Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012
By the Numbers
One thing you learn as a sports fan, when you follow the game as I do, numbers seldom lie. It’s not an exact science, but rather a good measuring stick when trying to predict the outcome of matchups. As I said it’s not exact, but the numbers come from somewhere like tendency, consistency, and repetitiveness, all good points a fantasy owner can use to make tough decisions.
With week 10 under way and the brunt of the schedule in less than 24 hours, here are some of my fantasy favorites for Sunday; By The Numbers…
Quarterback Matthew Stafford;
The Lions quarterback has been looking more and more like the 2011 version over the past several weeks, completing better than 65% of his passes in his last three starts. Stafford is also averaging 300 yards passing over the same span. And even though he did not toss a touchdown last week, he was highly efficient completing 67% of his throws and setting up four easy rushing touchdowns. He’s got a tough matchup this week against the Vikings, but their secondary allows better than 60% completions and has surrendered 14 touchdowns this season. Stafford playing much better now, so he should be solid on Sunday.
Quarterback Josh Freeman;
The Buccaneers play caller has been on a roll for the past four weeks throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Freeman is playing exceptionally well and has a great tandem in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to target on the outside. Only recently has he been looking more over the middle for his tight end Dallas Clark. Completing just 57% of his throws in his last four starts Freeman is stretching the field averaging well over 16 yards a completion. His 1,257 yards passing in his last four starts is an average of 314 yards passing per game. The Chargers don’t do a great job getting to the quarterback (just 13 sacks) and allow better than 63% passes completed. Freeman should give the Chargers secondary plenty of fits this Sunday.
Wide Receiver Brian Hartline;
Hartline leads the club with 41 receptions and 662 yards receiving this season. His 71 targets ranks among the leaders in the league. Hartline is far and away quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go to receiver, but the crafty possession receiver has yet to find the end zone in his last four starts. Hartline is coming off a nice 100-yard receiving effort last week (his third of the season) and his 12 targets last Sunday tied for his second most this season. He’s matchup against the leagues number 26th ranked pass defense (Titans) this week that has also allowed 20 touchdowns; expect a lot more targets once again and a visit to pay dirt.
For help in deeper leagues; possible sleepers.…
Running back Bernard Pierce;
The Ravens play host the Raiders this Sunday, who last week were torched by the Buccaneers Doug Martin for over 250 yards on the ground. With a premiere back like Ray Rice, the Ravens can be expected to pound the Raiders mercilessly. It can be expected and is likely that the Ravens will also use back up runner Bernard Pierce to pound the Raiders into submission. The Raiders allow better than 4.5 per carry and could have a tough time keeping this one close. The Bucs ran it nearly 30 times last Sunday against the Raiders and we could very well see the Ravens do the same. Pierce is likely to see some extended duty late in the game this week, when it’s time to put this one to bed. The Raiders have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so it would not surprise to see Pierce get a cheap one late.
By David Ortega
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