FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 30th 2017

Monday Morning Edition

Monday Night Takes
(Week 8)

It’s a divisional matchup, a meeting of two potential playoff contenders, and as always a heated AFC West rivalry when the Broncos and the Chiefs clash. Tonight’s meeting shouldn’t disappoint fantasy owners with the Chiefs Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt playing host to the Broncos Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas, and Jamaal Charles.

This could be a tale of two cities or two teams. This season the Chiefs offense (ranked 2nd in total yards, 3rd in scoring) has been off the charts with Smith having an MVP-like season passing the ball, and the emergence of rookie running back Kareem Hunt; he’s been sensational out of the gate.

On the other side, it’s been a different story for Siemian and the Broncos (ranked 15th total yards and 24 in scoring). The Broncos defense has been good this season, but against a team like the Chiefs, they’ll need some help from the offense in this one.

My Takes.

QB-Alex Smith; the Chiefs signal caller has been good this season, but an improved pass rush with the return of Broncos linebacker Shane Ray could slow his roll on Monday night. Fantasy owners looking for a big game from Smith should temper their expectations.

RB-Kareem Hunt; as good as this kid has been this season, it’s hard to imagine any team shutting him down. He was held in check two weeks ago by the Steelers with just 21 rushing yards, but he still managed 89 receiving. The Broncos could keep him bottled up most of the night, but with his volume of touches he should still see double-digit fantasy points.

WR-Demarcus Robinson; it’s going to be tough night for the Chiefs passing game, but with a lot of focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (who will both get their usual opportunities), I like Robinson flying under the radar. He won’t be in for a big night, but he may be able to match his season highs in receptions and yards.

TE-Travis Kelce; if the Broncos defense has a weakness it appears to be covering opposing tight ends. Kelce should be heavily involved tonight and could have a big night. With the defenses concerns focused on stopping Smith and Hunt in the backfield, Kelce is a safe play for owners.

QB-Trevor Siemian; the Broncos passer has not been a fantasy option in weeks and with a tough road matchup (in Arrowhead) on Monday night, I’m not expecting Trevor to summon his inner Peyton. He could have a decent night against a struggling Chiefs secondary, but he’s still not a fantasy option in this matchup.

RB-Jamaal Charles; the Broncos are likely to stick with their ineffective game script of going with CJ Anderson (so he’s the much safer play tonight) early and sprinkling in Charles at times. Being that this is Charles’ old team, the revenge factor does come up. If Charles can break loose for a couple of big plays, this could open up more snaps and touches. Charles has been the more explosive and efficient option this season, the question is will head coach Vance Joseph take a longer look at his speedy back tonight. Charles is too risky for redraft lineups, but could be a flier option in DFS.

WR-Demaryius Thomas; it all comes down to his quarterback, how well DT plays or produces. The offense has been woeful, but thankfully they get a struggling secondary tonight. The bad thing is the game is on the road in Arrowhead where emotions will run high and that could be enough to change things.Regardless of the success or lack of, DT should see enough targets to provide his usual safe (in PPR) 5 for 55.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 9th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

(Week 5)

My Takes



Quarterback Sam Bradford; it's sounding very much like Sam will go tonight against the Bears. The matchup is never favorable in the friendly confines of Soldier Field and last season Bradford was ineffective in a 20-10 loss. But that was about a year ago and an old Bradford. The new Bradford brings with him some great weapons and an even greater understanding of the offense. It's not going to be a breakout performance, but rather a solid one for Sam returning from injury. Feel confident if you have to ride Sam tonight, he's a nice bye week fill.

Running backs Latavius Murray & Jerrick McKinnon; the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook hurts, but with Bradford back under center the combination of Murray and McKinnon should fill just fine. Murray is expected to log the majority of carries and if he's close to 100 percent he should be able to provide some of the in-between the tackle presence the running game was missing last season; he's a fade option at running back this week. McKinnon will likely play his regular 3rd down pass catching role, but he's not fantasy worthy tonight.

Wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen; these two are the Vikings wonder twins. Both run great routes, both have great hands, and with Bradford under center, both are worth starting. Also, only a mother can tell these two apart. Unfortunately for the Bears secondary (ranked 4th in the NFL), they don't have any mom's playing safety, so it'll be a long night for them. Diggs and Thilen should both be started.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph; with his starting quarterback returning this week, Rudolph is back in play. Now fantasy owners will need to hold their water as he's only a backend TE1 this week. The Bears are pretty good against the tight end spot, but I like Rudolph as a great candidate for a red zone score.

Quarterback Mitchell Turbisky; the Bears roll out the Trubisky era tonight, but don't expect a welcoming reception from the Vikings defense tonight. It's likely going to be a long night for the rookie, but more importantly for the Bears among the inevitable mistakes he'll make, they are hoping to see a spark on the offensive side of the ball. Trubisky is not worth starting or owning at this time, but tonight it will be interesting to see what he can do.

Running backs Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen; unfortunately for Thunder and lightning and fantasy owners, the weather's been pretty calm the past couple of weeks and the forecast for tonight does not look stormy. The Vikings are ranked 2nd versus the run, so fantasy owners should temper their expectations. The only good thing to count on, with a rookie quarterback you will see a lot of run and a lot of short passes. Despite the terrible matchup, expect volume for both Howard and Cohen; they'll both be serviceable tonight.

Wide receiver Kendall Wright; it's another one of those cases of Trubisky has to throw the ball to somebody. Wright has emerged as the likely go-to candidate leading the team with 14 receptions for 154 yards, and a touchdown. It's not a promising matchup tonight, especially with the expected growing pains with a rookie quarterback making his first start. If you are desperate, Wright will be a tough start tonight.

Tight end Zach Miller; with a rookie quarterback under the center the expectation is the tight end becomes his security blanket. That is likely the rule to follow here to tonight. Miller (30th ranked TE in PPR) has only 13 grabs this season, but may get caught up in a lot of check downs and short routes to keep his quarterback clean. What this likely means for Miller is a busy night for few yards, but he could salvage things with the potential for a red zone grab; but keep in mind Miller has zero touchdowns in four games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

After a wild weekend with some big surprises, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Prime-Time spectacle with the Redskins traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere tonight, as it typically is at Arrowhead Stadium; and Monday night will surely amplify the excitement.

My Takes

Quarterback Kirk Cousins; the Redskins signal caller finally got things going in week 3 against the Raiders. It was a strong showing and solid performance by Cousins that helped lead the Redskins. Tonight he’ll be away from the comfy confines of home and take his show on the road into hostile territory. The Chiefs defense has held up pretty tough this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but they can be had; in week 2 the Chiefs did allow the second most fantasy points (24.8) to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins played great last week and will try to bring the same momentum into tonight, but road games are always tough. I’d expect Cousins to hang in there, but a big game is likely not on the slate; more like 16-18 fantasy points would be in line.

Running backs Chris Thompson & Samaje Perine; the main production tonight will likely come from the more versatile back of the two, Chris Thompson. Samaje (if Rob Kelley is out) is going to see a lot of the 1st and 2nd down work, but Thompson will be sprinkled in all facets and see heavy use in the passing game. Samaje is likely to find little running room against the Chiefs No.7 ranked run defense, owners may want to sit him tonight. Thompson on the other hand has been on fire and while many may believe it’s time for the flames to fan, I like him in the flex tonight. Thompson should see about a half dozen carries or so and get work 7-9 targets in the pass game.

Wide receivers Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, & Jamison Crowder; I’ll run through these real quick; still waiting on Terrelle Pryor to arrive in 2017 and not expecting to see much tonight against Marcus Peters. Crowder is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays while he is a safe play currently his ceiling seems limited; averaging just 6.0 targets the first three weeks. Cousins does spread the ball around pretty good, but the sleeper tonight to watch is wide receiver Josh Doctson. Last week he only had 2 targets, but did connect on a long shot for 52 yards. As time passes, we may see him get more involved.

Tight ends Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis; Always the risk it seems, the play at tight end here is Reed (if he’s healthy). Reed has been a non-factor the first three weeks playing in 2 games. His numbers are not what we expect from a TE1, hyped as he was in the preseason. He’ll be looking to get things going tonight against the Chiefs who struggle with the TE spot. If Reed is out, insert Davis who fared well in week 3 with 5 grabs for 58 yards and a score.

Quarterback Alex Smith; the Chiefs quarterback had a modest week 3 and with the Redskins coming to town, that’s about what I’d normally expect for tonight. You’re probably not starting Smith tonight in smaller redraft leagues, maybe two QB leagues only. The Chiefs will lean on the run and short passing game, but will ask Smith to take a few big shots downfield. Smith has been good this season going downfield more often, so don’t be surprised if totals a bunch of yards, to compliment a few scores.

Running back Kareem Hunt & Charcandrick West; the key for the Chiefs is in the ground game or at least with their ball carrier, Kareem Hunt. Whether they have success running the ball or not, they will work to get the ball in the hands of Hunt. So far through three weeks Hunt has been electric, he’s in line for another 18-22 touches tonight. He’s my No.1 fantasy RB this week. West is nothing more than a handcuff. As long as Hunt is healthy, West won’t see enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, & Albert Wilson; Head Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up so much, it’s really hard to gauge where his receivers are. About the only relevant receiver in the Chiefs passing game is Hill. Niether Wilson or Conley can be trusted, only Hill with 22 targets through the first 3 weeks is startable. Tonight’s going to be a tough matchup, but count on Reid to move Hill around and get him the ball in space; despite the matchup, he’s my No. 14 fantasy WR.

Tight end Travis Kelce; Last week Kelce was nearly shut out. Fantasy owners don’t panic, last week was just an anomaly. Reid and his staff will make sure Kelce is involved tonight; i’d expect a bounce back game against the Redskins defense that struggles against tight ends. Kelce is my No.2 fantasy TE this week.

Tonight matchup with the undefeated Chiefs (3-0) and the (2-1) Redskins has the appearance of a great matchup and could be a barn-burner as likely as anything else. Either way, we are in for a good one with plenty of scoring and lots of fantasy implications. Are you ready for some Monday Night Football!

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

It’s time for some Monday night football and tonight’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals will have plenty of fantasy implications with players like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jason Witten.

We’ve seen a lot of improved play this weekend on the offensive side of the ball and tonight I’d expect to see the trend continue. Players like JJ Nelson, Carson Palmer, and Chris Johnson may arrive tonight on the big stage.

Quarterback Dak Prescott; it was tough sledding for the young quarterback last, but tonight he’ll get back to his usual form taking care of the ball and making good decisions. He’s a mid-QB2 this week and is in line to tally his normal 16-20 fantasy points against a Card’s defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back Ezekiel Elliott; the Cards defense has been pretty solid through two weeks against the run, but they have yet to face any running backs of Elliott’s caliber. Elliott should see his normal workload tonight as this matchup should remain close throughout. He won’t run wild tonight, but his production should be worthy of starting as your RB1.

Wide Receiver Dez Bryant; some speculate a tough matchup for the Cowboys receiver this week. Bryant is a big physical receiver that has the trust of his quarterback; 25 targets through 2 games. Tonight Bryant will matchup with a secondary that was torched back in week one by the Lions; Cards surrendered 18 receptions for 245 yards and three scores. Bryant has only secured 9 passes this season for 102 yards and a touchdown; he’ll make a run at those numbers tonight.

Tight End Jason Witten; the Cowboys veteran tight end has been his quarterback’s security blanket (17 of 22 receptions to targets) through the first two weeks of the season (keeping Witten very relevant in fantasy). He’ll continue to be his go to tonight against the Cardinals and is easily a TE1.

Quarterback Carson Palmer; the Cardinals quarterback has had his struggles in this early season, perhaps is just rust from lack of playing time and practice during training camp and preseason. Some will argue his age has caught up to him, but I think we could see the same weekend trend. I don’t think you are starting Palmer this week, but I think he has a decent outing (good for his receivers) against a secondary that Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian shredded pretty good last week.

Running Back Chris Johnson; the Cardinal’s newest Johnson had few carries last week, but didn’t look bad. He’s sure to get a more sustained look tonight (provided Palmer doesn’t throw this one to the other side early). Johnson will be interesting to watch tonight; not looking for a huge game from him, but rather his usage. If he runs well and still has a little of that great speed, he could become a viable flex option in the short future.

Wide Receiver JJ Nelson; the Cardinals number three receiver in the absence of John Brown (and disappearance of Fitz) has emerged as their best receiver and big play threat. But we saw some of this last season, so we should not be surprised. What has raised eye-brows is his sudden rise in fantasy land. Nelson is the current No.27 fantasy receiver in PPR (No.12 standard) entering tonight’s contest. With a current stat line of 10/163/2, if he’s healthy to go, expect his ranking to rise inside the Top-20 and Top-10 respectively.

Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald; the 14 year veteran leads the Cards receivers with 19 targets through two games this season, it just hasn’t translated into any kind of production fantasy owners can trust. He’s typically regarded as a borderline WR/WR3, but given his current state coming off a 3-catch 21-yard performance, owners may want to tap the brakes a bit when it comes to Fitz. He may be down in PPR leagues this week, but he should still hold some value as a flex in standard leagues as a viable red-zone threat

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega