FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Fantasy Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Tyreek Hill, Current ADP 1.04 - the Dolphins dynamic wide receiver has finished 2nd (2022), 6th (2021), and 2nd (2020) in fantasy scoring over the past three seasons. He’s coming off a season with career highs in yards receiving (1,710), receptions (119), and targets (170). He’s an elite WR1 that is going early in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Current ADP 1.08 - the Bills wideout finished the 2022 season as the No.4 fantasy receiver. In his three seasons with the Bills Diggs has the most receptions (tied with Davante Adams) of any receiver with 338 and has averaged more than 160 targets per season. He’s a mid-to-late first rounder in fantasy drafts this season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 27th, 2023
Sunday Afternoon Edition

Draft Day is Here Again

Fantasy football excitement is in the air, as mock drafts churn out like basketball shoes at a Nike factory. Fantasy owners are hitting the magazine stands to pick up their favorite Mag with the latest rankings and player reviews.

As what has become the ritual for many of others who play fantasy, I too have picked up my favorite fantasy magazine or two. With a little over a week left before my final four league drafts, I will be busy over the next several days taking notes, highlighting the players I will be coveting, and updating my current password for my favorite sites for fantasy info and knowledge.

There have been a lot of changes this off season, some key player switches, and some interesting developments in the pre-draft fantasy football landscape. As I prepare for my upcoming drafts, I’ll be looking at the Josh Jacobs situation (his return to the Raiders), the effect of Aaron Rodgers on the Jets and their passing game, the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee, and the impact & influence of the Broncos new head coach Sean Payton. These are only a few considerations that will have to be looked at.

While the Fantasy football sites and magazines are a great source of information to cover those topics, your local supermarket is going to be an essential necessity for Draft Day, if you are to have a successful draft.

Some of the keys that will be needed besides your magazines and website addresses should include the following supplies, beer, ice, chips, dips, water, sides, and of course more beer.

I would suggest stocking heavily on cold beverages, should your draft go sideways, they could come in handy. 

Remember Draft Day is supposed to be a fun-filled day and one that you enjoy. Stay calm, trust your notes, and for goodness sakes, enjoy an occasional cold one during the process.

Good luck and Happy drafting.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 26th, 2023
Saturday Evening Edition

Welcome Home Fantasy Football

As it often can happen, real life tends to get in the way when we least expect it and sometimes at the most inconvenient time. But that doesn’t mean we have to pack it up and call it day.

I am a career fantasy football guy. I’ve been playing the game for over 25 years and my love for it today is as strong as the first day we met. The past couple of seasons has provided some real life bumps in the road, but today it’s safe to say we have managed to navigate our way past much of the difficulty.

As a result, unlike the previous few years, 2023 has had more of a familiar and normal feel, most of us have been hoping and waiting for and as it often means, when the days get warm, Fantasy Football is just around the corner.

It’s the height of summer, temperatures are on the rise, and we are in the heart of the Fantasy Football draft season. With two Drafts already under my belt, it’s time for me to heat up those mocks in preparation for the four remaining I have played for the upcoming Labor Day weekend.

There are a lot of familiar faces in new places, the rumor mill is swirling, and plenty of NFL notes to keep me busy for the next 8 days before I draft. Running back Ezekiel Elliot is in New England, running back Josh Jacobs has returned to the Raiders, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has signed with the Titans, and the Jets not only traded for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but they have also signed running back Dalvin Cook.

So what does all of this mean?

It means it’s time to get excited, grab a fantasy mag, start taking notes, and get your popcorn ready, Fantasy Football is here!

If all goes right this season, I’ll be right here to share my fantasy football thoughts & takes, as well as provide my perspective and opinion on anything and everything fantasy relevant!

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition

August 18th, 2019

The Draft Weekend

I’m playing a little catch up here as this past weekend was my annual Draft day weekend marathon. It has become tradition, in this kid’s (I’m not a kid - and don’t ask) neighborhood home leagues to partake in two deep fantasy drafts on the same weekend. We’ve been doing this, a number of years now and it’s been quite the endeavor, but an experience well worth it. 

Preparation & Podcasts

Like every year, leading up to Draft day, I spend a lot of my free time researching and studying, as much as I can and as much as real life will allow (and that’s not much). I pick up the annual fantasy mags for cheat-sheets and rankings, and I print out the various ADPs and rankings from FFC and Fantasy Pros (two of my favorite sites). I also absorb some of the popular fantasy podcasts & shows, sometimes for the insight and analysis, and sometimes for entertainment, and even sometimes to just get me in fantasy draft mode. 

Draft Day Anxiety

When the day arrives, all bets are off, it’s go time and every fantasy owner for themself. The clock winds down to zero and first owner is on the clock; depending on your spot in the draft, you have time to consider you strategy, the direction you will go, zero running backs to start, heavy wide receivers in the opening rounds, early round reaches, or playing it safe. Even the first pick can cause some anxiety or nervous anxiousness, as it will set the tone for your following picks. 

No matter what that first important decision becomes, keep your eye on the prize, be committed to your decision and construct the best fantasy team that’s ever been put together. Believe in your process, stay the course, and go the distance with determination, focus, grit, and if all else fails, flip a coin. We put some much into this day that will define our upcoming season, the good thing this is, one year from today we can do it all over again. 

Draft Day Picks

My 2019 Fantasy Draft weekend has concluded, and for a while on Saturday it seemed all of my picks were all over the place, from my 2nd round Le’Veon Bell selection to my DK Metcalf selection in the 12th round. I doubled down with quarterback Deshaun Watson in both leagues, taking him in 2nd round in one (8 team league) and the 6th round (10 team league) in the other. 

I also locked up wide receiver Chris Godwin in both leagues; 5th round and 7th round. Both Watson and Godwin were targets of mine, as was running back Aaron Jones. These were players I eyed, and made sure I was able to grab without having to reach further than I was comfortable.

The Results

The first day of drafting was the most relaxed and the group enjoyed the time we took, but 8 hours of drafting can take its toll; good thing it’s only once a year. We all started with high hopes, but with the usual conjecture, speculation, unproven analysis, and good natured ribbing with each pick, the draft lasted and lasted. 

At the conclusion of both drafts, my final take on how my teams looked, I was very satisfied with the balance and depth I achieved. Here’s a look at the early rounds of both.

8-Team League

1.Ertz, Zach

2.Watson, Deshaun

3.Johnson, David

4.Cook, Dalvin

5.Jones, Aaron

6.Diggs, Stefon

7.Godwin, Chris

8.Winston, Jameis

9.White, James

10.Woods, Robert

Notes: This is tight-end league (.2 pts/yard), so Ertz was early, but the second TE off the board. I went heavy with RBs early that I feel with contribute in the pass game very well. This is also a Superflex league which is why I snagged Winston early in the 8th; I think he’s going to be top 10 this season.

10-Team League

1.Odell Beckham Jr

2.Le’Veon Bell

3.Aaron Jones

4.David Montgomery

5.Chris Godwin

6.Deshaun Watson

7.Robby Anderson

8.Vance McDonald

9.Will Fuller

10.Kalen Ballage

Notes: Odell fell to me in the 9th slot of the 1st, so had to grab him, came back with Bell in the 2nd; love his potential heavy volume. I am high on Godwin, so I took him in the 5th and followed him with Watson in the sixth; I think Watson could be top 3 this year. I like McDonald’s potential this season with Bell and Brown out of Pittsburgh, and my Fuller selection is points on points with Watson.

That’s My Draft Day Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

July 26th, 2018
Thursday Edition

FANTASY 

FOOTBALL

IS 

BACK

It's the Summer of 2018 and it's been really hot of late, but one good thing, when the temperatures rise, that can only mean one thing, that the Fantasy Football Season is back! Training camps are opening up all over the country as 32 teams prepare the upcoming long and grueling task of chasing the Lombardi trophy.

And like those professional franchises that comprise the NFL, all over the country, the average Joe and his 9 closet friends are gearing up for what could be an epic 2018 fantasy football season!

The heat is turning up sports fans and this summer is grueling, but with the new season kicking off in less than a week it's time to chill and relax, sooo...

Keep calm people, fantasy football is back and it's time to get your popcorn ready, once again.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 6th, 2017

Sunday Night Edition

Early Round Draft Strategy

As is it does every year, draft strategy changes and this season fantasy owners will need to be as savvy as ever. Not only do we (as I am a fantasy owner as well) need to be savvy, but our strategy will need to be ever evolving throughout our pending drafts. One thing we all learn in fantasy drafts, someone is always going to reach and someone is always start the early run.

This season I will be playing in several money leagues once again and will likely engage in several NFL public leagues to keep my skills sharp as a dull blade.

Looking at my first scheduled 10-team league draft this coming Saturday, this is a QB-heavy scoring league; one point per yard, so the signal callers rack up the points.

Unlike most of the other leagues I will play in this season, but similar to QB leagues, this league the top tier quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) will be premium. Because we only play one quarterback though, drafting strategies and trends will in many ways resemble what you might see in standard or common PPR (½ point or full point) draft.

In this format, if you are sitting at the top of the draft it is prudent to target one of the top skill plays like running backs David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Your position puts you at the bottom of the 2nd round in a traditional snake-draft, so taking a quarterback too early will leave you bottom feeding (finding less value) for your number one receiver and number one running back. This especially hurts when you are passing on an Ezekiel Elliott and/or Julio Jones.

For the league I am playing in, typically it might seem too early to grab a quarterback in the first round, but here it makes sense at the tail-end of the 1st. Arms like Brady and Rodgers looked poised for big seasons, and Brees is Mr. 5000 yards, so from the 8th spot on you can still come back with a top 8 receiver or running back at the top of the 2nd round.

There is going to be depth at the skill positions which may lean some of us into taking Brady and/or Rodgers in the late first or early second. Players you could be looking at in the 3rd and 4th rounds (in 10-team leagues) are looking like Lamar Miller, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you pass on a quarterback early, based on current ADP you should be fine waiting until the 5th or 6th to target the next tier of arms (i.e. Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson). Quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Kirk Cousins are going even later.

Unless you are targeting tight end Rob Gronkowski early, there will be value available beyond the early rounds, so fill your backfield early and get your wideouts on the field.

We’re just getting the conversation started with drafts opening up all over and these are just a few of my thoughts of early draft strategy. As the days pass and as drafts are completed I will be sharing more thoughts on strategy and players I like and where I will be taking them.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 5th, 2017

Early Saturday Morning Edition

Saturday Fantasy Notes

Talking Fantasy Draft

We’ve officially reached the new season with the Hall of Fame game concluded; the 2017 season is underway and it’s time to start talking fantasy football.

The Consensus Pick-Six (Average ADP)

After reviewing several ADP sites and participating in many, many mock-drafts, unequivocally the consensus top six draft picks have been running backs David Johnson (20 touchdowns in 2016), Le’Veon Bell (1,884 total yards in 12 games), Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 yards rushing last season), and wide receivers Antonio Brown (106 receptions in 2016), Julio Jones (1,409 yards receiving in 14 games), and Odell Beckham Jr (10 touchdowns last season). My official position, I’m not advocating when to take these players or in this particular order, but I do agree with their value and could argue for taking them where they are currently falling. The interesting pick is sitting in the 5th or 6th spot, is there someone else that you might value before this group of six; of course league format and scoring come into play when considering.

“Living on the Edge”

If you are following the trend in the current mock-drafts going on and watercooler conversations taking place, these are the names that are being discussed; running backs LeSean McCoy (14 touchdowns last season), Melvin Gordon (1,416 total yards in 13 games in 2016), and wide receivers AJ Green (averaged 10 targets per game last season) and Mike Evans (12 touchdowns in 2016). There’s great value here in this group and nothing wrong with taking any earlier than the six pick. Anywhere beyond the sixth slot and these guys are good to go.

These are the early numbers for current fantasy league drafts that I am seeing and hearing, where the trends change and where you’ll have to savvy this season will start in the second round where there’s a log jam of interchangeable options fantasy owners are going to have to weigh and consider.

“A Call to Arms”

Quarterbacks will be deep this season, so there’s no rush to grab one too early, but if you are in the market the gold standards in fantasy are still Aaron Rodgers (40 passing touchdowns in 2016), Drew Brees (5,000 passing yards for the 5th time in his career), and 5-time Superbowl Champion Tom Brady (28 passing touchdowns in 12 games). Beyond the Big Three, there will be plenty of fish left in the market as you make your way into the third and fourth round.

If you are targeting a 2nd tier arm for fantasy, you should be safe sitting on this pick for a few rounds further, there should still be good value here. Quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr are not coming off the board until the 4th and 5th round (depending on the size of your league) and many as late as the 8th and 9th; so plan your draft accordingly.

Your Fantasy Draft is coming, are you ready for some (Fantasy) Football?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVIDS DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

August 24th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

BAR IS OPEN

Fantasy Football is Back Baby!

Not only is the fantasy season here, but with one draft already in the books I can say that the 2014 Fantasy Football season is underway. If you are like me, then you know this is probably one of the most exciting times during the fantasy season; draft week.

For myself, I really love the game and nothing gets me more revved up like the fantasy draft; an afternoon-long draft filled with great sportsman camaraderie, the enjoyment of tilting back cold beverages with friends, and executing some skillful fantasy selections certain to carry me to fantasy glory. It’s really the thrill of watching hours and weeks of studying, researching, and preparation all come together in a single afternoon; carefully planning the right menu, with the appropriate drink (my choice is always an ice-cold Stella-she’s one lady who always treats a fella right), and the perfect draft. And any draft you can complete faster than expected and be able to enjoy a few more cold ones after (with plenty of post-draft commentary), now that’s the perfect draft.

And because I love fantasy football so much, I am sure I will once again play in no fewer than 6-8 season-long leagues. I mention the words season long, because yes I have discovered the weekly games so don’t get me started there. In fact, as I type away with my thoughts about fantasy football, the upcoming season, etc., I am engaged in draft number two; a 10-team PPR league with one IDP spot.

If you have yet to join a league or if your league has yet to draft, make sure you do your necessary due diligence to have a successful draft. My advice is read the magazines, listen to the podcasts, browse the various sites, and gather all the necessary information (stats, ADPs, etc.) you need to make your best informed picks.

While we all need the numbers to help us sort through the endless charts and list of players to be selected, don’t overlook two important tips; know the league scoring and who you are playing against. Since we are on the theory of smart drafting and preparation, you should also keep in mind these additional points; it’s not only important to know who to select, but when to pull the trigger.

We have waited seven long months for this day to return, so the last thing we want to have happen is a poor showing on draft day. I am no genius when it comes to fantasy football, but I love playing and take lots of notes. As I go along this week with my several drafts yet to be completed, I will gladly share my thoughts, insights and results.

Good luck this season and draft well my friend.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st 2011, Wednesday

Back on Track

The Next Stop; Fantasy Football 2011

Although it is highly unlikely, but for those of you that have not been keeping up with current events, the NFL is back on track and Fantasy Football 2011 is here. And actually, the NFL has been on the tracks heading toward Kickoff 2011 for several weeks now.

With the Preseason set to enter its’ fourth and final week, it’s time for those of you that have yet to do so, get your fantasy draft done. It’s been an entire summer of little conversation and non-climatic events that have brought most football fans and the entire fantasy world to this cataclysmic frenzy that is final Fantasy Draft Weekend.

If you are one of those lucky folks preparing for your league’s draft, it’s time to break out the cheat-sheets, check those injury reports, and review those player rankings; this is no time to get sloppy, every pick counts.

With the final week of preseason slated to begin in less than 24 hours, it’s time to get caught up with my 2011 player rankings, fantasy predictions, and my best analysis of fantasy studs, sleepers, and those you want to forget.

Stay with me all season and we’ll be bouncing fantasy takes, spins, and rumors back and forth as we enjoy fantasy football 2011.

Good luck to everyone who plays and for those that don’t, you are missing out! What are you waiting for!

By David Ortega

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