FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Sleepers: Diamonds in the Rough

One of the secrets to success in fantasy football is not only drafting your studs, and avoiding injuries (usually an impossibility), but finding hidden value in your drafts and throughout the season. During the season, injuries are going to happen, so work the Waiver-wire every week.

But right now, it’s Draft season, so what we are looking for are those sleepers or Diamonds in the Rough.

In Kansas City, with the departure of Tyreek Hill in 2022 (to Miami), the Chiefs had to put together a makeshift receiving core with a lot of names and different faces. One name and one face that will be returning in 2023 is 2nd year wideout, Skyy Moore. Last season Moore barely saw any airtime in the Chiefs high octane offense, but 2023 presents a huge opportunity for the young receiver. The 2022 Second round pick will have a great shot at a completely different outlook in 2023. Listed as the team’s number two wideout, Moore is poised to take huge strides forward this season and with a 10th round ADP, he’s got tremendous value as a sleeper with high return.

An even deeper sleeper I will be eyeing beyond the 12th round with a current ADP of 13.04, is the Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs. The off-season changes in Green Bay may have many looking elsewhere for fantasy impact, but last season Doubs did display a little something to catch the eye of fantasy owners. This preseason he has been sharp and with a 3rd year quarterback who looks primed for a nice season himself, Doubs and (Jordan) Love are already showing some nice chemistry. Doubs is not going to blow off the doors, but he was second leading wide receiver on the team with 42 receptions (and 67 targets). With Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now in New York, there are over 140 targets available. Doubs has lots of flex appeal in 2023.

Last season in Denver there was so much disappointment with how the team performed, in particular the offense. The Russell Wilson led passing attack was mediocre at best and none of their wide receivers finished in the Top-20. While that was bad, one good thing that came out of last season was the arrival of tight end Greg Dulcich. Dulcich missed the first five games due to injury, but from week 6 on he played in 10 games, finishing as the No.17 fantasy tight end with 33 receptions, 411 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns. His scoring line is hardly anything to get excited about, but there’s great potential. Dulcich is a highly skilled and athletic pass catcher and with the arrival of head coach Sean Payton, his skill figure to get utilized. His average ADP at 14.02, puts him at an early TE2 and late enough to draft a late round stash. In Payton’s offense Dulcich should have a chance at being a solid TE1. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 28th 2017

Thursday Morning Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

Well I took a real beating with my takes on the two quarterbacks last week. Most likely neither was on your roster, but if they were and you sat them, MAN! That’s a lot of points to leave on the floor. Hopefully this week is an easier read. With Aaron Rodgers always a must and Mike on the other side of the field, who will you be starting?

“Rodgers or Glennon? The tough choices of fantasy football lineup conundrums” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Last week Randall Cobb was sidelined and Jordy Nelson was coming off an injury that had him sidelined. Talk about your lineup dilemmas, who to start. Packers receiver Geronimo Allison rose with the cream last week and with Cobb and Nelson back on the field, to the bench I do not think he goes. He’s a risk yes, but I am hanging onto Allison and if I need flex help this week he may be inserted.

“Don’t quit on Allison so soon. We’ve seen this kid before and last week he showed something. He’s go flex appeal!” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Ty Montgomery has yet to disappoint and as fantasy’s No.4 running back (in PPR) I don’t suspect he’ll start this week, but owners should pull in the reins a bit. He’s healthy (removed from injury report), but he’s not invincible. Montgomery was slowed in the trenches last week and limited to 50 total yards. He’ll keep owners smiling with his receiving contributions and I would expect to see the Packers try to get him the ball more in space this week.

“Montgomery is catching everything in site (18 catches in 17), but A-rod needs to get him ball in space. He will” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Through the first 3 weeks this season Martellus Bennett has being seeing targets regularly, averaging 7 per week, but the problem is he’s not produced. Another problem it seems, they are asking him to run many routes; a lot of blocking and late releases. There’s no question Bennett has athletic skill and talent to make plays, he’s just not being asked to do that. Right now I can’t trust him.

“3 catches for 12 yds last week, won’t get it done. Can’t trust Martellus Bennett right now” - by @FantsySprtsHome

The Bears are coming off a big win last week and it’s quite possible they’ll carry some of that emotion into Thursday’s matchup. One player I expect to see benefit is running back Jordan Howard. He ran well on Sunday and should be fine Thursday against the Packers. He may not top 100 yards, but he should be fine with a score or two and upwards towards 20-plus touches.

“It’s going to be a busy night for J. Howard running against Pack 21st ranked run D. Start him all night.” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Like Howard, Cohen is going to see his share of the workload Thursday night. Glennon is not a great option here, but he’ll manage to get the ball to his scat back. Cohen is electric and wicked in open space. It should be just another day at the office for the rookie runner.

“If Jordan is Thunder, then Cohen is lightning and when he strikes look out! He’s got a lot of flex appeal in wk4” - by @FantsySprtsHome

There are not too many receiving options to like on a team that primarily runs the ball like the Bears; 38 times last week. The only option worth mentioning is wide receiver Kendall Wright and even he is not worth mentioning. I don’t recommend starting him, but you know what they say Glennon has to throw to someone. Maybe so, but last week he found a way to only throw 4 passes to his receivers and not one went Wright’s way.

“Even the Bears avoid their WRs, just four balls to WRs, but they did run 38 times. Avoid Bears passing game” - by @FantsySprtsHome

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 3 Injury Takes

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end has not been effective to start the season, but that could be more about the O-line play, than his usage and effectiveness. Graham is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. It’s always tough to sit Jimmy since he’s always a red-zone favorite, so he’ll be a risky bottom-line TE1 this week.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cardinals best receiver right now is nursing a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play Monday, but this may be a tough situation for owners to navigate with the Monday kickoff. Nelson has been brilliant to start the season, if he’s a go he’s a must play.

WR-Phillip Dorsett; the Patriots newest receiver is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. Dorsett has been limited with a knee injury. He’s still pretty new to the offense, so this may not have a big fantasy impact at this time, but he’s already shown some flash and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Chris Hogan; 7-11 is trending towards playing on Sunday and he should be in all lineups on Sunday. He’s definitely one of Brady’s more trusted options and should fare well coming off a week 2 stat line of 5/78/1.

TE-Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end is off the injury report and should be good to go against the Redskins. Cook is one of my preferred starts of the week and should be considered a startable low-end TE1 this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers running back is questionable, but expected to play Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy owners, although it was never expected that he wouldn’t play. Gordon is off to slow start on the ground, but the versatile back has maintained his value with his pass-catching skills. He should be a Top-15 RB this week once again.

WR-Jordy Nelson; the Packers receiver has been practicing in full this week and is expected to play. With his teammate Cobb likely out this week, Jordy is a strong WR1 play this week

WR-Randall Cobb; the Packers receiver is doubtful for Sunday and should be taken out of your lineups. With Cobb out, Nelson, Montgomery, Bennett, and Adams should see a bump in value.

TE-Evan Engram; the rookie  has been removed from the injury report this week and will play He’s got a good matchup this week and red-zone favorite this week. Facing the Eagles defense on Sunday, he’s a likely candidate to score this week.

DEF-Vontae Davis; Davis is going to miss week 3. With the Colts offense stuck in neutral and their best corner on the sideline, the Browns passing offense will have time and should be able to operate. Give Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Jr, and Isaiah Crowell all a bump in value this week.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cooper has been somewhat quiet through two weeks, but he’s healthy and ready to go. A favorable matchup this week, Cooper should be in your lineup on Sunday.

WR-Kendall Wright; the Bears wide receiver is off the team’s injury report and ready to go for Sunday. He’s been the most active receiver in a stagnant Bears passing game with 14 targets through two weeks, but this Sunday could find it tough to get open. He’s a risky play that should be avoided.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back is a little banged up with a hamstring injury. It sounds like Murray will be available for Sunday, but based on what we’ve seen thus far from him and the fact he’s dealing with an injury his workload could be lightened significantly this week.

RB-Derrick Henry; With Murray dealing with a hamstring issue and his slow start, dial up Henry this week. The former Crimson Tide is likely to see the bulk of the carries this week.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back is off the injury report, so he’s good to go for Sunday. It’s a tough start for Howard against the Steelers, so tread lightly with your expectations.

WR-John Brown; the speedy receiver has been ruled out for a second consecutive week with a quad injury. He can be dropped at this time, until his health turns for the better.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; the Patriots tight end has been trending all week toward playing, so it sounds like owners can expect to see the Gronk on Sunday. As long as he’s on the field, Gronk is a must play

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is looking like a Game-time call for Sunday night. The offense has been stagnate after two weeks and Reed is a risky play, owners are better off looking at alternative options like Jared Cook or Jack Doyle this week.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings signal caller has been shelved for week 3. His biggest impact is the value hit his receivers will take once again. Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph all drop in value, making all tough starts. Diggs and Thielen are salvageable in larger leagues, Rudolph may be the one fantasy casualty that sits this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 22nd, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday DFS

Another Sunday, another chance to play some fantasy football. It’s been a long week, but the waiting is over and today is Championship Sunday. After last weekend’s classics, I can’t wait to tune in to watch both games today. And like last week, I will be playing some DFS.

And like last week, my anchor play today is going to be Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($9,600 DSF salary). He is carrying a hefty salary, but in these epic matchups today I have a feeling and believe Rodgers is going to continue his hot playoff run. Last week A-rod threw for a ton, but only found the end-zone twice; today will be different. In a shoot-out with the NFC’s number two seed, Atlanta Falcons, Rodgers is going to have to elevate his play once again to carry the Pack. With 40-plus passes today, Rodgers throws for 325+ yards and three touchdowns.

My second anchor is going to be Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (9,500 DSF salary) There’s no question Bell is going to be heavily involved in the running game and even if the Patriots have some success slowing down the Steelers ball carrier, he’s one of the teams best pass receivers. I expect another heavy workload, but unlike last week Bell will find the end-zone.

And with this being Championship weekend and so much at stake, I am going to load up with Packers; wide receiver Randall Cobb ($6,500 DFS salary) and tight end Jared Cook ($6,400 DFS salary). 

Last week Cobb was relatively quiet not finding the end-zone, but he did grab 7 balls on 8 targets. If he sees as much work today as he did a week ago, you can expect much better numbers and likely a score.

To the contrary, Cook was much more productive catching 6 passes (on 11 targets) for 103 yards and a touchdown. These are big numbers to replicate, but it’s highly likely he’ll have every opportunity today against the Falcons defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

With so much salary invested in the Packers offense, one play that I am leaning with and believe may come up big today is the Steelers wide receiver Eli Rogers ($4,900 DFS salary). Last week he did not breakout, but he did see 7 targets; a good sign he’ll be involved today. As well as the Patriots have been on defense this season, they did allow the 10th most 20+ yards completions to opposing teams.

That’s My Take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
December 23rd, 2012

  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Randall Cobb
The Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb has been the clear go-to option for several weeks now and this Sunday little will change. He’s a solid WR2 option and should be in all line-ups against the Titans 18th ranked pass defense.

Demaryrius Thomas
Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas was held in check last week, but don’t count on him being quiet two weeks in a row. Last Sunday it was Decker, this Sunday you can expect Thomas to be more involved; he’s worth starting as a low-end WR2.

Lance Moore
The Saints wide receiver Lance Moore should be a part of the Saints passing parade today against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are ranked 19th against the pass and could mean a lot of Brees and his receivers. Moore is more  of a low end WR3 or flex and worth starting in deeper leagues.

Reggie Bush
The Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has a nice matchup today against the Bills 30th ranked run defense. Bush has played more as a utility player rather than a feature back much of this season, but today he could see a few more touches. Unless you have better options, he’s a low-end RB3 or flex in most formats

Kenny Britt
The Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt has not been much of a fantasy option this season and with so much inconsistency under center he’s a risky play this week that’s hardly worth it. The Titans wide receivers in general are tough to predict, if better options exist all should be avoided.

Josh Freeman
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a very disappointing performance for fantasy owners, so it’s hard to imagine he’d lay another egg in week 16. Fantasy owners can expect a better game this week from Freeman, but temper your expectations the Rams defense is pretty good and ranked 9th against the pass.

Anquan Boldin
The Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin was held without a catch last week, he’s not going to blow up this week but could be a serviceable flex option in the deepest leagues. The Ravens passing game has been inconsistent, but before last week Boldin has been one of its’ more consistent options.

Danario Alexander
The Chargers number one receiver Danario Alexander was held to zero catches last week and draws another tough matchup this week. He’s not likely to post another donut, but it could be another long day with low out-put; avoid is possible.

Just a few notes and thoughts for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
December 2nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bad Weather is Good News for Spiller
The Bills running back CJ Spiller (830 yards rushing in 2012) could be looking at a heavy load today with the weather forecast predicting rain and wind. Spiller has been the most consistent back in the Bills backfield and will take the lead reins today. Facing the Jaguars 29th ranked run defense, Spiller is looking at possibly his best game of the season; a must-start today.

Rodgers Set for a Big Game with a Full Arsenal
The Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28 touchdowns in 2012) will enjoy the return of wide receiver Greg Jennings today. Although Jennings may be brought along slowly, the Vikings defense will still need to account for him along with Nelson and Cobb. Rodgers will be looking to bounce back after a sub-par game against the Giants last week; in his last two matchups against the Vikings Rodgers has torched them for 585 yards and 7 touchdowns. Today should be just another Sunday slinging the rock for Rodgers.

Thomas Looking for a Breakout Day
The Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas is having a fine 2012 campaign, but today could be particularly huge for the playmaker. Thomas and Manning have connected six times for scores this season, a number that could grow exponentially when the two square off against the Bucs today. The Buccaneers secondary is ranked last in the league against the pass and have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers (including 11 touchdowns); analysis, big game for Thomas.

Clark Looking to take Advantage of Broncos D
The Buccaneers tight end Dallas Clark has become one of quarterback Josh Freeman’s trusted go-to targets and after a slow start this season, Clark’s numbers are starting to rise. Those number should continue to rise even more today facing the Broncos secondary that has struggled against tight ends in recent weeks. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points to tight ends making Clark (31 receptions and 3 touchdowns in 2012) a top 10 fantasy play for week 13.

These are just a few of my takes for week 13.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 28th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Broyles Ready to Be Megatron’s Sidekick
The Lions rookie wide receiver Ryan Broyles is not built quite like Optimus Prime, but his play last Thursday (6 catches, 126 yards) in his first start has catapulted him to Decepticon status. Broyles is now implanted as the starter opposite of Calvin Johnson. On an offense that puts the ball up nearly 45 times per game, Broyles is sure to see his share of targets (12 targets in week 12). As long as he continues to start, Broyles is in line to see enough targets to remain a low-end WR3 or strong flex option.

Jennings to Play Sunday Against Vikings
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings has finally returned to practice in full this week and will play Sunday. Jennings has slowly been working his way back and despite the recent success of his peers (Nelson & Cobb) in his absence, he should have little trouble getting back in sync with his quarterback. Don’t look for Jennings to fly out of the gate like a gang-buster in his first game back, but don’t be surprised to see him get back into the act quickly. Coming off a seven game lay-off there likely to be some rust so his involvement and productivity will be gradual; Jennings is likely a safe flex option at best this week.

Dez on the Rise with Austin Slowed
The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has emerged as a lethal weapon in the Cowboys passing attack this season. Through 11 games Bryant has 65 receptions for 880 yards and six touchdowns. Bryant is also riding a three-game touchdown streak. With Miles Austin limited this week and trying to return from the hip flexor he suffered last Sunday, expect Bryant to continue his hot hand; he’s a must start against the Eagles 15th ranked pass defense that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season.

Alexander Primed to Lead the Charge
The Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander is averaging 5 catches and better than 90 yards per game since becoming a starter in San Diego. Alexander is also averaging almost nine targets (8.6) per game in his last three and is quarterback Philip Rivers’ number one receiver. Look for Alexander’s numbers to continue to rise in the coming weeks making him a solid WR3 today and chart climber going forward into the fantasy playoffs. 

These are just a few of my takes on some of the Good-Hands people for week 13.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition
November 15th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Nelson Set to Return on Sunday
The Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson has been practicing this week and sounds like he’s ready to resume his roles as the team’s leading receiver. With Nelson back on the field, opposing defenses will have a tough time choosing their poison. Nelson remains a solid WR1 fantasy receiver and his return should also bump up the value of wide out Randall Cobb; consider Cobb a safe flex in week 11.

Jackson is Lining up for a Big Sunday
The Rams running back Steven Jackson is coming off his best performance of the season last Sunday against a stout Niners defense. Jackson carried the ball a season high 29 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. With the Jets 29th ranked run defense up next Jackson is looking like a great fantasy play for Sunday. The Jets allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered 9 touchdowns; Jackson is a must start.

Cutler Could Start Monday Night
Although quarterback Jay Cutler (concussion) has not participated in practice this week, there appears to be a chance he could start Monday night. Cutler was knocked out of last Sunday night’s contest against the Texans with a concussion. His chances of playing don’t look good, but even if he is able to suit up and make a go of it, this is a not a good week to roll with Cutler facing the Niners defense. The Niners allow the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Starks set to Start Sunday for Packers
Running back James Starks was the team’s leading ball carrier back in week 9 toting the rock 17 times for 61 yards. Quietly he also started the game and will get the start again this Sunday. Starks is a bruiser and can pound the ball inside. He’s not likely to tear off any long scampers, but should see plenty of early down carries and could get a couple of red zone opportunities.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY NIGHT FANTASY NOTES

Tuesday Edition
November 6th, 2012  

SUNDAY NIGHT NOTES

Week 9 Fantasy notes 

“On the Injury Front”

Running back Darren McFadden has been a ball of fits and frustration thus far this season for fantasy owners, but the latest setback may not be as bad as first thought. McFadden suffered what appeared to be a high-ankle sprain on Sunday, but was initially expected to miss an extended period of time. The good news, according to head coach Dennis Allen McFadden has not been ruled out for this Sunday (week 10) against the Ravens.

The Colts wide receiver Donnie Avery exited early on Sunday against the Dolphins. Avery was well on his way to a big day with five grabs for 108 yards, before leaving with a hip injury. Avery did not practice on Monday, but did return today and looks on track to play Thursday night. Avery is the solid number two receiver behind Reggie Wayne, if he’s good to go he should be in lineups as a week 10 flex.

The Packers lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson early on Sunday against the Cardinals. Nelson was a game-time decision, so he was already banged up and didn’t last long. With the bye this week, he is expected to get healthy and be ready for week 11. Fantasy owners should not be concerned with his return having any kind of negative impact on the emerging Randall Cobb; both will be solid weekly plays going forward.

Wide receiver Antonio Brown went down on Sunday against the Giants with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him sidelined in week 10. Brown leads the team with 42 receptions this season and has become one of quarterback Ben Roethlisbergers’ main go-to receivers. With Brown out, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders will be one of the hot grabs off the waiver wire this week. Mike Wallace is sure to draw a lot of attention leaving Sanders with lots of opportunities to take advantage of favorable matchups.

The Giants running back Andre Brown came out of Sunday’s game against the Steelers feeling a lot more black and blue after suffering a shoulder injury. Brown was an early exit from Sunday’s contest (left game during 4th quarter), but says his shoulder is fine. If Brown (6 rushing touchdowns this season) is available for week 10 against the Bengals, the touchdown vulture remains nothing more than a flex option in deeper leagues.

Against the Seahawks, Vikings’ wide receiver Percy Harvin suffered a serious ankle injury. Harvin sprained his ankle in three places and has been sporting crutches according to local reports. Considering the degree of severity and the upcoming bye for the Vikings in week 11, it is highly unlikely the team would push for him to play in week 10 against the Lions. Fantasy owners will need to look elsewhere.


These were some of the notable injuries from week 9 and their fantasy impact.

By David Ortega