Monday, August 28, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th 2017
Monday Night Late Edition





Fantasy Draft Watch

Late Round Values

Part of a any great draft is being able to find value wherever you can. With so many studs loaded up front, there’s just more talent available than value. As your fantasy drafts progress you will see some players fall much further than expected and that’s where you will find the value to make your draft a success.

What I am saying, players like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are going to come off the board early and even players like Michael Thomas and the Jordan Howard will go quick. But once you get into the mid-rounds you’re going to see certain players that have legitimate upside still sitting there.

One player I like is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. With Jordan Matthews now off to Buffalo, his departure has opened up 117 targets in the Eagles passing game from a season ago. Ertz is going to be one of quarterback Carson Wentz primary targets this season and should be in line for a heavier dose of targets, coming off 106 from last season. Currently his ADP is 101.4 according to FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12 team leagues and he’s going off the board as the No. 9 fantasy tight end, so he’s someone with upside that you can wait on.

Another potential hidden gem is Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley. He looked very good in the team’s dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Bengals finishing with 57 yards rushing and figures to be the starter to open the season. Kelley is currently going off the board as the No. 34 fantasy running back with an ADP of 7.05 (according to FFC). Last season Kelley only started 9 games, playing in 15 and finished as the No. 26 fantasy runner in standard leagues. I love his value at his current ADP, he is virtually a steal and could be a nice flex option during the early bye weeks.

Like Kelley, the Panthers Jonathan Stewart is going off the board fairly late; the No. 41 fantasy running back according to FFC. His ADP of 9.01 puts him around the 9th round and a nice value for owners looking to add depth. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, but Stewart is still going to be involved and tackle most of the heavy lifting in short-yardage and possibly goal line. Stewart was the No. 29 back last season and should see enough work between the 20s to reach the similar numbers this season. His ceiling may be limited, but he’s got a nice floor owners can work with.

With the sudden loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, there is going to be a lot more balls to go around in the Patriots passing game. Already considered hot fantasy stocks, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks should now see a spike in their target share this season. Another benefactor will be running back James White. Last season the Patriots ball carrier also managed 60 receptions on 86 targets finishing as the No. 26 fantasy back in PPR. He could easily see north of 100 targets this season and finish around near the top 20. With a current ADP of 13.05 (according to FFC) and going off the board outside the top 50 for running backs, White is basically going undrafted and risk free in any format.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega



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