FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 7 TE Rankings

As no surprise, once again Gronk leads the way for tight ends in my rankings this week with a marquee matchup on Sunday night against the Falcons, but another heavy favorite in my opinion is Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham. The lack of a stable running game may force the Seahawks with Graham to take advantage of the Giants struggles with opposing tight ends.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Zach Ertz

3. Jimmy Graham

4. Evan Engram

5. Hunter Henry

6. Delanie Walker

7. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

8. Kyle Rudolph

9. Jordan Reed

10. George Kittle

11. Cameron Brate

12. Jason Witten

13. Austin Hooper

14. Jack Doyle

15. Zach Miller

16. Benjamin Watson

17. Tyler Kroft

18. Martellus Bennett

19. Ed Dickson

20. Vernon Davis

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 9th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

(Week 5)

My Takes



Quarterback Sam Bradford; it's sounding very much like Sam will go tonight against the Bears. The matchup is never favorable in the friendly confines of Soldier Field and last season Bradford was ineffective in a 20-10 loss. But that was about a year ago and an old Bradford. The new Bradford brings with him some great weapons and an even greater understanding of the offense. It's not going to be a breakout performance, but rather a solid one for Sam returning from injury. Feel confident if you have to ride Sam tonight, he's a nice bye week fill.

Running backs Latavius Murray & Jerrick McKinnon; the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook hurts, but with Bradford back under center the combination of Murray and McKinnon should fill just fine. Murray is expected to log the majority of carries and if he's close to 100 percent he should be able to provide some of the in-between the tackle presence the running game was missing last season; he's a fade option at running back this week. McKinnon will likely play his regular 3rd down pass catching role, but he's not fantasy worthy tonight.

Wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen; these two are the Vikings wonder twins. Both run great routes, both have great hands, and with Bradford under center, both are worth starting. Also, only a mother can tell these two apart. Unfortunately for the Bears secondary (ranked 4th in the NFL), they don't have any mom's playing safety, so it'll be a long night for them. Diggs and Thilen should both be started.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph; with his starting quarterback returning this week, Rudolph is back in play. Now fantasy owners will need to hold their water as he's only a backend TE1 this week. The Bears are pretty good against the tight end spot, but I like Rudolph as a great candidate for a red zone score.

Quarterback Mitchell Turbisky; the Bears roll out the Trubisky era tonight, but don't expect a welcoming reception from the Vikings defense tonight. It's likely going to be a long night for the rookie, but more importantly for the Bears among the inevitable mistakes he'll make, they are hoping to see a spark on the offensive side of the ball. Trubisky is not worth starting or owning at this time, but tonight it will be interesting to see what he can do.

Running backs Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen; unfortunately for Thunder and lightning and fantasy owners, the weather's been pretty calm the past couple of weeks and the forecast for tonight does not look stormy. The Vikings are ranked 2nd versus the run, so fantasy owners should temper their expectations. The only good thing to count on, with a rookie quarterback you will see a lot of run and a lot of short passes. Despite the terrible matchup, expect volume for both Howard and Cohen; they'll both be serviceable tonight.

Wide receiver Kendall Wright; it's another one of those cases of Trubisky has to throw the ball to somebody. Wright has emerged as the likely go-to candidate leading the team with 14 receptions for 154 yards, and a touchdown. It's not a promising matchup tonight, especially with the expected growing pains with a rookie quarterback making his first start. If you are desperate, Wright will be a tough start tonight.

Tight end Zach Miller; with a rookie quarterback under the center the expectation is the tight end becomes his security blanket. That is likely the rule to follow here to tonight. Miller (30th ranked TE in PPR) has only 13 grabs this season, but may get caught up in a lot of check downs and short routes to keep his quarterback clean. What this likely means for Miller is a busy night for few yards, but he could salvage things with the potential for a red zone grab; but keep in mind Miller has zero touchdowns in four games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.

After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.

I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford

When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?

To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?

Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.

After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.

There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

It’s time to talk about the big boy receivers, affectionately known as the tight ends. Now normally I might have included the Chiefs Travis Kelce, but we all got a good look at him Thursday; tremendous size and its apparent head coach Andy Reid is going to get him the ball. Kelce could be another Gronk this season. Now here are few names of players that are not like Gronk, but will have fantasy impact.

Fantasy Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph

There’s little conversation going on about Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, at least I am not hearing much, but there should be talk. Last season with first year in Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford, Rudolph turned in a stat line of 83-840-7. I have to be honest, that was the quietest stat line I remember from last season and it was good enough for the No.3 fantasy tight end. The Vikings biggest problem last season was their O-line and lack of running game; two things they addressed in the offseason. Any improvements in these areas will likely reflect with improvement in the pass game and Rudolph’s numbers. He may not have been drafted top five at his position in your draft, but there’s a good chance he finishes there.

Hunter Henry

Yes, the Chargers still have the future Hall-of-fame tight end Antonio Gates, but no doubt tight end Hunter Henry is a name on the rise. In his rookie campaign he started 10 games for the Chargers and finished as the league’s No.11 fantasy tight end (standard leagues). His 2016 numbers were touchdown dependent, but this season he should carve out a larger role in the offense and greatly improve on his 19th ranking in PPR last season. He’s a starting TE1 in 12-team leagues (bottom half) for me this season.

Jack Doyle

With the prospect of quarterback Andrew Luck throwing passes to him again this season, I believe Doyle can pick up right where he left off in 2016. A season ago Doyle finished as the No.13 fantasy tight end (PPR) with 59 receptions, 584 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. Doyle is probably going to be slow out of the gate with Luck sidelined the first couple of weeks, but he could be a strong sneaky play in the second half of the season. He’s got great fantasy value coming late off the draft boards.

Julius Thomas

After two productive seasons in Denver, the Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas has not been very fantasy relevant since; last season in standard leagues he was the 29th ranked fantasy tight end. Thomas arrived in Miami this offseason, enter head coach Adam Gase (Thomas’ old OC in Denver) and new quarterback Jay Cutler. Thomas is a big body tight end the team believes could finish with double figure touchdowns; add the Gase-Cutler factor. In 2015 when these two (Cutler & Gaes) were paired in Chicago, Cutler targeted his tight ends 127 times, for 88 receptions, and 8 touchdowns. Thomas is a sleeper tight end this season, with potential huge upside if he stays healthy!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 23rd, 2016
Friday Night Edition

Week 16 Four Horsemen

It’s championship week and no time to waiver. Fantasy owners must stick to their guns, see the journey through, and let the chips fall where they may. With that said, stud or no, savory matchup or no, these are four studs fantasy owners will be able to ride to the championship promise land.

Quarterback
Saints quarterback Drew Brees has about an average matchup this week taking on the Buccaneers at home, but when it’s home cooking advantage Brees. The Saints quarterback hit a mini slump back their throwing a total of 6 picks in back-to-back games, but he bounced back last week on the road with 4 touchdowns. In his previous 7 home games Brees has thrown 19 touchdowns and averaged 353 yards passing. He may have hit a pot hole two weeks, but this gun slinger will be blazing on Saturday. My prediction; 25 of 36 for 326 yards and three touchdowns!

Running Back
The Cardinals running back David Johnson (ranked No. 1 fantasy running back) has been nothing less than a fantasy beast this season and in his last matchup against the Seahawks (Saturday’s opponent) he was a monster. In week 7 versus Seattle, Johnson tallied 41 touches for 171 total yards. Based on sheer volume alone, fantasy owners can count on Johnson providing another week of double-digit fantasy points. My Prediction; 21 carries, 85 yards rushing, 6 receptions 46 yards receiving, one touchdown.

Wide Receiver
The Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton was quiet last week against the Vikings, but in the previous two weeks he was coming on strong with back-to-back 9 reception and 100 yard-plus performances. Over the last three weeks Hilton is averaging 10 targets per game. The Raiders are average versus wide receivers and have allowed the 12th most receiving yards this season. Hilton is healthy and a playmaker. With the Colts in a heated race for the division, fantasy owners can expect Hilton to be very much in the mix on Saturday. My prediction; 6 reception (8 targets), 105 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

Tight End
An unlikely fantasy scoring source that could surprise this week is Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph. In his last four games Rudolph is averaging 10 targets per game turning them into 27 receptions for 266 yards and a touchdown. In his last matchup against the Packers (this weekend’s opponent) Rudolph did find the end zone. Fantasy owners can count on Rudolph seeng plenty of opportunities this week against a defense that has allowed the 7th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. My prediction; 5 receptions (on 8 targets) for 65 yards and a touchdown.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega