FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 14th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It looks like the NFL got this one right with this Week 2 meeting between the Eagles and Vikings. The Vegas line has the over/under at 49.5, so the good news for fantasy owners is the expectation is an old fashion western shootout at the O.K Corral.

Both teams enter this matchup loaded with offensive weapons on both sides and according to Vegas we should see a lot of them. The Eagles defense ranks 29th against the pass, so expect a lot of Jefferson and Hockenson on the Vikes side. 

While the Vikes defense had much better numbers than Philly in week 1 on defense, Hurts and company may prove to be too much. Looking to Thursday night, I have some (DFS) favorites in play.

My Fantasy Five for Thursday Night Football;

1.Jalen Hurts (QB) - We’ll see some vintage Hurts in this one. He should give us a little bit of everything, passing and rushing. I would count on at least three scores, including one rushing. (DK-My Captain)

2.DeVonta Smith (WR) - The Eagles receiver is hardly a number two, but more like a 1B. Smith, like his teammate AJ Brown also registered 10 targets in week 1. He’ll be a key piece in this one and a strong DFS play.

3.TJ Hockenson (TE) - The Eagles had trouble (ranked last) with the tight end in week one and Hockenson is one of the best in fantasy and the NFL. Hockenson collected 8 passes in week one and could very easily duplicate his numbers on Thursday.

4.Justin Jefferson (WR) - The Eagles secondary struggled in week one against the Patriots. With Jefferson coming to town on Thursday night, it could be a long night for the Eagles defense. 

5.D’Andre Swift (RB) - Swift did not see a lot of usage in week 1, but with Kenneth Gainwell ruled out, he could be in line as the lead back and see plenty of work here. Swift is a risky play here, but I believe in the talent; it rises to the top. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 30th 2019

FSH: Quick Takes

The Seahawks rookie wide receiver DK Metcalf has not seen fewer than 5 targets in each of his games since week 6 and has 25 total in his last three starts. His numbers have been modest to quiet his past two starts, but he could be in line to bounce back on Monday night against the Vikings.

Over the past four weeks, the Vikings secondary has been toasted allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including 727 receiving yards (3rd most), and four receiving touchdowns. On the season, the Vikings defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, including 15 touchdowns (tied for 3rd most). 

This could be just the matchup Metcalf needs to repeat his breakout performance from week 9, when he turned in a line of 6/123/1.

That’s My Take
~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 15th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

On The Cover This Week

Flying High Under the Radar

Last season the Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen was hardly a household name, even in his home town. And even after posting career highs in receptions (69), yards receiving (967), and touchdowns (5), Thielen entered this season as a quiet mention and a No. 2 wide receiver.

He was last year’s No.29 fantasy WR (in PPR), but this season Thielen has arrived and after 10 weeks, he is currently the league’s No.3 fantasy wideout.

He’s no longer a groomsmen, he is a groom. Thielen is a solid No.1 WR and a must-start every week.

In 9 games this season Thielen has 56 catches (tied for 5th in the league) for 793 receiving yards (3rd in the league) and two touchdowns. He’s quickly risen to the fantasy threshold as one of the league’s top receivers.

Thielen has recorded five games with over 90 yards receiving and has 2 games this season with over 150 yards. He has also recorded at least 5 catches in every game this season, including three games with 8 or more receptions.

He and Stefon Diggs are the new Wonder Twins in Minnesota, and with these two the Vikings are having Superbowl visions.

Thielen may have entered this season under the radar, but he is clearly flying high in 2017.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 7 Diamonds in the Rough

I’m pretty sure if Titan’s wide receiver Eric Decker was available this week on Waiver wires, he was a popular choice of the consensus. Afterall, Decker is coming off a nice Monday night performance; he was targeted 9 times and caught 7 passes for 88 yards. These were very nice numbers in PPR for Week 6.

For a couple of names that may have been overlooked this week, I give you my Week 7 Diamonds in the rough;

Over the past three weeks, Vikings running back Latavius Murray has yet to take advantage of the opportunity that has been presented. He’s carried the ball 34 times for only 80 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. Right now he’s being outplayed by running back Jerick McKinnon and it’s not close. This week Murray will get his second opportunity facing a Ravens defense that allows better than 4 yards per carry and nearly 125 yards on the ground per game. In two of their last three games the Ravens have allowed a 100-yard rusher (Le’Veon Bell 144 yards in week 4 and Jordan Howard 167 yards this past Sunday). This could be the matchup Murray needs to get going.

Digging a little deeper on the Waiver Wire, the Jaguars wide receiver Marquise Lee has an interesting matchup this week. Last Sunday many figured facing a tough Rams defense, in a run-heavy offense Lee would have little value. With the loss of Allen Robinson back in week one, Lee has emerged as the team’s best receiver. In 6 games Lee leads the team in targets (40), yards receiving (291), and is 2nd in receptions (20). Last Sunday Lee dominated the action in the pass game with 10 targets (good enough for 5 catches and 83 yards), nearest to him was only 3. It’s not a great matchup this week for Lee, but it’s not bad. The Jags will face the Colts in week 7 and over the past 4 weeks, the Colts secondary has surrendered the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. If you’re digging, you’ll probably find Lee out there this week.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th 2017

Tuesday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Well the third week (or technically the 4th week if you count the Hall of fame game) of the preseason, also known as the dress-rehearsal has completed and what have we learned? Plenty!

There was a lot to see and plenty of notes to take, so let’s get started.

The Niners have a new head coach this season, former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and many believe his presence could have a lot of influence on his new quarterback Brian Hoyer (aka Billy Ho). Hoyer is a carry-over from Cleveland when Shanahan was the OC there back in 2014; Hoyer started 13 games. Last season before going down in week 7, Hoyer had passed for over 300 yards in 4 straight games. Hoyer also scored double digits in four straight starts (week 3 thru 6) and had more than 18 fantasy points in three straight weeks (weeks 3 thru 5). Hoyer is not a big name, nor does he have a big arm, but he’s in a familiar system and a capable arm that you should be able to stream throughout the season.

One of the reasons I like Billy Ho in Frisco, he’ll be throwing to wide receiver Pierre Garcon who is also familiar with Shanahan’s system. Garcon is expected to be the Niners number one receiver this year and back in 2013 under OC Shanahan when the two were together in Washington he posted career numbers in receptions (113) and yards receiving (1,346 yards); he also had a league high 182 targets. Garcon is a little older now, but could be much wiser and a very nice value with a current ADP of 8.06 (the 37th WR going off the board). Garcon could have high level WR2 value and he’s being drafted as a borderline WR3/WR4.

The Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is going even later around the 11th round; he’s going off the board as the 48th fantasy receiver. Thielen has worked himself into a starting role in Minnesota and last season finished as the No. 29 fantasy receiver, so he is going way too late. Last season Thielen has a huge week 16 performance scoring over 44 fantasy points, a big reason why he finished in the top 30. But even without the huge game in week 16, in weeks 5 thru 14 last season Thielen was the league’s No. 26 fantasy receiver. He’s great value going as late as he is.

Some of the big news coming out of this past weekend was injuries and the fantasy implications. The Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman on Saturday (we’re hoping Edelman a speedy recovery) and his absence will surely open up opportunities for others in the passing game this season. Last season Edelman finished with 159 targets, so it is natural to expect many of those to go somewhere this season. Two beneficiaries we’d expect to see are wide receivers Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. Sure there will be  a carry over to the running backs (James White could absorb the majority of those), but the Patriots aerial attack has an aggressive look this season with so many weapons, players like Hogan and Amendola will surely now get a lot more usage than they would have. Their value won’t likely spike enough for consideration in re-draft leagues (their best fit is undoubtedly Best Ball Drafts), but you should be able to stream them throughout the season; just look for the favorable matchups.

These are just a few of the fantasy players I’ll be watching this season.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 26th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

The Fantasy Draft Room

Recap

It’s still relatively early for the fantasy draft season, but no question it is in high gear now. I’ve managed to complete several myself and following along with several others. I’ve also been on the internet quite a bit lately checking many websites for the current ADP of many players.

With your draft season kicking into high gear, I am just running through and recapping some recent picks made in my drafts that I have taken note.

Let’s start at the top with Buccaneers Mike Evans. I am hearing a lot of good things about Evans and I am on the bandwagon for another big season. Last year Evans finished as the No.3 fantasy receiver with a stat line of 96-1321-12, and going off the draft boards as the No. 4 receiver big things are expected again this season. Fantasy owners will have to target him early.

Last season was unquestionably Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan’s best season of his career with a 70.0 completion percentage, 4,944 yards passing, and 38 touchdowns. He’ll have a lot of the same pieces in place for the 2017 season, so an encore performance to his 2016 campaign looks likely. He’s clearly the number 4 quarterback going off draft boards around the 5th round, a full round in front of the 5th QB, (according to FFC ADP). Fantasy owners are drinking the Cool-aid; another big season for Matty Ice. He’s a great target to start those middle rounds, after you filled your backfield and/or slotted your wideouts.

Moving right along Terrelle Pryor, coming off a nice 2016 showing in Cleveland (77 receptions, 1,007 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns) the Redskins newest big target in their passing game is being drafted as a solid WR2. Last season Pryor finished as the No. 19 fantasy receiver in scoring, in a better system this year with Kirk Cousin chucking the rock in his direction Pryor should easily match and exceed his numbers from a year ago.I see him more as a low WR2, but will just as happy taking him a little early as my WR2; being drafted around the middle of the third round in 12 team leagues.

One play I am not completely enthused about is the Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch. After taking a year off it make take Lynch a few games to find Beast Mode and his current ADP (late second round) is too rich for my blood. I don’t necessarily think Lynch will be a bust, just not ready to sell the farm with a 2nd round pick. His value is more in line for me a couple of rounds later, 4th round or early 5th.

Right now one of the hottest fantasy stocks on the rise has to be Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook. A lot of positive reports suggesting Cook could be a three-down back and with Latavius Murray missing as much time as he has, the rookie has been able to showcase his talents. It’s early and only preseason, but an early 3rd round grab (current ADP 3.04 according to FFC) sits well with me. Cook is a fantasy running back I’d like to own this season.

Another hot fantasy stock is the Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. The rookie out of Stanford arrived with on the hype train this summer and so far he’s making believers everywhere. McCaffrey figures to be a change of pace ball-carrier in Carolina, but heavily involved in the pass game; can you say PPR stud. His current ADP puts him in the 3rd round and someone fantasy owners will target as a preferred RB2, especially in PPR formats.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 20th 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

The Rookie Radar

The second week of Preseason is nearly complete and even though it’s only two weeks of preseason action, fantasy owners have seen enough to know there are some very good rookies to watch.

Even with names like Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon, rookie running back Dalvin Cook is creating a lot of buzz in Minnesota. The 2nd round rookie pick out of Florida State has been impressive in camp and shown chemistry with quarterback Sam Bradford. It should also be noted that in the team’s 2nd exhibition game Cook started with the first team ahead of McKinnon. The rookie looks like a lock to hold the starting gig heading into the start of the season. With his current ADP of 3.07 (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) he is going as early as a late third or early 4th round pick. Cook’s stock is on the rise and worth watching.

Over in Houston there’s a little noise coming out of the Texans camp. Their 3rd round selection out of Texas D’Onta Foreman has quietly been putting together a nice highlight reel during the preseason drawing some warranted attention. In two games the rookie runner has totaled 16 carries for 93 yards rushing and 4 grabs for 72 yards receiving with a touchdown. Right now Foreman is well behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart, but his impressive play could be closing the gap in a hurry; keep an eye on this rookie.

In the off-season the Denver Broncos signed Jamaal Charles to a one year deal, looking for the veteran running back to help bolster a Broncos running game in need. It seems the team may have found some additional help in their 6th round draft selection, DeAngelo Henderson. The rookie running back has been solid in the preseason, displaying quickness and a great burst of speed. It’s only two games and only the preseason, but Henderson has looked very good; 13 carries for 84 yards rushing and a touchdown. So far this preseason Henderson looks like the best running back in Denver. Fantasy owners should take note, because I’m sure the Broncos coaching staff has.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 18th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

The Halfback Attack

Another Friday night and with nothing better to do than talk fantasy football, let’s jump right in with a couple of more players I like in 2017.

I no longer believe the hype, because I believe the talk around Vikings camp is truth; rookie running back Dalvin Cook will be their starting running back sooner than later. Cook ran with the starters through most of the first half in the team’s second exhibition game and looking at his numbers; 7 rushes for 40 yards rushing, 1 catch for another 10 yards. Cook was taken early in the 2nd round in this year’s NFL draft and it looks like he be paying dividends early this season. He’s no secret now and he’ll continue to rise in fantasy drafts, in my opinion he’s a solid low-end RB2 with plenty of upside. Fantasy owners should still find him available in the 3rd round of most drafts.

The Packers new running back Ty Montgomery was a big surprise last season, especially since he entered the season as one of the team’s wide receivers. Montgomery proved to be more than capable and pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He would have been the number 10 fantasy running back from weeks 13 to week 17 last year. He’ll have his work cut out this season, since defenses will now game plan with him as a running back. Nonetheless, I like Montgomery very much this season, in particular in PPR formats. He’s a capable runner and a solid pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016). Montgomery didn’t see his running back duties increase until mid-season last year and this season he’s bulked up some and could see those duties increased even more in 2017. What I like most about Montgomery is the offense he is a part of that features quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We are hearing good things about Montgomery this camp and that has the potential to lead to greater volume. Montgomery may be going a little early for my taste (as early as the 2nd round in some leagues), but beyond the 3rd round the value is there with this pick.

The Giants 2nd year running back Paul Perkins  is currently positioned to enter this season as the team’s starter. Last season there were some flashes and his strong week 17 finish, toting the rock 21 times for 102 yards was eye-opening. Thus far Perkins hasn’t stopped the presses in camp, but I believe the former UCLA Bruin has the talent and skills to succeed at this level. If he can run with the job, there should be enough volume for Perkins to finish in the top 20 (RB2). So far what I am seeing in fantasy drafts, Perkins in going around the 6th and 7th rounds (depending on league size) which about where I would take him, maybe even a round later. The Giants have a full backfield and nothing is guaranteed at this time, so any earlier might be a little too risky, but any later than the 7th and that’s value that’s hard to pass up.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

WEEK 6: MY SUNDAY PICKS

October 18th, 2015
Sunday (Week 6)

Week 6: My Sunday Picks

I had a good week last week in my season long PPR leagues, Texans running backs Arian Foster and Steelers Le'Veon Bell carried several of my teams with solid performances. My hat also goes off to Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (starting to right the ship in Philly) and my waiver wire pick up last week, Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. Both played very well and assisted my teams with a couple of wins in week 5.

Now my DFS lineups were a different story last week. As I do every week, digging for gold and looking for those diamonds in the rough, several players in a quite a few of my lineups just didn't pan out. Such is the weekly conundrum.

This Fantasy week looks to be no easier than any other which is often the case, but just like last week (and any other for that matter) it has its' attractive offers for Sunday. So who am I looking at, who do I like today? Well I'll tell you.

My Sunday Picks:

For my season long lineups, I suffered the loss of Jamaal Charles last week (like many other owners), and with no luck this week on the waiver wire I am shooting for the fence with my back up Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman. It's a risk, yes, but if he can get double digit touches in this favorable matchup agains the Browns 32nd ranked run defense (allowing 147 yards rushing per game) and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

And while I am reading that Niners tight end Vernon Davis is ready for a big game today against the Ravens, I am going to roll with a more consistent play; Barnidge versus the Broncos today. It's not the best matchup for the Browns tight end, but he's quickly become a favorite target in the passing game with 20 receptions on 26 targets the last three weeks.

For the DFS plays, I have two picks I am coddling in several lineups; Vikings rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Giants wideout Dwayne Harris. 

I had a chance to watch the majority the Vikings week 4 game (on bye in week 5) versus the Broncos. Diggs was quite impressive matched up against one of the leagues very best secondary; he caught 6 of 10 passes for 87 yards. He looked very sharp, a smooth runner with soft hands. He's no Jerry Rice, but he did look like he has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. What I liked most was his 10 targets; 4 or 5 passes and he's risky, but 10 targets and he is someone the quarterback trusts. His low value could make him an excellent play today.

Now Dwayne Harris is a bit more risky with a Monday night game. The reports indicate that wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, even if he plays could be limited (possibly more of a decoy in the pass game). If thats the case, Harris' stock has to be on the rise. In his last two games he's been very involed in the pass game with 11 receptions, including a touchdown on 14 targets. No ODJ or a limited ODJ means more looks for Harris and possibly a very nice Monday night stat line; at his value on DFS he's another week 6 diamond in the rough. Just for note, no ODJ could also mean more involvement for running back Shane Vereen, who I also like as a flex in DFS.

These are some of my picks for Sunday.

Just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY'S TAKE

Thursday Edition
October 25th, 2012  

Thursdays Take

Starts

With quarterback Josh Freeman playing at such a high level of late, it’s hard not to like his Week 8 matchup against the Vikings this week. Even though the Buccaneers are on the road, Freeman has a nice matchup against a Vikings defense that is ranked 11th in the league versus the pass and has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Freeman has passed for over 1,000 yards and tossed seven touchdowns in his last three starts and looks primed to continue his hot hand tonight. 

The Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin has been Mr. Everything for the offense this season, leading the team with 53 receptions and 646 scrimmage yards. Last week Harvin was held in check by a stingy Cardinals secondary, but that all could change tonight against the Buccaneers. The Bucs allow the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and Percy has managed to find the end-zone three times in his last three games; look for a productive evening from the Vikings playmaker. Last season in their lone matchup against the Bucs, Harvin tallied 7 grabs for 76 yards.

With the awakening of the Bucs passing game over the past several weeks, tight end Dallas Clark is suddenly relevant again in fantasy. Clark is coming off his best and busiest performance this season. In week 7 Clark was targeted 6 times, snagging five balls for 51 yards and a score against the Cardinals. Fantasy owners could be licking their chops with Clark set to face the Vikings tonight. The Vikings defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends making Clark an attractive option for week 8.

Sits

The Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder is coming off a horrendous passing performance in week 7 versus the Cardinals. Last week Ponder passed for just 58 yards completing just 8 passes. While no one expects his numbers to be quite as bad tonight against the Bucs, his prospect of playing well does not look good. The Bucs 31st ranked pass defense has allowed 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Owners can expect a lot more yards than 58 this week, but finding the end zone tonight could be difficult; especially with AP in the red zone.

The Bucs running back Doug Martin has been consistent the past two weeks averaging over 120 scrimmage yards per game. Facing a couple of soft defenses versus the run the past two games, Martin will be lining up against the leagues number 11 ground stopper. The Vikings have also been very stingy in fantasy allowing running back the 4th fewest points. If you own Martin you may be faced with having to start him tonight, but just be sure to taper your expectations; it could be a long night.


By David Ortega

FSH: FANTASY WATCH

November 27th, 2010, Saturday

Fantasy Watch

Sidney Rice: Returning to Form

The Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice finally made his return to action last week and so much for bringing him along slowly; he played in over 45 snaps and had 10 targets last week. Rice’s numbers didn’t jump off the sports pages last week with three catches for 56 yards, but the fact he was able to contribute and play as much as he did is a good sign for things to come.

This week the Vikings face the Washington Redskins and their 29th ranked pass defense. As Rice gets back to game speed he’ll only get better and return to his pro bowl form. This week lends a great matchup to help expedite that process. The Redskins have allowed 18 passing touchdowns and 36 pass plays of 20 yards or more.

If Rice can go another 45 plays this week, there no doubt he will be producing much better numbers. Fantasy owners in deep leagues needing help at the WR spot may want to take a shot with Rice.

Sunday’s projections against the Redskins
(10 targets, 6 receptions, 75 yards passing, 1-touchdowns)

Steven Jackson: Ram Tough and Ready to Run

It’s been a hard fought season thus far for the Rams running back Steven Jackson, but in the team’s ten games this season he has performed well once again. Jackson is averaging four yards per carry with over 800 yards rushing and 243 yards receiving this season. In six games this season “Action” Jackson has total over 100-yards of offense; including an average of 140-yards in his last three road contests.

This Sunday Jackson will travel to Denver to meet the Broncos 31st ranked run defense that is allowing 143.5 yards on the ground per game. The Bronco’s defense has also allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season and 9 run plays of 20 yards or more (tied for 8th worst). For Denver home cooking is not always the answer. Back in week seven the defense was torched for 328 yards on the ground.

The Rams may not have quite the same success, but as long as they can keep this one close, the battering Ram (Jackson) will see plenty of touches and should be able to rack up some yardage. Fantasy owners should start Jackson with lots of confidence.

Sunday’s projections against the Broncos
(115 yards passing, 25 yards receiving, 1- touchdowns)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH: WHAT'S THE LATEST

March 10th, 2010 9:07pm PST

What's the Latest

Tomlinson Visits the Vikings....

LT's playing days in San Diego may be over, but it sure looks like the former NFL MVP is not finished just yet. On Wednesday LT visited with the Viking's officials and from recent reports it sounds like there is a good chance Tomlinson could be sharing duties in the backfield with Adrian Peterson.

At 30 years of age LT's best playing days may be behind him, but in a backup role in Minnesota he could be a nice fit. Peterson would likely handle the brunt of the ground game, but LT could give the Vikings the versatility of a pass receiver out of the backfield, much in the same way as Chester Taylor (Bears). Tomlinson would also add invaluable leadership to a team that was knocking on the doorsteps of a Super Bowl appearance just a few short months ago.

Tomlinson had over 500 career receptions and 3,900 yards receiving as a Charger. Now behind one of the league's better run blocking lines he may not rise to fantasy prominence in 2010, but could easily contribute and offer some value as a backup running back in most leagues (PPR leagues in particular).

LT's numbers;

2,880 carries

12,490 yards rushing

138 rushing touchdowns

530 receptions

3,955 yards receiving

15 receiving touchdowns

Last season LT recorded his lowest numbers in receptions (20), receiving yards (154), rushing attempts (223), and rushing yards (730). As a Viking he could easily match and surpass most of those numbers (especially the receiving numbers).

A deal has not been reached as of Wednesday evenings, but there are a lot of signs indicating LT is not likely to leave Minnesota without getting one done.

Check back with "Your Fantasy Sports Home" for more Football to digest....