FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition

September 28th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 4 Running Backs

Week 4 has some interesting twists and matchups, but with three weeks in the books (nearly a quarter of the regular season), we have a much better feel of what to expect….or do we?

Cedric Benson, GB

There’s absolutely no reason to believe that (head coach) Mike McCarthy’s Packers are going to change anything about how they attack opposing defenses, but I definitely think he’s not too smart for his own good. The Packers throw the ball and just about better than anyone else in the league, but facing the league’s worst run defense this week, they will run; enter Mr. Benson. Cedric is not off to a hot start this season, but he’s shown he can still be productive when called on; in week 2 he toted the rock 20 times for 81 yards. This week against the Saints (allowing 5 yards per carry) Benson should have little trouble finding running room; he’s a good low end RB2 this week.

Alfred Morris, WAS

The Redskins main guy in the backfield, rookie running back Alfred Morris is enjoying a solid 2012 campaign, ranked 9th in rushing with three touchdowns and a solid 4.3 yards per carry average. On Sunday he’ll line up in the backfield set to take on the Buccaneers stout number one ranked run defense. Morris is not going to find too many holes on Sunday, but facing the Bucs shaky secondary (ranked last in the league) the Redskins should still enjoy plenty of success moving the ball, putting Morris in line to add to his three scores this season. He’s not going to tally big numbers on the ground, but Morris should still be a safe low end RB2 play this week.

Stevan Ridley, NE

Ranked 11th in rushing this season (233 yards rushing), with five receptions for another 51 yards, the Patriots running back Stevan Ridley is finding plenty of ways to stay productive on Sunday. He’s only managed to cross the goal line once this season, but facing the Bills 15th ranked run defense (17th overall), I like Ridley’s chances to find pay-dirt at least once on Sunday. I am not too high on this kid this week, but I think Ridley will manage 80-plus yards with a score; a safe RB2 this week.

Willis McGahee, DEN

Despite the injury concerns surrounding Broncos running back Willis McGahee, he is expected to play and should play well this Sunday against the league’s 23rd ranked defense. The Raiders have issues in the secondary and could be in for a long afternoon trying to cover the Bronco’s receivers. With success in the air, holes should be open for McGahee to find and even a couple of trips into the red zone. I expect to see McGahee get at least one in the end-zone this week against the Raiders run defense that has already yielded four touchdowns on the ground this season; start him.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The Jaguars offense has been far from fantasy stellar this season, but they have not been all that bad, especially running back Maurice Jones-Drew (ranked 3rd in rushing). Mo-Jo may have held out, but it looks like he kept in pretty good shape tallying 314 yards thus far this season on the ground. MJD has also kept himself active in the pass game with 8 receptions in three games. He’ll face the leagues 31st ranked run defense (Bengals) that is allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry and over 150 yards on the ground per contest. It’s never easy to predict big games, but it’s easy to say Mo-Jo is a solid RB1 this week.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAYS TAKE

Thursday Edition

September 27th, 2012 

Thursdays Take

Starts

The Ravens quarterback has looked solid this season and with a favorable matchup tonight against the Browns tonight he should continue his hot hand. The Browns defense has been torched for eight touchdowns and nearly 270 yards per game this season, expect Flacco to use his no huddle to keep the defense off balance  and with sound ground game he should be effective over-the-top; he’s a must start tonight.

The Ravens running back Ray Rice has been a solid fantasy play and one of the most consistent options dating back to last year. Rice has totaled 395 yards of offense and scored three times this season, facing the league’s 22^nd ranked run defense tonight he should be good for another 100 yards plus night and a score. His 14 receptions through three games this season also make him a most attractive option in PPR leagues; he’s so good that he’s almost good enough to start during his bye week (but we wouldn’t).

The rookie running back Trent Richardson is off to a slow start this season, but now that his health is back he should see plenty of opportunity tonight against a Ravens defense that is ranked 18^th in the league. The Ravens are surrendering more than 100 yards per game on the ground, but their 3.3 yards per carry average mean Richardson is going to have to work for his. The rookie also has 11 catches this season, so he’ll also be productive in the pass game. He’s not in line for a monster game, but he should be more than serviceable as a low end RB2 this.

Sits

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden could have plenty of success completing passes for lots of yards, but facing a tough foe like the Ravens defense he's likely to take a number if hits and sacks. The Ravens could jump out quick in this one and force Weeden to have to put the ball up early and often. Expect too many turnovers tonight to be a good fantasy play; leave him on your bench.

Browns’ wide receiver Greg Little has been more than inconsistent and a disappointment as a fantasy option this season, but then again being a part of the Browns offense expectations were never that high. His recent struggles include drops (2^nd in NFL in 2011) and it sounds like he may see little time on the field tonight, if any. He appears to be one fantasy option worth avoiding at this time.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition

September 26th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

The Northwest Nightmare

We all knew the Seahawks had a pretty good defense, but few knew what head coach Pete Carroll was really putting together in Seattle. On Monday night before a national audience Carroll unleashed the "Northwest Nightmare" on quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.

The Seahawks brought a relentless pass rush that was in Rodgers face most of the night and in his grill 8 times in the first half. Leading the teams eight sack assault in the first two quarters were Chris Clemons (4 sacks) and rookie Bruce Irvin (2 sacks). To his credit Carroll has always coached a pretty good defense, but what he is serving up in the northwest is hotter than a cup of joe and sure to cause a many sleepless nights for opposing quarterbacks and offenses.

To break it down, in three games this season the Seahawks defense has been much better than good. The squad ranks first in the league with 13 points allowed per game, they are second in the league against the run and 4^th overall. With 10 sacks this season the defense ranks 3^rd and their 6 yards per pass is ranked 5^th. In fantasy standard scoring the Seahawks defense has posted 33 points (ranked T-4^th)

The bottom line, all added up this means the Seahawks are a top fantasy defense and with a week 4 matchup against the Rams a must-start.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition

September 26th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

The Jam is Back

If you are a Chiefs fan and like your PB sandwich sweet, you are in luck because the Jam is back in Kansas City. The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles made a huge return to elite status this past Sunday with a huge rushing effort against the Saints.

Charles had a breakout game rushing for 233 yards (on 33 carries) and adding another 55 yards on 6 receptions. Most notable in Charles outstanding effort was his explosive burst displayed on a 91- yard dash for a touchdown. Charles showed his old explosion and big play ability putting to rest any fears of possible rust coming off his knee injury from a year ago. As Jam continues to play with more confidence expect to see same big game results.

When healthy, Charles is one of the most dangerous runners in the game today with game changing spped, skill, and talent. He's an elite runner with top tier fantasy running back value going forward; he's a must start every Sunday.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKE

Monday Edition

September 24th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

QUICK TAKES

A Star is Born

The Giants may have found themselves a rising star in wide receiver Ramses Barden after his breakout performance (9 catches, 138 yards receiving) in week 3 against the Carolina Panthers; fantasy owners may have just found themselves a diamond in the rough. Barden has the ideal size and build to be a huge weapon for Eli and the Giants offense going forward, but fantasy owners should exercise some patience and caution until he has proven he has the skill to perform at a high level consistently. 

The good news, with the return of wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (at some point soon: week 4 or 5) to the lineup Barden should get plenty of opportunity in the future to continue to showcase his talents.  He's definitely worthy of a grab and stash off the waiver wires this week, but we'd wait a bit before riding his coat-tails. 

Value: a low flex option at the moment until we see more.

By David Ortega