FSH NOTEBOOK: DAIVD'S DAILY DIGEST

October 17th 2017

Tuesday Late-Night Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

Week 7

As fantasy leagues push deeper into the fantasy season, owners will continue to go to the waiver wire well each week to drink. Fortunately as we enter week 7 of the NFL season and fantasy season, the well has not gone dry; well at least in redraft leagues it hasn’t.

If you are streaming your quarterback position through the bye week, the Jets quarterback Josh McCown has been steady this season. He’s averaging over 13 fantasy points per week and checks in as the No.19 fantasy QB this season. McCown is coming off a strong Week 6 performance with 20.26 fantasy points and has thrown 2 touchdowns in each of his last 2 starts. Back in week 3 McCown totaled 14.66 fantasy points against the Dolphins (the Jets week 7 opponent) and he looks poised to do as much this week.

In the backfield, it looks like the Giants have found a running game behind the efforts of running back Orleans Darkwa. In his last two games Darkwa has gained 186 yards on 29 carries with a rushing touchdown. He’s a nice week 7 grab with the potential of a feature back workload, based on his Sunday night performance against the Broncos (21 carries). His next opponent is the Eagles who have been good against the run, but so were the Broncos.

At the wideout spot, the Titans wide receiver Eric Decker looks to be falling in rhythms with his quarterback and is coming off a solid Monday night game. Based on his numbers entering Week 6, Decker is sure to be lingering on the waiver wire. This is a good time to grab Decker with a week 7 matchup against a Browns defense that just surrendered 3 touchdowns to wide receivers this past Sunday.

One of the reasons for McCown’s steady play is the emergence of his tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. After serving his two-game suspension to start the season, Seferian-Jenkins has been steadily coming on. In his past two games the Jets tight end has totaled 19 targets, turning in 14 receptions for 75 yards and two scores. He’s a red-zone gem and has now become one of the featured targets in the passing game. He’s a must grab this week off the waiver wires.

Drop of the Week

In PPR formats, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has fallen outside the Top-40 (39 in standard). In his last two games Stewart has totaled just 17 rushing yards on 26 carries. He’s coming off not only his worst performance of the season, but of his career. It’s time to let him go, there are plenty of better options available at this point.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Week 3 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So a quick look back at Week 2; we didn’t do too bad. I’m never going to jump through hoops or bury my head in the sand, because I know this is not an exact science. But I will admit, it always feels good to get some call right; last week quarterback Jameis Winston wasn’t brilliant, but he didn’t hurt your lineup either.

You’ll notice I always favor my scoring takes and breakdown toward PPR (love this format), so on that note, running back Melvin Gordon (No.8 RB last week), wide receiver Mike Evans (No.6 WR last week), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (No.3 TE last week) all scored very well. In the flex spot, I whiffed with Larry Fitzgerald; 6 targets for 3 receptions and 21 yards (finished outside the Top-50).

You win some, you lose some, let’s see how we do in week 3. Here are my picks for Week 3;

Quarterback

I’m not a Chargers fan by any mean, but I love Philip Rivers grit. The kid is tough as nails and in his 14th season he can still sling it all over the yard. He’s home this week and gets a favorable matchup against a leaky Chiefs secondary that is ranked 29th (before the Thursday Night game) against the pass. Rivers have plenty of weapons and will need to utilize all in what figures to be a shootout. I expect a big day for Rivers; 330 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and a pick.

Running Back

In my backfield this week I’ll be lining up the Panthers Jonathan Stewart. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been steady currently the No. 26 fantasy RB. He’s a worthy of a flex play, but this week against a soft Saints defense he could put up Top-15 fantasy numbers. Saints do a poor job versus the run ranked 24th, so I expect the Panthers to lean on the ground game. With 33 carries in two games thus far, I expect Stewart to lead the ground charge; 20 carries, 105 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards, and a rushing touchdown.

Wide Receiver

This week I am lining up out wide the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Sure the Patriots know that Hopkins is the only real receiving threat the Texans have, but through two weeks quarterback Deshaun Watson has been able to pepper his favorite target with a heavy diet. Through two weeks Hopkins has been targeted 29 times (leads all receivers) and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. He’s sure to see at least 10 targets on Sunday and the Patriots secondary is not good enough to shut him down. I’d look for a modest line of 7 receptions for 80 yards and a score.

Tight End

My tight end for week 3 is a bit of a risky play The Raiders Jared Cook has seen a steady diet of targets (11 total) in each of the first two weeks, but it has yet to convert into any real production. Cook has just 9 receptions for 81 yards in two games, good enough for the No.18 fantasy TE. This week I expect to see a significant rise in product against a Redskins defense that ranks 28th against the pass (before the Thursday Night game) and has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This week Cook scores; 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Flex

Going to reach a little, very little with this pick of running back Lamar Miller. The Patriots are not great against the run, currently ranked 26th and the Texans will have to shorten this one if they hope to keep it close. I am expecting the Texans game plan to be run, run, run and the beneficiary will be Miller. He has 40 touches in 2 games and could see a spike in touches on Sunday. I’m not expecting a big day, but a strong stat line of; 18 carries, 90 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards, and a score.

For those of us engaged in DFS or team defense leagues;

Defense; I am running with the Steelers this week. Looking at the numbers, the Bears struggle with keeping their quarterback upright and the Steelers bring pressure (9 sacks in 2 games). The Bears offense also ranks 20th in total offense, buried in the lower half of the league. The Steel Curtain should feast this Sunday.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

For those that may be interested, here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday (Week 3) on DraftKings;

QB-Philip Rivers ($6,400): At this price, I believe Rivers is a great value and I happen to like his week 3 matchup very much as well. The Chiefs defense allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and with their offense putting up points on the Chargers 20th ranked defense that sits well with me. I expect to see Rivers slinging it all over the yard, just trying to keep up with Alex Smith the Sunshine Band.

RB-Lamar Miller ($5,000): Yes, that’s right Miller. Bill O’Brien and the Texans are going to have to shorten this game as much as possible, if they stand a chance to keep it competitive. Miller, the No.19 (PPR) fantasy running back has yet to exceed 20 carries in a game this season (his high is 18), but I expect he’s got a good shot at doing just that this Sunday against a Patriots defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Miller Gold has a nice ring, don’t you think?

RB-Jonathan Stewart ($4,700): Now here’s the bargain of the week, Stewart for $4,700 at the Saints. Through two weeks Stewart has carried the rock 33 times for 105 yards, not a great average. He’ll get a great shot at redemption and much better numbers this Sunday against a Saints defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Saints defense has also allowed the 4th most fantasy points (27.00) to opposing running backs, which means both Panthers backs should be productive.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,200): This is the stack play with Keenan and Rivers, but could you blame me? His price is in line, especially following a week 2 with 10 targets for 9 receptions and 100 yards receiving. Allen is consistent and unquestionably Rivers favorite. You should be able to count on another 8-10 targets on Sunday against a Chiefs secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers

WR-Jermaine Kearse ($4,600): Another bargain, with a little risk. But at his price it’s hard to pass on Kearse. Through two games he’s been the most reliable and productive receiver on the field for the Jets. I expect to see his number continue to be called and against a shaky Dolphins secondary he should have lots of success.

WR-Adam Thielen ($5,700): There’s likely no Sam Bradford this Sunday, he’s still dealing with a knee issue. As was the case last week, in the absence of Bradford, backup Case Keenum got the start. Keenum will likely start again and for Thielen owners that’s not all bad. Last week Thielen led the team in receptions (5), but for only 44 yards. Keenum started slow, but didn’t look all bad giving me the belief he may be serviceable this week and Thielen might be playable. At his price and going up against a Buccaneers secondary that allowed over 200 yards to wide receivers last week, you have to take a shot here with Thielen.

TE-Travis Kelce ($6,000): In two games Kelce has been greatly involved in the Chiefs passing game with 17 targets producing a line of 13/143/1. He’s the No.2 (PPR) fantasy tight end and coming off a strong week 2 performance. The way Andy Reid has been utilizing his big tight end through two weeks, the Chargers defense is going to have a tough time handling. And now Kelce has a nice compliment of weapons around him on the field to draw attention away, he should have another busy afternoon on Sunday

Flex-Ty Montgomery ($6,900): With bargain runners I have slotted, I was able to go a little higher with my flex and what a deal! Montgomery has seen plenty of work through two weeks and even if they dial it back a bit, he’ll still see plenty of touches this Sunday against the Bengals. Montgomery is No.4 (PPR) fantasy running back averaging 19.5 touches per game. Expect his workload to remain in line this week with the prospect of Randall Cobb out and Jordy Nelson possibly being slowed with a bruised quad.

D/ST-Steelers ($3,400): Playing by the numbers here. Steelers are well priced and the Bears offense has not played well. The Bears O-line has allowed only 5 sacks, but they have allowed the quarterback to take a ton of hits (18) in two games. And what do the Steelers do well; 9 sacks (ranked 3rd) and hit the quarterback 16 times this season (tied for 2nd most).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th 2017

Sunday Late Night Edition

Sunday Heroes

&

Lineup Killers

Here is the Week 1 run down of those players that may have saved your weekly matchup and scored you some green in DFS and those that cost you chances at both;

Sunday Heroes

Antonio Brown (Steelers-WR) Brown was solid on Sunday as the league’s No.2 wideout as he received a large volume or work finishing with 11 grabs for 182 yards.

Kenny Golladay (Lions-WR) The rookie wideout breaks out in week 1 with 4 catches for 69 yards and two scores. Strong start for Golladay, looks like a weekly favorite as a flex.

Austin Cooper (Falcons-TE) Not a lot of volume for the Falcons tight end just two targets, but  Cooper comes up big with 128 yards receiving and a score. Too soon to jump on this band wagon, but keep tabs on him as a possible bye week fill.

LeSean McCoy (Bills-RB) Just as most figured, Shady received a heavy workload on Sunday and turned in a big day with 159 total yards on 27 touches.

Jonathan Stewart (Panthers-RB) The Panthers starter received 20 touches on Sunday, turning them into 82 total yards and a score to remain fantasy relevant.

Leonard Fournette (Jaguars-RB) The rookie proved to be the new beast of the NFL, at least for this week totaling for 124 yards (100 rushing) and adding a TD.

Todd Gurley (Rams-RB) The Rams ball carrier was not spectacular, but he was productive totaling 96 yards with a score on 24 touches.

Matthew Stafford (Lions-QB) The Lions signal caller started shaky, but finished hot on Sunday passing for 292 yards and tossing four scores.

Golden Tate (Lions-WR) The Lions receiver continues to prove he’s a solid starting fantasy option and one of Stafford’s favorites; 10 catches, 107 yards receiving in week 1.

Cooper Kupp (Rams-WR) The rookie wideout played like a sleeper waking up, grabbing 4 of 6 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. A favorable streaming option and flex play.

Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys-RB) The Cowboys star running back continued to shine Sunday night totaling 140 yards on 29 touches to his fantasy owners delight.

Tarik Cohen (Bears-RB) The Bears rookie (Cohen who?) totaled 113 yards on 13 touches and added a receiving touchdown. You may not know who he is, but you’ll hear his name again next week.

Ty Montgomery (Packers-GB) The Packers starting running back was featured on Sunday, seeing 24 touches totaling 93 yards with a rushing touchdown. As long as he’s healthy he’s needs to be starting.

Lineup Killers

Kendall Wright (Bears-WR) A risky play in a poor offense that did not pay off. Wright only say four targets on Sunday, turning in a line of 3/34.

Bilal Powell (Jets-RB) Like the Jets offense on Sunday, Powell struggled totaling just 39 yards on 12 touches.

Jamison Crowder (Redskins-WR) The Offense struggled just like it did in the preseason and Crowder was nowhere to be found; 3 receptions for 14 yards.

LeVeon Bell (Steelers-RB) Bell returned to camp a week ago, but left his form at home. On 13 touches he totaled only 47 yards.

Martavis Bryant (Steelers-WR) It was pretty obvious he needs more time working with the offense. Bryant and his quarterback were out of sync all day; 2 catches on 6 targets.

John Brown (Cardinals-WR) Too much hype leading into week 1. Owners will need to see more substance before playing Brown in the future; week 1 line 4/32.

Carson Palmer (Cardinals-QB) Palmer showed his age with some poor throws and inconsistency as he really struggled with turnovers (3 interceptions on Sunday).

Kelvin Benjamin (Panthers-WR) Cam Newton did not look accurate with some of his throws. It may be too early to rely on Benjamin as a weekly play, owners will need to see improved play; 1 catch for 25 yards on 5 targets.

DeMarco Murray (Titans-RB) A disappointing outing on Sunday for fantasy owners as Murray registered just 12 carries for 44 yards on the ground and 2 catches for 16 yards. It’s too soon to bail out on Murray, a tough start but he should get it turned around.

Isaiah Crowell (Browns-RB) The Browns running back was unspectacular for owners on Sunday totaling just 66 yards on 19 touches. It was a bad Sunday, but not a time to panic.

Brian Hoyer (Niners-QB) Hoyer’s first start as a Niner was underwhelming as he passed for only 193 yards with an interceptions. He’s not roster worthy at this time.

Frank Gore (Colts-RB) Without Luck the offense will struggle and splitting carries with the rookie Marlon Mack will limit Gore’s ceiling; 11 touches for 52 total yards.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks-WR) Need to see a larger sample size from Lockett. He’s unproven and not consistent enough to start; one catch for 8 yards.

And That’s My Week 1 Take!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th 2017

Monday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Late Round Values

Part of a any great draft is being able to find value wherever you can. With so many studs loaded up front, there’s just more talent available than value. As your fantasy drafts progress you will see some players fall much further than expected and that’s where you will find the value to make your draft a success.

What I am saying, players like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are going to come off the board early and even players like Michael Thomas and the Jordan Howard will go quick. But once you get into the mid-rounds you’re going to see certain players that have legitimate upside still sitting there.

One player I like is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. With Jordan Matthews now off to Buffalo, his departure has opened up 117 targets in the Eagles passing game from a season ago. Ertz is going to be one of quarterback Carson Wentz primary targets this season and should be in line for a heavier dose of targets, coming off 106 from last season. Currently his ADP is 101.4 according to FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12 team leagues and he’s going off the board as the No. 9 fantasy tight end, so he’s someone with upside that you can wait on.

Another potential hidden gem is Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley. He looked very good in the team’s dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Bengals finishing with 57 yards rushing and figures to be the starter to open the season. Kelley is currently going off the board as the No. 34 fantasy running back with an ADP of 7.05 (according to FFC). Last season Kelley only started 9 games, playing in 15 and finished as the No. 26 fantasy runner in standard leagues. I love his value at his current ADP, he is virtually a steal and could be a nice flex option during the early bye weeks.

Like Kelley, the Panthers Jonathan Stewart is going off the board fairly late; the No. 41 fantasy running back according to FFC. His ADP of 9.01 puts him around the 9th round and a nice value for owners looking to add depth. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, but Stewart is still going to be involved and tackle most of the heavy lifting in short-yardage and possibly goal line. Stewart was the No. 29 back last season and should see enough work between the 20s to reach the similar numbers this season. His ceiling may be limited, but he’s got a nice floor owners can work with.

With the sudden loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, there is going to be a lot more balls to go around in the Patriots passing game. Already considered hot fantasy stocks, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks should now see a spike in their target share this season. Another benefactor will be running back James White. Last season the Patriots ball carrier also managed 60 receptions on 86 targets finishing as the No. 26 fantasy back in PPR. He could easily see north of 100 targets this season and finish around near the top 20. With a current ADP of 13.05 (according to FFC) and going off the board outside the top 50 for running backs, White is basically going undrafted and risk free in any format.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 16th, 2016
Sunday Morning edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

We have less than 90 minutes until gametime and looking at some of the injury forecasts for today, I have a couple of tid-bits I will throw into the pot. These are just some of my favorite starts and sits for Sunday week 6.

"Who's In, Who's Out"

The Dolphins will roll out running back Arian Foster today against the Steelers. Foster has been out for several weeks with injury and has always been a health risk for fantasy owners. If you lack better options, he's a week 6 PPR start for me this week; he's in.

The Bengals will be tested today, but an upstart Patriots defense riding the high of the return of their team leader Tom Brady. The Pats offense will put a lot of pressure on the Bengals "O' today to match scores. AJ Green is the likely popular play in Cincy, but I like wide receiver Brando Lafell to contribute to day. He's more of a mid-to-low WR3, but I am playing him where I can; he's in.

A new offensive coordinator in Baltimore and maybe the team will committ more to the run this week. Last Sunday running back Terrance West was having a solid day, but just finished with 11 carries for 95 yards. This week I expect to see the Ravens to stay with the run a little longer equating to more than 11 carries for West. He's a mid-to-high RB3 this week against the Giants, but I like his chances to score; he's in.

With Jonathan Stewart returning to the lineup this week, running back Fozzy Whittaker will be returning to my bench. He's could see some work in the pass game, but in week one playing behind Stewart, Whittaker saw just 4 touches. He's out for me today.

I have Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant in a couple of leagues myself and with the 4pm EST kick-off, the risk seems too high. The Cowboys have a bye next week and it makes more sense to get their star receiver back to 100% health, rather than rushing him out there on to the field. Dez is out for me today.

That's My Take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2016
Wednesday Evening Edition

Waiver Wire Wednesday

It's week 3 of the fantasy season and it's time to start looking for needed help for those owners that have yet to get out of the gate at 0-2. For those of you that have fared a little better, there's always room to improve and here are some names that can offer the needed relief.

The Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta showed up in week 2. He was probably a forgotten name during most drafts, but after his 9 receptions on 12 targets for 102 yards last Sunday owners will remember him again. Pitta had missed all of last season and had only played in 7 games in the prior two seasons before that. He's certainly has the size and familiarity with his quarterback and is definitely Wire Worthy this week.

In Carolina the Panthers are facing a change in their backfield with running back Jonathan Stewart expected to miss time and the next man up could be running back Fozzy Whittaker. The word is committee coming out of Carolina, but Whittaker looks like the best bet. Owners that are thin in their backfield may get some temporary relief, but this is not a long term solution with the Stewart likely to return sooner than later.

After his big passing performance (374 yards in the air) in week 2 on Thursday night quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely one of the hottest players on the waiver wire this week. Fitz is loaded with talented receivers all around him and with a nice complimentary pass catching workhorse in the backfield, he's a potential top10 QB and a favorite of mine going forward. 

In Tampa, if starting running back Doug Martin is sidelined his back up Charles Sims will be he next man up, but could be a tough play in week 3. Sims is more of the prototypical size for running back at 6'0" and 215 yards, but he's yet to do much this season and facing the Rams on Sunday owners will need to proceed with caution.

Just before the season started there was some headlines in Baltimore when the Ravens released running back Justin Forsett, but then days later he was resigned. Forsett was reinserted as the starter when the season began, but his slow start may have landed him into fantasy free agency. Last week he came up with 17 touches and while his fantasy numbers are lagging at the moment he could be working his way back; definitely wire consideration.

That's my take,

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 20th, 2016
Tuesday Evening Edition

Sunday's Heroes

As I have done in the past, it's never a bad idea to take a quick glance at the weekend that just passed to see if we can find some hidden gems or diamonds in the rough. Week two was filled with more NFL exctiting and plenty of fantasy studs and Sunday Heroes worth noting.

These are some of the Sunday's less noticable, but most notable performers for fantasy owners to watch...

With an injury to Panthers starting running back Jonathan Stewart, back-up Fozzy Whittaker was the next man up and filled the spot nicely. The 4th year running back toted the rock 16 times for 100 yards and added three grabs for another 31 yards. If Stewart misses times, Whittaker should be a highly regarded Waiver Wire grab for week 3.

The Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan (730 yards passing, 5 passing touchdowns) is off to a nice start in 2016 as he continued his hot hand on Sunday against the Raiders. Ryan was absolutely magnificent completing over 75% of his throws on his way to nearly 400 yards passing and three scores. Ryan's fantasy value has dipped the past couple of seasons, so he's definitely worth a grab off the wire this week, should be still be out there.

It was not spectacular in volume, but you could not be more efficient than Raven's wide receiver Mike Wallace turning 50% of his grabs into scores. Wallace was targeted 6 times, grabbing four balls for 67 yards. His two scores now give him three on the year. He may still be available, but you can bet he'll be a waiver wire favorite this week.

After a quiet week one, the Titans tight end Delanie Walker showed his fantasy prowess in week 2 against the Lions. Walker was targeted 6 times snagging all 6 for 83 yards with a score. He and his second year quarterback Marcus Mariota have great chemistry, you can expect Walker to remain a TE1 the rest of the way.

After missing the entire 2015 season, Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is back with his large 6'5" frame to show the football world he's not lost a step. On Sunday the third year receiver was electric catching 7 passes for 108 yards and two scores. With 13 receptions, 199 yards receiving and three scores, he's a top 15 WR the rest of way.

On Sunday night under the lights, Vikings second year receiver Stefon Diggs showed is doesn't matter who throws the ball, as long as they throw it to him. Against the Packers Diggs was unstoppable putting on a show to the tune of 9 catches on 11 targets for 182 yards and a score. The Vikings receiver leads the league in receiving yards with 285 and is second in the NFL with 16 grabs. He's on his way to becoming an elite and possibly top 10 WR by years end.

Rounding out the rest of our Sunday heroes...

The Browns running game received a burst of life with Isaiah Crowell's 133 yards on the ground Sunday against the Ravens. Most of his damage was done on a single 85 yard run, so he could be fools gold, but Crowell does have 30 carries this season for 195 yards, so the work is there.

The Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme tallied 5 receptions for 75 yards and a score in week 2. He's averaging 8 targets per game, with that kind of volume it's not hard to imagine Tamme putting up similar numbers on a regular basis; he has the look of a low TE1 and could be a Waiver Wire steal this week.

With Keenan Allen out for the season, next man up was Chargers wide receiver Travis Benjamin and he did not disappoint. He may not be able to carry his 6 catch, 115 yards receiving, and two touchdowns line every week, but he's a top 25 wide receiver right now.

Until the Patriots starting tight end Rob Gronkowski is 100 percent and even when he is, number two tight end Martellus Bennett has value. His 5-6 targets per week will always give him a chance at 5 catches for 114 yards and a score, especially when quarterback Tom Brady returns. Bennett is a high-end TE2.

That's my take for Week 2

~David G Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 22nd, 2010 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

AARON RODGERS RETURNS, BUT A BIG RISK
With this being championship weekend in most fantasy formats, now is not the time to be taking chances. The exception may be when you are talking about a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers; you just might have to roll the dice. This is exactly what the Packers may be facing this week as well with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Rodgers makes his return after missing one game because of a concussion suffered in week 14. His return is good news for Green Bay, but he will be facing one of the league’s toughest pass rushes (Giants). Rodgers has thrown 23 touchdowns this season, but he has also been sacked 27 times.
My Fantasy Read:
Rodgers when healthy is among the best quarterbacks in the league, but with two concussions already this season another hard hit could easily land him back on the bench. He’s a risky play against the Giants (42 sacks) this week, but one that is well worth it.

JACOBY FORD SEEING MORE ACTION
The Raiders speedy receiver has shown big play capability throughout the season and last Sunday against the Broncos was just another example. Ford took an end around run 71 yards to the house to help elevate the Raiders to a 39-23 win. Ford’s workload has been somewhat up and down this season but last week the rookie was targeted five times, caught three balls for 47 yards to go with his long touchdown run.
My Fantasy Read:
Ford is starting to see a steady diet of looks and touches each week. He has only 22 catches this season, but seven are for 20 yards or more. He has three total touchdowns this season and is averaging nearly 19 yards per catch. As explosive as this kid is (two pass plays over 45 yards, 71 yard touchdown run) he can only get better.

BRANDON LLOYD SHOULD BE A SAFE PLAY
The Tebow experiment is well under way and while it may not have been a complete success, it was not all that bad, especially for Brandon Lloyd fantasy owners. Tebow only threw 16 passes in the game, but the good news for owners five went to Lloyd. The Broncos’ top receiver would finish Sunday with four catches for 79 yards and a very fortunate 33 yard touchdown reception.
My Fantasy Read:
With Tebow under center Lloyd is not going to scare any opposing fantasy owners, but still he should remain a safe play this week against the Texans 32nd ranked secondary. With a game under his belt, expect Tebow to put the ball in the air a few more times this Sunday and we know where he will be looking (Lloyd).

JONATHAN STEWART COULD STRUGGLE THURSDAY
The Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has been running ragged over the past several weeks averaging 115 yards rushing per game over his last four. Stewart has also been seeing plenty of work with 78 carries in his last four games. Last Sunday against the Cardinals was his best game of the season with 137 yards on 27 carries.
My Fantasy Read:
Stewart has been hot of late, but he has also been facing some of the bottom half ranked run defenses; Cards-30th, Browns-25th, Seahawks-21st. Thursday night he’ll face the league’s best run defense (Steelers) that has not allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season. The Patriots BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 87 yards in week 10 is the best any runner has done this season against the Steel-Curtain.