FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 10 Fantasy Notes

With the start of Sunday’s games less than 24 hours away, here’s a rundown of notes for some of the Week 10 matchups;

GB @ CHI

The Bears running back Jordan Howard has been a beast of a runner this season racking up 662 yards rushing (ranks 5th) which include three 100-yard efforts, He’ll face a Packers defense that ranks 22nd against the run and allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

CLE @ DET

Normally not a team that runs much, but for the Lions this week they may be forced to lean even more on Matthew Stafford and their passing game. The Lions face the Browns number 4 ranked run defense, so look for Marvin Jones Jr and Stafford to play big in this one.

PIT @  IND

With the return of Martavis Bryant this week, the Steelers will be employing all of their Killer Bees; Ben, Bell, Brown, and Bryant. It’s a road game, but with the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster it will be Big Ben and his JuJu-Bees on Sunday; look for big numbers from Roethlisberger.

NYJ @ TB

Across the board, this looks like a good matchup for the Jets offense. The Bucs defense has struggled this season and in particular against opposing wide receivers allowing the 2nd most receptions. In DFS and PPR formats and especially I’m all in with Jets receiver Robby Anderson; Sunday could be a big day.

MIN @ WAS

A couple of notes in this one, with Redskins tight end Jordan Reed not 100 percent with a big questionable tag for Sunday, Vernon Davis figures to see a more prominent role in the passing game. On the other side, the Vikings will have a healthy Stefon Diggs on the field. With Diggs healthy, his presence will draw some of the Redskins attention away from Adam Thielen; a week 10 favorite

HOU @ LAR

The Rams offense is rolling and with a home tilt against the ailing Texans, this week, the wheels will keep turning. All eyes on the defense will be focused on Todd Gurley, but facing a secondary that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, we could see Sammy Watkins heavily in the mix.

DAL @ ATL

The Falcons will play host to the Cowboys and their 15th ranked secondary that’s allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. With all the attention likely to be focused on Julio Jones, Sunday looks like a good day for Mohamed Sanu to find pay dirt.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 TE Rankings

Gronk will top my Week 8 list in a matchup that has the potential of being a Sunday Shootout at Foxboro. Gronk has been up and down some this season and this game has the potential of being one of his up games.

I have Redskins tight end Jordan Reed climbing the board to No.6 this week. The Cowboys defense has been solid against opposing tight ends, but the Redskins and Reed will be a big test. Reed has quiet numbers this season as the No.14 fantasy TE (PPR), but over his last two games he’s been targeted 15 times, turning in a stat line of 12/101/2.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Zach Ertz

3. Travis Kelce

4. Hunter Henry

5. Kyle Rudolph

6. Jordan Reed

7. Jimmy Graham

8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

9. Cameron Brate

10. Jason Witten

11. Tyler Kroft

12. Jared Cook

13. Jack Doyle

14. Zach Miller

15. George Kittle

16. Austin Hooper

17. Nick O’leary

18. Vernon Davis

19. Ed Dickson

20. OJ Howard

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 6 TE Rankings

Despite what on paper looks like a tough matchup this Sunday against the Steelers, I have Travis Kelce in as my No.2 tight end this week. He’s a primary weapon in an offense that’s running in high gear. The Steelers have good numbers against tight ends, but they have yet to face this caliber of a tight end. Kelce cleared the concussion protocol and was left on the Chiefs injury report. He’s good to go.

Sliding up to the No.6 spot this week is the Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. He’s moved past Gates in productivity this season and has scored in two straight contests. He’s got a good shot at making it three in a row with a matchup against the Raiders on Sunday. Last season against the Silver and Black, Henry found the end zone in both games played.

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3. Delanie Walker

4. Jordan Reed

5. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

6. Hunter Henry

7. Martellus Bennett

8. Evan Engram

9. Cameron Brate

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Coby Fleener

12. Jared Cook

13. Zach Miller

14. George Kittle

15. Benjamin Watson

16. Jack Doyle

17. AJ Derby

18. Ryan Griffin

19. Austin Hooper

20. Vernon Davis

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

After a wild weekend with some big surprises, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Prime-Time spectacle with the Redskins traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere tonight, as it typically is at Arrowhead Stadium; and Monday night will surely amplify the excitement.

My Takes

Quarterback Kirk Cousins; the Redskins signal caller finally got things going in week 3 against the Raiders. It was a strong showing and solid performance by Cousins that helped lead the Redskins. Tonight he’ll be away from the comfy confines of home and take his show on the road into hostile territory. The Chiefs defense has held up pretty tough this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but they can be had; in week 2 the Chiefs did allow the second most fantasy points (24.8) to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins played great last week and will try to bring the same momentum into tonight, but road games are always tough. I’d expect Cousins to hang in there, but a big game is likely not on the slate; more like 16-18 fantasy points would be in line.

Running backs Chris Thompson & Samaje Perine; the main production tonight will likely come from the more versatile back of the two, Chris Thompson. Samaje (if Rob Kelley is out) is going to see a lot of the 1st and 2nd down work, but Thompson will be sprinkled in all facets and see heavy use in the passing game. Samaje is likely to find little running room against the Chiefs No.7 ranked run defense, owners may want to sit him tonight. Thompson on the other hand has been on fire and while many may believe it’s time for the flames to fan, I like him in the flex tonight. Thompson should see about a half dozen carries or so and get work 7-9 targets in the pass game.

Wide receivers Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, & Jamison Crowder; I’ll run through these real quick; still waiting on Terrelle Pryor to arrive in 2017 and not expecting to see much tonight against Marcus Peters. Crowder is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays while he is a safe play currently his ceiling seems limited; averaging just 6.0 targets the first three weeks. Cousins does spread the ball around pretty good, but the sleeper tonight to watch is wide receiver Josh Doctson. Last week he only had 2 targets, but did connect on a long shot for 52 yards. As time passes, we may see him get more involved.

Tight ends Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis; Always the risk it seems, the play at tight end here is Reed (if he’s healthy). Reed has been a non-factor the first three weeks playing in 2 games. His numbers are not what we expect from a TE1, hyped as he was in the preseason. He’ll be looking to get things going tonight against the Chiefs who struggle with the TE spot. If Reed is out, insert Davis who fared well in week 3 with 5 grabs for 58 yards and a score.

Quarterback Alex Smith; the Chiefs quarterback had a modest week 3 and with the Redskins coming to town, that’s about what I’d normally expect for tonight. You’re probably not starting Smith tonight in smaller redraft leagues, maybe two QB leagues only. The Chiefs will lean on the run and short passing game, but will ask Smith to take a few big shots downfield. Smith has been good this season going downfield more often, so don’t be surprised if totals a bunch of yards, to compliment a few scores.

Running back Kareem Hunt & Charcandrick West; the key for the Chiefs is in the ground game or at least with their ball carrier, Kareem Hunt. Whether they have success running the ball or not, they will work to get the ball in the hands of Hunt. So far through three weeks Hunt has been electric, he’s in line for another 18-22 touches tonight. He’s my No.1 fantasy RB this week. West is nothing more than a handcuff. As long as Hunt is healthy, West won’t see enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, & Albert Wilson; Head Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up so much, it’s really hard to gauge where his receivers are. About the only relevant receiver in the Chiefs passing game is Hill. Niether Wilson or Conley can be trusted, only Hill with 22 targets through the first 3 weeks is startable. Tonight’s going to be a tough matchup, but count on Reid to move Hill around and get him the ball in space; despite the matchup, he’s my No. 14 fantasy WR.

Tight end Travis Kelce; Last week Kelce was nearly shut out. Fantasy owners don’t panic, last week was just an anomaly. Reid and his staff will make sure Kelce is involved tonight; i’d expect a bounce back game against the Redskins defense that struggles against tight ends. Kelce is my No.2 fantasy TE this week.

Tonight matchup with the undefeated Chiefs (3-0) and the (2-1) Redskins has the appearance of a great matchup and could be a barn-burner as likely as anything else. Either way, we are in for a good one with plenty of scoring and lots of fantasy implications. Are you ready for some Monday Night Football!

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 TE Rankings

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jimmy Graham

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jared Cook

7. Jordan Reed

8. Jason Witten

9. Charles Clay

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Eric Ebron

12. Cameron Brate

13. Coby Fleener

14. Ryan Griffin

15. Julius Thomas

16. Jack Doyle

17. Benjamin Watson

18. Evan Engram

19. Jesse James

20. Antonio Gates

21. Austin Hooper

22. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

23. Hunter Henry

24. Vernon Davis

25. David Njoku

As long as he’s healthy and playing Rob Gronkowski tops the list. He’s scored in two straight games and even though by normal standards he doesn’t have a great matchup, this is Gronk. He’s coming off a 10 target game in week 3 and should be in line for a similar workload and that’s why he tops the list.

Travis Kelce, A.K.A Zuess is my number two this week. He’s coming off a very disappointing week 3 (1 target, 1 catch for 1 yard), but don’t let that deter you from rolling with him in week 4. Kelce will definitely see more than a single target this week going up against a Redskins defense that have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

I moved Redskins tight end Jordan Reed into my 7 spot this week. Reed is typically a tough matchup for any defender; his biggest obstacle is usually his health. If Reed plays, expect him to be involved in the passing game. He’s been quiet thus far this season, so there will be no better time for Reed to make noise than Monday night.

I have Coby Fleener seated at the No.13 spot this week. He’s a borderline starter taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a better than 78 percent completion rate. It’s a great matchup, but always tough to gauge since Brees can really distribute the ball and has a lot of mouths to feed.

I have moved Chargers tight end Hunter Henry down to the 23rd spot. Rivers is a gunslinger and with receivers like Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, running back Melvin Gordon, and the other tight end Antonio Gates, just too many cooks in the kitchen. Henry will be tough to trust until we see more consistent involvement in the pass game; zero catches and zero targets.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 3 Injury Takes

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end has not been effective to start the season, but that could be more about the O-line play, than his usage and effectiveness. Graham is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. It’s always tough to sit Jimmy since he’s always a red-zone favorite, so he’ll be a risky bottom-line TE1 this week.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cardinals best receiver right now is nursing a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play Monday, but this may be a tough situation for owners to navigate with the Monday kickoff. Nelson has been brilliant to start the season, if he’s a go he’s a must play.

WR-Phillip Dorsett; the Patriots newest receiver is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. Dorsett has been limited with a knee injury. He’s still pretty new to the offense, so this may not have a big fantasy impact at this time, but he’s already shown some flash and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Chris Hogan; 7-11 is trending towards playing on Sunday and he should be in all lineups on Sunday. He’s definitely one of Brady’s more trusted options and should fare well coming off a week 2 stat line of 5/78/1.

TE-Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end is off the injury report and should be good to go against the Redskins. Cook is one of my preferred starts of the week and should be considered a startable low-end TE1 this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers running back is questionable, but expected to play Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy owners, although it was never expected that he wouldn’t play. Gordon is off to slow start on the ground, but the versatile back has maintained his value with his pass-catching skills. He should be a Top-15 RB this week once again.

WR-Jordy Nelson; the Packers receiver has been practicing in full this week and is expected to play. With his teammate Cobb likely out this week, Jordy is a strong WR1 play this week

WR-Randall Cobb; the Packers receiver is doubtful for Sunday and should be taken out of your lineups. With Cobb out, Nelson, Montgomery, Bennett, and Adams should see a bump in value.

TE-Evan Engram; the rookie  has been removed from the injury report this week and will play He’s got a good matchup this week and red-zone favorite this week. Facing the Eagles defense on Sunday, he’s a likely candidate to score this week.

DEF-Vontae Davis; Davis is going to miss week 3. With the Colts offense stuck in neutral and their best corner on the sideline, the Browns passing offense will have time and should be able to operate. Give Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Jr, and Isaiah Crowell all a bump in value this week.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cooper has been somewhat quiet through two weeks, but he’s healthy and ready to go. A favorable matchup this week, Cooper should be in your lineup on Sunday.

WR-Kendall Wright; the Bears wide receiver is off the team’s injury report and ready to go for Sunday. He’s been the most active receiver in a stagnant Bears passing game with 14 targets through two weeks, but this Sunday could find it tough to get open. He’s a risky play that should be avoided.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back is a little banged up with a hamstring injury. It sounds like Murray will be available for Sunday, but based on what we’ve seen thus far from him and the fact he’s dealing with an injury his workload could be lightened significantly this week.

RB-Derrick Henry; With Murray dealing with a hamstring issue and his slow start, dial up Henry this week. The former Crimson Tide is likely to see the bulk of the carries this week.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back is off the injury report, so he’s good to go for Sunday. It’s a tough start for Howard against the Steelers, so tread lightly with your expectations.

WR-John Brown; the speedy receiver has been ruled out for a second consecutive week with a quad injury. He can be dropped at this time, until his health turns for the better.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; the Patriots tight end has been trending all week toward playing, so it sounds like owners can expect to see the Gronk on Sunday. As long as he’s on the field, Gronk is a must play

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is looking like a Game-time call for Sunday night. The offense has been stagnate after two weeks and Reed is a risky play, owners are better off looking at alternative options like Jared Cook or Jack Doyle this week.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings signal caller has been shelved for week 3. His biggest impact is the value hit his receivers will take once again. Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph all drop in value, making all tough starts. Diggs and Thielen are salvageable in larger leagues, Rudolph may be the one fantasy casualty that sits this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega