FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 8th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

Hey, it’s Sunday, funday. We’ve got plenty of football on the docket and I am heavily invested in DFS today. With so many DFS lineups (probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 50, I may have a few questions swirling in my head. What’s the weather today, is this stud sitting today, did that guy get activated, do I have this guy in my lineups. These would be a few and while I have plenty more and little time before kickoff, it’s time to play a little game.

This little exercise I do can be considered the same “Questions Game”, Phoebe played with Joey on the show “Friends” where she asked him a series of questions and he answers them very quickly. Unfortunately for me there is no Monica and Rachel option. I will just have to stay with football criteria.

Here are the 10 quick questions or things on my mind.

1. How good is CJ Stroud?

My Take: The kid has been fabulous this season and impressive averaging over 300 passing per game with 6 passing touchdowns and no picks. The whole program in Houston looks impressive and I suspect the early success of Stroud has a lot to do with it. I can see the Texans start to shift their focus and lean more on the run game more going forward, but I don’t see Stroud necessarily slowing down. He’s got a nice compliment of weapons so I don’t believe his success is short lived.

2. Can Sammy Step up in Week 5?

My Take: The Lions are a little depleted on the offensive side of the ball with a couple of key players likely out today against the Panthers. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been better than good through the team’s first four games and will likely be featured in the pass game today. LaPorta is the number two fantasy tight end (fantasy points per game) and has a great chance at improving those numbers today.

3. Which Dolphin will blow up in Week 5?

My Take: All the Dolphins do is add speed and get faster. As if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle weren’t fast enough, the team has added wide receiver Chase Claypool. Nonetheless, Waddle, Claypool, Hill or even Robbie Chosen, this team is just a warehouse of dynamite waiting to explode. This week’s matchup looks to be a great opportunity and if I’m betting, it’s Cheetah time again.

4. Will Waller finally Wake?

My Take: It’s been four weeks, has someone reminded quarterback Daniel Jones, he has tight end Darren Waller in his lineup? Waller has basically been absent in the Giants pass game, the past two games with just 6 receptions for 41 yards and a fantasy TE31 showing in this span. The Giants offense has looked horrid and even a matchup with the Dolphins offers few silver linings. In what could become a lopsided affair, maybe Jones can check it down to Waller once in a while.

5. Can Swift Stay Hot?

My Take: Today’s matchup with the Rams will be interesting. The Eagles offense is loaded with weapons in the passing game and when you add Swift to the mix, look out. Since taking over the lead back duties in Philly, Swift has been stellar with 361 yards rushing and a 6.2 yards per carry average. The Rams defense has been in the top third against the run this season, but today they face Swift, a very tall task. The Eagles O-line is one of the best in the league and Swift is just a special talent, advantage Swift.

6. Is this The Return of Cooper Kupp?

My Take: I say it’s a bit premature to say it’s the return. However, I would expect to see Kupp targeted somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 times today. He will have fair numbers, worthy of starting but his impact will be how his presence will allow things to open up for Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee today.

7. Can Joe Cool Heat Up?

My Take: As a fantasy owner of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase I certainly hope so. The real question is how healthy is that calf. I am sure the team is staring at their bye week (week 7), when rest will help Burrow heal. Until then, there are going to be some tough outings, however today’s matchup against the Cardinals may offer a glimpse of what might be coming. The Cardinals allow the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but are fantasy owners willing to chance it (not me).

8. Is it Breece Hall time?

My Take: Well it sure sounds like the Jets intend to turn Hall loose this week. The Head coach announced earlier in the week, no restrictions, just like music to fantasy owners ears. It’s a prime matchup for Hall, as the Broncos have the worst run defense this season and their tackling has been atrocious. Hall should be in all seasonal lineups today and make sure you have plenty of shares in DSF.

9. Can the Chiefs slow JJ?

My Take: So far through four weeks, no one has been able to slow Justin Jefferson. JJ is getting peppered with targets every week, averaging nearly 12 per game. All he has done with this workload is turned it into 8.2 receptions, 135 yards receiving per game with three touchdowns. He was the consensus overall number one in fantasy drafts and he is living up to expectations. Today shouldn’t be any different.

10. Can CMC steam roll the Cowboys?

My Take: This will be the classic “Clash of the Titans” NFC matchup and it will be in primetime on Sunday Night. Just like Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey was a top draft prospect in fantasy and in most drafts was the first running back selected. Through the first four weeks, CMC has been in a world of his own, leading all fantasy players in scoring with 150 yards of offense per game and seven touchdowns this season. Even if the Cowboys defense can slow him, he has such a high floor, he’s still going to get numbers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

This one is definitely not a Clash of the Titans, with the New York Giants hobbling into the bay area to square off with the Niners. The G-men will be without their lead-running back Saquon Barkley (ankle injury), who has already been ruled out.

In my best estimation for fantasy purposes, this matchup has a strong possibility for the following, a strong performance from the Niners offense and a lot of garbage time yardage for running back Matt Breida and tight end Darren Waller. The only question could be how long will they remain in this affair before they get pulled.

Like most, I like Christian McCaffrey because he figures to be involved early and often, but I also believe the Niners will attack the Giants defense utilizing several of their other weapons. Quarterback Brock Purdy should be solid and I like him to hook up with several of his favorites tonight.

My Fantasy Five for Thursday night;

1.49ers Defense (DST) - The Giants come into this matchup wounded and without their best player, running back Saquon Barkley. It could spell for a long night for quarterback Daniel Jones and offense. The Niners defense will look to get after Jones in this one and could post a number of sacks and even create a turnover or two. (DK-My Captain)

2.Brock Purdy (QB) - The Niners quarterback could be in for a big night. Even with one of his favorites (Brandon Aiyuk) possibly sidelined in this contest, he has more than enough fireworks to work with. If Aiyuk sits, expect Brock to spread the ball around to his backs and tight end.

3. Christian McCaffrey (RB) - The Niners running back figures to be a big part of the offense tonight, but if Aiyuk is out expect CMC to help pick up the slack in the passing game. This matchup looks like a good one for a score or possibly two.

4. Darren Waller (TE) - The Giants tight end looked healthy last week turning in his best game of the young season with 6 catches for 76 yards on 8 targets. With Barkley OUT for this one tonight, you have to believe Jones and company will make Waller a focal point of the pass game.  . 

5.George Kittle (TE) - The Niners tight end could see his workload in the passing game increased tonight in the possible absence of Aiyuk. Kittle has only 6 receptions for 49 yards receiving through two weeks, ranking as fantasy TE26. I like his chances for a productive night.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th, 2023

Wednesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Outlook: Opportunity (RBs)

We are beyond the fantasy draft now for most (there are still some late drafters on the clock), so it’s time to start talking about the upcoming season and time to start looking at probabilities, tendencies, and trends. It’s time to look at the numbers.

Top 10 in 2022

Total Touches (carries + catches)

1. Josh Jacobs / 340 + 53 = 393

2. Derrick Henry / 349 + 33 = 382

3. Saquon Barkley / 295 + 57 = 353

4. Christian McCaffrey / 244 + 85 = 329

5. Nick Chubb / 302 + 27 = 329

6. Najee Harris / 272 + 41 = 313

7. Austin Ekeler / 204 + 107 = 311

8. Dalvin Cook / 264 + 39 = 303

9. Alvin Kamara / 223 + 57 = 280

10. Rhamondre Stevenson / 210 + 69 = 279

Because of his heavy usage in the passing game, the Chargers running back Austin Ekeler checks in at number 7. It’s easy to see why he’s being drafted early in the 1st round of most drafts, especially in PPR formats.

Just like Ekeler, McCaffrey’s contributions in the pass game elevate his usage to top 5 and make him a high value target in fantasy drafts. His ADP has him positioned as the Number one fantasy runner in 2023 and for good reason – No.2 fantasy running back right behind Ekeler.

This is just a look at the numbers heading into the 2023 NFL season. Good luck Ballers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 4th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 5 Lineup Decisions

Running Back Trends
Over the past two weeks, here are the top 10 most used running backs;

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR: 64 touches (51 carries/13 receptions)
2. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ: 53 touches (39/14)*
3. Leonard Fournette, JAX: 52 touches (44/8)
4. Nick Chubb, CLE: 50 touches (43/7)
5. Kerryon Johnson, DET: 49 touches (46/3)
6. Derrick Henry, TEN: 46 touches (44/2)
7. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL: 45 touches (37/8)
8. Alvin Kamara, NO: 45 touches (33/12)
9. David Montgomery, CHI: 40 touches (34/6)
10. Dalvin Cook, MIN: 40 touches (30/10)

DNP Week 4*

Targets to Target
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted wide receivers;

1. Mike Evans, TB - 22 targets
2. Keenan Allen, LAC - 22 targets
3. Cole Beasley, BUF - 22 targets
4. Davante Adams, GB - 19 targets*
5. Jarvis Landry, CLE - 19 targets
6. Preston Williams, MIA - 19 targets
7. Chris Godwin, TB - 18 targets
8. Sterling Shepard, NYG - 18 targets
9. Josh Gordon, NE - 18 targets
10. Mohamed Sanu, ATL - 18 targets

Out for Week 5*

PPR Specials
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted running backs;

1. David Johnson, ARI - 20 targets
2. Christian McCaffrey, CAR - 14 targets
3. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ - 14 targets*
4. James White, NE - 14 targets
5. Alvin Kamara, NO - 13 targets
6. Dalvin Cook, MIN - 13 targets
7. Devonta Freeman, ATL - 13 targets
8. Austin Ekeler, LAC - 12 targets
9. Saquan Barkley, NYG - 12 targets*
10. James Conner, PIT: 12 targets

DNP Week 4*

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Night Edition

August 23rd, 2019

Bad Boys Running Wild

The Ones!

With the peak of the Fantasy draft season upon us (a lot of fantasy drafts expected this weekend and next), it’s time to tighten up your rankings and close in on those fantasy picks that are going to bring home the hardware.

Out of the gate, this of course is not headline news, the top pick for me is a no-brainer; Saquan Barkley (MR#RB1). Last season the Giants runner totaled 352 touches (261 carries, 91 receptions), playing in all 16 games of his rookie campaign. There is no reason to think he won’t see similar numbers once again and with his nose for the big play, he’s a solid first pick.

Running backs Christian McCaffrey (MR#RB2) and Alvin Kamara (MR#RB3) offer similar upside, but both are not quite the workhorse as is Barkley.

It’s no secret in Cleveland, running back Nick Chubb (MR#RB5)is expected to be the man to open the season. He has a great opportunity to be a fantasy star and with the upgraded passing game, he should be. Last season Chubb finished 10th in NFL rushing and just missed 1,000 yard by four.

It may be a surprise to see Le’Veon Bell (MR#RB7) as high as I have him, but unlike many other Fantasy experts, I believe Bell will be fine in New york. You don’t pay top dollars for a high-performance car to park it in the garage. I happen to believe Bell is going to see a large volume of work and will be highly productive.

I have the Lions star runner Kerryon Johnson (MR#RB10) in my top 10, because I am drinking the Kool-aid. His rookie season was cut short due to injury (knee), but Johnson is healthy in 2019 and expected to open the season as the Lions lead-back. KJ is a versatile back (32 receptions in 2018) and from weeks 7 to week 11, he averaged 17.4 touches per game. He has the potential for a heavier workload and finishing inside the Fantasy Top 10 this season.

1.Saquon Barkley

2.C. McCaffrey

3.Alvin Kamara

4.David Johnson

5.Nick Chubb

6.Joe Mixon

7.LeVeon Bell

8.Dalvin Cook

9.Todd Gurley

10.Kerryon Johnson

11.Damien Williams

12.Devonta Freeman

The Next 12

Just a couple of quick notables for the second 12 of my rankings list; I am believing the hype surrounding Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs (MR#RB14). He could be a 20-touch per game back in Head Coach John Gruden’s offense.

I dropped Ezekiel Elliot (MR#RB15) outside my top 12, due to his holdout and the risk he could miss some games. Should he get signed, he catapults up the charts to number 5. Drafting him as a RB1 or RB2 is basically based on how confident you are he’ll be back in Dallas and when.

I have Leonard Fournette (MR#RB17) a little low at 17, but if he stays healthy this season he could easily finish in the top 10. Last season Fournette played in 8 games, finishing as the No.40 RB in fantasy PPR scoring, as compared to his rookie season where he played in 13 games and finished 9th.

Although he may be considered a little undersized, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (MR#RB24) proved he is more than capable in an NFL backfield. The former Buffalo out of the University of Colorado finished his rookie campaign as the 13th RB in fantasy PPR scoring. He makes my board as a low-end RB2, but I honestly feel he could be a little low.

13.James Conner

14.Josh Jacobs

15.Ezekiel Elliott

16.Aaron Jones

17.L. Fournette

18.Marlon Mack

19.Melvin Gordon

20.Derrick Henry

21.Mark Ingram

22.Tevin Coleman

23.Chris Carson

24.Phillip Lindsay

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Another week of exciting DFS and this week I am liking a lot what I am rolling out for Sunday (Week 4) on Fan Duel;

QB-Matthew Stafford ($7,700): At his price I am a big fan of Stafford this week. The Vikings are stout versus the run and the Lions don’t run the ball particularly well, leaving Stafford as the best option. The Vikings defense has allowed the 5th most passing yards this season and the 5th most completions. Stafford has been quiet the past two weeks, but that all could change this Sunday.

RB-LeSean McCoy ($8,300): The Bills running back was held in check last week against the No.3 run defense in the league, but this week Shady gets a crack at the No.8 run defense (Falcons). Through 3 weeks the Falcons defense has faced the 4th fewest carries in the league, but they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry (3rd highest in the league). This plays right up McCoy’s alley. He should see a hefty load of carries on Sunday and bounce back from week 3

RB-Christian McCaffrey ($6,400): This is one of my bargain plays this week. The rookie running back should be plenty involved in the pass game for a second straight week and with a matchup against the Patriots 25th ranked run defense, he could see some daylight on the ground. I’d expect McCaffrey to notch somewhere between 14-16 touches; that should be plenty for him to post double figure fantasy points.

WR-Stefon Diggs ($7,200): The Vikings receiver was huge last week, so can he do it two weeks in a row. I am a believer, but more than that, Keenum has found a groove and the Vikings passing game has new life. Entering week 4, the Lions have allowed the 8th most receptions to opposing receivers. I like Diggs chances to push that total higher this week.

WR-Alshon Jeffery ($7,100): The Eagles are traveling out west this week and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could be fantasy gold in DFS. That may be a little of an over exaggeration, but he should be a strong play this week against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Jeffery is seeing a steady diet of targets each week, so he should be good to go this Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,300): In the same matchup I am just as high on the Chargers Keenan Allen. The Eagles have played pretty well through the first three weeks, but their secondary is shaky; most receptions to opposing receivers, 7th most receiving yards allowed and 11th most fantasy points. Allen is far and away the number one option in the passing game and this Sunday he should rebound from a sub-par week 3 outing.

TE-Jimmy Graham ($6,200): Last week Graham was questionable leading into the team’s week 3 matchup. He responded with a decent showing, 7 receptions for 72 yards. This week isn’t so much about Graham’s matchup against the Colts, but more rather about his 11 targets last week. The Seahawks ground attack is in neutral, so it’s safe to bet they will rely on Wilson’s arm. Graham is a favorite and should be plenty busy Sunday night.

K-Ryan Succop ($4,600): The Titans should be able to move the ball okay against the Texans this week, but being a divisional matchup this one will likely be close and involve a lot of kicking. I see the Titans entering the red-zone quite often, but may have to settle for a few kicks. At his $4,600 price, Ryan Succop is a favorite this week.

DST-Jaguars ($5,200): The Jags are on the road, but as well as their defense has played, you have to love their matchup against the Jets. The defense leads the league in sacks, and they are ranked 3rd overall. The Jets offense isn’t the worst in the league, but ranked 28th in the league this is a good fit and play for the Jags in week 4.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

Even with plenty of drafts left to be completed this weekend (still have several myself), I’m going to start turning my attention away from who to draft, but rather toward what to expect from some of your draftees or draft prospect.

By now we’ve heard a lot of the conversations and we are familiar with the many fantasy player names, so here’s my take on a few of this year’s Studs and Duds. And when I say dud, just be clear not a bust. A dud is player that does not live up to the draft position or hype. So let’s get to it.

Studs (Target these players)

No surprise here with the Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Everyone knows his name and they’ve seen his work. The only question folks are asking, is the first pick Bell or Cardinals running back David Johnson. In my book the choice is Bell, everyday and twice on Sunday. No disrespect to DJ, he’s going to have a big season, but the pick is Bell. Last season, Le’Veon played in just 12 games and finished as the No.3 fantasy running back (PPR format) last season and averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game (Johnson averaged 25.5). Bell is a gifted runner with smooth moves, and an elite pass catcher (75 receptions last season). Entering the 2017 season, Bell is healthy and a major compliment to an offense that looks poised to make a lot of noise this season.

In the NFC North, the Bears have a grinder in their backfield by the name of Jordan Howard; this kid is a stud. He’s going to be available at the turn of the 1st and 2nd round and should go ahead of running backs like Jay Ajayi, Todd Gurley, and DeMarco Murray. Last season after missing the first game, Howard didn’t start for the Bears until week 4 and finished as the No. 10 fantasy running back (PPR format), he was 9th in standard leagues. Howard rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2016, including 7 100-yard games. He’s the bell-cow in Chicago and should put up even better numbers in 2017.

Duds (drafting too high)

There’s no question Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a top talent in the NFL, but last season with insufficient quarterback play he finished 2016 as the No. 26 wide receiver. His line for 2016 was 78-954-4 on 151 targets. This season he’s going to be playing with a rookie quarterback, so even if he sees the same volume this season it’s hard for me to see his quarterback being dramatically more efficient. As good a player as Hopkins is, if he takes a step up finishing closer to 80-1,000-5 (which would have put him as a borderline top 20 fantasy receiver last season), a borderline top 20 receiver is where I see Hopkins ceiling this season. He’s being drafted as the No. 16 fantasy receiver in PPR format (according to FFC), but there are other player options I like ahead of him like;  Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, and even Martavis Bryant.

Although I am on high on this kid and a big fan of running back Christian McCaffrey, even in PPR format I don’t expect a near top 10 finish. McCaffrey could conceivably catch 60-65 balls this season, but I believe 125 carries is probably near his ceiling for his first season with a projected finish around 190.5 fantasy points; this would be in line for just outside the top 20 last season. McCaffrey looks like he could be a special player, but his current ADP of 2.12 (No. 12 fantasy running back according FFC in PPR) is a bit too rich and tall order for the rookie (if you ask me). If you are going to want the Panther’s rookie running back for this season, you will have to reach for him early in your draft, but that’s what it is a reach in the 2nd round.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th 2017

Monday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Late Round Values

Part of a any great draft is being able to find value wherever you can. With so many studs loaded up front, there’s just more talent available than value. As your fantasy drafts progress you will see some players fall much further than expected and that’s where you will find the value to make your draft a success.

What I am saying, players like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are going to come off the board early and even players like Michael Thomas and the Jordan Howard will go quick. But once you get into the mid-rounds you’re going to see certain players that have legitimate upside still sitting there.

One player I like is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. With Jordan Matthews now off to Buffalo, his departure has opened up 117 targets in the Eagles passing game from a season ago. Ertz is going to be one of quarterback Carson Wentz primary targets this season and should be in line for a heavier dose of targets, coming off 106 from last season. Currently his ADP is 101.4 according to FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12 team leagues and he’s going off the board as the No. 9 fantasy tight end, so he’s someone with upside that you can wait on.

Another potential hidden gem is Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley. He looked very good in the team’s dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Bengals finishing with 57 yards rushing and figures to be the starter to open the season. Kelley is currently going off the board as the No. 34 fantasy running back with an ADP of 7.05 (according to FFC). Last season Kelley only started 9 games, playing in 15 and finished as the No. 26 fantasy runner in standard leagues. I love his value at his current ADP, he is virtually a steal and could be a nice flex option during the early bye weeks.

Like Kelley, the Panthers Jonathan Stewart is going off the board fairly late; the No. 41 fantasy running back according to FFC. His ADP of 9.01 puts him around the 9th round and a nice value for owners looking to add depth. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, but Stewart is still going to be involved and tackle most of the heavy lifting in short-yardage and possibly goal line. Stewart was the No. 29 back last season and should see enough work between the 20s to reach the similar numbers this season. His ceiling may be limited, but he’s got a nice floor owners can work with.

With the sudden loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, there is going to be a lot more balls to go around in the Patriots passing game. Already considered hot fantasy stocks, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks should now see a spike in their target share this season. Another benefactor will be running back James White. Last season the Patriots ball carrier also managed 60 receptions on 86 targets finishing as the No. 26 fantasy back in PPR. He could easily see north of 100 targets this season and finish around near the top 20. With a current ADP of 13.05 (according to FFC) and going off the board outside the top 50 for running backs, White is basically going undrafted and risk free in any format.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega