FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 13th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers (Week 10)

There are weeks when your fantasy studs perform big and there are weeks where they give you what you need to survive, then there are the weeks, where you wish that Sunday could start all over. Those are the days, your studs become lineup killers and these were some from Week 10;

QB-Tyrod Taylor; The Bills starter had a rough outing on Sunday completing just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards with a pick before being benched. Taylor had just completed a nice three game run before his struggles on Sunday. Going forward he’s still a QB2 in most formats, until further notice.

RB-Doug Martin; The Buccaneers running back struggled to find any openings on Sunday rushing for just 51 yards on 20 carries (2.55 yards per carry). The good news for owners, Martin saw 20 carries and hopefully there won’t be too many more of these games ahead.

RB-Jordan Howard; The Bears running back finished as the No.47 fantasy RB for the week totaling just 54 yards rushing on 15 carries. It was not a good day for Jordan, but his 15 carries were a low number since week 2. Fantasy owners can expect that to change going forward with better results.

WR-Marvin Jones Jr; The Lions wide receiver was held to just one catch for 22 yards receiving on 2 targets. All were season lows for Jones and coming after a three game run where he averaged better than 6 catches and over 100 receiving yards per game. Look for Jones a solid WR2 to bounce back next week against the Bears.

TE-Jack Doyle; After four straight weeks with at least 6 receptions and 44 yards receiving and averaging double-digit fantasy points, the Colts tight end laid an egg on Sunday. Doyle finished with just 2 catches for 9 yards. It was a tough day for owners, but it was just one game.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 12th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

What I Learned from Week 5

(Quick Takes)

There’s a Change Coming in Minnesota.

After watching the Vikings game on Monday night and in particular Quarterback Sam Bradford, a change has to be coming. Bradford just didn’t look right from the get go and was eventually replaced by backup Case Keenum. It may have been a temporary change for their week 5 matchup with Chicago, but I believe the more may end up being more permanent. Bradford is obviously not healthy and while the team has not come out with any official announcement, its obvious Monday’s attempt suffered a setback and one that could have Bradford sideline for an extended period (I believe).

The Packers may have found a running game.

While injuries are never good for any team, the injury to Packers running back Ty Montgomery may have come with a silver lining. Since Montgomery went down, the team has had a chance to look at their rookies, in particular running back Aaron Jones. Since he was inserted he’s rushed for over 170 yards and averaged almost 5.5 yards per carry. The Packers have to like what they see and what they’ve found.

Gordon could just be getting started.

The Chargers running back Melvin Gordon broke out with a huge 163 total yards and 2 touchdowns week 5 performance against the Giants. Gordon also averaged 5 yards per carry and added 6 receptions. With a week 6 matchup against the Raiders 25th ranked run defense, Gordon nmght just be getting started.

Ram’s offense struggled, but better days ahead

The Rams offense ran out of gas on Sunday scoring just 10 points after averaging 35.5 points per game through the first four weeks. We'll just chalk this one up to divisional rivalry; both of these teams know each other all too well. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and company could be in for a tough matchup this week against Jacksonville, but they'll bounce back with a week 7 matchup against Arizona

Deshaun Watson: "that kid is real good"

We've seen this star shine for several weeks now, so Sunday night should not have come as a surprise. Through five weeks Watson is the No.2 fantasy QB with 12 passing touchdowns (2nd most) and he leads all quarterbacks with 179 yards rushing; that kid is good.

Martin already looks good.

After having to sit out three games due to suspension, in his return to action in Week 5 the Buccaneers running back Doug Martin already looks good. Martin rushed for 74 yards and a score without missing a beat and looks ready to return to his featured back role; time to drop Jacquizz Rodgers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

Last week kind of an easy pick with Green Bay handling the Bears fairly easily; actually took the Packers in my survivor. Although the Pack won it was costly losing Montgomery (ribs) and Adams (concussion). Of course Rodgers was on point, but with a full quota of receivers (Nelson, Cobb, and Adams), there wasn't enough looks for Geronimo Allison to go around (whiff). Bennett did his usual cameo, but for maybe a few more yards while Montgomery's shortened evening hurt owners. Not much to speak about when it comes to the Bears. Jordan Howard (Thunder) salvaged his night with a late score. Tarik Cohen (Lightning) flickered some, and even Kendall Wright ended up being playable.

Well that was last week, so let's talk about tonight's contest;

"Mike Evans should have a big night on Thurs night against the No.32 ranked pass defense. He's definitely a Week 5 stud!" @FantsySprtsHome

The Patriots are surrending north of 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in just three games. Another concerning factor is the high percentage (69.7) of completions the secondary is allowing. There's little doubt Winston and company will test the corners and attack them with his big target Mike Evans. It's hard to imagine Evans not getting into the endzone tonight at least once.

"You can expect Tom Brady to be busy tonight playing keep up or catch up. Even on the road he'll be a Top-3 fantasy QB this week" @FantsySprtsHome

And while the Pat's defense is lacking against the pass, the Buccaneers are not far behind. Only the Patriots allow more yards passing per game, but a big factor to watch is the lack of pressure. The Bucs have only sacked opposing quarterbacks once in three games; yes once! If Brady is given time, he's like a mad scientist and will completely dissect the defense. Expect the mad doctor to go operating tonight, especially since the run game is lacking.

"Doug Martin returns to action tonight, but don't discount Jacq Rodgers. He'll still have plenty of flex appeal tonight!" @FantsySprtsHome

While the Patriots are bad against the pass, they are not much better against the run, ranked 26th. A notable stat, the Patriots also allow 5.1 yards per carry. I'm sure we're going to see Martin sprinkled into this one, but I would be surprised if Rodgers didn't log at least 12-15 carries tonight, and haul in a couple of passes.

"After seeing what Watson was able to do against this defense, Winston owners have to be salivating; Top-10 fantasy QB this week!"

Two weeks ago the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson had a terrific game against the Patriots, passing for 300 yards and tossing two scores. Tonight the 3rd year Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters his matchup against the same Patriots defense with some pretty good weapons of his own. If experience counts for anything, we just may see Winston a very mobile and capable QB in his own right take his game to the next level; fantasy owners get your popcorn ready.

"Gotta love Patriots RB-James White tonight in a game where Brady is likely to throw as many as 50 passes!" @FantsySprtsHome

If numbers mean anything, the Patriots defense is going to have a rough go at it trying to slow down and stop the Buccaneers offense. That being the case, it just may be up to quarterback Tom Brady to keep his team in this one throughout and hopefully close the game on a late drive. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Brady and company will likely have to rely on his arm. Through 4 games the running game (ranked 20th in the league) has not been there averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Brady, the No.1 fantasy QB this season, through 4 games is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game; tonight he's got a great chance at surpassing his average with ease.

"DJax has been quiet much of the early part of this season, but tonight could be his breakout game!" @FantsySprtsHome

Currently DeSean Jackson is ranked outside the Top-50 wide receivers with just 9 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. His long this season is just 32 yards; not exactly what you would expect from a burner like DJax. The Patriots secondary is going to have to account for Evans all night, giving Jackson opportunity. Jackson will also have the good fortune of attacking a secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards (3rd most in the league), including 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more (tied for 2nd most).

Those are My Takes!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

As I have already mentioned before, I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this pre-season and by this time that number has doubled. And through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’m still making plenty of mental notes (and of course several now on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 24 hours from kick-off, I am sharing even more of my thoughts and two cents (and yes I can make change of a nickel).

Fantasy Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

It seems a lot of the discussion at the top of fantasy drafts centers around running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell; with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension looming he’s falling in drafts. Even LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon get some ink, but the Falcons Devonta Freeman gets little press. Freeman has only finished 6th and 1st in fantasy (PPR) scoring for running backs the past two seasons. The Falcons return 21 of 22 starters this season; I think Freeman easily duplicates what he’s already done. Fantasy owners won’t go wrong taking him as a Top-5 fantasy back this season.

Todd Gurley

This kid is just too good to be held back, no matter how bad his offense plays. Last season the Rams offense was bad, but despite running back Todd Gurley finished as the No.15 fantasy RB in PPR. I don’t expect great improvements from the Rams, but under new first year head coach Sean McVay, I’m sure he can find more ways to utilize Gurley and get more productivity. I like Gurley to bounce back from last season and crack the Top-10 in 2017.

Ameer Abdullah

I am actually excited to see a healthy Abdullah back this season; missed 14 games last season to injury. The Lions didn’t spend a 2nd round pick in 2015 on running back Ameer Abdullah for nothing. He’s not going to be a bell-cow this season, but at 5’9” and 203 pounds Abdullah is a quick, strong, and versatile back that will see plenty of action in the passing game as well as the ground game. I don’t think it’s out of reach to see him finish around 220 touches (carries + catches) this season giving him a good chance at finishing well inside the Top-20 fantasy Running Backs. He’s being drafted well outside the Top-20 now making him a nice value at his current 5.06 ADP (according to FFC).

Doug Martin

Who is my favorite Martin or my favorite running back in Tampa Bay? Either way I’ll take running back Doug Martin when I can get him. Suspended for the first three games this season, I am finding little trouble taking him as my 3rd or 4th running back off the boards in the 5th to 7th rounds in some drafts. He’s worked hard in the offseason and has looked good in the preseason. I’m expecting a big year for Martin in 2017; it will just get started a little later. His current ADP of 5.01 (according to FFC) is in line, but I’m saying if you have to ability to take him any later he’ll be well worth the pick.

Robert Kelley

The Redskins starting running back Robert Kelley seems to be the quiet man in Washington with all of the Samaje Perine talk. I’m sure the rookie is good and he’ll be good, but have we forgotten all about Kelley? The 2nd year former undrafted free agent rookie out of Tulane won the starting gig just a year ago and finished as the No.26 fantasy running back (in standard leagues) last season. He also didn’t start until mid-season and from weeks 8 on thru 17 he was the No. 14 fantasy running back in PPR (according to Fantasy Pros). You’re probably not going to break the bank with Kelley, but he has value. He’s looked fine in preseason and should give fantasy owners decent production, especially as the No.27 running back going off the boards (an RB3 in 12-Team PPR leagues) according to FFC.

Jamaal Charles

Now I am probably going to take a lot of heat for this one, which is okay. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong, and sometimes you whiff. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles enters the 2017 campaign expected to backup running back CJ Anderson. I maintain here, that Charles is hands down the more talented back and has enough in his tank to win the job outright. Now’s he’s no young stud and can no longer carry the 20-25 touch workload, but if he can see 15-18 touches consistently this season and hold up, I believe he’s got a real shot at RB2 production. He ran well in his one cameo and even better looked great in pass protection. I am all-in this season with Charles in charge.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up the Wide Receivers

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 23rd 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

We are inching ever so closer to your fantasy draft day or in many cases your next fantasy draft day. As you prepare for your next draft, even with one or more in the books, you can never get enough fantasy info or nuggets.

Now I can honestly say I didn’t pull any of these off the McDonald’s menu, but I will do my best to keep this as informative as I can. And with that, more players I like to add to your fantasy watch list.

The Lions will see the return of a healthy Ameer Abdullah this season (14 games missed last year). Abdullah is a talented runner that will give the Lions backfield a needed boost; team ranked 30th in rushing last season. There’s only been a small sample size of Abdullah since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, but a lot of analysts, including this fan like his opportunity and upside this year. Abdullah should be in line for the majority of the early down work this season, but don’t be fooled he’s more than a capable pass-catching back. You can wait on this kid a few rounds, right now his ADP is 5.07, he’s going off the board as the RB26 (according to FFC).

Another running back that you can wait on for a few rounds is the Saints Mark Ingram. With the arrival and influence of Adrian Peterson Ingram has an ADP of 5.09, going off the board as the RB27 (according to FFC). Last season Ingram played in all 16 games and started 14, finishing with 1,043 yards rushing, 46 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, good enough for the number 10 fantasy running back. Right now he is being greatly undervalued going where he’s currently being drafted, which is why I like Ingram so much.

Even with his three-game suspension to start the season looming, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is making enough noise in camp for me to believe when he returns, he’ll eventually (if not right away) resume his starting duties. Martin is healthy now, coming off an injury-shortened 2016 season, and even though he was not having a great campaign, he was on pace to finish around the RB22 fantasy back. Currently Martin has an ADP of 5.01, the RB23 going off the board (according to FFC), but he has looked very good this preseason and in camp. WE know Martin has upside, finishing as the RB3 in 2015. I am one who believes in his talent and ability and think if you take him this late, there’s plenty of good value here.

Speaking of running back Adrian Peterson, he’s back and with his return there’s a lot of questions and concerns, but this being fantasy football, there’s a lot of hope too. Everyone knows when healthy, All-Day is as good as they come and when healthy he’s a top 10 fantasy running back; top-10 eight times since 2007 (standard leagues according to Fantasydata), including number one in 2012. Peterson is now 32, in a new system, and figures to be in a timeshare with Mark Ingram. His volume is the big question, but there’s little doubt of his talent. I don’t think you can go wrong taking him beyond the 3rd round. Where he’s currently going (ADP of 4.12, the number RB22, according to FFC), puts him around a late RB2 or an early RB3; which is where I like him. He’s a mid-to-late 4th rounder with potential home run upside.

Interesting Late Grabs

There have been quite a few changes in New Orleans in the off-season, but one change that has caught my eye is the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. He joins an offense that has one of the league’s premiere deep ball throwers and accurate passers. Ginn has never really been a high volume receiver, but he is coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 95 targets, averaging 49 receptions. If he can see similar volume this season in New Orleans (last season the Saints number 3 receiver saw 104 targets), he’ll definitely improve his number 47 fantasy receiver from last year. With an ADP of 12.04, going off the board as the WR55, Ginn is virtually free and a late round flier I am high on.

  

Until we see how Jamaal Charles looks on the field, the best we can invest in him is a late round dart throw. He’s healthy now, but the Broncos have yet to turn him loose, so there should be pause. I’d expect when he hits the field, the needle will move a great deal in either direction; shoot up the draft board or go undrafted. If you are drafting before Saturday, he’s one of my favorite picks as a late or last round flier. The current word around the watercooler is he’s not expected to see a high volume of work this season (assuming he makes the team), maybe 8-10 touches, but I believe all this could change if he has success. And the biggest thing currently, with the exception of the team’s 6th round draft selection running back DeAngelo Henderson, there’s not a whole lot going on with the team’s running game.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 22nd, 2016
Saturday Evening edition

Week 7 Fantasy Notes & Predictions

Tomorrow, week 7 kicks off early with another London matchup featuring the Rams and the Giants. I'm pretty sure Todd Gurley owners are starting to get a little restless. In six games this season Gurley has yet to top 100 yards rushing, but a new continent could be the difference tomorrow. The Giants have been pretty good this season against the run, but they do allow more than 3.8 yards per carry this season and have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past two weeks. Perhaps maybe some jet-lag or overseas distractions could kick in and take their toll as well. With that said, I like Gurley to finally top the century mark and reach the endzone.

The Falcons will be playing host to the visiting Chargers and for quarterback Matt Ryan that will likely mean his 5th game with more than 300 yards passing in seven starts. Ryan leads all players in fantasy scoring and has been huge this season with 2,075 yards passing and 15 touchdowns in six games. The Chargers secondary have had their struggles this season allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and nearly 300 yards passing per game. Tomorrow could be another long Sunday on the road for the Bolts defense. With Ryan throwing for a bunch tomorrow, fantasy owners should keep their eyes on wide receiver Mohamed Sanu; could be a nice day for the Falcon wideout.

With Redskins starting tight end Jordan Reed expected to be sidelined again this week, fantasy owners looking for a plug and play option should consider Vernon Davis. Davis will get the start and facing the Lions defense he'll have a good shot at scoring against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and 7 touchdowns (most in the league). Davis is likely a boom or bust option for redraft leagues, but has great value in DFS.

The Buccaneers return from their bye to face the visiting Niners and with Doug Martin still sidelined, running back Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start. Rodgers carried the load in week 5 with 30 rushing attempts for 101 yards and added 5 receptions for another 28 yards receiving. This week he matches up against the Niners defense that has allowed 3rd most fantasy  points to opposing running backs, including 9 rushing touchdowns (2nd most in the league). Rodgers is a borderline RB1/RB2 this week and is in line for another productive Sunday. He's also a great value play in DFS.

That's my take for Week 7.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2016
Wednesday Evening Edition

Waiver Wire Wednesday

It's week 3 of the fantasy season and it's time to start looking for needed help for those owners that have yet to get out of the gate at 0-2. For those of you that have fared a little better, there's always room to improve and here are some names that can offer the needed relief.

The Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta showed up in week 2. He was probably a forgotten name during most drafts, but after his 9 receptions on 12 targets for 102 yards last Sunday owners will remember him again. Pitta had missed all of last season and had only played in 7 games in the prior two seasons before that. He's certainly has the size and familiarity with his quarterback and is definitely Wire Worthy this week.

In Carolina the Panthers are facing a change in their backfield with running back Jonathan Stewart expected to miss time and the next man up could be running back Fozzy Whittaker. The word is committee coming out of Carolina, but Whittaker looks like the best bet. Owners that are thin in their backfield may get some temporary relief, but this is not a long term solution with the Stewart likely to return sooner than later.

After his big passing performance (374 yards in the air) in week 2 on Thursday night quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely one of the hottest players on the waiver wire this week. Fitz is loaded with talented receivers all around him and with a nice complimentary pass catching workhorse in the backfield, he's a potential top10 QB and a favorite of mine going forward. 

In Tampa, if starting running back Doug Martin is sidelined his back up Charles Sims will be he next man up, but could be a tough play in week 3. Sims is more of the prototypical size for running back at 6'0" and 215 yards, but he's yet to do much this season and facing the Rams on Sunday owners will need to proceed with caution.

Just before the season started there was some headlines in Baltimore when the Ravens released running back Justin Forsett, but then days later he was resigned. Forsett was reinserted as the starter when the season began, but his slow start may have landed him into fantasy free agency. Last week he came up with 17 touches and while his fantasy numbers are lagging at the moment he could be working his way back; definitely wire consideration.

That's my take,

~David G. Ortega

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

September 4th, 2015
Friday

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.

Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.

My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.

With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.

Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!

After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.

With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain. 

Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL). 

In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.

My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.

~David G

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 16th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Football Heroes

Week 2 Studs

If there is a plaque to be handed out, if there is a vote to be cast, Eagles running back Darren Sproles gets my vote and deserves the plaque for Week 2 Fantasy Stud. His Monday night performance alone saved my butt in several leagues; 7 receptions for 152 receiving yards and oh yeah, 4 carries for 26 more yards on the ground with a score. Now that’s production from the Tank.

Like Sproles in week 2, another running back playing in Monday night’s contest that displayed his studly-ness was the Colts Ahmad Bradshaw. Healthy in 2014 and getting a fair-share chance to contribute Bradshaw, although greatly over-shadowed by Sproles did hold his own. The Colts number two (and maybe soon to be number one) ball carrier tallied 18 touches (13 carries, 5 receptions) on the evening for 96 total yards. Bradshaw also found the end-zone twice; an outstanding and complete performance for the Colts running back.

And not to be left out or forgotten, Buccaneers running back Bobby Rainey provided a stellar performance on Sunday in a losing cause. Rainey filling in for the injured Doug Martin, was more than admirable, he was scintillating. Rainey carried the ball 22 times for 144 yards on the ground, including a long run of 31 yards. He also displayed his versatility catching 3 passes for another 30 yards. Even though Rainey did not find the end zone, he was still an outstanding fantasy stud.

Going forward, Sproles and Bradshaw need to be in lineups. Even as the proverbial number two in Philly and Indy respectively, both backs are part of the game plan and will see their share of touches. In Tampa, even with the prospect of Martin returning in week 3, Rainey needs to be owned. Until we see the dynamic of the two on the field together (not necessarily at the same time) owners should temper their expectations and see how Rainey’s role plays out. He definitely has some value as a flex in deeper leagues, but has the potential of being in play week in and week out.

That’s my early takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012  

By the Numbers

One thing you learn as a sports fan, when you follow the game as I do, numbers seldom lie. It’s not an exact science, but rather a good measuring stick when trying to predict the outcome of matchups. As I said it’s not exact, but the numbers come from somewhere like tendency, consistency, and repetitiveness, all good points a fantasy owner can use to make tough decisions.

With week 10 under way and the brunt of the schedule in less than 24 hours, here are some of my fantasy favorites for Sunday; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Matthew Stafford;
The Lions quarterback has been looking more and more like the 2011 version over the past several weeks, completing better than 65% of his passes in his last three starts. Stafford is also averaging 300 yards passing over the same span. And even though he did not toss a touchdown last week, he was highly efficient completing 67% of his throws and setting up four easy rushing touchdowns. He’s got a tough matchup this week against the Vikings, but their secondary allows better than 60% completions and has surrendered 14 touchdowns this season. Stafford playing much better now, so he should be solid on Sunday.

Quarterback Josh Freeman;
The Buccaneers play caller has been on a roll for the past four weeks throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Freeman is playing exceptionally well and has a great tandem in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to target on the outside. Only recently has he been looking more over the middle for his tight end Dallas Clark. Completing just 57% of his throws in his last four starts Freeman is stretching the field averaging well over 16 yards a completion. His 1,257 yards passing in his last four starts is an average of 314 yards passing per game. The Chargers don’t do a great job getting to the quarterback (just 13 sacks) and allow better than 63% passes completed. Freeman should give the Chargers secondary plenty of fits this Sunday.

Wide Receiver Brian Hartline;
Hartline leads the club with 41 receptions and 662 yards receiving this season. His 71 targets ranks among the leaders in the league. Hartline is far and away quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go to receiver, but the crafty possession receiver has yet to find the end zone in his last four starts. Hartline is coming off a nice 100-yard receiving effort last week (his third of the season) and his 12 targets last Sunday tied for his second most this season. He’s matchup against the leagues number 26th ranked pass defense (Titans) this week that has also allowed 20 touchdowns; expect a lot more targets once again and a visit to pay dirt.


For help in deeper leagues; possible sleepers.…

Running back Bernard Pierce;
The Ravens play host the Raiders this Sunday, who last week were torched by the Buccaneers Doug Martin for over 250 yards on the ground. With a premiere back like Ray Rice, the Ravens can be expected to pound the Raiders mercilessly. It can be expected and is likely that the Ravens will also use back up runner Bernard Pierce to pound the Raiders into submission. The Raiders allow better than 4.5 per carry and could have a tough time keeping this one close. The Bucs ran it nearly 30 times last Sunday against the Raiders and we could very well see the Ravens do the same. Pierce is likely to see some extended duty late in the game this week, when it’s time to put this one to bed. The Raiders have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so it would not surprise to see Pierce get a cheap one late.


By David Ortega