FSH: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (TARGET PRACTICE)

December 11th, 2010 Saturday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

While the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe had been the latest talk of fantasy at the wide out spot a not so old fantasy favorite has been quietly putting up equally impressive numbers. In Green Bay wide receiver Greg Jennings has been as hot as any receiver over the past four weeks.

With a lot of this weekend’s game subject to unfavorable weather, Jennings and his quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be playing in the comfort of an enclosed dome stadium when they face the Detroit Lions. This will be a rematch of a week four matchup, one in which Jennings was held to just two catches for 25 yards. Jennings was held to a season low 5 targets, but did manage to find the end zone once.

The prospects of that happening again are a long shot when you consider that Jennings has been targeted 31 times over his past four games. Since week nine Jennings has 473 receiving yards (ranks 2nd), six touchdowns (ranks 2nd), and 25 catches (tied for 14th). Fantasy owners should feel confident and trust in these hands on Sunday.

Another receiver that should be drawing a lot of attention this weekend from fantasy owners is the Saints Marques Colston. With quarterback Drew Brees able to make any throw and having the acute awareness to get the ball to any open receiver, it has sometimes been frustrating for fantasy owners to know which Saint receiver has the hot hand.

Over the past three weeks that Saint is Colston. He has been targeted just 24 times, but has done a lot of damage. Colston has 17 receptions for 283 yards receiving and three scores in his last three games. Last week he was held to just four targets (his season low), but with 102 targets this season there is no threat of Brees not looking his way on Sunday. Colston should have a nice matchup this Sunday against the Rams 19th ranked secondary.

Radar Watch

In My sites

My Fantasy Notes:

Surprisingly this Sunday night, even with his great speed DeSean Jackson (762 yards receiving, 5 touchdowns) may not be the Eagle’s receiver that the Dallas Cowboys will have to most worry about. When both teams take the field on Sunday, Jeremy Maclin could be the biggest cause for concern for the Cowboy’s 28th ranked secondary.

Over the past four weeks Maclin has been the most targeted Eagle receiver with 34 targets. During that span Maclin has caught 22 passes for 314 yards (14.2 yards per catch) and two scores. There’s no question that Michael Vick like to throw to Maclin, especially close to the end-zone. Six of Maclin’s eight touchdowns this season have come from throws by Vick.

The Cowboys have allowed 43 pass plays of 20 yards or more and 25 passing touchdowns this season. They are also allowing nearly 68 percent of passes thrown by the opposition to be completed. Maclin looks like a strong play this weekend against the Cowboys and could be in for a few big plays. He’s not only a must watch, but should be started in most fantasy leagues.

Target leaders in week 13
(unofficial numbers)

1. Reggie Wayne, IND (20 targets)
2. Roddy White, ATL (16 targets)
3. Mike Williams, TB (14 targets)
4. Chris Cooley, WAS (12 targets)
5. Santonio Holmes, NYJ (12 targets)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (11 targets)
7. Malcom Floyd, SD (11 targets)
8. Brandon Lloyd, DEN (11 targets)
9. Ben Watson, CLE (11 targets)
10. Anthony Armstrong, WAS (10 targets)
11. Chad Ochocinco, CIN (10 targets)
12. Steve Smith, CAR (10 targets)

FSH: FANTASY WATCH

December 10th, 2010, Friday

Fantasy Watch

Greg Jennings: Poised For Another Big Game

The Packer’s leading receiver has been on fire over the past several weeks for fantasy owners. He’s simply been a force on the field for opposing defenses to reckon with and based on his numbers, they are falling way short.

In Greg Jennings’ last three games he has a total of 18 receptions and five touchdown grabs. Since week six he has not been held to less than five catches in a game and that has only happened once. Through 12 games this season he has 11 touchdowns and he has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in three straight games.

On Sunday he’ll meet the Lions in a rematch from week four when he only had two grabs for 25 yards and a score; that won’t happen again. The Lions are ranked 16th against the pass, but in each of their last two games they have allowed the leading receiver for the opposition to top 100 yards. The secondary has also surrendered five touchdowns in the past two weeks, including 21 for the year.

Fantasy owners keep your eye on Jennings; he has been one of Rodgers very favorites (24 targets) over the past three weeks and will be on his radar this Sunday. This will undoubtedly be another strong outing for number 85.

Sunday’s projections against the Lions
(10 targets, 7 receptions, 115 yards passing, 1-touchdowns)

Matt Forte: The Bear’s Great Equalizer

Like a heavyweight bout, it would not be wise the Bears offense to try and stand toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday. Over the past four weeks the Patriots are averaging 40 points per game, while the Bears are posting at a 24.5 clip. If the Bears hope to contend this weekend, they will need to stick to what’s working.

In their last four games the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards, averaging 33 rushing plays per game. Without question running back Matt Forte has been the team’s best and most effective runner averaging 86 yards per contest and 4.7 yards per carry. Forte has also managed to punch it in a couple of times over the four game stretch.

While the Patriots offense has been lighting up the scoreboard over the past couple of weeks, the Patriots run defense has shown some vulnerability. In its’ last two weeks the Patriots have allowed 281 yards on the ground and 4.8 yards per carry.

If the Bears are going to keep this one close and have a shot at the end, expect Mike Martz to dial up a lot of Forte and Bears ground game to keep Brady on the sideline.

Sunday’s projections against the Patriots
(22 carries, 105 yards rushing, 3 catches, 25 yards receiving, one touchdowns)

Just my take.

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 10th, 2010 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

TASHARD CHOICE IS THE MAN OF CHOICE
After turning in an impressive showing last when he rushed for over 100 yards, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys call Tashard Choice’s number often with Marion Barber banged up. Last Sunday Choice carried the ball 19 times and scored once on a 20 yard scamper.
My Fantasy Read:
Choice is making a hard case to be more involved with the offense and from the sounds coming from Dallas that just may be the plan. Choice will face a tenacious Philly defense, but also one that only ranks12th against the run. Even splitting carries Choice should be a safe play this week in most formats as the Eagles have allowed 239 yards on the ground in their past games, including one rushing touchdown last week.

MOJO IS A ONE MAN SHOW
The Jaguars are reverting to playing straight up smash mouth football and led by their running back Maurice Jones-Drew, they look like they can be successful at it. Last Sunday MoJo toted the rock 31 times on his way to 186 yards rushing; his highest total of his career). It was also his fifth straight game with over 100 yards rushing.
My Fantasy Read:
The Jaguars have won four of their last five with MoJo averaging 25 carries per game. It looks like head coach Jack Del Rio is putting all his eggs in MJD’s bread-basket; fantasy owners won’t have to worry about the touches slowing down.

JAMAAL CHARLES STILL RUNNING BIG
The league’s leading ground game is anchored by the legs of running back Jamaal Charles and last Sunday he continued his running ways. Charles tallied over 100 yards on the ground for the third time this season while catching a pair of passes for another 20 yards.
My Fantasy Read:
Even with splitting carries with running back Thomas Jones, Charles sees enough action to be a safe fantasy one running back. In his last three games he’s averaging 21 touches per game and 146 yards of offense.

TOM BRADY; THAT’S MR. PERFECT TO YOU
Monday night the Patriot’s field general treated the fans of New England and a national audience to something special as he put on aerial butt whooping. Brady completed 21 of 29 passes for 326 yards and tossed four touchdowns (second time in as many weeks) while posting a passer rating of 148.9. This season Brady has posted a rating of 100 or higher eight times, including a current streak of four straight.
My Fantasy Read:
Brady is quickly making many “I think Joe Montana is the best quarterback” fans nervous with his brilliant play. Needless to say Brady looks to be golden with the fantasy playoffs now underway. With matchups against the Bears, Packers, and the Bills up next, can his fantasy owners say “championship!”

FSH: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

December 8th, 2010, Wednesday

My Weekly Survivors

Week 13 was not my best, but a definite turnaround for the disappointment that was week 12. I still can’t figure out the tight end spot; maybe that’s because I have been riding the Bill’s defense all season long and they have finally figured it out. Last week the Bills defense limited the Viking’s tight Visanthe Shiancoe to just 17 yards receiving (one fantasy point). What a dud. My Sam Bradford pick at quarterback did not pan out to well either; 187 yards passing, no touchdowns, and just 7 fantasy points.

Now my backfield and receivers however did show up in week 13 totaling 64 points. This group was led by my Arian Foster pick who started things off last Thursday with 22 points (83 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards, two total touchdowns). The Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart with the help of his 92 yards rushing and one touchdown effort chipped in 15 points. Both Raven’s receiver Anquan Boldin (17 points) and Bengal’s wide out Terrell Owens (10 points) were solid as well.

Looking at the overall standings I currently have a firm lock at a top 10 spot, but if I am going to make a run at the big boys at the top I still have a lot of work left trailing by over 100 ponts. This week presents even more challenges for me needless to say, but with nothing to lose and a title to chase I am rolling the dice!

Here are my picks for week 14….

QB-Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
The Bears quarterback has been on a roll lately. In his past two starts he has completed nearly 75 peercent of his passes and thrown five touchdowns with zero picks. The Patriots look dominant Monday night especially on offense, but their secondary still looks like it can be had. Cutler is a gambler and no doubt will take his shots downfield against a secondary (ranked 31st) that has allowed 43 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season.
(Projected: 23 fantasy points/ 225 yards passing, 20 rushing yards, three touchdowns)

RB- Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
The Bronco’s running back has been a real workhorse over the past three weeks averaging nearly 21 touches per game and 137 yards. His numbers include 14 receptions and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos are coming off a poor offensive showing from a week ago and will to get healthy against a defense (ranked 28th overall) that allows over 28 points per game.
(Projected: 25 fantasy points/ 110 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, two touchdown)

RB-Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals running back enjoyed one of his best efforts of the season a week ago with 81 yards rushing against the Rams. This week he draws the league’s 31st ranked run defense that has surrendered 16 rushing touchdowns in 2010. It sounds like it could be another good week for Hightower.
(Projected: 15 fantasy points/ 85 yards rushing, 1 catches, 10 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts receiver had a huge game a week ago against the Cowboys. This Thursday there’s no doubt the defense will be focused on stopping him, but in this must game for Indy you can bet Manning will find a way to get him the ball.
(Projected: 13 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 70 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers big play receiver has cooled off a bit as of late, but since week nine he remains the team’s most targeted receiver with 36. Over that span Wallace has snagged 24 balls and scored four times. On Sunday he’ll lineup against the Bengal’s 15th ranked pass defense that struggles with pressure (just 14 sacks this season). If Big Ben has time to throw, expect to see him hook up with Wallace a couple of times downfield.
(Projected: 16 fantasy points/ 5 catches, 105 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
Since week 10 the Cowboys tight end has been the most targeted receiver on the team with 22. This Sunday he will square off with the leagues 17th ranked pass defense that has allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season. This is the first matchup this season between these two clubs and last season in two games Witten grabbed 13 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. With no Dez Bryant available, Witten looks to be a hot prospect in the red zone.
(Projected: 13 fantasy points/ 7 catches, 75 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Billy Cundiff, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens meet the Texans on Monday night in Houston which takes any possibility of wind out of the equation. With the Texans allowing almost 27 points per game Cundiff should be pretty busy on National TV.
(Projected: 9 fantasy points/ two field goals, three extra points)

My Previous starts

Week 1 (Total points-77)
QB Donovan McNabb (WAS)
RB Matt Forte (CHI)
RB Carnell Williams (TB)
WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
WR Jabar Gaffney (DEN)
TE Zach Miller (OAK)
K Joe Nedney (SF)

Week 2 (Total points-68)
QB Michael Vick (PHI)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
WR Nate Washington (TEN)
WR Greg Jennings (GB)
TE Chris Cooley (WAS)
K Nick Folk (NYJ)

Week 3 (Total points-87)
QB Tony Romo (DAL)
RB Darren McFadden
RB Ray Rice (BAL)
WR Austin Collie (IND)
WR Dez Bryant (DAL)
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
K Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

Week 4 (Total points-58)
QB Eli Manning (NYG)
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
RB Frank Gore (SF)
WR Mark Clayton (STL)
WR Brandon Marshall (MIA)
TE John Carlson (SEA)
K Jeff Reed (PIT)

Week 5 (Total Points-72 points)
QB Drew Brees (NO)
RB Steven Jackson (STL)
RB Thomas Jones (KC)
WR Donald Driver (GB)
WR Calvin Johnson (DET)
TE Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
K Mike Nugent (CIN)

Week 6 (Total Points-83 points)
QB Peyton Manning (IND)
RB Ryan Torain (WASH)
RB LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ)
WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
WR Kenny Britt (TEN)
TE Dallas Clark, (IND)
K Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

Week 7 (Total Points-93 points)
QB Philip Rivers (SD)
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)
RB Michael Turner (ATL)
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE Tony Gonzales (ATL)
K Matt Prater (DEN)

Week 8 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Kyle Orton (DEN)
RB Felix Jones (DAL)
RB Jamaal Charles (KC)
WR Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
WR Deion Branch (NE)
TE Tony Moeki (KC)
K Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

Week 9 (Total Points-79 points)
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RB LeSean McCoy (PHI)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Patrick Crayton (SD)
TE Jacob Tamme (IND)
PK Mason Crosby

Week 10 (Total Points-78 points)
QB Joe Flacco (BAL)
RB LeGarrette Blount (TB)
RB Cedric Benson (CIN)
WR Roddy White (ATL)
WR Steve Johnson (BUF)
TE Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
PK Rob Bironas (TEN)

Week 11 (Total Points-73 points)
QB Matt Ryan (ATL)
RB Fred Jackson (BUF)
RB Peyton Hillis (CLE)
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI)
WR Percy Harvin (MIN)
TE Jermaine Gresham (CIN)
PK Dan Carpenter (MIA)

Week 12 (Total Points-55 points)
QB Matt Cassel (KC)
RB Chris Johnson (TEN)
RB Danny Woodhead (NE)
WR Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
WR Sidney Rice (MIN)
TE Heath Miller (PIT)
PK Matt Bryant (ATL)

Week 13 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Sam Bradford (STL)
RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
RB Arian Foster (HOU)
WR Terrell Owens (CIN)
WR Anquan Boldin (BAL)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN)
PK David Akers (PHI)

FSH: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

December 7th, 2010, Tuesday

Monday Morning Huddle
(Tuesday Edition)

It has been a while since I have taken the time to do any extensive ink (or in the digital age, pixel ) work for my usual Monday piece. And well I thought it was time to shake off the cob webs and get things kick started once again. Now I know this piece was intended for a Monday delivery, but better late Tuesday than never. With pen in hand or keyboard to be literal let’s get to what makes football great or at least interesting;

Top Stories

The Impact of No Favre
Could there really be a possibility that the great one they call Brett Favre may actually have to sit out a game on Sunday. Now this is big news considering the last time Brett did not start a game on Sunday the first Bush President was in office; now that’s quite a while.

As most that follow the great game of American football may have suspected the 41-year old gunslinger was banged up pretty good on Sunday suffering a sprained shoulder. Now there have been a few mixed reports, but the gist of it is he’s injured and the shoulder injury is his throwing shoulder. It has yet to be determined and won’t be until Thursday when Favre returns to practice if he will play, but his absence from the lineup appears hardly anything to be of concern for fantasy owners.

Last Sunday when Favre went down early in the first quarter, backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson took the field in relief and showed folks and fans alike a lot to behold. Jackson had great mobility and awareness in the pocket. He also showed great confidence in his receivers and showed no fear heaving the pigskin downfield.

For most a healthy Brett Favre under center would be the preference, but after watching Jackson complete 68 percent of his throws and connect with fantasy favorite wide receiver Sidney Rice, I would think he’ll do. Jackson also gives the offensive line a little more help with his speed, quickness and mobility. His ability to extend plays could lead to some big plays down the field; which every fantasy owner loves.

No More Josh in Denver
I really don’t believe there is anyone in Denver that could say they were surprised by the move; maybe folks outside of Colorado may have raised an eyebrow. After the recent scandal of Spygate II and another umimpressive effort, the writing was definitely on the wall (more like graffiti on a bill board).

Less than two seasons ago McDaniels ushered in a new Era and borught with him a new attitude; unfortunately an attitude that many of the team’s best players didn’t agree with. In less than two full seasons McDaniels managed to trade away a franchise quarterback, an elite wide receiver, and what we are now seeing a versatile, talented, and productive running back. Most impotantly after starting out his NFL coaching career with an impressive 6-0 record, he was unable to recreate any of that magic at any point since losing the next 17 of his 22 games coached.

Enough with the bad, what McDaniels did manage to do well while on the Broncos sidelines was rejuvenate and elevate a couple of careers. It doesn’t appear to be any kind of coincidence to see quarterback Kyle Orton and wide receiver Brandon Lloyd enjoying career years when you think about what Josh did his last season in New England with Matt Cassel (3,693 yards passing and 21 touchdowns in 2008).

McDaniels departure will leave a lot of questions for the franchise to address and answer, but for concerned fantasy owners there should be no cause for alarm. The Bronco’s featured running back Knowshon Moreno has been on a tear of late averaging well over 100 yards of total offense over his past four starts. With the offense playing as well as it has don’t expect interim coach Eric Studesville to tinker with the radio too much. Except for maybe a slight more conservative approach (which could mean more touches for Moreno), I would look for a lot of the same from Orton (3,487 yards passing,20 touchdowns), Lloyd (60 receptions, 9 touchdowns), and the boys on offense.

With their defense ranked 27th overall and allowing nearly 28 points per game, if any changes are to be made that’s likely the best place to start.

Diamonds in the Rough

WR-Anthony Armstrong

The Redskins have had, to say at the very least a tumultuous season and they don’t even have Brett Favre on their roster. Nonetheless their season has not been without its’ fair-share of high noon drama. From Haynesworth to McNabb, from McNabb to Shanahan, and from Shanahan to the carousel of running backs the Redskins carry, there seems to be little inviting for fantasy owners to consider. Once you look past McNabb, Moss, and Cooley, there’s just not much left; with the exception of wide receiver Anthony Armstrong.

The rookie receiver has really made strides this season as a playmaker with four games this season with at least 80 yards receiving; including six catches for 97 yards and a touchdown last week. On the year Armstrong has caught 31 passes for 642 yards, but only two scores. He certainly has big play potential as evident on Sunday as he consistently beat the Giants secondary downfield.

In his last two games he has had 17 targets and since week 10 he is second only to Chris Cooley (36 targets) with 29 targets. After a nice performance this past week, this Sunday will be a nice test for the rook and could ultimately determine if he is fantasy playoff worthy. If the rookie should prove his worthiness on a consistent level this week, with some favorable matchups coming up with the Cowboys (week 15) and Jaguars (week 16) he could be a diamond in the rough ready to shine.

RB-James Stark

The Green Bay Packers have been utterly crippled at the running back position this season, but they don’t let that stop them from telling everyone they are 8-4 and still in the hunt to win the NFC North. Ranked 23rd in rushing this season the Packers have been going through a complete laundry list of running backs (which includes fullback John Kuhn) trying to find the answer for replacing the injured Ryan Grant who was placed on IR back in week one.

Last Sunday against the 49ers stout 10th ranked run defense that only allows 3.6 yards per carry, the Packers may have found what they were looking for; rookie running back James Stark. In his first action this season, Starks debuted in impressive fashion with 18 carries for 73 yards on the ground. It might be a little quick to jump on this ship, but Starks 18 carries tied for the most by a Packer running back in any game this season. Another impressive note to consider, leading up to the Sunday matchup with San Francisco running back Brandon Jackson was expected to be the “main guy.” Starks was so impressive on Sunday running hard and making positive yards with every opportunity that Jackson was limited to just four carries himself.

Great expectations might be a small stretch, but Starks looks like a shiny rock ready to flash some bling-bling in the fantasy playoffs.

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 6th, 2010 Monday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

SIDNEY RICE SHOWS OLD FORM
In only his third game back from injury the Vikings receiver Sidney Rice flashed some of the that Pro Bowl form from last season making a couple circus grabs for a pair of scores on Sunday. On the day Rice finished with five receptions for 105 yards receiving to go with his two touchdown catches.
My Fantasy Read:
Rice looked like his old self making plays last Sunday. Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, whether it’s Favre or Jackson under center Rice looks to be a safe play the rest of the way.

BRONCOS DEFENSE SHUTS DOWN BOWE
The Broncos have not had a lot to stand up and cheer about, in particular the defense and the secondary. Over the past month the Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has been a beast terrorizing opposing defenses. On Sunday he was completely shadowed and shut down by cornerback Champ Bailey who held the Chief’s receiver without a catch. Bowe was targeted just three times and had two receptions called back, one on pass interference and the other he failed to get his feet down.
My Fantasy Read:
It was an impressive effort for Bailey and the league’s heavily scrutinized 22nd ranked pass defense. This week the Broncos will face the struggling Arizona Cardinals. With Bailey playing this well, a new quarterback under center, Larry Fitzgerald owners have cause to be concerned.

STEVIE JOHNSON STRUGGLES IN WEEK 13
The Bills breakout receiver this season came off one of his worst moments last week, dropping the game winner to playing one of his worst games this past Sunday. Johnson grabbed just passes on four targets that included one drop. The Vikings steam rolled the Bills in the first half, forcing them to become more one dimensional. Lots of pressure in the second half really disrupted the Bills ability to effective throw the ball, add five turnovers that crippled their day and it’s easy to see why the passing game struggled.
My Fantasy Read:
Johnson has been having a big season, but Sunday they were dismantled completely by their own mistakes and missed opportunities. This week Johnson and Bills passing game should be able to bounce back against the Browns 20th ranked pass defense; as long as they clean up the mistakes.

ARMSTRONG HAS BIG AFTERNOON
The Redskins 1st year receiver Anthony Armstrong has been up and down most of the season, but on Sunday he was definitely on the rise coming up with some big catches late in a game that had been long decided. Armstrong snagged six balls on 10 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. It was only his second score of the 2010 season.
My Fantasy Read:
Over the past two weeks Armstrong has been the busiest wide receiver on the field with 17 targets, but his inconsistency could be a concern (just two grabs in week 12). The upside is the speedy wide out consistently gets open downfield and McNabb still has the arm to get him the ball. He’s a risky play, but if the matchup is right he could be nice sleeper in deeper leagues.