s past two games. This Sunday the Bucs play host to the New Orleans Saints and the offense may once again have to lean on Freeman and his arm. The Saints offense puts up a lot of points per game and fortunately for Freeman and the Bucs offense the Saints defense gives up a lot of yards (283 yards passing/game) and points (30.8 points allowed per game). This matchup is shaping up to be a big day of passing for Freeman and with his new found toy (Vincent Jackson; three touchdowns in last two games) he could also score a couple of TDs. Freeman looks to be a nice bye-week fill.

Hakeem Nicks, WR
It seems the Giant’s playmaking wide receiver Hakeem Nicks is getting healthier managing a full week of practice. This is good news for the Giants offense and even better for fantasy owners. There’s no question that wideout Victor Cruz has blossomed into one of Eli Manning’s main go-to receivers, so defenses will have to be sure to account for him. This should open some opportunities for Nicks on Sunday facing the Redskins 32 ranked pass defense. When Nicks is healthy he is more than just dangerous, but add a suspect secondary that allows over 325 yards passing per game and has surrendered 15 passing touchdowns this season and he is a must-start (twice on Sunday).

Donnie Avery, WR
In Indianapolis Reggie Wayne is quarterback Andrew Luck’s main go-to guy tied for the NFL lead with 70 targets this season, but wide receiver Donnie Avery is no forgotten man on the other side. Avery is far and away second on the team with 47 (9.4 targets per game). On Sunday the Colts play host to the Browns and it’s highly likely that Wayne will draw a lot of attention from the Browns top corner Joe Haden. Avery should see plenty of favorable matchups and with Luck not shy about looking his way; this could be a breakout Sunday for the Colts number two receiver. Avery should be played as a strong flex or a WR2 bye week filler.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition

October 17th, 2012  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

This Weeks Trend-setters

These fantasy contenders or pretenders are just a few names of those that seem to be catching on at the moment, or could be on the verge of breaking out very soon. With week 7 heavily filled with bye teams, these are some of the names that are currently trending on the gridiron; 

Donnie Avery, IND: the Colts wideout has not been much of an impact through the first six weeks, but he is steadily in quarterback Andrew Lucks sight every week. Avery is second on the team with 47 targets this season, including 20 in the teams past two games; it’s just a matter of time before he and Luck start to hook-up.

Dez Bryant, DAL: the Cowboys playmaker has been coming up big of late with 21 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his past two starts. He leads the team with 28 targets over the past two games and figures to continue to be the team’s main go-to receiver. With the Panthers 19th ranked pass defense on the slate for Sunday, Bryant looks positioned to continue to be a fantasy trend-setter.

Kenny Britt, TEN: the Titan’s playmaker is gradually working his way back into the picture. Last week against the Steelers Britt found the end-zone for the first time this season. His 11 targets were also a team high. With the veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck under center once again this Sunday, expect these two to continue to work out the kinks and get back on the same page.

Vincent Jackson, TB: the Buccaneers passing game has slowly been coming out of its’ slumber and last Sunday Vincent Jackson was a major contributor grabbing four passes for 66 yards, including two for scores. V-Jax led the team with 8 targets in their blowout win over KC and he also leads the team this season with 46. He’s been on a roll with 10 grabs for over 160 yards and three scores in his last two starts and with the Saints 26th ranked pass defense up next for the Bucs, Jackson looks primed to continue this trend. 

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition

October 17th, 2012 

Davids daily digest

Eli Manning has had a pretty good 2012 campaign, but it looks to get a lot better in a hurry this Sunday. The Giants will play host to the Washington Redskins on Sunday and fantasy owners have to be loving this matchup. The Redskins are ranked dead last in the league against the pass and have allowed a league high 15 passing touchdowns. It looks like it could be a big day for Eli.

Good news for Darren McFadden owners, the Raiders appear to be determined to get their playmaker involved. In week 6 Run-DMC finished his game with 30 touches for 98 total yards of offense and with the Jaguars 30^th ranked run defense next on their schedule McFadden figures to be busy once again. The Jags allow more than 160 yards rushing per game and have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns this season. It’s a good bet McFadden visits the end-zone on Sunday, at least once.

The Buccaneers offense awoke from its’ slumber in week six against the Chiefs scoring 38 points. Quarterback Josh Freeman turned in a big game passing for over 300 yards and tossing two scores. This Sunday he could find similar success against a very shaky Saints defense. The Saints secondary is ranked 26^th in the league allowing more than 280 yards in the air with nine passing touchdowns given up. Freeman is on a roll averaging 313 yards passing with three touchdowns in his last two starts; he’s in a groove and could be feeling the funky beat this Sunday against the Saints.

The Bills running back Fred Jackson had his best game a week ago in part-time duty splitting carries with CJ Spiller. Jackson touched the rock 21 times and totaled more than 80 yards with a score. Jackson will be looking to build off that success this week facing the Titans 24th ranked run defense. The Titans allow nearly 130 yards per game and have surrendered 7 rushing touchdowns; Jackson should enjoy considerable success and could make another trip back to pay dirt.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 16th, 2012 

David's Daily Digest

The Week in Review

Breaking Down my Week 6 Picks

Well, whoever said making fantasy player picks was easy must also have some beach front property in Wyoming to sell. It’s definitely not down to a science, because if it is I need to sign up for the class. Taking a look back at my picks from week 6, ouch!

There were definitely a few misses, but I think I might have saved a little face with some good calls. Every week I am going to start taking a look back at the just completed week and break down my picks and see how I did. So before I start handing out cigars or patting myself on the back, lets start with;

 My Week 6 Duds

It looks like the Giants tight end Martellus Bennett is still in need of a little mending. Not able to cash in on a generous 49ers secondary (4 touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season) Bennett finished Sunday with just one catch for 9 yards.

In the desert quarterback Kevin Kolb was just frustrating to watch, often holding the ball too long and taking way too many hits and sacks. Kolb made the Bills defense look perennial exiting the game early with just 128 yards passing, one touchdown and one pick, He was also sacked five times and as a result of all the punishment he took, he will now be sidelined at least six weeks.

Running back Trent Richardson was a big disappointment on Sunday facing the Bengals. An injury forced him out early with just 37 yards on the ground and it was his back-up Montario Hardesty who enjoyed success rushing for 56 yards with a score.

The 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Giants for fantasy owners. The team’s leading receiver finished the game with just three catches for 26 yards.

Hardly a dud, but if not for his touchdown grab on Monday night Demaryrius Thomas fantasy owners would be very upset with his week 6 output. Clearly the Chargers were intent on not letting Thomas break loose, but he did manage to find the end zone. Expect better days and more often.

Others I missed on, the Texans were completely blitzed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game. After falling so far behind, Matt Schaub and the offense really struggled against the Packers pass rush, tight end Owen Daniels was a miserable 3 catches for 46 yards. Running back Reggie Bush finished his day with just 17 yards rushing, but he did have 5 grabs for 44 yards.

While we can’t always be right, it is nice to hit the nail on the head with some of my picks each week;

My Week 6 Studs

On Monday night the new king of comeback, quarterback Peyton Manning did not disappoint with three second half touchdowns and finishing the game with over 300 yards passing. Manning started slowly, although he was completing a high percentage of passes in the first half, but clearly he rose to another level in the 2^nd half.

Quarterback Andy Dalton is the type of fantasy success you have to take with a grain of salt, take this past Sunday for instance. He’s goping to give you big numbers from time to time, 381 yards passing and three touchdowns, but they often come at a cost (three interceptions). For the season Dalton has 12 touchdown passes, but he also has 9 picks; you take the bad with the good.

Manning was the only star on Monday night and it could have been much bigger if not for some thick yard-line paint around the 35 yard line. The Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker finished the night with 6 grabs for 98 yards and a score, but just imagine how much bigger his game could have been had he not been tackled by the 35 yard line (yes that is by, not at). As long as Thomas lines up on the other side, Decker is going to see more games like this.

The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford appears to going through some growing pains this season as he struggles to recapture some of last years’ lightning in a bottle. He wasn’t all bad on Sunday, but he did start painfully slow. Stafford struggled early, but finished mightily passing for 311 yards, tossing one score and running for another. If he can just get out of the gate, he’s got a chance to put together some big games.

The Raiders running back Darren McFadden was a workhorse on Sunday toting the rock 27 times and grabbing three more passes. Run-DMC finished Sunday with 98 total yards and a score, although he did have a fumble. If the Raiders stick to this plan, he’s going to have some big games down the road.

Fantasy owners will be hoping for much better games than this, but running back LeSean McCoy managed to save a bad day with a touchdown grab to go with this 48 total yards (22 rushing, 26 receiving) of offense. And for those in PPR his seven receptions were a nice touch.

It was not a big Monday night for the Chargers running back Ryan Matthews, although maybe if it had been the games; outcome would have been different. Matthews finished the night with 74 yards rushing (on 22 carries) and 19 receiving. Like McCoy and Bush, Matthews four catches may make him a very attractive option in PPR leagues.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MNF QUICK TAKES

Monday Edition
October 15th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest
MNF Quick Notes

Monday Night Football Fantasy Takes

Tonight the Broncos will showcase on Monday Night Football their biggest prize from the offseason, quarterback Peyton Manning. Through five games this season Manning has not let his new team down, playing at a high level and leading one of the league’s best offenses; 6th rank passing and 8th in the league in scoring. Manning’s number speak for themselves; 66% passes completed, 1,499 yards passing, and 11 touchdowns; tonight could be a lot more of Manning against the leagues 22nd ranked pass defense.

With Manning spreading the ball all-around the field tonight, the focus will undoubtedly be on his big target DeMaryrius Thomas; enter wide receiver Eric Decker. Decker is second on the team with 44 targets, just two less than Thomas. He can be expected to be just as involved and productive in the pass game. With Thomas pre-occupying the defense the team’s second leading receiver Eric Decker (28 catches, 343 yards, 2 touchdowns) should see plenty of opportunity tonight to post solid fantasy numbers for owners.

Running back Ryan Matthews saw plenty of work last week in the Chargers Sunday night loss to the Saints. Now that Matthews is healthy (18 touches last week), he’ll quickly become a staple in the Chargers run game and tonight could be a very good start against a questionable run defense. The Broncos run defense was sliced and diced a week ago by the Patriots for over 200 yards on the ground, tonight Matthews will try and do the same. Matthews rushed for 80 yards on 12 carries last week and facing the Broncos r21st ranked run defense he looks to improve on those numbers.

IDP Special

On the other side of the ball, another Bronco that should make plenty of noise is linebacker Von Miller. The speed rushing linebacker leads the team with five sacks in five games. Miller has also become one of the league’s most menacing and disruptive pass rushers in the game today and is equally effective in the run game with 23 total tackles this season. He’s an IDP favorite for tonight.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Sunday Edition
October 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6 Quick Takes

Likes

The Lions are not known for being a stellar run defense, even with Ndamukong Suh lining up. The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has elevated himself to elite status as a runner and for fantasy owners, it’s about that time to rise again. The Lions have been respectable, but McCoy is too dynamic to be contained and should contribute in both the run and pass game today.

The Texans and Packers could be headed to an old-fashion shootout tonight when they take the field. There’s no question the Packers secondary will be focused on containing wideout Andre Johnson, but I like tight end Owen Daniels to exploit some matchups and have a big game. Daniels has emerged as one of quarterback Matt Schaub’s favorites and leads the team with 33 targets.

With Daniel Thomas sidelined, this could be the week that Dolphins running back Reggie Bush makes believers out of everyone again. Bush is having a decent 2012 campaign, but today’s matchup against the Rams 18th ranked run defense could be the spring board he’s looking for. The Rams allow well over four yards per carry, nearly 120 yards per game, and in five games have surrendered six rushing touchdowns. I like Bush to have a nice game on the ground and look for him to add a couple of grabs to the stat book.


By David Ortega