FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 11th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

My Fantasy Rankings

With Fantasy drafts right around the corner it’s time to start ranking our players and taking a look at where we’ll be looking for value.

Let’s start with the quarterbacks;

My Top 20

1.Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Andrew Luck

6. Derek Carr

7. Cam Newton

8. Russell Wilson

9. Kirk Cousins

10. Ben Roethlisberger

I have the big boys on top, Rodgers and Brady are steady and just have too many weapons this season. Brees is Mr. Consistent with 5,000 yards until he isn’t. I’m a little high on Luck as long as he returns to the field for week 1, if that changes so will his ranking. With all of the weapons he has, I have to bump Big Ben into the top 10.

11. Philip Rivers

12. Marcus Mariota

13. Jameis Winston

14. Dak Prescott

15. Matthew Stafford

16. Eli Manning

17. Carson Wentz

18. Tyrod Taylor

19. Andy Dalton

20. Carson Palmer

Rivers and Mariota just miss my top 10, but don’t be surprised to see either break into the group; plenty of weapons of their own. I’m a little low on Stafford, but losing Megatron will hurt a little this season. I have Palmer even lower; hard to bet against father-time, but I won’t be surprised to see him bounce back this season and finish as a low-end QB1 (in deeper leagues). Taylor is interesting to me since he’s been pretty consistent, but the Bills want to run so it’s hard to imagine he’ll have the volume this season to elevate him as a QB1.

Notables beyond the top 20, that could still crack this list are Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and even Jay Cutler. These guys you may be able to stream to fill your byes, but play the match-up and one more streamer that could offer fantasy relevance is quarterback Brian Hoyer; reunited with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 9th, 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 7th 2017

Monday Night Edition

On the Cover this Week

Who are you Drafting at No.1?

In most drafts, except for maybe two quarterback leagues, at the top of the list of this year’s fantasy drafts are last years running back studs; the Cardinals David Johnson, the Steelers Le’Veon Bell, and the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott. The current trend is any one of these three could go number one in your draft and there’s plenty of argument to support all.

Even running backs LeSean McCoy (14 total touchdowns in 2016) and Melvin Gordon (over 1,400 total yards in 13 games last season) could warrant such a high consideration in this season. Ah yes, decisions, decisions.

And don’t think it gets any easier.

Although the trend appears to be focused on the backfield, wide receivers Julio Jones (2nd in yards receiving in 2016), Odell Beckham Jr (3rd in receptions in 2016), and of course Antonio Brown (2nd in receptions in 2016) are getting their share of love in fantasy drafts. And why not, these studs can put up ridiculous numbers on any given Sunday.

And let’s not forget AJ Green (964 yards receiving in 10 games last season) and Mike Evans (12 touchdowns in 2016); these boys will be back again for a big season in 2017.

Whether you are looking at any of these studs in your coming drafts or have your sites focused on some other, if you are sitting in the top spot of your leagues pending draft the big question is, who are you taking at Number one?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 6th, 2017

Sunday Night Edition

Early Round Draft Strategy

As is it does every year, draft strategy changes and this season fantasy owners will need to be as savvy as ever. Not only do we (as I am a fantasy owner as well) need to be savvy, but our strategy will need to be ever evolving throughout our pending drafts. One thing we all learn in fantasy drafts, someone is always going to reach and someone is always start the early run.

This season I will be playing in several money leagues once again and will likely engage in several NFL public leagues to keep my skills sharp as a dull blade.

Looking at my first scheduled 10-team league draft this coming Saturday, this is a QB-heavy scoring league; one point per yard, so the signal callers rack up the points.

Unlike most of the other leagues I will play in this season, but similar to QB leagues, this league the top tier quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) will be premium. Because we only play one quarterback though, drafting strategies and trends will in many ways resemble what you might see in standard or common PPR (½ point or full point) draft.

In this format, if you are sitting at the top of the draft it is prudent to target one of the top skill plays like running backs David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Your position puts you at the bottom of the 2nd round in a traditional snake-draft, so taking a quarterback too early will leave you bottom feeding (finding less value) for your number one receiver and number one running back. This especially hurts when you are passing on an Ezekiel Elliott and/or Julio Jones.

For the league I am playing in, typically it might seem too early to grab a quarterback in the first round, but here it makes sense at the tail-end of the 1st. Arms like Brady and Rodgers looked poised for big seasons, and Brees is Mr. 5000 yards, so from the 8th spot on you can still come back with a top 8 receiver or running back at the top of the 2nd round.

There is going to be depth at the skill positions which may lean some of us into taking Brady and/or Rodgers in the late first or early second. Players you could be looking at in the 3rd and 4th rounds (in 10-team leagues) are looking like Lamar Miller, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you pass on a quarterback early, based on current ADP you should be fine waiting until the 5th or 6th to target the next tier of arms (i.e. Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson). Quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Kirk Cousins are going even later.

Unless you are targeting tight end Rob Gronkowski early, there will be value available beyond the early rounds, so fill your backfield early and get your wideouts on the field.

We’re just getting the conversation started with drafts opening up all over and these are just a few of my thoughts of early draft strategy. As the days pass and as drafts are completed I will be sharing more thoughts on strategy and players I like and where I will be taking them.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega