FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023

Sunday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Marquis Brown, Current ADP 6.12 - the Cardinals receiver finished the 2022 campaign tied as the No.24 fantasy receiver. Playing in only 12 games last season, Brown could have a breakout year in 2023, with the Cardinals former leading receiver DeAndre Hopkins now in Tennessee. The biggest question with be the quarterback spot, but Brown has the talent to be a Fantasy WR2. He’s currently being drafted as the WR35 going around the 6th/7th round turn.

RB-James Cook, Current ADP 7.06 - the Bills 2nd year running back split backfield duties last season, but still  enjoyed a strong 2022 campaign rushing for 507 yards, while adding 21 receptions for 180 air yards. Cook finished tied for the 2nd highest rushing yards per carry (minimum 80 carries) in 2022 and with what looks like a clear path to a much greater role in 2023, he could have a big year. He’s currently being drafted in the mid-7th round of fantasy drafts.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023
Sunday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

 
TE-Evan Engram, Current ADP 8.04 - the Jaguars tight end earned a contract extension in the off-season with his 2022 play. Last season the Jags tight end finished the year as the No.7 fantasy scoring tight end, recording 73 receptions (tied for 3rd amongst TEs), 766 yards receiving (4th), with 4 touchdowns. With a new contract and a rising start at quarterback, Engram is poised to improve on those numbers in 2023. He’s currently coming off the boards around mid-8th round.

RB-AJ Dillon, Current ADP 8.09 - the Packer’s running back was the No.32 fantasy ball carrier in 2022, finishing the season with 770 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. Dillon is currently coming off the board as RB32. But with the Packers quarterback change in the offseason, the team figures to lean more on the run this season which should bolster Dillon’s ground game numbers. Dillon is currently coming off the draft boards in the late 8th round.
 
That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Draft Day Watch

As you are preparing for your imminent fantasy draft, you should  be thinking about what players will fall to your spot throughout the draft and be prepared to adjust on the fly as picks from left field occur.

The Draft is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and you should not be playing checkers, but more like chess as you make your selections and navigate your way to your perfect draft.

As the draft gets started, if you are in position with an early pick, one of the first two running backs you need to be looking at is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler was the No.1 fantasy scoring running back in 2022 and has played in 33 of the teams past 34 games. With 107 receptions last season he is the premiere fantasy ppr receiving back.

Where people are currently ranking wide receiver Davante Adams, he’s a great early to mid 2nd round or beyond pick. Adams has been prolific his past three seasons and even if his numbers take a slight hit with a new quarterback in Las Vegas, he’s still a top 5 or 6 fantasy receiver. In the 2nd round he is coming off most boards as the WR9.

A little further into your draft, you can look for the Browns Amari Cooper to be available in the 3rd round to pair up with your Adams pick. Cooper is coming off a strong 2022 season where he finished as the No.15 fantasy receiver grabbing 78 balls for 1,160 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. In 2022 Cooper only had his quarterback DeShaun Watson for six games. With a full camp under their belts, Cooper is a strong candidate to make a jump forward.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones was last season's No.11 fantasy running back and he’s currently being drafted as the RB16 around the mid-4th round. Last season Jones totaled over 1,500 yards of offense and scored 7 total touchdowns in 2022, very reachable numbers in 2023.

In a new city and a new opportunity, the whispers coming out of the New York Giants training camp about their starting tight end Darren Waller are getting louder. Waller had a down year in 2022 playing in only 9 games, but he was still scoring as a Top-10 fantasy tight end. He’s in a new place and certainly has the talent to be a Top-5 Fantasy, just as he was in 2020, when he finished as the No.2 fantasy tight end. He’s currently coming off draft boards as an early 6th round pick, but he’s moving up.

Steelers wide receiver George Pickens' star is on the rise this season. He finished 2022 as the No.45 fantasy receiver, but there’s no question about his talent and ability, he just needs the opportunity. Pickens was targeted just 84 times last season, a number he will surely surpass in 2023. Currently coming off the draft boards as the WR34, he is an early 7th round pick.

As we truck along into the mid-rounds of your draft a possible steal also in the 7th round could be quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson returned to action in 2022 after sitting out the entire 2021 season. He only played six games last season, but it was enough to shake the rust. If he regains his 2020 form (finished as the No.5 fantasy QB), he’s the 9th quarterback coming off the board in round 7th, VALUE. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th, 2023

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

Draft Rankings for 2023

(PPR Format)

The final weekend and probably busiest weekend of fantasy draft season is creeping towards us and with so much excitement afoot it’s time to dial in your strategy and hone in on your 1st round picks.

Below are my Top 10 and full 1st round (12-team league) rankings for 2023 and of course, there’s no surprise here with my top pick of Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. This season the Vikings wideout is the consensus number one pick in most rankings and well deserved. In 2022, Jefferson led all receivers with 128 receptions and posted the 6th best All-Time receiving yards mark with 1,809.

The Top-10

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Austin Ekeler

5. Cooper Kupp

6. Tyreek Hill

7. Travis Kelce

8. Saquon Barkley

9. Stefon Diggs

10. Davante Adams

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase falls in at number Two. An incredible talent and highlight-reel, Chase scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he played last season. He’s entering season number three and appears poised to post big numbers in 2023.

In the PPR format, I had to boost Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to the number four spot. Ekeler is a scoring machine with 38 combined touchdowns over the past two seasons and in 2022 he finished tied for the 5th spot in fantasy points per game (ppr). Perhaps his best stat is playing in all 33 games the past two seasons.

With a full season of health under his belt, I am probably higher on running back Saquon Barkley than most. In 2022 Barkley posted 295 carries, played in 16 games, and finished 5th in fantasy scoring for running backs. Healthy and ready to go in 2023, Barkley should only improve on those numbers.

Another fantasy wide receiver I am excited about more than most others is Davante Adams. I am not sure why so many are down on the Raiders receiver this year. Yes, he’s getting a new quarterback, but he’s still an elite receiver. His numbers over the past three seasons have been prolific. Since 2020 Adams has 4,443 receiving yards and 338 receptions, both rank first among fantasy wide receivers.

And filling out the tail end of Round One…

11. CeeDee Lamb

12. AJ Brown

The Eagles receiver AJ Brown was solid in 2022, especially down the stretch. For the season Brown was the number eight fantasy scoring receiver. In his last six games he posted no fewer than 13 fantasy points, eclipsing 17 or more points in four of those six games.

Set your sights high and draft with confidence.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Overvalued Players

And so begins all of the hate. Well, not really. This piece is not meant to be filled with any kind of fantasy hate, but rather least liked we’ll call it. With a couple of drafts still to go this weekend I am constantly checking the current ADPs and looking over my (makeshift homemade) player rankings.

There are plenty of studs to love in this year’s fantasy drafts, but I would have to say there a couple of players getting lots of love right now that I am not feeling.

Let’s start with the biggest mover on the boards of recent, the Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan. Before the Patriots starting receiver Julian Edelman went down with a season ending knee injury, Hogan had value coming significantly late of the draft boards (in the flier position). Since the injury to Edelman, Hogan’s stock is skyrocketing. While I do believe his stock is on the rise (currently being drafted as the No. 35 fantasy receiver) remember last season with tight end Rob Gronkowski out for much of the campaign, Hogan did not even crack the top 50 fantasy receivers (in PPR). Hogan tallied just 38 receptions for 680 yards and four scores on 58 targets. He’s a popular fantasy flavor right now, but this season not only do you have Gronk back, but the team has added Brandin Cooks. I think his ceiling may be around 80 targets with his stats project out he’s looking at 52 catches, 930 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns (good enough for the No. 38 fantasy receiver last season). I think with the loss, Hogan definitely has a shot at finishing around the top 40 (but that is at the top of his ceiling), but his current 7th round draft position price may be a little too high.

I look at the Broncos backfield and yes, last season before going down running back CJ Anderson was having a very nice run ranked as the No. 12 fantasy runner after 7 weeks. Entering his fifth year in Denver, Anderson has yet to play a full season in his four year career and is coming off a knee injury just like newly acquired (in the off-season) running back Jamaal Charles (so health should be a concern for both). Both backs appear now healthy and at the moment the job looks like it’s Anderson's. I don’t have any questions about Anderson’s toughness or productivity, but in the little that I have seen of both backs this season, there’s little separation from the two. When you stack up Anderson versus Charles, the latter just has so much more upside. Believing that Charles is healthy now (and he looked very good in the small sample size I watched, especially pass protection), I won’t be surprised if the Broncos head coach Vance Joseph names him the starter sooner rather than later. It’s because of this I am leery of Anderson’s current ADP of 5.03 (according FFC), the No. 23 fantasy running back going off the board. I think Anderson will stay fantasy relevant, but with a healthy Charles, a top 30 fantasy running back finish could be long stretch.

Moving to Vegas, oh wait, the Oakland Raiders will be moving to Vegas eventually, just not there yet. And one player they will be bringing along with them possibly (if he can last) is “Beast Mode” running back Marshawn Lynch. His nickname has to be one of the coolest, unfortunately however cool it is, it won’t help you score points in fantasy football. Lynch is returning to football after taking a year off and while some may say and believe the year off could be good for him and his body, I have my reservations about a player stepping away for a full season and then deciding to return. Lynch is one of the baddest and no question toughest runners the game has seen, but he sat out a full year (operative word being sat and not trained for a year). I think Lynch can return to his old form and in Oakland they have a pretty good O-line, so there should be some nice productivity. My concerns with Lynch, I just don’t see him coming back and rushing for 1,200 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns just like that, which his current 2.12 ADP in standard format (according to FFC) would suggest. Remember, he’s a hard nosed, tough runner between the tackles and now 31 years of age entering his 10th season; how much does he have left in the tank? The Raiders have depth and plenty of weapons surrounding their franchise quarterback Derek Carr, so I can’t see them overworking Lynch early in the season. Lynch collected 1,181 carries from 2011-2015, which is a lot of punishment. I expect to see Lynch used as a primary early down and short-yardage back this season, maybe getting a little more run late in the year. I’m just not expecting the volume needed to finish as a top 20 fantasy runner. I would be happy with 200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 160 yards receiving, 9 total touchdowns (that would be the No. 22 fantasy running back last season, standard format).

Now I might have a little more love for this player in Green Bay, tight end Martellus Bennett. He’s in a new system with a great quarterback and there’s no competition in front him to steal opportunities; Bennett is the clear cut starting tight end. Hold on, is this for 2016? After the Patriots lost Gronkowski, Bennett was set up to have big year as the No. 1 tight end. So how did he do? Bennett finished as the No. 10 fantasy tight end last season with 55 receptions, 701 yards receiving and a career high 7 touchdowns. His ADP is 8.05, the 10th tight end off the board. My take here is you have players like Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, and Jack Doyle going several rounds later and I am not so sure the difference is going to be that great. Remember like New England, Green Bay has a loaded offense with a lot of weapons, not really certain where Bennett will fit in the pecking order. I think you can wait on him and get players of equal or similar productivity.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2017

Friday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Undervalued Players

Looking at the current ADPs and rankings, it may seem easy to see players fantasy value, but then again maybe not. I am no professor and don’t have any scientific degrees hanging on the wall, but I am believer in numbers never lie (maybe stretch the truth now and then).

So let’s start with the Patriots running back James White. If you ask me head coach Bill Belichick has put the writing on the wall with the statement running back Mike Gillislee “has a ways to go.” I don’t believe this is any indictment necessarily, but it supports my belief that White is still the primary back in New England. In the off season White signed a three-year extension after finishing the 2016 season third in both targets (86) and receptions (60). White is going to have a big role in the Patriots short passing game while mixing in a few carries; he’s going to be fantasy relevant once again after finishing as the No. 26 fantasy running back in 2016 (in PPR formats). Currently White is being drafted at the tail end of the 9th round as the 43rd running back off the board (according to FFC).

The quarterback position is looking very deep this season, once you get past the elite (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) and the Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is one of the undervalued. Last season was a down year for Palmer, he had an injured John Brown for most of the season and an inconsistent Michael Floyd that the team eventually released following an arrest incident. But it was only a season removed from when Palmer finished as the league’s No. 5 fantasy quarterback when he passed for 4,671 yards passing and 35 touchdowns (in 2015). This season the crew passing game looks ready to fly and I can see Palmer easily finishing near the top 10, maybe 11 or 12. Currently Palmer is being drafted as the No. 19 fantasy quarterback, around the 13th round. You can get Palmer much earlier in drafts and according to this fantasy footballer I believe in the value.

A pair of wide receivers that I find interesting and undervalued include; the Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. Currently Williams is going off the board as the No. 40 fantasy receiver with an ADP of 8.10 (according to FFC), while Benjamin is going outside the top 60 (likely undrafted). Both receivers are poised to enter the season as part of a top tier offense with quarterback Philip Rivers and running game led by Melvin Gordon. From weeks 5 to 13 last year Williams was the No. 14 fantasy receiver in PPR finishing the season at No. 18; so he certainly has WR2 upside. Benjamin has looked strong this preseason and last year he was strong out of the gate, ranking as the 24th fantasy receiver through the first 8 weeks. Like Williams, in this offense with Rivers at the helm Benjamin has some upside that fantasy owners should look at in the later rounds of their draft. Williams can certainly make an argument to be taken much earlier and closer to the top 30 (have to remember wide receiver Keenan Allen is back) and Benjamin should be considered as a streaming option for bye weeks and a flex option (play the matchups).

These are just some of the undervalued players I am seeing in current drafts.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st 2017

Thursday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Draft day is winding down as we inch closer to kickoff, just a little under a week away. Even with only one weekend left before the season starts, there are plenty of drafts to be had and to be dominated.

I’m not saying any of these guys will put you over the top, but here are a few players that I believe are going to ball hard this season.

There’s been a lot of changes in Philly this off-season, but one staple 2nd year quarterback Carson Wentz will have to rely on is tight end Zach Ertz. Last season Ertz turned in a line of 78-816-4 on 106 targets, good enough for the No. 6 fantasy tight end in PPR. The talk around the water cooler is Ertz should be even more involved in the passing game seeing an even larger share of targets this season. With good enough numbers for the number six spot last season, Ertz  has an ADP of 7.06 (the No. 8 tight end) according to FFC, making him a solid value around the middle of the 7th or early 8th round.

In Minnesota there’s not been a lot of talk, or at least I am not hearing a lot about wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Vikings 3rd year receiver has been on the rise since he arrived in 2015 with his targets, receptions, and yards receiving increasing each season. Last season he posted an 84-903-3 line on 112 targets and could easily see a bump in volume and better numbers. Last season Diggs finished as the league’s No. 30 fantasy receiver in PPR and is currently being drafted as the No. 25 fantasy receiver (according to FFC); he's going off the board around players like Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry. He’s in pretty good company, but I like Diggs potential especially returning this season with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. I am taking Diggs ahead of the others mentioned here.

Plodding along, another receiver who has been hyped in the past, so fantasy owners have to ask is there more smoke this season or do we actually have a fire? In the case of Dolphins wide receiver Devante Parker, it could finally be fire we see this season with the arrival of quarterback Jay Cutler. Parker is a big target and it’s no secret that Cutler likes those big targets downfield. The Dolphins big wideout is going to be Cutler’s primary downfield target which is why I love Parker at his current ADP (5.06 according to FFC), the No. 27 fantasy receiver off the board. He’s being drafted as a high-WR3 who easily has a high-end WR2 upside in PPR formats (and a tick higher in standard). I am high on this kid.

Deep Sleeper

Now this one may be nothing more than a dart throw and best in Best Ball drafts or deeper leagues, but there’s something to be said about Niners wide receiver Marquise Goodwin. It’s not a large sample size, but Goodwin and quarterback Brian Hoyer have shown some nice preseason chemistry. Goodwin has been targeted 8 times this preseason with a line of 5-104-1. I don’t see him as a heavy volume guy, more of a big play guy. In 2016 he caught 29 balls for 431 yards receiving and three touchdowns, good enough for 14.9 per catch. His career high in touchdowns is the three he posted last season, but I can easily see him surpassing that total this season, maybe double. Again, I see him as a late round flier in deep leagues or or a sneaky Best ball play, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as a possible streaming option through the byes.

IDP Notes

For those of you that enjoy fantasy football as much as I do, there is also the IDP (Individual Defensive Players) format to enjoy. And yes plenty to talk about there with the season fast approaching.

Dynamic Duo

With 2nd year player Joey Bosa showing so much promise last season (his fantasy stock is rising fast) finishing with 10.5 sacks, he’ll anchor one side of the Chargers defense with teammate Melvin Ingram (8.0 sacks last season) on the other side. Last season Bosa closed out his 2016 campaign with at least a half sack in 6 straight games. He has the look of a game-changer as an elite pass-rusher and there’s no reason fantasy owners shouldn’t expect to see him take another step forward in 2017. He should go early in IDP drafts, first rounder in IDP only drafts.

On the other side, defensive lineman Melvin Ingram is another stud pass rusher coming off a solid campaign last season. Ingram is entering his 6th season, having turned in 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons. His production has been steady since 2015 and with the arrival of Bosa, 2017 looks to be another solid year for Ingram. Like Bosa, he’s an early IDP selection; in IDP only leagues he’s a mid-to-low 2nd rounder in my opinion.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th 2017

Monday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Late Round Values

Part of a any great draft is being able to find value wherever you can. With so many studs loaded up front, there’s just more talent available than value. As your fantasy drafts progress you will see some players fall much further than expected and that’s where you will find the value to make your draft a success.

What I am saying, players like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are going to come off the board early and even players like Michael Thomas and the Jordan Howard will go quick. But once you get into the mid-rounds you’re going to see certain players that have legitimate upside still sitting there.

One player I like is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. With Jordan Matthews now off to Buffalo, his departure has opened up 117 targets in the Eagles passing game from a season ago. Ertz is going to be one of quarterback Carson Wentz primary targets this season and should be in line for a heavier dose of targets, coming off 106 from last season. Currently his ADP is 101.4 according to FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12 team leagues and he’s going off the board as the No. 9 fantasy tight end, so he’s someone with upside that you can wait on.

Another potential hidden gem is Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley. He looked very good in the team’s dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Bengals finishing with 57 yards rushing and figures to be the starter to open the season. Kelley is currently going off the board as the No. 34 fantasy running back with an ADP of 7.05 (according to FFC). Last season Kelley only started 9 games, playing in 15 and finished as the No. 26 fantasy runner in standard leagues. I love his value at his current ADP, he is virtually a steal and could be a nice flex option during the early bye weeks.

Like Kelley, the Panthers Jonathan Stewart is going off the board fairly late; the No. 41 fantasy running back according to FFC. His ADP of 9.01 puts him around the 9th round and a nice value for owners looking to add depth. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, but Stewart is still going to be involved and tackle most of the heavy lifting in short-yardage and possibly goal line. Stewart was the No. 29 back last season and should see enough work between the 20s to reach the similar numbers this season. His ceiling may be limited, but he’s got a nice floor owners can work with.

With the sudden loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, there is going to be a lot more balls to go around in the Patriots passing game. Already considered hot fantasy stocks, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks should now see a spike in their target share this season. Another benefactor will be running back James White. Last season the Patriots ball carrier also managed 60 receptions on 86 targets finishing as the No. 26 fantasy back in PPR. He could easily see north of 100 targets this season and finish around near the top 20. With a current ADP of 13.05 (according to FFC) and going off the board outside the top 50 for running backs, White is basically going undrafted and risk free in any format.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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August 23rd 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

We are inching ever so closer to your fantasy draft day or in many cases your next fantasy draft day. As you prepare for your next draft, even with one or more in the books, you can never get enough fantasy info or nuggets.

Now I can honestly say I didn’t pull any of these off the McDonald’s menu, but I will do my best to keep this as informative as I can. And with that, more players I like to add to your fantasy watch list.

The Lions will see the return of a healthy Ameer Abdullah this season (14 games missed last year). Abdullah is a talented runner that will give the Lions backfield a needed boost; team ranked 30th in rushing last season. There’s only been a small sample size of Abdullah since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, but a lot of analysts, including this fan like his opportunity and upside this year. Abdullah should be in line for the majority of the early down work this season, but don’t be fooled he’s more than a capable pass-catching back. You can wait on this kid a few rounds, right now his ADP is 5.07, he’s going off the board as the RB26 (according to FFC).

Another running back that you can wait on for a few rounds is the Saints Mark Ingram. With the arrival and influence of Adrian Peterson Ingram has an ADP of 5.09, going off the board as the RB27 (according to FFC). Last season Ingram played in all 16 games and started 14, finishing with 1,043 yards rushing, 46 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, good enough for the number 10 fantasy running back. Right now he is being greatly undervalued going where he’s currently being drafted, which is why I like Ingram so much.

Even with his three-game suspension to start the season looming, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is making enough noise in camp for me to believe when he returns, he’ll eventually (if not right away) resume his starting duties. Martin is healthy now, coming off an injury-shortened 2016 season, and even though he was not having a great campaign, he was on pace to finish around the RB22 fantasy back. Currently Martin has an ADP of 5.01, the RB23 going off the board (according to FFC), but he has looked very good this preseason and in camp. WE know Martin has upside, finishing as the RB3 in 2015. I am one who believes in his talent and ability and think if you take him this late, there’s plenty of good value here.

Speaking of running back Adrian Peterson, he’s back and with his return there’s a lot of questions and concerns, but this being fantasy football, there’s a lot of hope too. Everyone knows when healthy, All-Day is as good as they come and when healthy he’s a top 10 fantasy running back; top-10 eight times since 2007 (standard leagues according to Fantasydata), including number one in 2012. Peterson is now 32, in a new system, and figures to be in a timeshare with Mark Ingram. His volume is the big question, but there’s little doubt of his talent. I don’t think you can go wrong taking him beyond the 3rd round. Where he’s currently going (ADP of 4.12, the number RB22, according to FFC), puts him around a late RB2 or an early RB3; which is where I like him. He’s a mid-to-late 4th rounder with potential home run upside.

Interesting Late Grabs

There have been quite a few changes in New Orleans in the off-season, but one change that has caught my eye is the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. He joins an offense that has one of the league’s premiere deep ball throwers and accurate passers. Ginn has never really been a high volume receiver, but he is coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 95 targets, averaging 49 receptions. If he can see similar volume this season in New Orleans (last season the Saints number 3 receiver saw 104 targets), he’ll definitely improve his number 47 fantasy receiver from last year. With an ADP of 12.04, going off the board as the WR55, Ginn is virtually free and a late round flier I am high on.

  

Until we see how Jamaal Charles looks on the field, the best we can invest in him is a late round dart throw. He’s healthy now, but the Broncos have yet to turn him loose, so there should be pause. I’d expect when he hits the field, the needle will move a great deal in either direction; shoot up the draft board or go undrafted. If you are drafting before Saturday, he’s one of my favorite picks as a late or last round flier. The current word around the watercooler is he’s not expected to see a high volume of work this season (assuming he makes the team), maybe 8-10 touches, but I believe all this could change if he has success. And the biggest thing currently, with the exception of the team’s 6th round draft selection running back DeAngelo Henderson, there’s not a whole lot going on with the team’s running game.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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August 19th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

My Fantasy Favorites

It’s a Saturday night and all I can do think about fantasy football; doing a mock draft and sharing more thoughts on fantasy favorites.

I’ve managed to participate in a few dozen mock drafts myself and have joined several leagues and the following players have been on my list of targets.

Depending on what my strategy has been in some of these leagues I have joined, if the tendency has been the running backs early, a favorite I have been targeting (usually) in the 4th or 5th round (depending on league size) is Lions wide receiver Golden Tate. Since his arrival to Detroit in 2014, Tate has been a machine averaging 93.3 receptions, 1,073 yards receiving, and more than 135 targets in each of the past three seasons. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 95 targets from last season Tate should slide into the slot position more and see his volume greatly this season. More targets this season can only elevate him above his 17th fantasy receiver position from a year ago.

Whether I am targeting running backs or wide receivers early, one player I have been eyeing in the early rounds has been the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. There’s no question the big target is the Patriots Rob Gronkowski, but I typically don’t like taking a tight ends in the first two rounds where Gronk is going. Kelce is the 2nd tight end coming off the board which is warranted, since he finished last season as the number one TE with 85 receptions and 1,125 yards receiving on 117 targets. With wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (76 targets last season) now in Baltimore, Kelce is solidified as the Chiefs number one primary target in the passing game. At 6’5” and 255 lbs, Kelce is another Gronk and an ideal candidate in the red zone. Last season he was only targeted 15 times inside the 20, scoring three times; fantasy owners can expect head coach Andy Reid to change those numbers this season.

The Steelers have a not-so-secret weapon in wide receiver Martavis Bryant and even though he’s set to return to action this preseason, he still lingering around the 4th round, coming off the board as the 23rd fantasy receiver in PPR. That may be too rich to take as your number one or two receiver, if you go running backs early, but if you can get him as your third receiver I love his upside. Playing opposite Antonio Brown, he is going to see plenty of favorable coverage and his electrifying speed is just a big play in the making. In 2015 Bryant played in 11 games totaling 50 receptions for 765 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns on 92 targets with most of his damage coming in week 6 through week 15; good enough for the number 10 fantasy receiver (in PPR) during that stretch. He’s a fantasy monster in wait and worth the grab.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 18th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

The Halfback Attack

Another Friday night and with nothing better to do than talk fantasy football, let’s jump right in with a couple of more players I like in 2017.

I no longer believe the hype, because I believe the talk around Vikings camp is truth; rookie running back Dalvin Cook will be their starting running back sooner than later. Cook ran with the starters through most of the first half in the team’s second exhibition game and looking at his numbers; 7 rushes for 40 yards rushing, 1 catch for another 10 yards. Cook was taken early in the 2nd round in this year’s NFL draft and it looks like he be paying dividends early this season. He’s no secret now and he’ll continue to rise in fantasy drafts, in my opinion he’s a solid low-end RB2 with plenty of upside. Fantasy owners should still find him available in the 3rd round of most drafts.

The Packers new running back Ty Montgomery was a big surprise last season, especially since he entered the season as one of the team’s wide receivers. Montgomery proved to be more than capable and pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He would have been the number 10 fantasy running back from weeks 13 to week 17 last year. He’ll have his work cut out this season, since defenses will now game plan with him as a running back. Nonetheless, I like Montgomery very much this season, in particular in PPR formats. He’s a capable runner and a solid pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016). Montgomery didn’t see his running back duties increase until mid-season last year and this season he’s bulked up some and could see those duties increased even more in 2017. What I like most about Montgomery is the offense he is a part of that features quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We are hearing good things about Montgomery this camp and that has the potential to lead to greater volume. Montgomery may be going a little early for my taste (as early as the 2nd round in some leagues), but beyond the 3rd round the value is there with this pick.

The Giants 2nd year running back Paul Perkins  is currently positioned to enter this season as the team’s starter. Last season there were some flashes and his strong week 17 finish, toting the rock 21 times for 102 yards was eye-opening. Thus far Perkins hasn’t stopped the presses in camp, but I believe the former UCLA Bruin has the talent and skills to succeed at this level. If he can run with the job, there should be enough volume for Perkins to finish in the top 20 (RB2). So far what I am seeing in fantasy drafts, Perkins in going around the 6th and 7th rounds (depending on league size) which about where I would take him, maybe even a round later. The Giants have a full backfield and nothing is guaranteed at this time, so any earlier might be a little too risky, but any later than the 7th and that’s value that’s hard to pass up.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega