FSH: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (TARGET PRACTICE)

September 30th, 2010, Thursday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In these hands we trust

Through the first three weeks of football we have seen some familiar names making plays in the passing game, but what fantasy owners need to be watching besides the headlines are those players quietly and steadily getting ready to break out. Aside from the normal names we see, this past weekend there were a couple of players to suddenly steal some fantasy love; last Sunday against the Falcons it was the re-emergence of Saints receiver Lance Moore with a seven targets and a big day receiving (149 yards receiving and two scores), the Bronco’s receiver Jabar Gaffney suddenly became a very relevant consideration with a big day in Denver (12 receptions with 140 yards receiving) and 14 targets, and the Cowboys wide receiver Roy Williams becoming a household name in Big D again with a very productive afternoon (117 yards receiving with two touchdowns) with his steady dose of six targets.

The Usual Suspects…

The usual faces thus far this season topping the list include Roddy White (41 targets) Brandon Marshall (37 targets), and Larry Fitzgerald (34 targets), but one surprise in this mix to watch, both T.O. (33 targets) and Ochocinco (34 targets) seemed to be getting their fair share of touches, so at some point the numbers will have to follow, right?

Some early season starlets…

Through the first three weeks of the 2010 season, 2nd year Colts’ receiver Austin Collie (31 targets) has emerged as Peyton Manning’s go-to receiver. Even when the injured Pierre Garcon returns, it’s hard to imagine number 18 not continuing to look his way. The Niner’s running back Frank Gore has been showcasing his versatility this season and leads all running back with 29 targets and 22 receptions.

Your Target watch….

We can easily see who has done what this season and why, but a few names that might be flying under the radar at the moment that you should keep your eye include; TE-Jermaine Gresham, WR-Michael Crabtree, and TE-Todd Heap.

Jermaine Gresham only has one touchdown and 99 yards receiving through the first three weeks, but quarterback Carson Palmer is looking his way too often for his numbers to stay dormant. With 21 targets, he’s going to see plenty of opportunity going forward to start making more of a difference.

The Niner’s offense is in flux at the moment, but Singletary will soon grab hold of the reigns and get this ship righted. Through the team’s first three games wide receiver Michael Crabtree has only six catches, but 19 targets. If this passing game is going to get off the ground, Crabtree will be a big part going forward.

With all the focus and attention centered on wide receiver Anquan Boldin, quietly tight end Todd Heap is one of his best pass receiving seasons of his career. He is currently on pace to put up close to career numbers in receptions and yards. With 22 targets already in this young season, he looks like a great bet to do just that.

Season Target Leaders...
(Unofficial numbers)

Top 20

1. Roddy White, ATL (41 targets)
2. Brandon Marshall, MIA (37 targets)
3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (34 targets)
4. Chad Ochocinco, CIN (34 targets)
5. Terrell Owens, CIN (33 targets)
6. Austin Collie, IND (31 targets)
7. Santana Moss, WAS (30 targets)
8. Miles Austin, DAL (29 targets)
9. Anquan Boldin, BAL (29 targets)
10. Frank Gore, SFO (29 targets)
11. Andre Johnson, HOU (29 targets)
12. Steve Smith, NYG (29 targets)
13. Calvin Johnson, DET (28 targets)
14. Dallas Clark, IND (27 targets)
15. Mark Clayton, STL (27 targets)
16. Malcom Floyd, SDC (26 targets)
17. Jabar Gaffney, DEN (26 targets)
18. Antonio Gates, SDC (26 targets)
19. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK (26 targets)
20. Reggie Wayne, IND (26targets)
    
    
    
    

    
    
    

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th, 2010, Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

My Fantasy Notes:

JOE FLACCO HAS A BIG PASSING DAY IN WIN OVER THE BROWNS
Joe Flacco finally had a breakout game last weekend against the Cleveland Browns completing 22 of 31 passes for 262 yards. Flacco also connected with his newest and best weapon, wide receiver Anquan Boldin for three scores.
My Fantasy Read:
With a tough matchup this week against Pittsburgh’s Steel Curtain defense Flacco might be a questionable start, but against lesser defenses going forward he and Boldin are only going to get better.

ADRIAN PETERSON LEADS THE WAY FOR VIKINGS IN WEEK THREE
The Vikings monster ground gainer broke loose for big yardage last Sunday against the Lions. Peterson carried the rock 23 times and powered his way to 160 yards on the ground. The former Oklahoma Sooner had scoring runs of 6 yards and 80 yards (his career long). Peterson now has 392 yards rushing this season, good enough for 2nd in the NFL.
My Fantasy Read:
With the passing game in peril at the moment, the broad shoulders of Peterson will have to continue to carry the load on offense. Fortunately for fantasy owners, this kid is strong as an ox and runs like a gazelle. With over 470 yards of offense and three touchdowns this season, All-day shouldn’t have any problem shouldering the load.

THE SANCHISE CONTINUES HIS HOT HAND AGAINST THE PHINS
Last Sunday against Miami Mark Sanchez completed 15 of 28 passes (53.6%) for 256 yards with three touchdowns. The Sanchise finished with a 120.5 passer rating; it was his second in as many games. Sanchez looked decisive and put most of his throws (especially those that counted most) on the money. Sanchez has six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two starts.
My Fantasy Read:
The Sanchise is still a work in progress, but there is no question in his last two starts he looks like he is making great strides. If the Jets do not get too comfortable and can manage to avoid becoming too complacent in their week four matchup with Buffalo (ranked 18th against the pass), Sanchez and the passing game should be fine going forward. The Sanchise is playing well and making good decisions, but it’s still too soon to jump on his fantasy band-wagon.

MICHAEL VICK LEADS THE EAGLES IN SPECTACULAR FASHION
In his second start this season, Mike Vick was everything most thought he might be and certainly more than the Jaguars hoped he would be. Vick was sharp in the pocket throwing for 291 yards in the air on 17 of 31 passing. Vick also connected for three more passing scores. On the year he has six passing touchdowns and no picks.
My Fantasy Read:
Vick has shown that he has grown and matured quite a bit as a passer in this game. It’s still early in the campaign and that’s not to say Vick can’t continue his high level of success, but he’s likely to hit a bump in the road here and there along the way. At this point though, he still looks like a solid fantasy play week in and week out with his rocket arm, soft touch, and shifty legs (another 30 yards rushing on Sunday).

WHERE IS LARRY FITZGERALD?
Last Sunday against the Raiders, the Cardinal’s explosive playmaking receiver Larry Fitzgerald was held to just two catches for 26 yards, albeit one was for a score. For the year Fitz has 12 catches for a paltry 152 yards. He is trying to give his fantasy owners some love with two scores, but no question his numbers on a bit down.
My Fantasy Read:
Nothing to fear here for fantasy owners, even last year Fitz was a bit slow out of the gate with 181 yards receiving and two scores in his first three games. Last season he still finished with nearly 100 catches, over 1,000 yards receiving, and 13 touchdowns; he’s sure to post similar numbers again this season. Keep playing him.

FSH: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

September 30th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

After three weeks of competition my fantasy team currently sits in the 14th spot. We dropped a couple of slots last weekend, but overall I felt we had a pretty good week. The Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo did not disappoint with a strong game and both running back Darren McFadden and wide receiver Autsin Collie both came up big last week. I had a few duds last week, but we’ll press on and finds some real diamonds in the pile for week four. With the first quarter of the season nearing a close, it’s time to make a move and find a seat in the top 10.

This week there are a few interesting matchups and a few favorable ones that look too good to pass on…

QB-Eli Manning, New York Giants
The Giants are going to be working overtime to grind out yards on the ground against the Bears number one run defense. Fortunately for Eli and company they will face the leagues 28th ranked pass defense that has registered just two sacks in three games this season. Eli may get hurried from time to time, but he’ll have a better ground game than Green Bay did Monday night and should be able to effectively use some play-action to find his targets.

RB-Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
This kid is carrying quite the load for the Niners offense; through the team’s first three games he has 74 touches (52 rush and 22 receptions). And while he still looks fresh and ready, I say ride him while he’s hot and before he wears down. The Falcons are ranked 12th against the run this season, but they are giving up a whopping 5.1 yards per carry and have already surrendered two plays of 40 yards or more. Gore is a workhorse that’s ready to run wild.

RB-Maurice Jones-Drew. Jacksonville Jaguars
MJD loves to play against the Colts especially at home (Sunday’s matchup is in Jacksonville) In his last two starts at home against Peyton and company the Jaguars running back has averaged 151 yards of offense. With those kind of numbers MJD is a must-start!

WR-Mark Clayton, St. Louis Rams
Maybe all the kid needed was a new uniform with new colors. Clayton had not been this productive since his 2006 season in Baltimore, but since he’s become a Ram he has risen from the dusts. Clayton already has 17 receptions and two touchdowns this season and Sunday will be facing the Seahawks 30th ranked pass defense that has already been torched 14 times for 20 yards or more. I like Clayton’s chances of breaking a long one.

WR-Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins
In three games this season the Patriots defense has been torched by the opposing teams’ flankers for 22 receptions, 287 yards, and two touchdowns. After watching Marshall dominate the Jets secondary for most of last Sunday Night, I don’t see the Patriot 25th ranked pass defense having any shot of slowing him down. A buck and a quarter with at least one visit to the end zone sounds about right.

TE-John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks tight end is the team’s leading receiver and most targeted receiving option this season. It’s really no surprise with the savvy veteran Matt Hasselbeck under center; an experienced and capable field general knows where to go with the ball. On Sunday matched up against the Rams 24th ranked pass defense, Carlson looks like a solid play for 60 yards and a score.

PK-Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers and Ravens square off on Sunday in what will undoubtedly be a bruising battle between the two clubs. Points will be at a premium and both clubs are very likely to be very stingy in the red-zone. I expect to see Reed put in a busy day of work on Sunday.

My Previous starts

Week 1 (Total points-77)
QB Donovan McNabb (WAS)
RB Matt Forte (CHI)
RB Carnell Williams (TB)
WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
WR Jabar Gaffney (DEN)
TE Zach Miller (OAK)
K Joe Nedney (SF)

Week 2 (Total points-68)
QB Michael Vick (PHI)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
WR Nate Washington (TEN)
WR Greg Jennings (GB)
TE Chris Cooley (WAS)
K Nick Folk (NYJ)

Week 3 (Total points-87)
QB Tony Romo (DAL)
RB Darren McFadden
RB Ray Rice (BAL)
WR Austin Collie (IND)
WR Dez Bryant (DAL)
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
K Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

FSH: THAT'S MY TAKE

September 29th, 2010

That's My Take

Quarterback Kyle Orton: Fantasy Phenom or Mile High Mirage

There’s no doubt that Kyle Orton is more unlikely to be any fantasy owner’s first choice at quarterback, but this season you could do a whole lot worse and not be any more wrong. Don’t worry I won’t parade around and sing his high praises as the second coming of Elway, but the former Boilermaker is quickly changing the opinion of many of today’s fantasy owners. Nothing more than a mid-round fantasy back-up quarterback, Orton is raising some eyebrows.

If anyone would have told me that the Bronco’s quarterback Kyle Orton would have more passing yards than Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees after three weeks I would have told that person to find a bed and lie down. They must be sick.

What is sick is Orton’s 359 yards passing per game, his 68% completion percentage, and his 21 fantasy points per game thus far this season. His four touchdown passes are nothing to jump up and shout about yet, but when you consider the full package Orton is playing at a high level and there seems to be much room for improvement. We must also take note that his most potent and best scoring threat was traded in the offseason, once his gets the new horses fully broken in the scoring numbers could change; scary!

So what has been the biggest difference, why the jump into the fantasy scoring stratosphere this season? It’s not easy to put a finger on just one thing, but really should anyone be surprised?

It’s easy to say Kyle Orton has yet to reach his full potential as a passer since arriving in the NFL. After four lack-luster seasons in Chicago where he managed basically a run-oriented offense, it appeared the NFL had seen all it would see of Orton as a signal caller; this was until his arrival to the Mile High City.

When you trace his steps Orton has always been a capable quarterback, but capable of so much more we are finding out. Back in the days of Purdue, we saw some of the Orton we are seeing today. What was missing for Kyle in Chicago; he had no real deep threats or playmakers, and the offense lacked any kind of imagination.

In 2009 head coach Josh McDaniels and the Bronco’s traded their franchise quarterback away for the services of Orton. On the surface it didn’t really appear to be their first choice; something about a kid in New England, but it certainly appears to be working out just fine for the folks in Denver.

Since he arrived in Denver Orton has done played pretty well under center, but without question he’s elevated his game this season. With a full year under McDaniel’s tutelage, he’s grown at the position and now has full command of the system.

Sure we are talking about Kyle Orton who is a veteran in his sixth year, but who says you can’t teach a not-so-old dog new tricks. Let us also not forget that McDaniels is the same coach and then offensive coordinator who took Brady to new fantasy heights in 2007 (50 touchdowns, 4,800 yards passing). He also resurrected an irrelevant and non-existent Matt Cassel who had not started a game since high school, to the tune of 21 touchdown passes and 11 wins in 2008.

And that’s the fantasy secret here that is no mirage my friends. We are just now seeing what Kyle Orton is capable of when in the right system, in the right situation, and with the right weapons. What Orton currently has could certainly be classified as a cast of misfits, but a group of unheralded and perhaps under-rated and very talented receivers might be more fitting.

With second year receiver Eddie Royal (91 catches as a rookie) he slot and a pair lanky and very athletic receivers (Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney) on the outside, the Broncos and Orton truly have a nice compliment of pass catchers to distribute the ball too. They also drafted a very nice looking up and coming talent in rookie Demaryius Thomas (arm injury).

It’s no coincidence that this array of weaponry is a huge contributing factor to Orton early passing success in 2010. With Lloyd (leads the team with 339 yards), Royal (17 receptions-tied for team lead), and Gaffney (leads team with 26 targets) each playing significant roles in the passing attack it makes it difficult for opposing defenses to know where to key. One of Orton’s strongest assets has been his decision making, couple this with his accuracy and he is one of the leagues top passers (97.4 passer rating-7th in the NFL) in this early 2010 campaign.

The Bronco’s are without their best ball carrier (Knowshon Moreno-hamstring) and likely won’t see him for another week or two. As long as the running game is second best, the team will likely continue to lean heavily on its’ flourishing and effective passing game.

Even with the team’s current struggles in the red-zone don’t expect Josh McDaniels to veer too far from what’s working, but rather focus more on finding ways of getting his ball club into the end-zone. And that’s good news for Orton who has benefited greatly through the air this season. His four touchdowns thus far are rather pedestrian and a far cry from a fantasy phenom, but leave it to McDaniels to correct that.

As the team works toward finding a better balance I expect to see Orton’s success continue and actually help the team find the answers they seek. He won’t be posting 50 plus passes very often, but in the neighborhood of 40 looks realistic and only means good things for fantasy owners.

Some experts believe success on the ground can open up things in the air, but maybe for Kyle Orton and the Denver Broncos some mile high magic in the air can create some space for the running game. One way or the other Orton looks like the real deal in Denver.

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 28th, 2010


David’s Daily Digest

My Fantasy Notes:

KYLE ORTON POSTS A HUGE NUMBER ON SUNDAY
The Bronco’s signal caller passed for 476 yards and a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts in the team’s 27-13 loss on Sunday. Orton used 57 passes on the day to post his huge numbers, but struggles in the red-zone kept the Bronco’s off the board limiting his overall production.
My Fantasy Read:
Without a healthy Knowshon Moreno the Broncos may struggle to find their ground game, but their 2010 passing game is no anomaly. It’s a safe bet to expect Orton to continue his flourishing ways in the short passing game. He may not launch another 57 passes, but he should continue to complete a high percentage, chew up the yards, and the team is bound to improve in the red-zone.

LANCE MOORE HAS BIG DAY IN LOSS TO FALCONS
Without their explosive running back Reggie Bush, the Saints looked to another source for playmaking on Sunday and found wide receiver Lance Moore. Against the Falcons Moore caught six passes for 149 yards and found paydirt twice.
My Fantasy Read:
With Bush out, it’s no surprise that Brees was able to find another go to especially Moore. Remember in 2008 Moore was his main target with 79 receptions and 10 touchdowns. On Sunday Moore led the team with seven targets and should continue to be a regular source of production.

PEYTON HILLIS POUNDS THE RAVENS ON SUNDAY
The Brown’s running back Peyton Hillis became the team’s featured back on Sunday against the Ravens. Hillis carried the ball 22 times for more than 140 yards on the ground against one of the leagues toughest defenses. He also added seven receptions for another 36 yards.
My Fantasy Read:
Hillis basically proved he can be a dependable and impressive every down back. Even when Harrison returns, expect to see Hillis carry the brunt of the load. He should be a dependable fantasy option going forward.

JABAR GAFFNEY FLOURISHES AGAINST THE COLTS
The Bronco’s receiver is no stranger to McDaniel’ system and on Sunday he was a huge benefactor catching 12 passes for 140 yards. It was a breakout game for Gaffney who is tied for the team lead with 17 receptions.
My Fantasy Read:
Gaffney was targeted a team high 14 times on Sunday, This is probably not something he will see too much more of going forward (at least not that many targets in a game), but as the team's passing has success so should Gaffney. He’ll have some value in deeper leagues, but owners may want to hold off rushing to the wires just yet.

FSH: MY WEEKLY FANTASY

September 26th, 2010, Sunday

My Weekly Fantasy

Sunday’s Fantasy Lineup

My Quarterbacks:

In most leagues I didn’t mess around with guessing who could be big this season or where the sleepers might come from, I shot straight for the top and grabbed one of today’s best gunslingers in the pocket. Almost across the board, my top quarterback pick this season is the Packer’s Aaron Rodgers. He has had a couple of solid campaigns and I am looking for bigger numbers in 2010. He doesn’t play until Monday night, but I have no concerns with Rodgers and the Packer’s offense matching up against the number one run defense. With the weapons Rodgers has he will undoubtedly take advantage of the leagues 25th ranked pass defense (Bears). In one of my other leagues I also have Drew Brees under center. It’s not been his most productive start this season, but today without a healthy Reggie Bush to help anchor the run game I expect the Saints to air it out.

My Running Backs:

What is likely the norm in many fantasy leagues I have a slight overage and a few choices to make in the backfield. In one of my PPR league the Bear’s running Matt Forte (12 receptions in 2010) has been anchoring my backfield and this week he looks solid play against the Packer’s 24th ranked run defense. Another pick for week three is the Bill’s running back Marshawn Lynch. The Bills square off with the Patriots (ranked 26th against the run) today and with a change at quarterback, I would expect to see the run game become today’s focus. In a couple of leagues out of necessity I will be starting the Charger’s Mike Tolbert (not recommended). He’s been a nice surprise for the Chargers with two rushing touchdowns this season, but could struggle some today against the Seahawks run defense that allows only 2 yards per carry. The Raiders have a good matchup this week against the Cardinals (ranked 31st against the run), so I will be starting Darren McFadden who is on a tear averaging 150 yards of offense per game.

My Wide Receivers

This is one position where I was lucky enough to have some great choices and this week it will be like a child standing at the counter in a candy store. With Mike Vick in and out of the pocket all day I like my chances with wideout Jeremy Maclin (two straight games with a score). Mike Sim-Walker started slow this season with no catches in week one and a quiet first half last week. Last Sunday against the Chargers Sims-Walker finished strong with more than 100 yards receiving and a score. The Eagles have a few soft spots in the secondary, so this Jaguar could run free. Without both of their starting corners healthy, the Bronco’s secondary is going to have a lot of trouble containing Peyton Manning and company today. One recipient who should benefit greatly will be wide receiver Austin Collie. I like his chances for another big day and at least a score. I have too much depth to get him in the lineup today, but a receiver of note that I like is the Cowboy’s Dez Bryant. The Texans secondary has been torched this season and this kid looked very good a week ago.