FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 26th 2017

Sunday morning Edition

My Week 12 Injury Takes

Here is the latest of some key players as the Countdown to Sunday Kickoff winds down;

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end (ankle) is expected to play and should see his normal workload in a juicy matchup against a Niners defense that’s allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s over the past month. Graham needs to be in lineups.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins; the Texans receiver (foot) is expected to play Monday against the Ravens. It’s a tough matchup against a stout Ravens secondary, but Hopkins is a must-start every week.

QB-Jacoby Brissett; Brissett (concussion) has been cleared to play and will start Sunday against the Titans. Brissett should have his full complement of receiving weapons against a Titans defense that’s allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the past two weeks.

WR-Chris Hogan; the Patriots receiver (shoulder) has been ruled out for week 12. His absence continues to open up the target distribution to receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks; over the past 2 weeks Cooks has tallied 12 catches for 223 yards.

WR-Harry Douglas; the Titans have activated wide receiver Harry Douglas from injured reserve. Douglas has been far off the fantasy radar this season, but with Rishard Matthews questionable Douglas could have some sleeper value in deeper leagues.

RB-Ty Montgomery; the Packers running back is doubtful for today and will Aaron Jones still on the shelf, it will be Jamal Williams again with the starting duties. It will be tough sledding today for Williams facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards the past month.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Last week against the Raiders, Gronk was quiet, but did manage a score. This week he has been removed from the team’s injury report and will be one of Brady’s primary options today.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. It should be all-systems-go for Julio today against the Bucs.

WR-John Brown; The Cardinals receiver has been ruled out for Week 12. His absence mean receiver JJ Nelson will likely spend most of his time in the slot today. With the Jags Jalen Ramsey expected to play, it’s likely to be a long day for Nelson.

QB-Jay Cutler; The Dolphins will be without quarterback Jay Cutler, ruled out for Week 12. With Cutler sidelined, Matt Moore will get the road start against the Patriots; Moore is a potential mid-QB2 option this week.

WR-Rishard Matthews; the Titans receiver a late add to the injury report, is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he’s out, Corey Davis could see an expanded role in the passing game.

WR-Marqise Lee; the Jaguars receiver has been removed from the injury report this week. Lee leads the team in receiving this season, but he faces a tough matchup against the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson; he’s a low-value option this week in all formats.

TE-Greg Olsen; the Panthers have activated their tight end and he is expected to play. The word is he’ll only play about half of the offensive snaps, but owners can expect most of those to be on passing downs. He’s still part of the TE1 discussion for Week 12.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Sunday’s Heroes Week 9

With six teams on the bye, there was still plenty of action on last Sunday and more than enough playmakers to carry your weekly lineup to victory. And while the list was full of many household names, there were also quite a few of your the not-the-Usual-Suspects. These are some of the names to keep watch for on Sunday Week 10;

QB-Jay Cutler; the Dolphins signal caller returned from injury and played his best game of his season on Sunday Night. Nothing more than an afterthought all season long, Cutler passed for 311 yards and threw three touchdowns against a weak Raiders secondary.

QB-Jacoy Brissett; the Colts quarterback played strong on Sunday completing 20 of 30 passes while throwing two scores and passing for 308 yards. It was a strong performance for a QB trending in the right direction.

RB-Alvin Kamara; as part of the Saints explosive offense, Kamara was dynamite on Sunday totaling 152 yards (68 ru, 84 rec), with two scores on just 16 touches. Kamara has become a pass receiving weapon this season and a weekly PPR stud.

RB-Corey Clement; the Eagles rookie running back had a big day on Sunday with three touchdowns on 13 touches. Not the usual outcome for Clement and not something owners can come to expect on a regular basis with Ajayi, Blount, and Smallwood positioned ahead of him on the depth chart.

WR-Terrance Williams; it was his first big game of the season on Sunday finishing with 9 catches on 9 targets for 141 yards receiving. Williams has the potential, but

WR-Robert Woods; the Rams receiver help lead his cast a week ago to a big win over the Giants; and big I mean by points. Wood pulled in 4 of 5 targets for 80 receiving yards and his first two scores of the season.

WR-Marqise Lee; quietly the former Trojan has emerged as the team’s No.1 receiver. Last week Lee led the team with 12 targets, 8 receptions, 75 receiving yards, and a touchdowns. On the year he leads the team in targets, catches, and yards. His score last week was his first for the season.

TE-Julius Thomas; the Dolphins tight end finally had his breakout game of the season posting a line of 6/84/1. Most of the year Thomas has been a model of non-production, but he does have 14 receptions on 20 targets over his last four games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.

After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.

I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford

When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?

To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?

Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.

After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.

There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch This Week

Week 4 was an exciting week filled with brilliant performances (Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdowns), more disappointment (DeMarco Murray just 31 yards rushing and Dolphins offense zero touchdowns), lots of big plays (Bilal Powell’s 75-yards scamper for six), and plenty of excitement to catch your attention and have you looking forward to Week 5. Here are the 5 things to watch this Week;

Deshaun versus the Chiefs defense.

The Texans rookie quarterback has been brilliant the last three weeks averaging over 23.0 fantasy points per game (the No.3 fantasy QB during this stretch) and leading the Texans to two wins. In his three starts Watson has accounted for 8 total touchdowns; 6 pass, 2 rush. The Chiefs defense has been pretty good, but a stat to note and something to watch on Sunday, Watson’s mobility and ability to run. Watson leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and the Chiefs have allowed 93, 3rd most to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs will need to be careful when in coverage, because Watson has the ability to pull the ball down and take off.

Jay Cutler and Dolphins offense.

After a dismal week 4 performance it’s going to be real interesting for fantasy owners to see what the Dolphins do this week. With players like Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Jay Ajayi, and Julius Thomas, you expect quarterback Jay Cutler and company to product more than zero points. Well there matchup could not have been dialed up any better with Tennessee coming to town. Last week the Titans defense was toasted for 57 points allowed and 445 yards of offense. Landry, Parker, and Ajayi and fantasy household names, so owners will be watching to see if their players can cash in on a reeling defense.

LeSean McCoy and the Bills on the road this week.

The Bills have been on a roll this season, winning three of their first four games, including wins over the Broncos and Falcons. When you think of the Bills, you immediately think Shady and his running prowess. The funny thing is Shady has been doing it more with his hands, than his legs. His rushing numbers are down at the moment (16th ranked fantasy RB in PPR), but he’s elevated his receiving game this season with 21 receptions through 4 weeks (on a pace for 80+ catches). McCoy’s career high in catches is 78 back in 2010. Shady has a tough matchup against a stingy Bengals defense, but could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield against a defense that has allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing running backs.

Rams-Seahawks matchup will be telling.

This game is going to be a good one to follow this Sunday. The fact it’s a divisional matchup is enough to capture interest, but the direction these two teams have been taking of late is the catalyst that will have many looking in with great interest. The Rams are 3-1 and through 4 weeks, their offense has looked leaps and bounds ahead of last season. On the other side, the Seahawks seem to be in scramble mode pasting and patching things together on the offense side. Poor line play, a struggling running game, and injuries to key skill positions have forced Wilson (the No.3 fantasy QB) to carry the load (41 pass attempts through 4 games). Can Wilson continue to be the offense for Seattle and can the Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his offense prove they are legit. A strong performance on both sides would prove their cases.

Sam Bradford’s return under center.

Quite simply, with Bradford calling the signals in week one, the Vikings offense looked formidable. Since then, the offense and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at times have been a mere shell of themselves. The reports are indicating that Bradford is on track to start Monday night. It’s a divisional matchup with the Bears on the road, so you know it’s not going to be a cakewalk at Soldier Field. The Bears will present a respectable challenge, but with Bradford back under center fantasy owners can feel better about their chances rolling out Diggs, Thielen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 24th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Game-Time

(Quick Takes)

Fantasy owners should slow their roll with running back LeSean McCoy. The Denver defense has been stout versus the run through two games ranked 5th against the run. McCoy could have a long day finding space. Owners are stuck in a quandary, you can’t sit him. He’ll get plenty of touches today, but don’t expect big numbers. He’ll have greater value in PPR today.

All systems go in Steel town today. I know, there’s that talk about Big Ben on the road, but throw that out today. The Bears will be on their heels all day and the Steelers will benefit with good field position; that means open the playbook. Roethlisberger also has his full complement of weapons and today he plays with all his toys. The Killer Bees (Bell, Brown, and Bryant) swarm today in the windy city. I like Martavis Bryant with a couple of long scores today (okay, so that is more hopeful, but I am confident with the offense today).

It’s the second week of action for Jay Cutler and the Dolphins. There was some mini-hype leading into the season about his connection with Devante Parker; today’s a perfect matchup against the Jets to display the football love. I like Parker to connect on several deep balls, including a score today.

Matty Ice and Falcons travel to Detroit today in a nice week 3 road test. Through the team’s first two games, their best weapon has yet to find the end, I expect this change. Wide receiver Julio Jones is an elite athletic talent and has 9 receptions for 174 yards, no touchdowns on just 14 targets. Ryan has not tried to force the ball to Jones, but I’d expect a concerted effort today. Jones will score today and could make multiple trips.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

As we enter the second week of the NFL there are always little things each week to keep an eye for and to watch. With week 2 quickly approaching, here are five things I’ll be looking for on Sunday;

#1 Quarterback Jameis Winston

If you been watching this season’s “Hard Knocks” you’ve been following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston. The 3rd year signal caller has been working hard and looks poised and ready to take the next step this season. The Bucs are at home this week facing the Bears and I would have to say the expectation is to see great things from Winston. This will be a favorable matchup against a secondary that allowed over 300 yards passing to Matt Ryan in week 1. I am watching Winston on Sunday.

#2 Vikings Offensive line (Sam Bradford)

In week one the headlines were all about quarterback Sam Bradford’s numbers and the passing game, but a big key to his success starts and ends with his offensive line. Bradford is a former number one draft pick (2010 draft), so someone believed the kid could play at a high level. I believe we saw some of that last Monday night. Bradford’s past struggles can easily be connected to playing on poor offenses and bad teams. The Vikings looked to be a complete team Monday night and as long as the line can protect Bradford and keep him healthy, we could see a lot more of repeat performances of week 1. I’ll be watching the Vikings line on Sunday against the Steelers.

#3 Adrian Peterson

The Saints running game last Monday looked like a train wreck. It seemed head coach Sean Payton was too much trying to juggle his three backs (Peterson, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara) and was struggling to figure out how to use them. You’ve read it, heard it, and I’ll say here too, Peterson looks out of place in this offense. Unless Payton commits to using Peterson more, 9 plays isn’t going to do anything for fantasy owners. Last week Payton definitely favored the rookie (Kamara), but Ingram stayed just as involved. I’ll be watching Peterson closely on Sunday against the Patriots.

#4 Jay Cutler & Devante Parker

This will be week 1 for the Dolphins and a passing combination that owners and myself will be very interested in seeing; Jay Cutler to Devante Parker. The Dolphins made an offseason scramble to pick up Cutler to replace their injured starter Ryan Tannehille. The move seemed sensible reuniting with (head coach) Adam Gase and to fantasy owners this offers a lot of upside for Parker ( a speedier version of Alshon Jeffery). There are a lot of questions with Cutler, but what he showed in the preseason left owners with some promise. This Sunday my focus will be on the duo and hopefully we see some of their big play potential.

#5 Kirk Cousins (& Redskins offense)

Lastly, the fifth thing for me to watch on Sunday will be Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousin and the offense. Coming out of the preseason, there were some discussions about their struggles and hints that it could take a while for the pieces to fall into place. This was quite evident in week one against the Eagles as Cousins completed only 57 percent of his passes, was sacked four times, and the offense only scored 17 points. What will be most interesting to watch is Kirk Cousins under pressure this week facing a tough front four that will feature the return of Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Cousins’ is going to have to make good decisions and get rid of the ball quickly, chemistry with his receivers will be at a premium and I will be watching.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

It’s time to talk about the big boy receivers, affectionately known as the tight ends. Now normally I might have included the Chiefs Travis Kelce, but we all got a good look at him Thursday; tremendous size and its apparent head coach Andy Reid is going to get him the ball. Kelce could be another Gronk this season. Now here are few names of players that are not like Gronk, but will have fantasy impact.

Fantasy Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph

There’s little conversation going on about Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, at least I am not hearing much, but there should be talk. Last season with first year in Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford, Rudolph turned in a stat line of 83-840-7. I have to be honest, that was the quietest stat line I remember from last season and it was good enough for the No.3 fantasy tight end. The Vikings biggest problem last season was their O-line and lack of running game; two things they addressed in the offseason. Any improvements in these areas will likely reflect with improvement in the pass game and Rudolph’s numbers. He may not have been drafted top five at his position in your draft, but there’s a good chance he finishes there.

Hunter Henry

Yes, the Chargers still have the future Hall-of-fame tight end Antonio Gates, but no doubt tight end Hunter Henry is a name on the rise. In his rookie campaign he started 10 games for the Chargers and finished as the league’s No.11 fantasy tight end (standard leagues). His 2016 numbers were touchdown dependent, but this season he should carve out a larger role in the offense and greatly improve on his 19th ranking in PPR last season. He’s a starting TE1 in 12-team leagues (bottom half) for me this season.

Jack Doyle

With the prospect of quarterback Andrew Luck throwing passes to him again this season, I believe Doyle can pick up right where he left off in 2016. A season ago Doyle finished as the No.13 fantasy tight end (PPR) with 59 receptions, 584 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. Doyle is probably going to be slow out of the gate with Luck sidelined the first couple of weeks, but he could be a strong sneaky play in the second half of the season. He’s got great fantasy value coming late off the draft boards.

Julius Thomas

After two productive seasons in Denver, the Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas has not been very fantasy relevant since; last season in standard leagues he was the 29th ranked fantasy tight end. Thomas arrived in Miami this offseason, enter head coach Adam Gase (Thomas’ old OC in Denver) and new quarterback Jay Cutler. Thomas is a big body tight end the team believes could finish with double figure touchdowns; add the Gase-Cutler factor. In 2015 when these two (Cutler & Gaes) were paired in Chicago, Cutler targeted his tight ends 127 times, for 88 receptions, and 8 touchdowns. Thomas is a sleeper tight end this season, with potential huge upside if he stays healthy!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st 2017

Thursday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Draft day is winding down as we inch closer to kickoff, just a little under a week away. Even with only one weekend left before the season starts, there are plenty of drafts to be had and to be dominated.

I’m not saying any of these guys will put you over the top, but here are a few players that I believe are going to ball hard this season.

There’s been a lot of changes in Philly this off-season, but one staple 2nd year quarterback Carson Wentz will have to rely on is tight end Zach Ertz. Last season Ertz turned in a line of 78-816-4 on 106 targets, good enough for the No. 6 fantasy tight end in PPR. The talk around the water cooler is Ertz should be even more involved in the passing game seeing an even larger share of targets this season. With good enough numbers for the number six spot last season, Ertz  has an ADP of 7.06 (the No. 8 tight end) according to FFC, making him a solid value around the middle of the 7th or early 8th round.

In Minnesota there’s not been a lot of talk, or at least I am not hearing a lot about wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Vikings 3rd year receiver has been on the rise since he arrived in 2015 with his targets, receptions, and yards receiving increasing each season. Last season he posted an 84-903-3 line on 112 targets and could easily see a bump in volume and better numbers. Last season Diggs finished as the league’s No. 30 fantasy receiver in PPR and is currently being drafted as the No. 25 fantasy receiver (according to FFC); he's going off the board around players like Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry. He’s in pretty good company, but I like Diggs potential especially returning this season with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. I am taking Diggs ahead of the others mentioned here.

Plodding along, another receiver who has been hyped in the past, so fantasy owners have to ask is there more smoke this season or do we actually have a fire? In the case of Dolphins wide receiver Devante Parker, it could finally be fire we see this season with the arrival of quarterback Jay Cutler. Parker is a big target and it’s no secret that Cutler likes those big targets downfield. The Dolphins big wideout is going to be Cutler’s primary downfield target which is why I love Parker at his current ADP (5.06 according to FFC), the No. 27 fantasy receiver off the board. He’s being drafted as a high-WR3 who easily has a high-end WR2 upside in PPR formats (and a tick higher in standard). I am high on this kid.

Deep Sleeper

Now this one may be nothing more than a dart throw and best in Best Ball drafts or deeper leagues, but there’s something to be said about Niners wide receiver Marquise Goodwin. It’s not a large sample size, but Goodwin and quarterback Brian Hoyer have shown some nice preseason chemistry. Goodwin has been targeted 8 times this preseason with a line of 5-104-1. I don’t see him as a heavy volume guy, more of a big play guy. In 2016 he caught 29 balls for 431 yards receiving and three touchdowns, good enough for 14.9 per catch. His career high in touchdowns is the three he posted last season, but I can easily see him surpassing that total this season, maybe double. Again, I see him as a late round flier in deep leagues or or a sneaky Best ball play, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as a possible streaming option through the byes.

IDP Notes

For those of you that enjoy fantasy football as much as I do, there is also the IDP (Individual Defensive Players) format to enjoy. And yes plenty to talk about there with the season fast approaching.

Dynamic Duo

With 2nd year player Joey Bosa showing so much promise last season (his fantasy stock is rising fast) finishing with 10.5 sacks, he’ll anchor one side of the Chargers defense with teammate Melvin Ingram (8.0 sacks last season) on the other side. Last season Bosa closed out his 2016 campaign with at least a half sack in 6 straight games. He has the look of a game-changer as an elite pass-rusher and there’s no reason fantasy owners shouldn’t expect to see him take another step forward in 2017. He should go early in IDP drafts, first rounder in IDP only drafts.

On the other side, defensive lineman Melvin Ingram is another stud pass rusher coming off a solid campaign last season. Ingram is entering his 6th season, having turned in 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons. His production has been steady since 2015 and with the arrival of Bosa, 2017 looks to be another solid year for Ingram. Like Bosa, he’s an early IDP selection; in IDP only leagues he’s a mid-to-low 2nd rounder in my opinion.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega