FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 10

Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 10

After a big week in fantasy last Sunday, my week 9 lineup did some big damage and moved me back inside the top 20. My team finished the week with 131 points led by a couple of fantastic fantasy performances. 

The Lions running back Mikel Leshoure posted 25 fantasy points behind a three touchdown effort last week. The Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall was also huge with three scores, adding 9 grabs for 122 yards receiving on his way to 39 fantasy points. These were the anchors of my huge week 9 run.

With my team on the move, there’s no time to let up!

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
It’s not exactly what you would call an ideal matchup for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, but he’s had a hot hand of late and playing in dome this week he may as well be at home. Stafford has been throwing up some nice fantasy numbers over the last couple of weeks and he looks to be in a groove. Inside a dome this Sunday, I like him to have a big game.

Running Backs:
I am already down a running back this week with Rashad Jennings starting on Thursday, and he did not play very well. I liked his matchup at home against a Colts team not historically a good run defensive team, but Thursday night they kept Jennings under wraps.

My other ball carrier this week is Frank Gore. The Niners ball of thunder will face the Rams 13th ranked run defense this week. Yards are going to be tough this week, but at home I like Gore’s chances of punching a couple in this week against his divisional rival. While the Rams do a decent job of slowing the ground game, they have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns this season.

Wide Receivers:
My good hands folks for this week are the Chargers wide receiver Malcom Floyd and the Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline. 

Starting with Floyd, he’s facing the Bucs secondary that is ranked last in the league versus the pass. The Bucs allow well over 300 yards in the air this season and have surrendered 13 touchdowns. The Buccaneers are also allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers.

On the other side, Hartline has a little more challenging matchup facing the Titans 27th ranked pass defense; just a little. Hartline has been the Dolphins best receiver this season (41 receptions, 662 yards receiving) and quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go-to-guy. Facing the Titans this week could be Hartline’s ticket to a return trip to the end zone. Hartline has only one touchdown this season and that came back in week 4. The Titans secondary has allowed 20 touchdowns this season and give up the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Tight End:
Quite simply the Patriots surrender the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and the Bills tight end Scott Chandler has been one of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best scoring threats with 4 touchdowns this season. Back in week 4 against the Patriots, Chandler recorded 4 catches for 62 yards and scored twice. He’s a good be to at least cash one catch in for six this Sunday.

Place Kicker:
The Seahawks should have an easy time moving the ball down the field against the Jets, but could sputter in the red zone with a shaky passing game. Place kicker Steven Hauschka could see lots of opportunities at some short kicks this week.

Team Defense:
I am just playing the numbers here. The Titans offense gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing defenses and with their week-10 matchup on the road, I like the Dolphins defense. Cameron Wake and company should be all over quarterback Jake Locker this week and could get a few sacks and possibly cause a few turnovers.


These are my picks for week 10.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012  

By the Numbers

One thing you learn as a sports fan, when you follow the game as I do, numbers seldom lie. It’s not an exact science, but rather a good measuring stick when trying to predict the outcome of matchups. As I said it’s not exact, but the numbers come from somewhere like tendency, consistency, and repetitiveness, all good points a fantasy owner can use to make tough decisions.

With week 10 under way and the brunt of the schedule in less than 24 hours, here are some of my fantasy favorites for Sunday; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Matthew Stafford;
The Lions quarterback has been looking more and more like the 2011 version over the past several weeks, completing better than 65% of his passes in his last three starts. Stafford is also averaging 300 yards passing over the same span. And even though he did not toss a touchdown last week, he was highly efficient completing 67% of his throws and setting up four easy rushing touchdowns. He’s got a tough matchup this week against the Vikings, but their secondary allows better than 60% completions and has surrendered 14 touchdowns this season. Stafford playing much better now, so he should be solid on Sunday.

Quarterback Josh Freeman;
The Buccaneers play caller has been on a roll for the past four weeks throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Freeman is playing exceptionally well and has a great tandem in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to target on the outside. Only recently has he been looking more over the middle for his tight end Dallas Clark. Completing just 57% of his throws in his last four starts Freeman is stretching the field averaging well over 16 yards a completion. His 1,257 yards passing in his last four starts is an average of 314 yards passing per game. The Chargers don’t do a great job getting to the quarterback (just 13 sacks) and allow better than 63% passes completed. Freeman should give the Chargers secondary plenty of fits this Sunday.

Wide Receiver Brian Hartline;
Hartline leads the club with 41 receptions and 662 yards receiving this season. His 71 targets ranks among the leaders in the league. Hartline is far and away quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go to receiver, but the crafty possession receiver has yet to find the end zone in his last four starts. Hartline is coming off a nice 100-yard receiving effort last week (his third of the season) and his 12 targets last Sunday tied for his second most this season. He’s matchup against the leagues number 26th ranked pass defense (Titans) this week that has also allowed 20 touchdowns; expect a lot more targets once again and a visit to pay dirt.


For help in deeper leagues; possible sleepers.…

Running back Bernard Pierce;
The Ravens play host the Raiders this Sunday, who last week were torched by the Buccaneers Doug Martin for over 250 yards on the ground. With a premiere back like Ray Rice, the Ravens can be expected to pound the Raiders mercilessly. It can be expected and is likely that the Ravens will also use back up runner Bernard Pierce to pound the Raiders into submission. The Raiders allow better than 4.5 per carry and could have a tough time keeping this one close. The Bucs ran it nearly 30 times last Sunday against the Raiders and we could very well see the Ravens do the same. Pierce is likely to see some extended duty late in the game this week, when it’s time to put this one to bed. The Raiders have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so it would not surprise to see Pierce get a cheap one late.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

October 1st, 2012

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Nicks Looking Shaky This Season

No question Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks was a high value draft pick in most fantasy drafts, but his injury woes are making fantasy owners pay dearly. With the prospect of possibly missing week 5, Nicks has only one strong showing this season in four games (maybe five now). He’s a solid fantasy play when healthy, so owners will just have to ride out the storm and hope he gets right soon.

Hartline has the Numbers

The Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline may not have the flash or the name to draw much attention to fantasy owners, but he certainly has more than enough numbers to make his argument. He’s relatively unknown and unproven, so consistency and reliability will have to be a wait and see, but with 48 targets this season (ranked 3^rd in the league) make his chances look promising. With all those targets, Hartline still only has 25 catches and just one score; he’s not ready for primetime, but he appears to be a strong flex option or low-end WR2 in deeper leagues.

Roddy Still the Big Man on Campus

With all the hype surrounding the beastly phenom wide receiver Julio Jones, this preseason Roddy White was taking a back seat in most fantasy football watercooler conversations. It’s safe to say this elite receiver will not be taking a back seat to anyone this season. As good as Jones is and will be, does not mean Roddy will stop being elite; as he has shown through four games this season (27 receptions, 413 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns). White is still a solid WR1 and should be considered such the rest of the way.

The Marshall Plan is Working

If you drafted wide receiver Brandon Marshall high this fantasy season, you were hoping to see what you just saw on Monday night against the Cowboys. Teamed with his old quarterback (Jay Cutler) it’s go for broke time with Marshall, and if this was your plan it could be working. With 23 receptions, over 350 yards, and 2 touchdowns, Marshall could be well on his way to his best season yet.

Dez Bryant Still Up and Down

The Cowboys big receiver Dez Bryant is capable of playing big and he did have a nice night statistically in Monday night’s loss (8 receptions, 105 yards receiving), but too many drops kept a good night from being great. That’s been Bryant’s problem and something that appears he’ll need to continue to work at growing out of. Bryant remains a very low WR2 option in fantasy, but has the potential of being much more.

Witten Finally Wakes Up

It came much too late in the Cowboys blowout loss to the Bears Monday night, but for fantasy owners it was a nice sight to see tight end Jason Witten involved in the passing game. This one was well out of hand before Witten did his biggest damage, but quarterback Tony Romo was targeting his old favorite early and often. With all the drops the Cowboys receivers had Monday night, Witten probably remains Romo most reliable and steady option; look for this involvement trend to continue going forward.

By David Ortega