FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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November 1st 2017

Wednesday Late Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

They Call Him Mister Wilson

After a huge week 8 performance and exciting come from behind win over the Texans, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has officially entered the MVP conversation.

Basically flying under the radar for most of this first half of the season, don't look now, but the Seahawks and Wilson are now 5-2. Back in the middle of the NFC race, Wilson has led the charge for the Seahawks with a solid first half of the season campaign.

Through 8 weeks Russell Wilson is the No.5 fantasy quarterback in fantasy scoring. Wilson has passed for 2,008 yards, ranked 6th in league and has throw 15 touchdown passes, 3rd most this season. Wilson is versatile and mobile with 194 yards rushing this season, which ranks 4th amongst quarterbacks.

Wilson is playing sensational this season and looks great, especially after Sunday's epic win over Houston. With the addition of a top notch left tackle, Wilson and Seahawks look poised to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The Seahawks defense may not be the same old Legion of Boom, but opponents will quickly learn why they call him Mister Wilson.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 3rd, 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Week 5: On The Cover This Week

A Star on the Rise

It's quite apparent by now that Texans rookie running back Deshaun Watson is a star on the rise. Through the first 4 weeks of the young season, Watson 2-1 as a starter has already made a big statement going head to head with Tom Brady in week 3 (passed for 301 yards and threw 2 touchdowns). Then in week 4 he put on a show and dominating performance against the Jaguars accounting for 5 touchdowns.

Watson was the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, out of Clemson where he was a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist. While at Clemson in his sophomore season he led his team to a National Championship accounting for 47 touchdowns (35 passing, 12 rushing), so the pedigree is there.

He's only played in four NFL games, but already the kid's a star. Currently Watson is the No.7 fantasy quarterback averaging 19.31 fantasy points per game. Watson is completing 65 percent of his passes while passing for 811 yards and throwing 7 touchdowns. He also leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and has added 2 more scores there.

It may be a little premature to start comparing him to the talents of a Michael Vick, but the talent and ability likeness is scary. He's already making heading turning and back-breaking plays. He's quickly becoming a defensive coordinator's nightmare; just ask head coach Bill Belichick.

Watson is a star on the rise and should be on everyone's fantasy radar going forward. He should actually be owned in all formats, so if he's available put in your claim this week and see if you can catch this shooting star.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

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September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 11th 2017

Monday Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

The New Beast on the Block

This year’s NFL class of rookies is making quite an impression early this season with some strong debuts. One of the impressive performances on Sunday was turned in the Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette.

Fournette is a beast of a back out of LSU taken fourth overall in the 2017 NFL draft. He stands 6’1”, 228 lbs, and when he’s moving he’s at full steam, he’s a load to stop. As a sophomore at LSU Fournette set school records in rushing with 1,953 yards and touchdowns with 22. His 162.8 yards rushing per game average also earned him an NCAA rushing title.

On Sunday he made his NFL starting debut  and the Texans got a taste of the new Beast on the Block; the former Tiger did some serious damage. The Jags rookie runner trampled the Texans defense for 100 yards rushing on 26 carries and showed his versatility hauling in all three of his targets for another 24 yards.

Fournette proved on Sunday he can play with the big boys. Next up is Tennessee and another easy Sunday morning for the rookie.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 3rd 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

Even with plenty of drafts left to be completed this weekend (still have several myself), I’m going to start turning my attention away from who to draft, but rather toward what to expect from some of your draftees or draft prospect.

By now we’ve heard a lot of the conversations and we are familiar with the many fantasy player names, so here’s my take on a few of this year’s Studs and Duds. And when I say dud, just be clear not a bust. A dud is player that does not live up to the draft position or hype. So let’s get to it.

Studs (Target these players)

No surprise here with the Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Everyone knows his name and they’ve seen his work. The only question folks are asking, is the first pick Bell or Cardinals running back David Johnson. In my book the choice is Bell, everyday and twice on Sunday. No disrespect to DJ, he’s going to have a big season, but the pick is Bell. Last season, Le’Veon played in just 12 games and finished as the No.3 fantasy running back (PPR format) last season and averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game (Johnson averaged 25.5). Bell is a gifted runner with smooth moves, and an elite pass catcher (75 receptions last season). Entering the 2017 season, Bell is healthy and a major compliment to an offense that looks poised to make a lot of noise this season.

In the NFC North, the Bears have a grinder in their backfield by the name of Jordan Howard; this kid is a stud. He’s going to be available at the turn of the 1st and 2nd round and should go ahead of running backs like Jay Ajayi, Todd Gurley, and DeMarco Murray. Last season after missing the first game, Howard didn’t start for the Bears until week 4 and finished as the No. 10 fantasy running back (PPR format), he was 9th in standard leagues. Howard rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2016, including 7 100-yard games. He’s the bell-cow in Chicago and should put up even better numbers in 2017.

Duds (drafting too high)

There’s no question Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a top talent in the NFL, but last season with insufficient quarterback play he finished 2016 as the No. 26 wide receiver. His line for 2016 was 78-954-4 on 151 targets. This season he’s going to be playing with a rookie quarterback, so even if he sees the same volume this season it’s hard for me to see his quarterback being dramatically more efficient. As good a player as Hopkins is, if he takes a step up finishing closer to 80-1,000-5 (which would have put him as a borderline top 20 fantasy receiver last season), a borderline top 20 receiver is where I see Hopkins ceiling this season. He’s being drafted as the No. 16 fantasy receiver in PPR format (according to FFC), but there are other player options I like ahead of him like;  Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, and even Martavis Bryant.

Although I am on high on this kid and a big fan of running back Christian McCaffrey, even in PPR format I don’t expect a near top 10 finish. McCaffrey could conceivably catch 60-65 balls this season, but I believe 125 carries is probably near his ceiling for his first season with a projected finish around 190.5 fantasy points; this would be in line for just outside the top 20 last season. McCaffrey looks like he could be a special player, but his current ADP of 2.12 (No. 12 fantasy running back according FFC in PPR) is a bit too rich and tall order for the rookie (if you ask me). If you are going to want the Panther’s rookie running back for this season, you will have to reach for him early in your draft, but that’s what it is a reach in the 2nd round.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

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August 20th 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

The Rookie Radar

The second week of Preseason is nearly complete and even though it’s only two weeks of preseason action, fantasy owners have seen enough to know there are some very good rookies to watch.

Even with names like Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon, rookie running back Dalvin Cook is creating a lot of buzz in Minnesota. The 2nd round rookie pick out of Florida State has been impressive in camp and shown chemistry with quarterback Sam Bradford. It should also be noted that in the team’s 2nd exhibition game Cook started with the first team ahead of McKinnon. The rookie looks like a lock to hold the starting gig heading into the start of the season. With his current ADP of 3.07 (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) he is going as early as a late third or early 4th round pick. Cook’s stock is on the rise and worth watching.

Over in Houston there’s a little noise coming out of the Texans camp. Their 3rd round selection out of Texas D’Onta Foreman has quietly been putting together a nice highlight reel during the preseason drawing some warranted attention. In two games the rookie runner has totaled 16 carries for 93 yards rushing and 4 grabs for 72 yards receiving with a touchdown. Right now Foreman is well behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart, but his impressive play could be closing the gap in a hurry; keep an eye on this rookie.

In the off-season the Denver Broncos signed Jamaal Charles to a one year deal, looking for the veteran running back to help bolster a Broncos running game in need. It seems the team may have found some additional help in their 6th round draft selection, DeAngelo Henderson. The rookie running back has been solid in the preseason, displaying quickness and a great burst of speed. It’s only two games and only the preseason, but Henderson has looked very good; 13 carries for 84 yards rushing and a touchdown. So far this preseason Henderson looks like the best running back in Denver. Fantasy owners should take note, because I’m sure the Broncos coaching staff has.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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January 14th, 2017
Saturday morning Edition

Fantasy Five for Saturday

Back in Week 6 the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ($8,300 DFS salary) torched the Seahawks secondary completing 27 of 42 passes for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan has been brilliant throughout his 2016 campaign, passing for nearly 5,000 yards and tossing 38 touchdowns (2nd in the league). Despite the success the Seahawks defense has had against opposing quarterbacks, I believe Ryan is in for another big day on Saturday against the Seahawks.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,300 DFS salary)  is just a beast and in the earlier matchup this season with the Seahawks he just did his thing; 7 receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. The Seahawks will definitely focus on trying to stop Jones, but Falcons will have OC Kyle Shanahan on the case and ready to show the NFL teams that passed on him why they made a mistake. Expect the Falcons to move Jones around and make a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands; no fewer than 10 targets for the receiving monster today, plenty of opportunities to post safe numbers.

With the Falcons offense rolling on Saturday, my expectation is this game will take on the shape of a good old fashioned shootout. I am sure the Hawks would prefer to stay with the ground game, but with quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,200 DFS salary) under center, they won’t shy from taking it to the air. Wilson has the ability to rise and play big and that’s what I would expect from the former Badger out of Wisconsin.

The Texans-Patriots matchup has the feel of a defensive battle, rather than shootout. The Patriots are always tough at home, the Texans offense is questionable on the road in this one, and the Texans defense is one of the best in the league. I am not expecting many fireworks in this one, but I do like Patriots running back Dion Lewis ($5,400 DFS salary) to heavily involved, especially in the passing game. Lewis averaged better than 16 touches per game over the last three weeks of the season. I would expect similar numbers in this one, but look for more involvement in the short passing game from Lewis.

As I speculate, the Texans-Patriots matchup will be more about the defense and one key factor will be place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800 DSF salary). Playing at home the Patriots defense will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Brock Osweiler and the Texans offense. Turnovers and short fields could dictate this one and Gostkowski will play big.

These are DFS plays I am leaning with today.

That’s my Take

~David G. Ortega

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January 7th, 2017
Saturday Morning Edition

Wildcard Saturday

With today’s games getting ready to heat up in less than 90 minutes, it’s time to take a look at some fantasy picks that could work for all of us DFS players.

At $7,400 salary, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins could be considered a risky value play today. Hopkins is coming off a down season from 2015, but he’s still a great talent with tremendous upside. With the Texans reverting back to quarterback Brock Osweiler, I would expect a concerted effort today to get the ball to Hopkins. The Raiders defense is beatable by leagues standards allowing the 12th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I expect to see Osweiler target the talented wideout no less than 10 times today; plenty of opportunities to make plays and find the end zone.

Another value play at $4,500 that is more of the sleeper variety is Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. Clearly the number two tight end and far down on the pecking order, Wilson’s value is most prominent in the red-zone. There’s no question the Lion’s defense will focus on trying to matchup with and slow down wide receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Jimmy Graham. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a handful of targets for Wilson (maybe 4-5 today), but likely most will come inside the 20 where he’s been effective. In his last two games, Wilson has 6 receptions, including two for touchdowns. The Lions secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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November 30th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ANDRE JOHNSON: To Start or Not-To Start
The Texans All-Pro receiver, Andre Johnson (knee) finally made his return to the field last Sunday against the Jaguars, after missing the past six games. His return was far from triumphant (just two catches for 22 yards), but it was a good sign for fantasy owners who will be hoping to see him return to form in week 14 (during the fantasy playoffs). That’s the good news.

The bad news for fantasy owners hoping to play Johnson now and into the playoffs; who will be under center for the Texans? Following their week 10 in over the Buccaneers, the Texans lost their starter Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury and just when it looked “all systems go” with back up quarterback Matt Lienart under center, he went down in week 12 with a broken collarbone. Now the Texans are left with an inexperienced rookie quarterback at the helm.

We know that rookie T.J Yates (North Carolina) will be taking the snaps on Sunday, but what we don’t know is how this is going to impact the offense and the passing game for fantasy owners. For those of us that have been riding all season long without one of our biggest weapons (Johnson), we could be submitting our lineups on Sunday with one of our biggest guns firing blanks or will he.

I am always the optimist and when I consider how high I drafted Johnson back in August, I can’t imagine sitting him on Sunday and seeing my fantasy team go down without all of my best players. For some it may look like fantasy-suicide, but is it really. On Sunday when Yates entered the game Johnson had only been targeted just once, a play in the first half that was nullified because of a penalty. In the second half Yates would look for #80 three times connecting twice for 22 yards.

While these numbers are nowhere near staggering it should be mentioned also that the Texans where well in control leading 20-10 and did not have to lean much on the pass. So if you project these numbers some, if Yates had started the game and the Jaguars offense been a little more effective in the early going, Johnson may have had a chance to see as many as six to seven targets (maybe a couple more in the early going) throughout the game.

My Analysis: This Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons would appear to pit the Texans up against an offense that could force them to be a little less conservative and have to keep pace. I would not expect a shoot-out of any sort, but the Falcons will certainly be more capable of putting up more than 13 points. Yates is going to have to stand in the pocket and make some throws and from we saw in week 12, he is more than capable of finding AJ. I would not expect a big game necessarily from Johnson, but I would not be surprised to see as many as 7-9 targets would come mean a very decent fantasy out-put; especially with this fantasy beast. Start him!


By David Ortega