FSH: FANTASY WATCH

November 27th, 2010, Saturday

Fantasy Watch

Sidney Rice: Returning to Form

The Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice finally made his return to action last week and so much for bringing him along slowly; he played in over 45 snaps and had 10 targets last week. Rice’s numbers didn’t jump off the sports pages last week with three catches for 56 yards, but the fact he was able to contribute and play as much as he did is a good sign for things to come.

This week the Vikings face the Washington Redskins and their 29th ranked pass defense. As Rice gets back to game speed he’ll only get better and return to his pro bowl form. This week lends a great matchup to help expedite that process. The Redskins have allowed 18 passing touchdowns and 36 pass plays of 20 yards or more.

If Rice can go another 45 plays this week, there no doubt he will be producing much better numbers. Fantasy owners in deep leagues needing help at the WR spot may want to take a shot with Rice.

Sunday’s projections against the Redskins
(10 targets, 6 receptions, 75 yards passing, 1-touchdowns)

Steven Jackson: Ram Tough and Ready to Run

It’s been a hard fought season thus far for the Rams running back Steven Jackson, but in the team’s ten games this season he has performed well once again. Jackson is averaging four yards per carry with over 800 yards rushing and 243 yards receiving this season. In six games this season “Action” Jackson has total over 100-yards of offense; including an average of 140-yards in his last three road contests.

This Sunday Jackson will travel to Denver to meet the Broncos 31st ranked run defense that is allowing 143.5 yards on the ground per game. The Bronco’s defense has also allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season and 9 run plays of 20 yards or more (tied for 8th worst). For Denver home cooking is not always the answer. Back in week seven the defense was torched for 328 yards on the ground.

The Rams may not have quite the same success, but as long as they can keep this one close, the battering Ram (Jackson) will see plenty of touches and should be able to rack up some yardage. Fantasy owners should start Jackson with lots of confidence.

Sunday’s projections against the Broncos
(115 yards passing, 25 yards receiving, 1- touchdowns)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 26th, 2010 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

My Fantasy Notes: Matchups to Watch

STEVE JOHNSON MATCHES UP WELL WITH STEELERS
The Bills receiver has been playing exceptionally well as of late and has really emerged onto the seen as a bonafide fantasy stud (at least he has over the past several weeks). Johnson a relative unknown coming into the season has made many take notice. Since week seven Johnson ranks third among wide receivers with 53 targets and has caught 35 passes, including five touchdowns. Sunday he’ll draw the league’s 21st rated pass defense that is allowing 65.2% passes completed this season. Recently the Steeler’s secondary has also surrendered an average of 8 receptions, 102 yards to the leading receiver of its’ three last opponents with pass-first mentality (Saints, Bengals, Patriots). On that note the Bills like to throw the ball as well; quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 40 passes per contest in his last five starts. Johnson will see many of those throws.

JACOB TAMME COULD BE A BUSY COLT
The Sunday night matchup between the Chargers and Colts promising to be nothing short of must-see TV, and one play of note to watch will be tight end Jacob Tamme. Since replacing the injured Dallas Clark, Tamme is averaging nearly 12 targets per game and has made the most catching 31 passes for 305 yards with two scores. The Chargers defense is ranked first against the pass, but if there is a weakness in the secondary it could be over the middle. Against their last three opponents (Texans, Titans, Patriots) that unitlize the tight end spot the Chargers have allowed 19 receptions, for 244 yards, and two scores. Tamme should be busy this Sunday.

JOEL DRIESSEN LOOKS LIKE A NICE SLEEPER
With Owen Daniels still nursing his injuries and the healing process coming along slowly, tight end Joel Driessen continues to roll along. Back in week nine Driessen saw a number of balls (8 targets) thrown his direction, but since has seen his chances dip with just seven in his last two starts. Last week (week 11) Driessen rebounded from a poor performance the previous Sunday going 4 (catches) for 4 (targets) for 106 yards and a score. With the Titans in town and Daniels ruled out for Sunday, this could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered. The Titans have been snake-bit by the tight end spot over the past three weeks; (week11) Cooley had 7 grabs for 91 yards, (week 10) Anthony Fasano caught 5 balls for 107 yards and a score, (week 9) and Antonio Gates grabbed 5 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown.

FSH: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

November 25th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

Last week was not our best week, although our fantasy team did not suffer too much damage. With players like DeSean Jackson (5 points) and Percy Harvin (2 points) not living up to the hype, my fantasy team struggled it’s way to 73 total points. It was enough to keep the team locked inside the top ten, but we’ll need big improvement in the coming weeks to reach the leaders.

A few notables and highlights from last weeks picks include a great performance from running back Fred Jackson (24 points) who finished with 116 yards rushing with two touchdowns. Matt Ryan was also a solid start under center adding 20 point s by passing for 253 yards and tossing two scores. We’ll need of this type of production in week 12 if we hope to make another push to the top in the standings.

The well continues to dry, so again we’ll be scrapping the bottom and the sides to see what we can find in the coming weeks, but for the week 12 slate of games here’s what we got;

Here are my picks for week 12….

QB-Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
Since week six, no other quarterback in the NFL has more passing touchdowns than Matt Cassel; he has 14 and just one interception. Cassel is also averaging 19 fantasy points during this stretch. Sunday he’ll face the league’s 30th ranked pass defense and if given the time (has only been sacked 15 times this season) Cassel could have another nice afternoon.
(Projected: 20 fantasy points/ 285 yards passing, 11 rushing yards, two touchdowns)

RB- Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
There’s only one thing to say here, it’s Chris Johnson. The NFL’s leading rusher a year ago is not having quite a 2,000 yard season, but this Sunday will help him to try and get back on track. In his last two games against the Texans Johnson is averaging 174 yards rushing and has scored three times. I am looking for another big game this week.
(Projected: 22 fantasy points/ 115 yards rushing, 5 catches, 55 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Quietly this kid is becoming a fantasy football underground favorite. After “Hardknocks” then being picked up by the Patriots after the Jets let him go, the 5’6” package of dynamite has been a welcomed addition to the New England offense. Woodhead is coming off two solid performances scoring 15 and 19 fantasy points. Against the Lions this week he could make it three in a row.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 55 yards rushing, 5 catches, 35 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Santonio Holmes, New York Jets
Since becoming active with the team in week five, Holmes has gradually evolved into Mark Sanchez’s favorite target; leads the team with 49 targets over that stretch. Last week Holmes brokeout with a big game catching 7 balls for over 100-yards receiving with a couple of scores. He may not be looking at the same production Thursday night, but against the Bengals he’ll do just fine.
(Projected: 15 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 95 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings
We tried one Viking last week why not try another this week? What I liked about Rice’s performance last week; 48 snaps and 56 receiving yards with three catches. With another full week of practice to get the timing down, I would expect more improvement this Sunday.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 5 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you have been following the Bills defense this season you know the tight end position has scored very well more often than not. Last week the Bengals did not take advantage, but with Pittsburgh Big Ben likes his tight end Heath Miller a lot and should take advantage. Miller won’t make many grabs, but he is facing a defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to the tight end.
(Projected: 10 fantasy points/ 4 catches, 40 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons
Picking kickers this season has not been one of my strengths, but in a game (Packers-Falcon) that has the feel of a lot of scoring, I am counting on the Falcon’s kicker Matt Bryant to have plenty of opportunities to add a few points to the board.
(Projected: 9 fantasy points/ two field goals, three extra points)

My Previous starts

Week 1 (Total points-77)
QB Donovan McNabb (WAS)
RB Matt Forte (CHI)
RB Carnell Williams (TB)
WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
WR Jabar Gaffney (DEN)
TE Zach Miller (OAK)
K Joe Nedney (SF)

Week 2 (Total points-68)
QB Michael Vick (PHI)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
WR Nate Washington (TEN)
WR Greg Jennings (GB)
TE Chris Cooley (WAS)
K Nick Folk (NYJ)

Week 3 (Total points-87)
QB Tony Romo (DAL)
RB Darren McFadden
RB Ray Rice (BAL)
WR Austin Collie (IND)
WR Dez Bryant (DAL)
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
K Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

Week 4 (Total points-58)
QB Eli Manning (NYG)
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
RB Frank Gore (SF)
WR Mark Clayton (STL)
WR Brandon Marshall (MIA)
TE John Carlson (SEA)
K Jeff Reed (PIT)

Week 5 (Total Points-72 points)
QB Drew Brees (NO)
RB Steven Jackson (STL)
RB Thomas Jones (KC)
WR Donald Driver (GB)
WR Calvin Johnson (DET)
TE Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
K Mike Nugent (CIN)

Week 6 (Total Points-83 points)
QB Peyton Manning (IND)
RB Ryan Torain (WASH)
RB LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ)
WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
WR Kenny Britt (TEN)
TE Dallas Clark, (IND)
K Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

Week 7 (Total Points-93 points)
QB Philip Rivers (SD)
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)
RB Michael Turner (ATL)
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE Tony Gonzales (ATL)
K Matt Prater (DEN)

Week 8 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Kyle Orton (DEN)
RB Felix Jones (DAL)
RB Jamaal Charles (KC)
WR Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
WR Deion Branch (NE)
TE Tony Moeki (KC)
K Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

Week 9 (Total Points-79 points)
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RB LeSean McCoy (PHI)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Patrick Crayton (SD)
TE Jacob Tamme (IND)
PK Mason Crosby

Week 10 (Total Points-78 points)
QB Joe Flacco (BAL)
RB LeGarrette Blount (TB)
RB Cedric Benson (CIN)
WR Roddy White (ATL)
WR Steve Johnson (BUF)
TE Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
PK Rob Bironas (TEN)

Week 11 (Total Points-73 points)
QB Matt Ryan (ATL)
RB Fred Jackson (BUF)
RB Peyton Hillis (CLE)
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI)
WR Percy Harvin (MIN)
TE Jermaine Gresham (CIN)
PK Dan Carpenter (MIA)

FSH: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (TARGET PRACTICE)

November 24th, 2010, Wednesday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

After 11 weeks of play, there are several players getting a lot of action this season, but topping the boards with 116 targets this season are the Falcons wide receiver Roddy White and the Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens. Both are having great seasons thus far, but there is a significant difference between the two. While they share the same number of chances, White has nearly 20 more catches with 79 receptions with over 1,000 yards this season; that’s 68 percent success. Owens’ 62 receptions (with 897 yards) leave him at 53 percent success.

There’s no question both receivers are scoring well for fantasy owner’s this season, but it makes a huge difference to have a receiver that is actually making the most of the opportunities thrown his way. In Owens’ case, owners are fortunate he gets as much attention as he does.

Another wide out that has been very efficient this season is the Colts Reggie Wayne (71 receptions, 865 yards, 4 touchdowns). With 110 targets this season his 71 snags are an effective 65 percent success.

Here are more notables with their success level;

Steve Johnson (52 catches, 728-yds, 9-Tds) 71 targets/73.2% success
Marques Colston (62 catches, 705-yds, 4-Tds) 89 targets/69.6% success
White (79 catches, 1,017-yds, 7-Tds) 116 targets/68.1% success
Wayne (71 catches, 865-yds, 4-Tds) 110 targets/64.5% success
Greg Jennings (46 catches, 703-yds, 9-Tds) 76 targets/60.5% success
Terrell Owens (62 catches, 897 yards, 8-Tds) 116 targets/53.4% success
Brandon Lloyd (54 catches, 1,046-yds, 7-Tds) 98 targets/55.0% success

More Fantasy Notes:

Not to be ever overlooked, fantasy owners have to keep a close eye on those ball carriers sneaking out of the backfield. This season perhaps the most effective weapon in the Eagles passing game (for fantasy owners in PPR leagues) may not be DeSean Jackson, but could be running back LeSean McCoy. The Eagles tailback not only ranks 6th in the NFC with 726 yards rushing, but he has also snagged 51 balls this season out of 59 targets. His 86.4 percent success rate in the passing game means whatever is thrown his way he usually grabs. With 10 catches for 80 yards in his last two games not only is he a great play in traditional scoring leagues, but he is better than a solid start in PPR leagues every week. The kid is really starting to crank it up at the right time with fantasy playoffs right around the corner.

Radar Watch

In My sites

With names like Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Johnson stealing a lot of the headlines, some folks may have missed the memo on wide receiver Mike Wallace. Not so quietly he has emerged into an elite deep passing threat. In his last three games he has been targeted 24 times (8.0 targets/game) which ranks 18th anong receivers during this stretch. During this span Wallace has managed to do a lot of damage to opposing defenses with three consecutive games with over 100-yards receiving. His 16 receptions rank him 18th again amongst receivers, but his 362 yards (ranks 1st) and four touchdowns (ranks tied for 2nd) are among the best.

For the season, Wallace has 33 grabs on 57 targets; only 57.8% success. With a 23.0 yards per catch average (leads NFL) and 9 touchdowns, Wallace doesn’t need many catches to get the job done

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, Wallace is a top-flight receiver and even matched up against a 9th ranked Bill’s defense he’ll have no trouble making plays for the Steelers. In Weeks 13-15 his matchups will be more favorable, including a week 14 rematch against the Bengals. Back in week nine Wallace collected five balls (on 7 targets) for 110 yards and a score.

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 23rd, 2010, Tuesday

David’s Daily Digest

My Fantasy Notes:

BRANDON PETTIGREW WARRANTS SOME ATTENTION
The Lions rookie tight end turned in a superb performance last Sunday against the Cowboys catching 8 balls for 75 yards in the loss. Detroit stayed close into the second half, but once they fell behind big they went almost exclusively to the pass. Pettigrew started quick with five catches in the first half off of six targets, but only managed three grabs down the stretch.
My Fantasy Read:
Pettigrew was targeted a total of 10 times on the day. Over the past three weeks he is the third most targeted tight end and looks to remain a solid fantasy play going forward. This week he’ll have a shot at the Patriots 31st ranked pass defense. The Pats defense has been victimized by the tight end position over the past two games for 12 receptions and 120 yards; play Pettigrew.

MIKE WALLACE IS THE BIG PLAY IN STEELTOWN
Despite only making three grabs last Sunday, the Steeler’s wide receiver Mike Wallace managed to make a huge impact. His three grabs averaged 38.7 yards, including a 52 yard catch and score to help bury the Raiders. Wallace also added a 19 yard scamper. For the year the wide out is averaging 23 yards per catch and has 8 touchdowns to his credit.
My Fantasy Read:
Wallace will draw a tough matchup this week when he faces the Bills 7th ranked pass defense, but then again maybe not. With 24 targets in the last three weeks Wallace has emerged into Big Ben’s deep threat this season. And with the Bills in their last three games allowing 9 pass play of 20 yards or more, including two over 35 yards expect Ben to chuck the deep ball. Wallace should be good for a couple of grabs and a score.

KNOWSHON MORENO SHOWING HE CAN HANDLE THE LOAD
Whenever you lose you always have to try and find some good to build from. For the depleted 3-7 Broncos, one good that can be easily spotted is their second year running back Knowshon Moreno. Over the past several weeks Moreno has been healthy and starting to show a lot of that versatility that head coach Josh McDaniels was hoping for. In his last two games Moreno has not only carried the ball 35 times, but he has also caught 10 passes; this includes Monday’s seven grabs for62 yards and 13 carry for 58 yards with a rushing touchdown.
My Fantasy Read:
As long as Moreno remains healthy he looks like he can be as good as back in this league. His 276 yards of total offense (inclues two touchdowns) over the past two weeks ranks third behind Maurice Jones-Drew (333 yards) and Fred Jackson (299 yards). Moreno is a must start in every format.

FSH: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 21st, 2010 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 11 will mark a beginning for some teams today and an ending for others. Team’s like the Vikings and the 49ers will be playing for the post-season life; at 3-6 there’s not much life there, but another loss and stick a fork in them. While teams like the Packers and Saints are set to begin their post-season push and at 6-3 both teams look poised to make their runs.

With so much on the line for all of these teams, today could be a scoring haven for fantasy owners expecting to see a lot of the big names step up and give their best; names to watch include Favre, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. Injuries will always play a part in the outcome, but with players like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Terrell Owens lining up we’ll see plenty of fireworks today

With nine games in the morning the fun will get off to a fast start and conclude this evening with a great matchup between the Giants and Eagles. If you have nothing better to do (and how could you), find your local tailgate party, strap on your favorite lid and get set for week 11….

Today’s injury notes:

The Redskins will be missing running back Ryan Torain (hamstring) today, but will see the return of running back Clinton Portis. Also out today for the Skins, defensive backs Laron Landry and Carlos Rogers; that will hurt today against the Titans.

The Browns are not going to have wide receiver and special teamer Joshua Cribbs (dislocated toes).

According to Fox Sports the Saints running back Reggie Bush is likely to miss today’s matchup with the Seahawks. The team already announced earlier in the week running back Pierre Thomas would not play.

Today the Viking’s wide receiver Sidney Rice is expected to make his 2010 season debut. Rice was activated from the PUP list earlier in the week.

Earlier this week the Lions placed running back Kevin Smith on the injured reserve, meaning rooke running back Jahvid Best will likely see a more increased role going forward; no RBBC in Detroit.

In their big clash today with the Patriots, Peyton Manning and the Colts will not have the services of running back Jospeh Addai (neck), but could see wide receiver Austin Collie (concussion) return to action; against the Pats that would be very good news.

Notable Matchups;

Today with Addai out and on the road, there’s little doubt that the Colts will be relying heavily on Peyton Manning to play well. One component Manning will be leaning on heavily to find success could be his new best buddy and tight end Jacob Tamme. Tamme has been targeted 36 times in his last three games and has had great success catching 24 balls for 245 yards with two scores. The Patriots boast the 29 ranked pass defense, so Tamme looks to be a safe bet.

The Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards (5 touchdowns) has had to be very patient over the past several weeks with his quarterback spreading the ball around a lot. Today his patience could see a lot of return against the league’s worst secondary, the Houston Texans. Edwards is only averaging just over six targets a game over his last three played, but that may be all he needs to do some heavy damage against today’s opponent. The Texans have been torched for over 300 yards passing per game this season and they have allowed a league high 22 passing touchdowns.

If there were ever a game to play Jermaine Gresham, today is that game. The Bengal’s rookie tight really appears to be sprouting his wings and starting to blossom into the type of playmaker that had hoped they drafted. Last week Gresham caught nine passes for 85 yards and a score. Today he’ll face one of the worst defenses at covering the tight end position; it could be a big day for Jermaine.

The Lions wide receiver Calving Johnson has really been solid this season considering the number of quarterback changes he has had to work with. Through it all he has performed brilliantly catching 49 passes for nearly 700 yards and nine touchdowns. Today against the Dallas Cowboys he’ll square off against a secondary (ranked 20th) that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns and 33 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. Don’t be surprised to see Megatron have a huge game today.

FSH: MY WEEKLY FANTASY

November 21st, 2010 Sunday

My Weekly Fantasy

Sunday’s Fantasy Lineup

Some quick notes about today’s lineup…..

My Quarterback:

Playing in several fantasy leagues leaves me many options at the quarterback position (choices include Ben Roethlisberger, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco), but just one stands head and shoulders above all today. Despite being on the road I like Aaron Rodgers under center for my fantasy team. In his last three starts against the Vikings Rodgers is averaging 322 yards passing with 7 total touchdowns. Without Ryan Grant in the backfield and pretty formidable run defense (Vikings are ranked 9th in the league) I expect to see the Packers put the ball in the air early and often.

My Running backs:

Even though the Falcons defense has looked pretty good on paper this season with their 7th ranked run stoppers, those numbers could be a bit skewed. The Falcons play an uptempo style and often force their opponents to play catch up. This Sunday they are on the road facing running back Steven Jackson and the Rams. This season St. Louis is 4-1 at home and can be expected to stay committed to the ground game a little longer facing a defense that allows 4.2 yards per carry. What I like most about “Action” Jackson today, last week the Rams turned him into an effective receiver throwing his way nine times; he totaled 148 yards last Sunday. Jackson will get plenty of carries between the tackles, but we’ll also see more of his versatility as the Rams work to put the ball in his hands often.

My Wide Receivers:

With just nine sacks this season the Bengals pass defense is going to be leaning hard on their secondary to cover the Bill’s receivers. In the past month Steve Johnson has emerged as a star in Buffalo and should be able to take advantage today. Targeted often, Johnson (averaging over 10 targets last four games) should have plenty of opportunities against a team that has allowed its’ share of big plays; Bengals defense has allowed 26 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. A big key to the Bills success in the air will be their effectiveness against the Bengals 22nd ranked run defense. Johnson has 44 receptions and six touchdowns this season; expect to see those numbers to improve.

My Tight End:

It’s no coincidence that I would look at the Bengals-Bills matchup for my tight end solution. Thus far this season, the Bills pass defense has been one of the kindest to tight ends. After his nine catch performance for 85 yards last week, you have to like Bengal’s tight end Jermaine Gresham’s prospects for today. He has not been utilized a great deal this season, but last week quarterback Carson Palmer targeted his tight end 10 times and connected with Gresham for a score. This season the Bill’s defense has allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends; that number could change today.