FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Another week of exciting DFS and this week I am liking a lot what I am rolling out for Sunday (Week 4) on Fan Duel;

QB-Matthew Stafford ($7,700): At his price I am a big fan of Stafford this week. The Vikings are stout versus the run and the Lions don’t run the ball particularly well, leaving Stafford as the best option. The Vikings defense has allowed the 5th most passing yards this season and the 5th most completions. Stafford has been quiet the past two weeks, but that all could change this Sunday.

RB-LeSean McCoy ($8,300): The Bills running back was held in check last week against the No.3 run defense in the league, but this week Shady gets a crack at the No.8 run defense (Falcons). Through 3 weeks the Falcons defense has faced the 4th fewest carries in the league, but they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry (3rd highest in the league). This plays right up McCoy’s alley. He should see a hefty load of carries on Sunday and bounce back from week 3

RB-Christian McCaffrey ($6,400): This is one of my bargain plays this week. The rookie running back should be plenty involved in the pass game for a second straight week and with a matchup against the Patriots 25th ranked run defense, he could see some daylight on the ground. I’d expect McCaffrey to notch somewhere between 14-16 touches; that should be plenty for him to post double figure fantasy points.

WR-Stefon Diggs ($7,200): The Vikings receiver was huge last week, so can he do it two weeks in a row. I am a believer, but more than that, Keenum has found a groove and the Vikings passing game has new life. Entering week 4, the Lions have allowed the 8th most receptions to opposing receivers. I like Diggs chances to push that total higher this week.

WR-Alshon Jeffery ($7,100): The Eagles are traveling out west this week and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could be fantasy gold in DFS. That may be a little of an over exaggeration, but he should be a strong play this week against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Jeffery is seeing a steady diet of targets each week, so he should be good to go this Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,300): In the same matchup I am just as high on the Chargers Keenan Allen. The Eagles have played pretty well through the first three weeks, but their secondary is shaky; most receptions to opposing receivers, 7th most receiving yards allowed and 11th most fantasy points. Allen is far and away the number one option in the passing game and this Sunday he should rebound from a sub-par week 3 outing.

TE-Jimmy Graham ($6,200): Last week Graham was questionable leading into the team’s week 3 matchup. He responded with a decent showing, 7 receptions for 72 yards. This week isn’t so much about Graham’s matchup against the Colts, but more rather about his 11 targets last week. The Seahawks ground attack is in neutral, so it’s safe to bet they will rely on Wilson’s arm. Graham is a favorite and should be plenty busy Sunday night.

K-Ryan Succop ($4,600): The Titans should be able to move the ball okay against the Texans this week, but being a divisional matchup this one will likely be close and involve a lot of kicking. I see the Titans entering the red-zone quite often, but may have to settle for a few kicks. At his $4,600 price, Ryan Succop is a favorite this week.

DST-Jaguars ($5,200): The Jags are on the road, but as well as their defense has played, you have to love their matchup against the Jets. The defense leads the league in sacks, and they are ranked 3rd overall. The Jets offense isn’t the worst in the league, but ranked 28th in the league this is a good fit and play for the Jags in week 4.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Week 4 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions: By the Numbers)

Time to check out our report card for last week and I have to tell you, it feels like getting a test back that you already know you didn’t do well. So let’s take a look. At quarterback we tanked with our Rivers picked. Apparently the Chargers move from San Diego to Los Angeles didn’t change a whole lot of things; three picks, no touchdowns

Who would’ve thought the Saints defense would show up in week 3 and on the road nonetheless. Running back Jonathan Stewart was basically held in check limited to just 61 total yards. Our receiver DeAndre Hopkins was busy last Sunday with 7 catches, but finishing as the No.30 fantasy WR (PPR) is not good enough. Tight end Jared Cook wasn’t far off the mark with 43 yards and score, finishing as the No.8 fantasy TE (PPR) last week. Running back Lamar Miller, our flex fared no better than Stewart, finishing with just 63 total yards. And for good measure the Steelers defense ranked 13th in fantasy last week.

Overall Grade D-

There’s no question it was a rough week, but maybe we can bounce back in a big way in Week 4;

Quarterback

It’s not been a good season thus far for picks, but I’m a gambler and I’ll play every time. This week I am riding with the rookie arm of Deshaun Watson. Ever since his debut as the starter in week 2 on Thursday night, I’ve been impressed. He had Mike Vick moves then and last week showed some grit standing toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots. He’s still a rookie and going to make mistakes, but I love his upside when you add in his running skills and Bill O’Brien’s play-calling. This week he’ll have more success against the Titans; 20 0f 30 passing, 185 yards passing, 1 TD pass, 1 Int, 45 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD.

Running Back

If I have any real bold picks here, this one will be the boldest of the bunch. This will be Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers last dance in the spotlight (start Doug Martin returns next week) and after a less than dismal week 3 finishing with just 15 yards rushing on 5 carries he’s going to be looking to bounce back in a big way. Last week was not a good week in general for the entire offense, but fortunately for Rodgers and company the Giants roll into town. Through 3 weeks, the G-men have not been good against the run. Let’s look at the numbers; ranked last against the run, allow 4.5 yards per carry, and allow 10th most fantasy points to opposing runners. The Bucs have enough weapons to keep the G-men from stacking the box; 75 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and a score.

Wide Receiver

Bold, maybe not, but playing the numbers yes. Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry was heavily targeted back in week two (15 targets) and followed that performance with 11 more last Sunday. His busy Sundays have yet to produce a lot of yards, 19 receptions for just 126 yards. So I am just playing the numbers on this one, Landry is getting opportunities and his week 4 matchup looks like a good one against the Saints (ranked 31st against the pass). It will be another busy Sunday for Landry; 8 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

I’m not going to mince words here with my week 4 tight end pick. What’s the saying, hard to keep a big man down or something like that? At 6’5” Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is nearly larger than life and after a hugely disappointing week 3 (just one catch), he’s bouncing back this week. You can count on Andy Reid making sure of that. It’s a great matchup against a Redskins defense that struggles against opposing tight ends; 7 catches, 75 yards receiving, a touchdown.

Flex

Over the past two weeks the Redskins rising star ball carrier Chris Thompson has been on a roll. I am a believer in the third time’s a charm. Thompson is electric in space, has great hands, and I believe Jay Gruden will game play to get the rock to him on Monday night. He’s my flex this week; 35 rushing yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, and a score.

Defense: And once again we are playing a team defense this week, since we love DFS. This week I am streaming the Jaguars defense. I am not expecting a repeat of last week’s domination, especially since entering this matchup, the Jets offense is coming off a good showing. The Jets are home this Sunday, so I’d expect them to keep some of that momentum this week. I am playing the numbers here and just like the Jags defense (the No.3 overall defense, number one in sacks-13, 2nd in turnover differential) too much to think McCown and company will be able to generate a lot of yards and points.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 TE Rankings

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jimmy Graham

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jared Cook

7. Jordan Reed

8. Jason Witten

9. Charles Clay

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Eric Ebron

12. Cameron Brate

13. Coby Fleener

14. Ryan Griffin

15. Julius Thomas

16. Jack Doyle

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Evan Engram

19. Jesse James

20. Antonio Gates

21. Austin Hooper

22. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

23. Hunter Henry

24. Vernon Davis

25. David Njoku

As long as he’s healthy and playing Rob Gronkowski tops the list. He’s scored in two straight games and even though by normal standards he doesn’t have a great matchup, this is Gronk. He’s coming off a 10 target game in week 3 and should be in line for a similar workload and that’s why he tops the list.

Travis Kelce, A.K.A Zuess is my number two this week. He’s coming off a very disappointing week 3 (1 target, 1 catch for 1 yard), but don’t let that deter you from rolling with him in week 4. Kelce will definitely see more than a single target this week going up against a Redskins defense that have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

I moved Redskins tight end Jordan Reed into my 7 spot this week. Reed is typically a tough matchup for any defender; his biggest obstacle is usually his health. If Reed plays, expect him to be involved in the passing game. He’s been quiet thus far this season, so there will be no better time for Reed to make noise than Monday night.

I have Coby Fleener seated at the No.13 spot this week. He’s a borderline starter taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a better than 78 percent completion rate. It’s a great matchup, but always tough to gauge since Brees can really distribute the ball and has a lot of mouths to feed.

I have moved Chargers tight end Hunter Henry down to the 23rd spot. Rivers is a gunslinger and with receivers like Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, running back Melvin Gordon, and the other tight end Antonio Gates, just too many cooks in the kitchen. Henry will be tough to trust until we see more consistent involvement in the pass game; zero catches and zero targets.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 4 WR Rankings

Wide Receivers

1. Julio Jones

2. Antonio Brown

3. AJ Green

4. Odell Beckham Jr

5. Keenan Allen

6. DeAndre Hopkins

7. Stefon Diggs

8. Mike Evans

9. Michael Thomas

10. Brandin Cooks

11. Dez Bryant

12. Alshon Jeffery

13. Demaryius Thomas

14. Tyreek Hill

15. Amari Cooper

16. Jarvis Landry

17. Golden Tate

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Larry Fitzgerald

20. TY Hilton

21. Doug Baldwin

22. Devante Parker

23. Michael Crabtree

24. Emmanuel Sanders

25. Adam Thielen

26. Chris Hogan

27. Pierre Garcon

28. Rishard Matthews

29. Marquise Lee

30. Martavis Bryant

Julio Jones leads the band this week. He’s been held quiet (no touchdowns) through the first three weeks (No.23 fantasy WR), but will look to get things going this week. He’s listed as questionable, so you’ll want to check his injury status before game-time. But if he’s out there, he’s my number one this week matched against the Bills 9th ranked pass defense that’s allowed the 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers.

I’ve got the Chargers receiver Keenan Allen coming in at No.5 this week. Allen sees a healthy diet of targets each week averaging 9.3 per game and this week’s matchup is right up his alley. The Chargers face the Eagles this week and Allen will be lining up against a secondary that has allowed the most receptions (49) to opposing receivers this season.

Slotted right behind Allen is the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He’s the most targeted receiver in the league and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. The Titans allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, so I like Hopkins chances at getting plenty of looks on Sunday.

Stefon Diggs is the No.1 fantasy WR through three weeks and he’s had success in the past against the Lions. I like his chances this Sunday even with quarterback Case Keenum under center. The Lions don’t shut down allowing the 10th most receptions to opposing receivers. Diggs has been efficient and effective and will be looking to build off his huge week 3 performance.

I’ve got the Dolphins receivers (both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker) slotted a little higher this week. They’ll be playing in London against a Saints defense that has struggled this season against the pass. I have a feeling this matchup is going to be filled with a lot of points. Landry should see a large volume of short passes to carry his value, while Parker may get his hands on a long score this week.

One more notable is the Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree. I’ve moved him down considerably this week, since he’ll have a tough task getting open against the Broncos dreaded “No Fly Zone.” The Broncos have not been elite this season, but they have been effective and Crabtree has struggled in the past against Denver.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 RB Rankings

Running Backs (does not include Thurs)

1. Kareem Hunt

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Jay Ajayi

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Todd Gurley

7. Le’Veon Bell

8. Dalvin Cook

9. Leonard Fournette

10. DeMarco Murray

11. Melvin Gordon

12. Marshawn Lynch

13. Carlos Hyde

14. CJ Anderson

15. Lamar Miller

16. Chris Carson

17. Christian McCaffrey

18. Ameer Abdullah

19. Joe Mixon

20. Terrance West

21. Mark Ingram

22. Jonathan Stewart

23. Frank Gore

24. Chris Thompson

25. Isaiah Crowell

26. Mike Gillislee

27. Jacquizz Rodgers

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Duke Johnson

30. Javorius Allen

The Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt has been on fire to start the season and back on the big stage Monday night against the Redskins he’s looking to continue. He may find little space this week against the Redskins 4th ranked run defense, but no way is he sitting. Hunt has the big play knack and with 137 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns he has great value in PPR regardless.

I am running with Bills running back LeSean McCoy in week 4. Last week the Broncos number three ranked run defense had the no.17 fantasy runner boxed up, but this week McCoy gets the Falcons. It should be easier sledding for the Bills ball carrier facing a Falcons defense that ranks 8th, but has seen the 4th fewest carries and allows the 3rd most yards per carry.

I am not down on Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell this week, just keeping his numbers real at No. 7 this week. Bell is currently ranked as the No.15 fantasy running back, but should do well this week facing the Ravens 18th ranked run defense.

I’ve move Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch down a few spots this week, but owners proceed with caution. The Broncos run defense has been stout through three weeks, no reason to see this change. Yards will be hard to find, but Lynch will see the lionshare and could get some goal line work for an short score.

In the same game, I am not real high on Broncos running back CJ Anderson. He’ll likely see his usual workload, but what could derail his efforts is Jamaal Charles. If Charles gets into the game and has early success, he could cut into Anderson’s carries.

I’ve moved Redskins running back Chris Thompson up to No.24 this week, but don’t be surprised if he cracks the Top-20. Thompson has been on fire the past two weeks and as the rest of the offense heats up, Thompson’s upside skyrockets. Last week Thompson recorded 14 touches, expect the Redskins to try and get him to that number again this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 QB Rankings

Quarterbacks (does not include Thurs)

1. Tom Brady

2. Drew Brees

3. Matt Ryan

4. Marcus Mariota

5. Jameis Winston

6. Russell Wilson

7. Matthew Stafford

8. Derek Carr

9. Alex Smith

10. Carson Wentz

11. Dak Prescott

12. Carson Palmer

13. Kirk Cousins

14. Ben Roethlisberger

15. Trevor Siemian

16. Cam Newton

17. Philip Rivers

18. Jay Cutler

19. Tyrod Taylor

20. Deshaun Watson

Starting at the top, of course we got Tom Brady leading the way, but a close second is quarterback Drew Brees. His strong performance last week was a reminder to not count the old man out. Brees looks as good as ever and I actually like this matchup for him on Sunday against the Dolphins. In two games the Dolphins have allowed a 79 percent completion rate. If you allow Brees to complete a high rate of passes, he has plenty of weapons to do a lot of damage.

I’ve moved up Russell Wilson considerably this week. He’s got a nice matchup at home this Sunday against the Colts and he’s coming off a big week 3 performance. The biggest key that leads me to believe Wilson will have another big day, his line is struggling in the run game. The Seahawks are ranked 20th in rushing this season and their 3.8 yards per carry is ranked 17th. If that’s any indication, how about Wilson’s 49 passes last week.; he’s in your lineup this week.

Derek Carr is moving down this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos. I’ve only moved him down to the No. 8 spot, considering how the Broncos defense struggled to contain Tyrod Taylor last week. This season Denver’s defense is allowing the 12th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. It’s a bounce back week, but let’s not go crazy.

Also sliding up considerably this week is the Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer. Through 3 weeks, Palmer is sitting at No. 15, but this is a good week for him to move up with a matchup against the Niners 14th ranked pass defense that’s allowed 6 touchdowns this season. He’s a borderline starter for week 4.

One more notable addition to my Top-20 this week is the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Last week was impressive, but this kid has been impressive each week he steps on the field. Watson has great elusiveness and has playmaking ability not just with his arms, but his legs. Every week is going to be a tough matchup for the rookie, but I think he’ll continue to impress.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega