FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023

Sunday Evening Edition

2023 Breakout Players

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator)

George Pickens, WR-Steelers / ADP 6.10 - The Steelers wide receiver has displayed his incredible talent and receiving prowess throughout training camp and the preseason. He has great athletic ability and great hands. He showed plenty of flash as well in 2022, setting up what could be a breakout campaign in 2023. 

Jahan Dotson, WR-Commanders / ADP 7.01 – Dotson has been one of those players this preseason that has been the talk of Fantasy Radio. He showed some flash in 2022, scoring a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games while totaling 344 yards receiving with 21 receptions. Dotson is could be on the verge of a big 2023 season.

Garrett Wilson, WR-Jets / ADP 2.04 – When future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers calls you special, you know that’s something. Last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson could be the piece that was missing from Rodgers derailed 2022 fantasy season. The talk is Wilson could be a top-5 fantasy wide receiver, currently being drafted as WR10.

Aaron Rodgers, QB-Jets / ADP 9.08 – Last season Rodgers overall numbers dipped quote a bit, but he didn’t have his Alpha receiver Davante Adams who had moved onto the Raiders. Traded to New York in the offseason, Rodgers may have found his new Alpha (receiving) weapon in 2nd year receiver Garrett Wilson. The benefit of having a receiver of Wilson’s caliber could return Rodgers to fantasy relevance as a top-6 fantasy quarterback.

Kenny Pickett, QB-Steelers / ADP 13.09 – The Steelers 2nd year quarterback has looked sharp in the preseason and although we don’t want to read too much it’s a good sign. Another big sign is the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, with receivers Diontae Johnson and Pickens, add a trusty tight end like Pat Freiermuth and Pickett is a favorite of mine to outperform his current QB20 draft position.

Jordan Love, QB-Packers / ADP 14.04 – Just like Pickett, I really like the Packers quarterback to outperform his current QB24 draft position. He’s been sharp in camp this season completing over 60% of his throws and tossing three touchdowns. And although the sample size is small, this is Love’s 4th season in Green Bay and I believe he’s primed and ready to breakout.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Fantasy Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

RB-Tony Pollard, Current ADP 2.03 - the Cowboys running back enjoyed his best season as a professional in 2022 totaling 1,378 yards of offense (1,007 yards, 371 yards receiving), adding 9 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving. Pollard finished the 2022 season as the No.9 fantasy running back. Right now he’s going as an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts.

WR-Garrett Wilson, Current ADP 2.04 - the Jets receiver finished his 2022 campaign earning the AP Rookie of the Year award. In his first season Wilson grabbed 83 balls for 1,103 yards receiving with 4 touchdowns. He finished 2022 as the No.28 fantasy receiver, but with a Hall of Fame quarterback under center in New York, Wilson appears to be on a trajectory to make a huge jump. He’s also an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts right now.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Evening Edition
September 6th, 2019

Friday Night Fantasy Fixx

Thursday Night Recap

First let’s talk about the disaster that was the two offenses in last night’s NFL opener between the Packers and Bears. While we can attribute some of the Packers woes to a great looking Bears defense (ranked 3rd in total defense in 2018), we can also consider a little pre-season rust. Normally I might rewatch the game using my annual NFL Game Pass, but come on, lets face it, this game was hardly worth the first watch.

The Bears D did what they do, sacked quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times, held the Packers offense to 16% 3rd down conversion rate, and limited them to just 213 yards of total offense. Fantasy owners of running back Aaron Jones were no doubt grumbling last night, with the lack of production, but this should have been expected with the Bears number one run defense from a year ago.  

What was not expected was the split snaps with running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Williams edge out Jones in the first half, but Jones finished with 38 to 26. This is concerning, but Jones did in fact out touch williams two-to-one, with 14 touches to 7, and outgained Williams 39 yards to 15 yards. Probably no need to panic here with the results, the Packers aren’t likely to see a defense this stout, that is of course until the face the Bears again. Keep calm.

One of the surprises of the night had to be the Packers Defense (pick them up off waivers). They registered five sacks of their own, came up with one turnover (although the secondary did let two slip through their hands) on the night, and shut down Mitchy (quarterback Mitchell Trubisky) and company, holding the Bears offense to 3 points. This was not expected, but neither was the poor play of the aforementioned quarterback; staring down receivers, ill-advised passes, poor decision making in critical moments. Trubisky still has some growing to do, and fortunately for the Bears, their defense may afford him a little time. He will need to clean up some of his flaws, but the poor coaching decisions and play calls he can’t control; what was up with that. 

For now, the only Fantasy studs on this Bears offense are wide receiver Allen Robinson who finished with 7 catches for 102 yards on 13 targets (28.8% share; this is massive) and flex receiver Tarik Cohen, zero carries, with 8 catches for 49 yards on 10 targets (22.2% share; this is huge, but likely not sustainable). These two should be in weekly PPR lineups.

Bad News: The Antonio Brown Saga

This is an incredible day-time soap opera in Raider Nation; I hear it’s up for a Daytime Emmy. Susan Lucci could never hope for as good a storyline as the one AB is trail-blazing. Since all of his antics have been adequately covered and monitored by all the media outlets and sports networks, there’s no need for me to dive down that rabbit hole. The only thing I can offer, is this was one of the reasons I steered cleared of AB during my season-long redrafts. He’s unquestionably one of the best receivers in the game today, but watching this free-fall he’s taken of late had me concerned about his availability. If Brown can overcome himself and manage not to trip over his own actions, he should payoff huge for owners that took a chance on him. I, for one will continue to steer clear for now, until the situation stabilizes and dust settles.

And then there was one. Another fantasy concern heading into week one is Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, the lone running back holdout this season with Ezekiel Elliot signing an extension with the Cowboys earlier in the week. This situation has no timeline, so there’s no telling if or when Gordon might rejoin the team, if he even does. He was another draftee I avoided, due to concerns with his contract situation. Fantasy owners, don’t hold your breath on this one.

Injury notes

It’s late Friday night, so I will check out the injury reports from today and update my perspective on the notables tomorrow.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
August 24th, 2019

In These Hands We Trust

Let’s begin with this, my numbers are not scientific, nor are they prophetic, they are merely my opinion based on my eye test and last season’s production. With that much said and not trying to say too much, these are my WR rankings for the start of 2019 season.

At the top of the board is Mr. Number one himself, DeAndre Hopkins (MR#1WR). In full PPR Hopkins finished as the number wide receiver last season, after finishing second by a half point in 2017. Hopkins has hands of glue and he is Mister Consistent. He’ll see his normal 170-plus targets and should be back at the top once again.

Right behind Hopkins, filling the number two slot is the Packers Davante Adams (MR#2WR). I actually like Adams a ton; he could easily unseat Hopkins for top billing. Adams will have the luxury of catching passes from a healthy Aaron Rodgers and after coming off a season with career highs across the board (catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets), he’s a shoe-in to post large numbers in 2019.

Yes, the top two receivers have great outlooks for 2019 and both are appropriately ranked, but my number four fantasy receiver, the Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr (MR#4WR) deserves a huge mention here. It just feels like the perfect storm this season for OBJ, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason. With the gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield under center, it feels like OBJ is going to be on Sportscenter a lot this season.

The First 12 pairs of hands
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Davante Adams
3.Julio Jones
4.O. Beckham Jr
5.Michael Thomas
6.Tyreek Hill
7.Smith-Schuster
8.Mike Evans
9.Keenan Allen
10.Antonio Brown
11.Adam Thielen
12.T.Y. Hilton

Leading the second set of 12 is the Buccaneers receiver (MR#13WR) Chris Godwin; in Godwin I trust. He’s been one of the talks of the offseason, I’ve been listening to. Godwin had a very nice 2nd season starting 5 games and finishing with 59 receptions, 842 yards receiving, and 7 touchdowns. Now in his third year with the Bucs, this is expected to be his breakout. In four of his last five games in 2018, Godwin had no fewer than six targets per contest with quarterback Jameis Winston under center; the Bucs starting Quarterback for 2019. Godwin is a rising star.

The two Rams receivers, Brandin Cooks (MR#16WR) and Robert Woods (MR#17WR) are basically bookends; you can flip-flop these two. The Rams high-octane offense presents plenty of opportunity for both, even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Last season Woods finished as the 11th scoring fantasy receiver, with Cooks checking in at 13 (full PPR). I believe the return of Kupp will knock these two down slightly, but both are worth drafting as your WR2.

Ankle surgery has me avoiding Bengals receiver A.J. Green (MR#24WR) in my drafts, but he is going to return at some point this season; expected to only miss a few games. If you can get him late, he has the potential of being a solid late grab and could be a difference maker. But he is coming off surgery, which is always risky.

The Second set of hands
13.Chris Godwin
14.Stefon Diggs
15.Julian Edelman
16.Brandin Cooks
17.Robert Woods
18.Jarvis Landry
19.Amari Cooper
20.Cooper Kupp
21.Kenny Golladay
22.Tyler Lockett
23.Calvin Ridley
24.A.J. Green

Some notables that just missed the cut, Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd (MR#25WR), Chargers receiver Mike Williams (MR#26WR) and Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery (MR#27WR). I really like Williams this season, easily see him cracking the top 24. The same for Boyd, with Green expected to miss time he’ll be the go-to receiver for quarterback Andy Dalton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Fantasy Fallout

More Luck Needed.

This may not be what fantasy owners and Colts fans want to hear, but we are now heading into the 7th week of the season and quarterback Andrew Luck is still weeks away for seeing the field. At what point do you get into the season where you have to think about the long term and shut Luck down? At 2-4 through 6 weeks and a tough week 7 showdown with the Jaguars, the Colts season with Luck is getting farther and farther away. Fantasy owners will have to start facing the awful truth; they’re going to need lots more luck if Luck doesn’t return this season.

Chiefs Defense: Not What You Think?

After 6 weeks of action, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL as the Chiefs fell Sunday to the Steelers. And how did this happen? Maybe it’s because the Chiefs defense is not what you think. When they were 5-0 and getting ready to hit cruise control with the Steelers coming to town, what we saw on Sunday and found out, this team is not so formidable. In reality, their weakest link could be their defense, ranked 29th in total yards allowed. Did the Steelers 13th ranked offense in total yards expose them or am I just over-reacting?

Broncos Offense: A Fantasy Mess.

Being the Broncos fan that I am, after watching this offense seemingly struggle week after week a trend starts to emerge; their offense is a fantasy mess with Siemian under center. Is it the play-calling or the execution, hard to tell, maybe it’s both. One thing for sure is, the offense has produced just 10, 16, and 16, since their week 2 explosion for 42 points. Averaging just 14 points the past three weeks is not going to get it done for Broncos fans and fantasy owners. Something needs to be fixed (in the pass game or the run game) or this funk could continue and fantasy owners will be forced to start looking at sitting or trading players like Demaryius Thomas and CJ Anderson.

Packers Offense Facing A Big Change.

Everyone knows about the injury and most who follow football understand the importance of the starting quarterback to his offense. But when you are talking about the Packers starter Aaron Rodgers and his offense, there may not be anyone more important. Rodgers is definitely the engine that makes the Packers offense run. The first reaction is with Aaron OUT, all Packers players fantasy value across the board takes a huge hit. This may make sense, also the run game could become prominent (enter Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery), but the other wild-card to consider is backup quarterback Brett Hundley is no stranger to the offense and his supporting cast. On Sunday he was thrown to the wolves and one week is not going to be enough time to make a 180 degree difference, but as he gets in sync with the offense and the game slows down for him (and it will), we’ll have to see what he can do. So, no need to panic yet.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 6 QB Rankings

I’m showing a lot of confidence in Kirk Cousins this week. I saw solid back-to-back games in weeks 3 & 4; if not for a dropped pass in the end zone, Cousins numbers would have looked that much better and the Redskins would be coming off a two game winning streak. Cousins is only the No.16 fantasy QB through five weeks, but I think he’s on the move and I like him as my No.6 QB this week.

Like Cousins, I think Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (No.11 fantasy QB) is set to deliver another strong performance. In his last two starts, Rivers is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game; he has passed for over 600 yards and tossed 5 touchdowns. Rivers is rolling and should continue against a Raiders defense that has yet to register an interception. I have Rivers coming in as my No.8 QB this week.

QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Deshaun Watson

6. Kirk Cousins

7. Carson Palmer

8. Philip Rivers

9. Alex Smith

10. Jameis Winston

11. Matthew Stafford

12. Derek Carr

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Trevor Siemian

15. Marcus Mariota

16. Jacoby Brissett

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Josh McCown

19. Jared Goff

20. Case Keenum

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 5 QB Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

The bye weeks have started and it’s time to look deeper each week for starting help and depth at all of your positions. With names like Brees and Ryan off this week, a lot of owners will be looking to a backup solution or the waiver wire for Week 5.

Deshaun Watson is my popular pick for week 5. He doesn’t have a great matchup, but what I like is Watson and his ability to make plays outside the pocket with his feet. He’s the leading rusher for quarterbacks after 4 weeks and the Chiefs have trouble keeping the QB contained. Watson is my No.4 fantasy QB this week.

Looking down the tree a little further, reports are suggesting Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford will play. Last season Bradford led the league with a record setting 71.6 completion percentage and this season he opened his campaign completing 84 percent of his passes back in week 1. If he’s healthy and returns Monday night, Bradford is my No.12 fantasy QB this week and worthy of starting consideration against a Bears 17th ranked secondary.

The Rams quarterback Jared Goff comes in at No.13 and should be considered a possible start this week for owners looking to fill a bye week need. Goff has played very well this season and is the No.11 fantasy QB through the first 4 weeks. And while the Seahawks (the Rams Week 5 opponent) present a formidable challenge this week, the Rams are a well balanced offense this season (4th ranked passing, 16th ranked rushing) and the highest scoring team at 35.5 points per game. Goff and company will also present many challenges for the Seahawks 15th ranked defense overall.

Here are my Week 5 QB rankings;

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Dak Prescott

3. Carson Wentz

4. Deshaun Watson

5. Matthew Stafford

6. Carson Palmer

7. Russell Wilson

8. Eli Manning

9. Ben Roethlisberger

10. Alex Smith

11. Cam Newton

12. Sam Bradford

13. Jared Goff

14. Marcus Mariota

15. Philip Rivers

16. Jay Cutler

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Tyrod Taylor

19. Andy Dalton

20. Josh McCown

These are my Top-20 rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 28th 2017

Thursday Morning Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

Well I took a real beating with my takes on the two quarterbacks last week. Most likely neither was on your roster, but if they were and you sat them, MAN! That’s a lot of points to leave on the floor. Hopefully this week is an easier read. With Aaron Rodgers always a must and Mike on the other side of the field, who will you be starting?

“Rodgers or Glennon? The tough choices of fantasy football lineup conundrums” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Last week Randall Cobb was sidelined and Jordy Nelson was coming off an injury that had him sidelined. Talk about your lineup dilemmas, who to start. Packers receiver Geronimo Allison rose with the cream last week and with Cobb and Nelson back on the field, to the bench I do not think he goes. He’s a risk yes, but I am hanging onto Allison and if I need flex help this week he may be inserted.

“Don’t quit on Allison so soon. We’ve seen this kid before and last week he showed something. He’s go flex appeal!” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Ty Montgomery has yet to disappoint and as fantasy’s No.4 running back (in PPR) I don’t suspect he’ll start this week, but owners should pull in the reins a bit. He’s healthy (removed from injury report), but he’s not invincible. Montgomery was slowed in the trenches last week and limited to 50 total yards. He’ll keep owners smiling with his receiving contributions and I would expect to see the Packers try to get him the ball more in space this week.

“Montgomery is catching everything in site (18 catches in 17), but A-rod needs to get him ball in space. He will” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Through the first 3 weeks this season Martellus Bennett has being seeing targets regularly, averaging 7 per week, but the problem is he’s not produced. Another problem it seems, they are asking him to run many routes; a lot of blocking and late releases. There’s no question Bennett has athletic skill and talent to make plays, he’s just not being asked to do that. Right now I can’t trust him.

“3 catches for 12 yds last week, won’t get it done. Can’t trust Martellus Bennett right now” - by @FantsySprtsHome

The Bears are coming off a big win last week and it’s quite possible they’ll carry some of that emotion into Thursday’s matchup. One player I expect to see benefit is running back Jordan Howard. He ran well on Sunday and should be fine Thursday against the Packers. He may not top 100 yards, but he should be fine with a score or two and upwards towards 20-plus touches.

“It’s going to be a busy night for J. Howard running against Pack 21st ranked run D. Start him all night.” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Like Howard, Cohen is going to see his share of the workload Thursday night. Glennon is not a great option here, but he’ll manage to get the ball to his scat back. Cohen is electric and wicked in open space. It should be just another day at the office for the rookie runner.

“If Jordan is Thunder, then Cohen is lightning and when he strikes look out! He’s got a lot of flex appeal in wk4” - by @FantsySprtsHome

There are not too many receiving options to like on a team that primarily runs the ball like the Bears; 38 times last week. The only option worth mentioning is wide receiver Kendall Wright and even he is not worth mentioning. I don’t recommend starting him, but you know what they say Glennon has to throw to someone. Maybe so, but last week he found a way to only throw 4 passes to his receivers and not one went Wright’s way.

“Even the Bears avoid their WRs, just four balls to WRs, but they did run 38 times. Avoid Bears passing game” - by @FantsySprtsHome

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega