July 10th, 2009 2:37pm PSTFriday Football Diary
Dear Diary
This year’s offseason has been anything but dull and so far I can’t see it getting quiet any time soon. With so much drama following the “Brett Favre” story in Minnesota and now the recent developments in Denver, my goodness this is a whole season before the season.
It seems I can never get enough football, so while I continue to watch the Favre saga eventually take us to his return to football to play for the Vikes, I will also eye carefully the Marshall development in Denver. Sure the kid is a talent, but his request for more money is just bad timing and I would have to believe the best move for Denver is to trade the all-pro receiver.
Not quite the start for the McDaniel’s regime, trading away it’s two best players, but if they can get a player (like Boldin) in return for Brandon Marshall, in the long term this move could make sense. Looking around the league, it’s really hard to see where the Broncos could deal, but stranger things have happened.
With all that is taking place, we are now about 12 weeks until kickoff and counting. Continuing my look at all the NFL teams around the league recognizing those players that figure to be relevant this season in fantasy football, this week I will feature the AFC East in my weekly spot-light “Fantasy Preview”
Fantasy Preview
(Offense only)
The AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Last season the Bills were short on fantasy players as their passing game disappeared into mediocrity. This offseason the team made a big move with the acquisition of Terrell Owens to catapult their passing game to the forefront, or least Bills fans hope. The move should pay some considerable dividends and resurrect some fantasy life to Orchard Park.
Quarterback-Now that Losman is gone, this will be Trent Edwards’ team. Equipped with a big time pass catcher in Owens, Edwards figures to enjoy his best season yet. He won’t be a pro-bowler, but could be a starter for fantasy owners in 12-14 team leagues.
Running Backs-With an improved passing game and a reduced suspension, the Bill’s running back Marshawn Lynch should rebound this season as a strong RB2 fantasy pick, following a disappointing 2008 campaign. Running back Fred Jackson is going to figure in the mix some especially PPR leagues, but otherwise may only be worth drafting as insurance for Lynch owners.
Wide Receivers-Now that T.O. is a Bill, the receiver that to most likely benefit is wideout Lee Evans. The former number one receiver will likely take the back seat to Owens, but could be a monster sleeper in 2009. Evans kind of fell of the map in 2008 finishing with just 63 catches (but he did reach 1,000-yards). James Hardy and Roscoe Parrish lack the consistency to make any kind of a difference in fantasy, but Josh Reed could worth consideration as a bye week filler.
Tight ends-The Bills did not retain the services of Robert Royal in the offseason, therefore lack any kind of pass receiving threat at the position. With Owens added, the bills strength will be their receivers. Fantasy owners are advised to stay away from any Bill’s tight end.
New England Patriots: Last season the leagues best passing attack in 2007 suffered a major hit with the loss of Brady. His return will mark the return of one of the leagues most awesome aerial assaults. Expect big things from a passing game that set league marks just two seasons ago.
Quarterback-The Patriots and fantasy owners will be happy to see a healthy Tom Brady back under center, as will his two favorite targets (Welker and Moss; aka Salt n Pepper). In 2007 Brady had a record setting season throwing to these two, and while coming off ACL surgery he’s not expected to set records, but owners can expect the leagues three-time MVP to perform as a QB1 fantasy starter.
Running Backs-The Patriots had their struggles in the backfield last season with early injuries to Laurence Maroney and Lamont Jordan, but with the acquisition of Fred Taylor and the return of Ben N’ Jerry’s own Jarvis-Ellis along with the dependable Sammy Morris, the Pats will have a host of backs to share the load. At 33 years of age, Taylor does figure to carry much of a load and with Maroney seeing some time on special teams this offseason, this backfield is quickly shaping into your prototypical RBBC situation. Only in the deepest of leagues will there be any real value here with only the versatile Kevin Faulk (PPR leagues) and Fred Taylor offering any kind of value in 2009.
Wide Receivers-In 2007 with Brady tossing the rock, the Patriots carried two of the leagues very best wideouts in the NFL and fantasy. With Brady back Randy Moss will once again be elevated in many fantasy leagues as one of the leagues top five pass catchers with Welker being strongly considered a top 10 (especially in PPR leagues). Beyond the two starters, the Patriots don’t offer much more for fantasy, although Joey Galloway’s arrival may resurrect a couple of highlight reels, but hardly much more. The former Eagle receiver Greg Lewis, only in his seventh year, brings his afterburners to help spread the field. He could be good for the occasional big game here and there and offers more upside than the aging Galloway as an insurance WR4 for fantasy rosters.
Tight ends-Since McDaniels took over in New England, the tight end had become a forgotten position only averaging 38 receptions each of the last two seasons. Back in 2006 Ben Watson recorded 49 catches, with new play-calling the Pats could once again utilize the talents of Watson. The team seems to be loaded with options, but Watson is likely the safest bet to be productive in 2009.
Miami Dolphins: The 2009 version of the Dolphins are not going to catch anyone by surprise this season. After an impressive 2008 campaign that saw the team unveil its’ diverse play-calling with the “Wildcat” formation, many teams and in particular those within the division should be better prepared.
Quarterback-One of the team’s biggest keys in 2008 was the leadership play of quarterback Chad Pennington. The Dolphins starter is hardly worth a mention as a starter in fantasy, but his consistent and rock solid play will make him a solid QB2 backup in most leagues.
Running Backs-Last season was a bit of a guess as to which back would be the primary go to throughout the season, but as the year wore on it became clear that Ronnie Brown (916 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns) is the team’s number one. Back in 2007 Ronnie Brown was on his way to a monster season before tearing his ACL. Now nearly two years removed from the injury and with an aging Ricky Williams sharing time, 2009 could be a big season for Brown. He’s likely to fall to a mid-level pick, but he’s a solid grab as a RB1 in most leagues.
Wide Receivers-With Pennington under center lacking the big arm, this becomes a weak area for the Dolphin’s offense as well as for fantasy owners. Last season wide receiver Tedd Ginn Jr was expected to rise above the rest, but fell miserably short for fantasy owners. Greg Camarillo is a nice Welker-type, but the fish hardly throw the ball enough for him to have any substantial value. Likely Davone Bess and Ginn Jr will emerge as one and two for the Phins, but neither will be a legitimate starter for fantasy in 2009, simply because Miami does not throw the ball.
Tight ends-Last season Anthony Fasano emerged as a decent fantasy play early in the season, but his middle of year was filled with much inconsistency and disappointment. With four touchdowns in his last four games, Fasono is likely to be the favorite for fantasy over David Martin, but he’s going to be a low end option in 2009 as is any Dolphin tight end.
New York Jets: The Jets pulled out all the stops last year when they brought in former Packer quarterback Brett Favre and for much of last season the move seemed to have pay dividends. That was until the final five weeks, when the team and offense hit a wall. Eight times in the team’s first 11 games the offense posted at least 26 points. In their last five they top 18 just once.
Quarterback-2009 is going to look like a whole new picture for the Jets. With Favre gone, the team made some aggressive moves during this past offseason’s NFL draft by moving up the board to select Mark Sanchez. The former Trojan only enjoyed one full season of success as the starter at SC and he’ll be a big question mark looking toward the 2009 season. Sanchez posses the tools and some of the intangibles to play at the next level and while it is likely he’ll start for New York this fall, he’s a very risky play in any fantasy league. He’ll have more value in keeper leagues as stock for the future.
Running Backs-With a rookie quarterback and new head coach Rex Ryan who loves smash mouth football, the running game is going to be essential to the team’s 2009 success. With an unhappy Thomas Jones, the team could lean on the younger legs of Leon Washington and newly signed rookie Shonn Greene. With Thomas looking more like the odd-man out right now, it would seem Greene has the inside track to start this fall, but don’t expect that to hinder Washington’s production. Until we hit training camp, this backfield would be better treated as another RBBC for fantasy owners interested.
Wide Receivers-If the Jets rookie quarterback can sustain any level of success this season, with the departure of Laveranues Coles to Cincinnati Jerricho Cotchery could enjoy a significant level of success this season. Brad Smith, David Clowney, and Chansi Stuckey will battle for the 2nd and 3rd receiver, but with Sanchez under center not much will be expected from any of these receivers. Cotchery will offer the best value, but more like a low end WR3 in most fantasy leagues.
Tight ends-With the departure of Chris Baker departed to New England, this paves the way for 2nd year tight end Dustin Keller. Although Keller enjoyed first year success with Brett Favre who is no longer in New York, the Jets tight end figures to be a focal point in 2009 under Ryan’s more conservative offensive approach. With a young quarterback the tight end is most likely to become his best friend. Keller could very easily be a nice sleeper play this season for owners.
Check back every week for more “Friday Football Diary” and more “Fantasy Preview”
