FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2023

Monday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Christian Kirk, Current ADP 5.12 – Last season Kirk was the Jaguars leading receiver posting career highs in receptions (84), yards receiving (1,108), and receiving touchdowns (8).  He has improved every season and will be entering his 2nd year with the Jags. Kirk finished as the No.19 fantasy receiver in 2022 and is coming off the draft boards as WR30.

RB-Alvin Kamara, Current ADP 6.09 – The Saints running back will have to sit the first three games of this season due to suspension. He’s coming off the draft boards as the No.25 fantasy running back. Last season Kamara was the No.13 fantasy running back finishing the 2022 campaign with 897 yards rushing to along with 57 receptions, 490 yards receiving, and just a career low four total touchdowns.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
October 11th 2019

Week 6: Four Horsemen

QB-Gardner Minshew, JAX: The Jaguars quarterback has been a solid fantasy starter over the past 3 weeks, ranking as the No.8 fantasy QB. This week Minshew mania storms the field in Jacksonville to take on the Saints and a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past 4 weeks. In his last three starts Minshew has passed for 791 yards, 6 touchdowns, and zero picks. He’s a solid play for Week 6, start him!

RB-Le’Veon Bell, NYJ: The Jets running has been a high volume usage monster through four games this season, totalling 98 touches. Bell currently ranks as the No.17 fantasy RB and this week takes on a Dallas defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past 4 weeks. Bell has 27 receptions (ranks 3rd among RBs through 5 weeks) and has 166 receiving yards (ranks 9th). The Cowboys have allowed 37 receptions to opposing running backs, ranks tied for the 3rd most allowed through five weeks, so Bell owners can expect a busy Sunday for Jets ball carrier; start him. 

WR-Auden Tate, CIN: Cincinnati’s strolls into Baltimore on Sunday and Auden Tate will start as the Bengals No.2 receiver. With Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd likely being the focus of the Ravens defense, Tate figures to be the beneficiary. Over the past 4 weeks, the Ravens defense has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 873 receiving yards (3rd most). Tate is a bit of risky play, but the numbers show, he has upside potential play in this matchup; he’s my start.

TE-Greg Olsen, CAR: The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past 4 weeks, including 29 receptions and 391 receiving yards (most allowed). This Sunday Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, the No. 9 fantasy TE through 5 weeks will look to rebound after getting shutout in Week 5 and only totaling 2 receptions over his past two games. In week 2, Olsen finished with 6 receptions for 110 yards receiving against the same Bucs defense he will see on Sunday; start him. 

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 7 Diamonds in the Rough

I’m pretty sure if Titan’s wide receiver Eric Decker was available this week on Waiver wires, he was a popular choice of the consensus. Afterall, Decker is coming off a nice Monday night performance; he was targeted 9 times and caught 7 passes for 88 yards. These were very nice numbers in PPR for Week 6.

For a couple of names that may have been overlooked this week, I give you my Week 7 Diamonds in the rough;

Over the past three weeks, Vikings running back Latavius Murray has yet to take advantage of the opportunity that has been presented. He’s carried the ball 34 times for only 80 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. Right now he’s being outplayed by running back Jerick McKinnon and it’s not close. This week Murray will get his second opportunity facing a Ravens defense that allows better than 4 yards per carry and nearly 125 yards on the ground per game. In two of their last three games the Ravens have allowed a 100-yard rusher (Le’Veon Bell 144 yards in week 4 and Jordan Howard 167 yards this past Sunday). This could be the matchup Murray needs to get going.

Digging a little deeper on the Waiver Wire, the Jaguars wide receiver Marquise Lee has an interesting matchup this week. Last Sunday many figured facing a tough Rams defense, in a run-heavy offense Lee would have little value. With the loss of Allen Robinson back in week one, Lee has emerged as the team’s best receiver. In 6 games Lee leads the team in targets (40), yards receiving (291), and is 2nd in receptions (20). Last Sunday Lee dominated the action in the pass game with 10 targets (good enough for 5 catches and 83 yards), nearest to him was only 3. It’s not a great matchup this week for Lee, but it’s not bad. The Jags will face the Colts in week 7 and over the past 4 weeks, the Colts secondary has surrendered the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. If you’re digging, you’ll probably find Lee out there this week.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Week 4 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions: By the Numbers)

Time to check out our report card for last week and I have to tell you, it feels like getting a test back that you already know you didn’t do well. So let’s take a look. At quarterback we tanked with our Rivers picked. Apparently the Chargers move from San Diego to Los Angeles didn’t change a whole lot of things; three picks, no touchdowns

Who would’ve thought the Saints defense would show up in week 3 and on the road nonetheless. Running back Jonathan Stewart was basically held in check limited to just 61 total yards. Our receiver DeAndre Hopkins was busy last Sunday with 7 catches, but finishing as the No.30 fantasy WR (PPR) is not good enough. Tight end Jared Cook wasn’t far off the mark with 43 yards and score, finishing as the No.8 fantasy TE (PPR) last week. Running back Lamar Miller, our flex fared no better than Stewart, finishing with just 63 total yards. And for good measure the Steelers defense ranked 13th in fantasy last week.

Overall Grade D-

There’s no question it was a rough week, but maybe we can bounce back in a big way in Week 4;

Quarterback

It’s not been a good season thus far for picks, but I’m a gambler and I’ll play every time. This week I am riding with the rookie arm of Deshaun Watson. Ever since his debut as the starter in week 2 on Thursday night, I’ve been impressed. He had Mike Vick moves then and last week showed some grit standing toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots. He’s still a rookie and going to make mistakes, but I love his upside when you add in his running skills and Bill O’Brien’s play-calling. This week he’ll have more success against the Titans; 20 0f 30 passing, 185 yards passing, 1 TD pass, 1 Int, 45 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD.

Running Back

If I have any real bold picks here, this one will be the boldest of the bunch. This will be Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers last dance in the spotlight (start Doug Martin returns next week) and after a less than dismal week 3 finishing with just 15 yards rushing on 5 carries he’s going to be looking to bounce back in a big way. Last week was not a good week in general for the entire offense, but fortunately for Rodgers and company the Giants roll into town. Through 3 weeks, the G-men have not been good against the run. Let’s look at the numbers; ranked last against the run, allow 4.5 yards per carry, and allow 10th most fantasy points to opposing runners. The Bucs have enough weapons to keep the G-men from stacking the box; 75 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and a score.

Wide Receiver

Bold, maybe not, but playing the numbers yes. Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry was heavily targeted back in week two (15 targets) and followed that performance with 11 more last Sunday. His busy Sundays have yet to produce a lot of yards, 19 receptions for just 126 yards. So I am just playing the numbers on this one, Landry is getting opportunities and his week 4 matchup looks like a good one against the Saints (ranked 31st against the pass). It will be another busy Sunday for Landry; 8 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

I’m not going to mince words here with my week 4 tight end pick. What’s the saying, hard to keep a big man down or something like that? At 6’5” Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is nearly larger than life and after a hugely disappointing week 3 (just one catch), he’s bouncing back this week. You can count on Andy Reid making sure of that. It’s a great matchup against a Redskins defense that struggles against opposing tight ends; 7 catches, 75 yards receiving, a touchdown.

Flex

Over the past two weeks the Redskins rising star ball carrier Chris Thompson has been on a roll. I am a believer in the third time’s a charm. Thompson is electric in space, has great hands, and I believe Jay Gruden will game play to get the rock to him on Monday night. He’s my flex this week; 35 rushing yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, and a score.

Defense: And once again we are playing a team defense this week, since we love DFS. This week I am streaming the Jaguars defense. I am not expecting a repeat of last week’s domination, especially since entering this matchup, the Jets offense is coming off a good showing. The Jets are home this Sunday, so I’d expect them to keep some of that momentum this week. I am playing the numbers here and just like the Jags defense (the No.3 overall defense, number one in sacks-13, 2nd in turnover differential) too much to think McCown and company will be able to generate a lot of yards and points.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 11th 2017

Monday Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

The New Beast on the Block

This year’s NFL class of rookies is making quite an impression early this season with some strong debuts. One of the impressive performances on Sunday was turned in the Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette.

Fournette is a beast of a back out of LSU taken fourth overall in the 2017 NFL draft. He stands 6’1”, 228 lbs, and when he’s moving he’s at full steam, he’s a load to stop. As a sophomore at LSU Fournette set school records in rushing with 1,953 yards and touchdowns with 22. His 162.8 yards rushing per game average also earned him an NCAA rushing title.

On Sunday he made his NFL starting debut  and the Texans got a taste of the new Beast on the Block; the former Tiger did some serious damage. The Jags rookie runner trampled the Texans defense for 100 yards rushing on 26 carries and showed his versatility hauling in all three of his targets for another 24 yards.

Fournette proved on Sunday he can play with the big boys. Next up is Tennessee and another easy Sunday morning for the rookie.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th 2017

Monday afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

It’s the holiday and a great day to play fantasy football or at least draft a team and if you are like me, that’s just what you might be doing? And speaking of drafting, if that’s the case, here are a couple of more Studs and Duds to consider;

Studs (target these players)

If I am looking at an a wide receiver with an early pick, there are several that I like, but a big favorite for me this season has to be the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs 4th year wide receiver was the No. 3 fantasy receiver in 2016 (PPR format), No.1 in standard leagues. Evans has been a top flight receiver since his arrival in 2014 and last season he arrived; 96 receptions, 1,321 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has finished inside the Top-15 (PPR) twice in his three seasons and looks to be a lock to finish in the Top-5 this season. He and his quarterback Jameis Winston enjoy great chemistry and enter their third season together. I believe this season Evans takes the next step in fantasy and joins the elite.

An interesting signing in Philly this offseason has me looking at wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The former Bear will be a big target over the middle in the passing game and for young quarterback Carson Wentz, Jeffery will be an ideal red-zone threat. Jeffery looked good in the team’s third preseason game catching a couple of passes, including a score and if that’s any indication of what fantasy owners can expect, drafting Alshon early should pay dividends. Jeffery is currently going off the board around the No. 18 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to FFC); I like him here, would even consider taking him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor.

Duds (drafting too high)

It seems one of the hottest fantasy stocks in current drafts is the Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. I’ve heard a lot of the noise too, Andy Reid likes his guys, but remember Hunt did not win this job (not to say he’s not deserving or capable), but he is the starter now by default with running back Spencer Ware going down for the season. Hunt may in fact play very well for the Chiefs this season, but I think that’s really a little too early to call. The Chiefs still have running backs Charcandrick West and (resigned) CJ Spiller who may compete for touches. Hunt is currently going off the boards as the No. 10 fantasy back (in PPR formats according to FFC), but that’s just a little too rich and high expectation for my blood with proven runners like Todd Gurley (heavy volume), Isaiah Crowell (volume), Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde (all Top-20 last season) still on the board.

Now this may be the most controversial thus far this season for me, but I’ve seen the Jaguars passing offense and I am just wondering how rookie running back Leonard Fournette is going to find any room to run. The big back out of LSU is expected to see plenty of opportunity this season, but could be slow out of the gate dealing with a foot injury. He’s also expected to anchor the running game for a bad offense (ranked 23rd last season) that struggled on the ground (ranked 22nd in 2016). Fournette will add improvement, but the Jags also have a few other backs that could carve out small roles in the offense. For his rookie campaign, I can see Fournette finishing in the 20-24 fantasy running back range, but not at his current ADP of 3.03, the No.13 fantasy running back off the board (in PPR). He’ll fare better in standard, but he’s one player I will relax on and look to take a round or two later (if available).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Player Watch: 

We have an early game this morning, so real quick just going to throw this one out there. The Jaguars want to run the ball to compliment their pass game, this is why they acquired running back Chris Ivory.

Last week Ivory made his debut as a Jag, but the start was anything but memorable. Today could be very different. The last time Ivory was in London, his day was memorable with 166 yards on the ground. He was a jet at the time.

He could take a stroll down memory lane today, facing a Colts defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs, over 4 yards per carry this season, and 4 rushing scores. Ivory should be featured in the run game and if he is, look out it could be a very good day.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY'S TAKES

Thursday Edition
November 8th, 2012  

Thursdays Take

Notes

Tonight’s quick takes include quite a few names for a matchup lacking marquee appeal. Starting with the obvious wide receiver Reggie Wayne leads the league in targets this season with 101. You can bet he’s going to be on the radar throughout the evening and should be very productive against the Jaguars 24th ranked pass defense.

Throwing passes all night to Wayne will be rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. He’s a gamer and it will be tough to pass on starting him tonight unless you are carrying one of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. The Jaguars defense allows the 17th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but last week the Lions Matthew Stafford torched them for over 300 yards without a touchdown pass (although there were many chances). Luck should see many opportunities, but expect him to capitalize.

On the other side, the Jaguars offense will be facing a Colts defense that has struggled to shut down folks. Running back Rashad Jennings is going to see a heavy load and facing a Colts defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, he’s going to play well. Jennings is only a flex option in most leagues, but could be considered a low end RB2 in much deeper leagues.

The one to watch this evening is going to be the Colts number two receiver Donnie Avery. The speedy wide out has shown flashes this season and last week was starting to come on with a big effort before injury shut him down. Avery finishes last week with 5 grabs for 108 yards. Tonight against the Jaguars, who will also have to worry about Wayne and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, Avery could be poised for a big evening. Expect Luck to take a few shots and Avery to cash at least one in. I am really high on this guy and believe a big game is coming; could it be tonight?


By David Ortega

FSH: MORE FANTASY TALK

September 11th, 2009 9:37pm PST

A Big Arm with Big Hopes

Time to bounce back….

Following the 2008 season there were probably many folks who did not believe that David Garrard was a ready for primetime NFL quarterback despite his strong 2007 season. Well could that be any further from the truth?

Last season was not only one to forget for Garrard, but one the Jaguars would also love to forget as well. Finishing the season with a 5-11 record, one area of big concern for the Jags was the offense and it’s lack of production in the passing game (ranked 15th last season). The passing game only generated 15 touchdown passes (ranked tied for 24th) and averaged only 6.7 yards per pass (ranked tied for 19th). Upgrades are going to be a priority in 2009.

While Garrard’s ineffectiveness (13 interceptions) last season seemed to be a major cause for the offenses deficiencies, the truth of the matter is the real cause was up front. Garrard was a victim of his team’s bad luck. A decimated with injury offensive line and poor pass protection were the biggest culprits for the team’s offensive demise. Garrard was hit and hurried countless times last season and the line surrendered 42 sacks (ranked 25th).

With a new season on the horizon, the team is healthier and seems to be addressing many of these needs from last seasons’ debacle. In the offseason the team acquired veteran receiver Torry Holt, who they believe has something left. Holt will give Garrard that veteran leader and go-to receiver over the middle that he can look to in crunch time. The sudden emergence of wide receiver Troy Williamson (22-yards per catch this preseason) could give the offense that boost it needs to stretch the field. Joining the cause once again this season to help Garrard and the offense will be 6-foot six-inch tight end Marcedes Lewis who can beat the defense down the seams.

Just two years ago, Garrard ranked among the best passers with a 102.2 passer rating. This preseason he’s already shown glimpses of returning to that form with great accuracy (28 of 43 passing, 65 percent completion). Garrard also adds that extra dynamic of mobility rushing for 322 yards in 2008. In the offseason the team addressed their biggest concerns by drafting offensive lineman Eugene Monroe with the 8th overall draft pick. He’s still a work in progress, but his addition will give the line depth and plenty of size (Monroe is 6’5” and over 300-lbs).

2008 is now a distant memory for Jacksonville and quarterback David Garrard. With the 2009 season already underway, it’s time for big arms, to aim for big dreams and reach new heights. Garrard is going to be well overlooked in many fantasy drafts and will fall to the late rounds. With a late round pick he’s a great value QB2 and he’ll offer plenty of upside. (2009 Predictions: 285 of 440 passing, 3,315-yards passing, 24 touchdown passes, 9 interceptions, 205 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns)

By David Ortega


Check back for more “Fantasy Talk”

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 7th, 2009 11:07pm PST

18 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Jacksonville Jaguars....
The Jaguars will have an interesting decision to make come draft day. With Matt Jones, Joey Porter, and Reggie Williams gone, the team now has a screaming need at the wideout position. Currently on the roster and projected starters are Mike Walker and Dennis Northcutt; not your ordinary household names.

With the number eight pick the Jags will undoubtedly be looking at this years crop of receiving talent. Michael Crabtree will be high on their board, although it's not likely he would fall this far. Names like Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, and Darrius Heyward-Bey could very easily be sitting at number eight when the Jags reach the big board. Garrard has not had much talent to throw to since he won the job and it's pretty certain the team will be looking at this year's draft to bring in some talent.

If the Jags don't find a preferable wide receiver pick available when the clock starts, they could turn their attention to another pressing need along the offensive line. Even if Garrard doesn't have premium targets to throw to, he'll still need time in the pocket to make plays. Offensive tackle Andre Smith from the University of Alabama could end up being a serious consideration for Jacksonville come draft day.

(Photo by Marvin Gentry/US Presswire)

Before the combine, Smith was considered a possible top five pick and maybe the best tackle available in this year's draft. Don't be surprised if Del Rio and company decide he's a project worth investing in for the long term. Smith is huge at 6'5" and 340-lbs, and although he's a risk with a questionable work ethic, it's one that could pay huge dividends for Jacksonville in the future.

Check back every day for more "On the Ticker!"