Showing posts with label Ezekiel Elliott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ezekiel Elliott. Show all posts

Saturday, September 28, 2019

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late night Edition
September 27th 2019






Week 3 Fantasy Reactions & Notes

Week 4 has already started with the Thursday night game in the books, but I just wanted to reflect back on Week 3 and share some of my notes and reactions from Sunday.




  • How does Mariota throw for 300?
  • Bab-ee Chark, do-do, do, do-do-do!
  • Dede (9 targets) still getting play.
  • Courtland suddenly coming of age, he’s a player.
  • Lindsay breakouts in week 3.
  • Rolls Royce, flexing PPR appeal.
  • MVS making noise in Week 3.
  • Jets offense has no propulsion, needs a booster (Darnold)
  • It’s Dorsett and Burkhead taking the lead in Pats O
  • Mixon finally comes to life
  • John Ross disappoints with 2 catches
  • Boyd leads the way with 11 targets.
  • Who is Auden Tate?
  • It’s the Frank Gore show in Buffalo.
  • Cole Beasley is the safety net; 10 targets
  • A new emerging fantasy star; Preston Williams, 23 targets in 2019
  • Zeke just pounds the ground
  • Cooper just scores touchdowns; adds 2 more in week 3
  • Return of the Mack, dances on.
  • Jacoby Brissett impressive with 300 and the win
  • It’s Hooper and Jones in week 3, the next dynamic duo?
  • Oh Calvin, what happened? (one target)
  • Lamar is fantasy gold!
  • It’s Showtime with Pat Mahomes!
  • Ingram for the Tri-fecta and a cool hundy!
  • Andrews is quiet, but still sees 7 targets.
  • Hollywood and Jackson not N’Sync.
  • Travis is tight on Sunday with 7 grabs on 8 targets
  • Shady totals 90 yards and two scores.
  • Wala, Wala, Waller going off in Week 3.
  • Not digging Diggs 3 targets.
  • Another big Sunday for Cook; 143 total yards
  • Production down, but Kerryon logs 21 touches in week  3
  • Ronald Jones with 15 touches and 121 yards!
  • Jameis Winston stock on the rise after 380 yards passing and 3 Tds
  • Daniel Jones accounts for four scores; 2 pass, 2 rush
  • Sterling Shepard shows up in week 3; 7-100-1
  • In New Orleans it’s just Kamara and Thomas.
  • Russell Wilson is huge in week 3 with 400 yards passing and 4 scores


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega



Saturday, September 21, 2019

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019








Week 3: Four Horsemen


The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega


FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th 2019








Friday Fantasy Fixx


Week 3 JMO Notes:

After a tough matchup against the Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey in week 2, the Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (currently WR15, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) is hoping to put his 5 (catches) for 40 (yards receiving) in the past. This week he’ll look to bounce back against a Chargers defense that has allowed a 79% completion success rate to wide receivers. Hopkins is too good to struggle for two weeks in a row, expect a bounce back game on Sunday.

The Viking running back Dalvin Cook (currently RB2, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) has been a fantasy stud through two games this season. Cook is averaging 23 touches and 311 yards of offense per game with three rushing touchdowns. With the Raiders coming to town on Sunday, fantasy owners can expect more of the same.

The Bengals defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards allowed to running backs (308 rushing yards) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (3 rushing touchdowns). In two games, the Bills running back Frank Gore has found the fountain of youth, leading the club with 30 carries. This week he looks like he’s got a great chance to improve his 2.9 yards per carry average; start him.

Fantasy Five

Stud - The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston played well last week on the road against the Panthers, in week 3 he gets home cooking against the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and over 325 yards passing yards per game. Just reading the tea leaves on this one, the Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd will take his shot against the Bills secondary that through two games has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Through two games Boyd leads the team with 21 targets and 18 receptions and will pad those numbers on Sunday. An easy call here with the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Facing the Dolphins defense (ranked 31st against the run) this week, it should be all Zeke, all day.
Dud - The Chiefs will be without starting running back Damien Williams, but running back LeSean McCoy is a bit banged up and taking on the league’s number run defense. It could be a long or short day for Shady.
Boom - The Packers defense has been snake bit by running backs through two weeks, on the ground (6.0 yard per carry allowed-and in the air (18 receptions allowed-most allowed). This week, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (13 targets this season), the team’s primary pass receiving back should see plenty of opportunities and could finally find the end zone. After a breakout week two, Niners running back Raheem Mostert could be making a case for himself to stay on the field, even after Tevin Coleman heals. Mostert currently ranks as RB17 in fantasy (PPR scoring) and his matchup against the Steelers (8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs) this week, could yield more success.
Bust - The Raiders tight end Darren Waller (TE8 in fantasy) will face a stout Vikings defense on the road this week; he could see his numbers cool on Sunday. The Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (QB6 in fantasy this season) has had a bit of a hot hand, but it could get cold fast on Monday night against the Bears' defense (7 sacks this season).
Sleeper - With no Tre’Quan Smith and no Drew Brees, the check down on Sunday could feature the Saints tight end Jared Cook who faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Bears running back Tarik Cohen was targeted 10 times in week one and 15 for the season. He could see more work in the slot against a leaky Redskins secondary on Monday night. The Broncos running back Royce Freeman (RB27) has been seeing enough work this season to be not only fantasy relevant, but flex worthy. He should get plenty of touches on Sunday against the Packers and could find pay dirt for the first time in 2019.


Recap Week 2
Stud - The Ravens Lamar Jackson (QB2) and Mark Andrews (TE1) came through with solid week 2 performances, but the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR54) was held in check, all PPR scoring.
Dud - The Rams tight ends finished Week 2 as TE23 and TE30, none worth starting or playing consideration. The Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was basically a no-show exiting early in week 2 with an injury and a donut for a stat line. The Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay finished the week as RB26, not terrible especially considering the matchup against the Bears.
Boom - The Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was WR8 in week 2, the Bills wideout John Brown was WR33 (flex play territory), and the Seahawks rookie receiver DK Metcalf was WR29 (flex play), again all PPR scoring.
Bust - The Bills veteran running back Frank Gore was an effective RB11 in week 2, while the Titans running back Dion Lewis (RB64) was just forgettable. 
Sleeper - the Niners running back Raheem Mostert was RB3 with a huge day, while the Steelers tight end Vance McDonald (TE3) was also big with a pair of scores. The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (QB27) was awful last week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega


Friday, August 23, 2019

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Night Edition
August 23rd, 2019







Bad Boys Running Wild

The Ones!
With the peak of the Fantasy draft season upon us (a lot of fantasy drafts expected this weekend and next), it’s time to tighten up your rankings and close in on those fantasy picks that are going to bring home the hardware.


Out of the gate, this of course is not headline news, the top pick for me is a no-brainer; Saquan Barkley (MR#RB1). Last season the Giants runner totaled 352 touches (261 carries, 91 receptions), playing in all 16 games of his rookie campaign. There is no reason to think he won’t see similar numbers once again and with his nose for the big play, he’s a solid first pick.


Running backs Christian McCaffrey (MR#RB2) and Alvin Kamara (MR#RB3) offer similar upside, but both are not quite the workhorse as is Barkley.


It’s no secret in Cleveland, running back Nick Chubb (MR#RB5)is expected to be the man to open the season. He has a great opportunity to be a fantasy star and with the upgraded passing game, he should be. Last season Chubb finished 10th in NFL rushing and just missed 1,000 yard by four.


It may be a surprise to see Le’Veon Bell (MR#RB7) as high as I have him, but unlike many other Fantasy experts, I believe Bell will be fine in New york. You don’t pay top dollars for a high-performance car to park it in the garage. I happen to believe Bell is going to see a large volume of work and will be highly productive.


I have the Lions star runner Kerryon Johnson (MR#RB10) in my top 10, because I am drinking the Kool-aid. His rookie season was cut short due to injury (knee), but Johnson is healthy in 2019 and expected to open the season as the Lions lead-back. KJ is a versatile back (32 receptions in 2018) and from weeks 7 to week 11, he averaged 17.4 touches per game. He has the potential for a heavier workload and finishing inside the Fantasy Top 10 this season.


1.Saquon Barkley
2.C. McCaffrey
3.Alvin Kamara
4.David Johnson
5.Nick Chubb
6.Joe Mixon
7.LeVeon Bell
8.Dalvin Cook
9.Todd Gurley
10.Kerryon Johnson
11.Damien Williams
12.Devonta Freeman


The Next 12
Just a couple of quick notables for the second 12 of my rankings list; I am believing the hype surrounding Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs (MR#RB14). He could be a 20-touch per game back in Head Coach John Gruden’s offense.


I dropped Ezekiel Elliot (MR#RB15) outside my top 12, due to his holdout and the risk he could miss some games. Should he get signed, he catapults up the charts to number 5. Drafting him as a RB1 or RB2 is basically based on how confident you are he’ll be back in Dallas and when.


I have Leonard Fournette (MR#RB17) a little low at 17, but if he stays healthy this season he could easily finish in the top 10. Last season Fournette played in 8 games, finishing as the No.40 RB in fantasy PPR scoring, as compared to his rookie season where he played in 13 games and finished 9th.


Although he may be considered a little undersized, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (MR#RB24) proved he is more than capable in an NFL backfield. The former Buffalo out of the University of Colorado finished his rookie campaign as the 13th RB in fantasy PPR scoring. He makes my board as a low-end RB2, but I honestly feel he could be a little low.


13.James Conner
14.Josh Jacobs
15.Ezekiel Elliott
16.Aaron Jones
17.L. Fournette
18.Marlon Mack
19.Melvin Gordon
20.Derrick Henry
21.Mark Ingram
22.Tevin Coleman
23.Chris Carson
24.Phillip Lindsay


That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega




Sunday, August 11, 2019

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition
August 11th, 2019






Fantasy Draft 2019: 
Player Market Exchange is Open


I’ve not usually done this in years past, although heading into every fantasy football season, I am always looking at players like Stocks and Commodities; some you want to buy others you avoid or sell on. Does this sound familiar? It probably does, that’s because it does mirror a lot of those like/dislikes columns you read from the fantasy experts that are put out every pre-season. I just thought this season, I’d join the party and have a little fun with it myself.

So what are typical “Buys” and “Sells?” 

The best I can explain, for the “Buys”, these are not just the players I like, but rather these are players I do like and that I am seeing I can draft where I’d like to take them (currently in mock drafts) and where I am projecting I will take (select) them. 

The sells are not necessarily players I don’t like, to the contrary, I like quite a few of them a lot, very much. But where many of these (sell) players are going in many of the mock drafts I am doing and where they are slotted in current ADP, I don’t like. I am not expecting to draft them there, nor am I likely to reach for them earlier. This season I believe there is enough depth and too much value available in the first 10-12 rounds of your fantasy draft to reach.

So here is a quick list of some of my buys (the players that should be available in your drafts at spots where you can still get value taking them).…

These are two of my favorites, Texans Quarterback Deshaun Watson (current ADP of 6.01 per FFC) and Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (current ADP of 10.5 per FFC). I am very high (top 3 fantasy QB this season) on Watson this season and have found I can grab him around the 5th and early 6th round. I believe Winston will be a mid to top five, QB1 this season and he has been going as late as the 10th-12th rounds.

Another player to Buy that I am excited about this season is Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (current ADP of 4.11 per FFC). His current ADP is about right in my opinion and this talented runner figures prominently in the Broncos offense; he’s going to see more than enough opportunity to finish as a top 20 fantasy running back.

Additional 2019 Buys:
QB, Aaron Rodgers; this will be a big year for A-rod.
QB, Matt Ryan; he returns to the MVP conversation.
RB, Tevin Coleman; no news here. No Mckinnon, he’s on the rise.
RB, Derrius Guice; he’s healthy and love him after the 7th.
WR, Chris Godwin; if he’s my number one WR, I’m okay with that.
WR, Calvin Ridley; can’t teach speed, takes huge steps forward in 2019.
TE, Jorden Reed; as late as he’s going, he’s a steal.

This is my quick list of players that I may avoid or won’t draft, because their value does not match the price (current ADP) in my opinion….

The Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (current ADP of 3.04 per FFC) figures to come back to earth some this season, closing the gap between his fantasy output and say the 4th and 5th fantasy quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, he’s an elite talent, but going as early as the 2nd and 3rd rounds in many drafts, I just don’t see myself taking a QB that early. Now, of course, should he fall a couple of rounds later, I am not wasting a moment to jump all over that.

Holdout Running backs Melvin Gordon (Chargers) and Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) carry too much risk for me to bother using an early draft pick on either. Gordon has an ADP of 3.03 per FFC, which continues to fall; past the 4th round I may consider. Like Gordon, Elliott (current ADP of 1.05 per FFC) is currently holding out, although there’s a feeling he may get a deal done sooner, rather than later. My feeling is I can build my team without the risk and headache.

Additional Sells;
QB, Baker Mayfield; a lot of promise, still going too early.
QB, Kyler Murray; need to see it first, other options available.
RB, Jerick McKinnon; too much risk with that knee.
WR, Antonio Brown; too much noise and distraction, and may not play.
WR, AJ Green; not healthy, going to miss a chunk of games.

That’s my take.
~David G. Ortega

Sunday, October 22, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st 2017
Saturday Evening Edition







Week 7 RB Rankings










In a matchup that should be filled with plenty of fireworks, I really like Falcons running back Devonta Freeman this week. Despite this being a road game for the Falcons, it’s a great matchup for Freeman against a struggling Patriots defense.

RB Rankings

1. Le’Veon Bell
2. Ezekiel Elliott
3. Devonta Freeman
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Todd Gurley
6. Jay Ajayi
7. Melvin Gordon
8. Mark Ingram
9. Jordan Howard
10. Carlos Hyde
11. Alvin Kamara
12. Jerick McKinnon
13. Christian McCaffrey
14. Leonard Fournette
15. Doug Martin

16. Chris Thompson
17. Adrian Peterson
18. CJ Anderson
19. Tevin Coleman
20. James White
21. Duke Johnson
22. Javorius Allen
23. Joe Mixon
24. Dion Lewis
25. Derrick Henry
26. Ty Montgomery
27. LeGarrette Blount
28. DeMarco Murray
29. Aaron Jones
30. Orleans Darkwa

That's My Take.

~David Ortega





Monday, September 25, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017
Monday Afternoon Edition






Monday Night Takes

It’s time for some Monday night football and tonight’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals will have plenty of fantasy implications with players like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jason Witten.

We’ve seen a lot of improved play this weekend on the offensive side of the ball and tonight I’d expect to see the trend continue. Players like JJ Nelson, Carson Palmer, and Chris Johnson may arrive tonight on the big stage.

Quarterback Dak Prescott; it was tough sledding for the young quarterback last, but tonight he’ll get back to his usual form taking care of the ball and making good decisions. He’s a mid-QB2 this week and is in line to tally his normal 16-20 fantasy points against a Card’s defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back Ezekiel Elliott; the Cards defense has been pretty solid through two weeks against the run, but they have yet to face any running backs of Elliott’s caliber. Elliott should see his normal workload tonight as this matchup should remain close throughout. He won’t run wild tonight, but his production should be worthy of starting as your RB1.

Wide Receiver Dez Bryant; some speculate a tough matchup for the Cowboys receiver this week. Bryant is a big physical receiver that has the trust of his quarterback; 25 targets through 2 games. Tonight Bryant will matchup with a secondary that was torched back in week one by the Lions; Cards surrendered 18 receptions for 245 yards and three scores. Bryant has only secured 9 passes this season for 102 yards and a touchdown; he’ll make a run at those numbers tonight.

Tight End Jason Witten; the Cowboys veteran tight end has been his quarterback’s security blanket (17 of 22 receptions to targets) through the first two weeks of the season (keeping Witten very relevant in fantasy). He’ll continue to be his go to tonight against the Cardinals and is easily a TE1.

Quarterback Carson Palmer; the Cardinals quarterback has had his struggles in this early season, perhaps is just rust from lack of playing time and practice during training camp and preseason. Some will argue his age has caught up to him, but I think we could see the same weekend trend. I don’t think you are starting Palmer this week, but I think he has a decent outing (good for his receivers) against a secondary that Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian shredded pretty good last week.

Running Back Chris Johnson; the Cardinal’s newest Johnson had few carries last week, but didn’t look bad. He’s sure to get a more sustained look tonight (provided Palmer doesn’t throw this one to the other side early). Johnson will be interesting to watch tonight; not looking for a huge game from him, but rather his usage. If he runs well and still has a little of that great speed, he could become a viable flex option in the short future.

Wide Receiver JJ Nelson; the Cardinals number three receiver in the absence of John Brown (and disappearance of Fitz) has emerged as their best receiver and big play threat. But we saw some of this last season, so we should not be surprised. What has raised eye-brows is his sudden rise in fantasy land. Nelson is the current No.27 fantasy receiver in PPR (No.12 standard) entering tonight’s contest. With a current stat line of 10/163/2, if he’s healthy to go, expect his ranking to rise inside the Top-20 and Top-10 respectively.

Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald; the 14 year veteran leads the Cards receivers with 19 targets through two games this season, it just hasn’t translated into any kind of production fantasy owners can trust. He’s typically regarded as a borderline WR/WR3, but given his current state coming off a 3-catch 21-yard performance, owners may want to tap the brakes a bit when it comes to Fitz. He may be down in PPR leagues this week, but he should still hold some value as a flex in standard leagues as a viable red-zone threat

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega



Wednesday, August 9, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 9th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition






Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.


~David Ortega